NCAA Tourney Thread

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

Okafor is so good offensively you can't pass him up if you are picking first. You just have to hope he can develop defensively. Guy has unlimited post moves, he showed yesterday some handling skills, and I think he can even develop a face up game. For me it goes Okafor, Russell, Towns.

[TheFuture]

Strengths: Big, powerful body with huge hands, palms the ball easily which allows him to control rebounds in traffic ... Polished, skilled back to the basket scorer with a variety of moves ... Smooth for his size, solid rebounder, very good IQ, plays to his strengths, knows his limitations and doesn't try to do things that he can't do ... NBA body and strength, quick feet for a player with such a big frame ... Has great moves and counters, the footwork of an NBA vet, soft touch around basket ... Heady passer out of double teams ... Understands how to establish position and knows how to use his body, never rushes his move and plays with great pace and patience ... savvy beyond his years for a young post player, rebounds his area ...

Weaknesses: Not a great athlete, rebounder, or shot blocker ... Lack of athleticism and ability to be a game changer on the defensive end limits his upside ... Has trouble moving his feet in pick and roll situations ... Not a great shooter and doesn't offer much in terms of pick and pop situations ... Doesn't rebound out of his area ... Doesn't impact the game defensively ... Has problems finishing over length due to the fact that he's not an explosive athlete ... Conditioning has been an issue, though he has shown solid dedication to improving his body ... Lack of athleticism will hurt him at the NBA level ... Close to being a finished product, lacks great upside, will be dominant in college ...

Overall: Has been described by some pundits as having amongst the best set of post skills ever seen on the high school level ... Dominant high school player who will be a dominant college player likely for a year ... Polished low post scorer, but doesn't project as a dominant scorer or rebounder at the pro level ...

^This^

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

That's what I see in Okafor too, except I don't think he'll have a problem with finishing over (or through) length. He uses his body extremely well in that regard.

[TheFuture]

That's what I see in Okafor too, except I don't think he'll have a problem with finishing over (or through) length. He uses his body extremely well in that regard.

He does in college, yes, but what about against the Noahs, Gasols, D. Jordans of the pro level? I think in today's league you need multi-faceted players to make any serious noise. Okafor is simply too one dimensional for me.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

He's shooting 66% from the field using mostly post moves and not really many put backs or dunks. That's an unheard of percentage from the field. It shows how much touch he has around the basket. I don't see how he goes from 66% in college to significantly below 55% which is still probably the high mark or close to it in the NBA. He has a wide array of post moves where he's gonna get a good look more than he doesn't. The percentage he's putting up in college is simply unheard of for a primary low post scorer. The top FG% guys in the NBA that do close to that pretty much only dunk and get put backs. If he's a one trick pony, he's a freakin Clydesdale.


He's 6'11, 270. That's heavier than most of the C's in the league so they aren't just going to be able to push him around like a Dieng or AP. If he had a size or length issue I could understand the not a dominant scorer in the NBA remark, but he has the same or bigger measurables than most of the NBA. What tricks can they really do to shut down someone who is just as big as them and who can beat them in 12 different ways just with his back to the basket? Great post players use your chosen defensive position against you and I think he'll be doing the same once he adjusts.

At the end of the day I don't understand how someone can watch him and think it is a college mirage that will be easy to contain just because NBA guys are bigger. Utah should be a good game to watch as they have a legit 7' Center.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

A few additional thoughts on Okafor...

- Cam, Mikkeman might be able to find something more than me, but it's tough to get a ton of individual defensive stats on college players without a subscription to one of the advanced stat providers.

- That being said, DX had a write-up on him at the end of January that featured his defensive impact. His rim protection was actually really good, holding opposing match-ups to 45 FG% at the rim. However, that was still relatively early in the season with some cupcakes on the schedule.

- Another data point is that Duke is ranked 44th in team defense this season versus 116th last season. I have to believe Jahil has been part of the reason they have improved. He's also part of the reason they aren't great though either.

- My own eye test suggests that he's actually pretty solid at the rim because he knows how to wall up and make himself big. Because he's tough to put a shoulder into a make space, he's a difficult guy to finish over. Others tend to bounce off him versus the other way around. Pick and roll is a different story. He seems very reluctant to come out, which would allow great mid-range shooters like Chris Paul and Steph Curry to have field day against him.

- I get the Jefferson vs. Okafor comparison, but Jahil is bigger, stronger, and has better footwork in my opinion. And while Jefferson has a slick low-post game, he's never been very efficient. He doesn't draw much contact and tends to settle for a fair amount of contested mid-range jumpers.

- I DO agree though that if we get Okafor, we better get ready to make him a centerpiece of the offense. You simply don't draft a guy like that and not immediately look to get him the ball inside early and often. Somehow Bird thrived with McHale and Parish; Drexler with Hakeem; and Kobe with Shaq. It is possible to have a dominant post presence along with a high-scoring wing. There is precedent.

- Another stat I can't seem to find but would be interesting is if Okafor has a Pek-like effect on team rebounding, meaning he doesn't grab a ton himself, but he seals off so well that it allows others (e.g. Justice Winsow) to board well.

We can only hope we are fortunate enough to have the dilemma of whether to take Okafor or not.

[A Friendly Flatulence [enjin:8907904]]

After watching the last game I think he will indeed be the #1 pick, there is alot to like and he likely suffered from the being the number 1 prospect for so long where he gets nit-picked by everyone. At this point I will be happy with any of the top 3 prospects. I'm just ready to figure out where we land

[ahughes53 [enjin:6639223]]

A few additional thoughts on Okafor...

- Cam, Mikkeman might be able to find something more than me, but it's tough to get a ton of individual defensive stats on college players without a subscription to one of the advanced stat providers.

- That being said, DX had a write-up on him at the end of January that featured his defensive impact. His rim protection was actually really good, holding opposing match-ups to 45 FG% at the rim. However, that was still relatively early in the season with some cupcakes on the schedule.

- Another data point is that Duke is ranked 44th in team defense this season versus 116th last season. I have to believe Jahil has been part of the reason they have improved. He's also part of the reason they aren't great though either.

- My own eye test suggests that he's actually pretty solid at the rim because he knows how to wall up and make himself big. Because he's tough to put a shoulder into a make space, he's a difficult guy to finish over. Others tend to bounce off him versus the other way around. Pick and roll is a different story. He seems very reluctant to come out, which would allow great mid-range shooters like Chris Paul and Steph Curry to have field day against him.

- I get the Jefferson vs. Okafor comparison, but Jahil is bigger, stronger, and has better footwork in my opinion. And while Jefferson has a slick low-post game, he's never been very efficient. He doesn't draw much contact and tends to settle for a fair amount of contested mid-range jumpers.

- I DO agree though that if we get Okafor, we better get ready to make him a centerpiece of the offense. You simply don't draft a guy like that and not immediately look to get him the ball inside early and often. Somehow Bird thrived with McHale and Parish; Drexler with Hakeem; and Kobe with Shaq. It is possible to have a dominant post presence along with a high-scoring wing. There is precedent.

- Another stat I can't seem to find but would be interesting is if Okafor has a Pek-like effect on team rebounding, meaning he doesn't grab a ton himself, but he seals off so well that it allows others (e.g. Justice Winsow) to board well.

We can only hope we are fortunate enough to have the dilemma of whether to take Okafor or not.

I actually posted a DX video on Okafor's matchup with Kaminsky. It's really easy to find if you search either player, I suggest looking it up. It actually showed Kaminsky not allowing Okafor to get good rebounding position. From that one video, it would appear that some of his rebounding "woes" are positional/effort related. From that alone, I wouldn't expect him to have a huge impact on the rest of the team's rebounding.

[MikkeMan]

Q or Mikkeman, can we get some analytics on just how bad Okafor's defense is? From my eyes only, he looks like he gets finished on often, especially by guards attacking him in P&R situations. And I have to believe his opponent's % at the rim is too high whereas his shot-blocking % is putrid. Both of which would support my claim that Okafor does NOT alter shots.

PS: Anyone can fact check or disprove me. I'm working at the moment.

Cam, unfortunately it seems that there doesn't exist yet much advanced stats about college basketball. (at least basketball reference doesn't have them) So it is not so easy to analyze how good (or bad) Okafor is in defense. But your comment about his shot blocking % is at least correct. Also his defensive rebounding % is pretty bad. (his offensive rebounding % is elite level)

Here is some comparison to other bigs that already play in NBA and we are pretty familiar of. :)

Adreian Payne DRB% 21.3 BLK% 5.8 (college career averages)
Anthony Bennett DRB% 21.8 BLK% 4.6
Gorgui Dieng DRB% 19.8 BLK% 10.6 (college career averages)
Justin Hamilton DRB% 15.3 BLK% 4.7 (just LSU year averages)
Robbie Hummel DRB% 21.2 BLK% 4.0 (average over last two years)
Jahlil Okafor DRB% 18.4 BLK% 4.5

So those who were worried about Payne's rebounding and shot blocking based on college stats should be even more worried about Okafor's numbers.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I thought Okafor's defense at the rim last night was fine. He walls up and stays on his feet, which is why he doesn't get a ton of blocks. But he bothered a lot of interior shots this way while avoiding foul trouble for the most part.

I think he is such a tour de force offensively that the teams he's played on simply can't afford for him to be in foul trouble, so he's almost trained himself not to be too aggressive crashing the glass or challenging shots. Those habits will be hard to break when he goes into the NBA.