LST packing for home - Wolves vs Jazz GDT

[thedoper]

Playing off the ball on the defensive responsibilities next to KG will likely help Towns a bit with the fouling. These were all issues that were well known about his game, but I am glad that he is getting a wake up call. There is a long road before a substantive contribution from this kid, but there do seem to be some fantastic raw tools there. I love his fire, which should be an area where him and KG see eye to eye.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Good breakdown LST.

The fouling situation isn't going to get any easier for Towns, as veteran NBA officials terrorize rookie big men. He will NEVER get the benefit of the doubt until well past the halfway point of his rookie year, if at all next season. It's going to be an issue.

While a Towns-KG-Wiggins-Martin/LaVine-Rubio starting 5 looks pretty good on paper, we have to remember that 2 or 3 of those guys are still higher on the potential meter than the results meter. And KG and Rubio are super good complementary players, not "carry the team on their back" guys.

The bottom-line is this: Anyone that has dreams of this team competing for a playoff spot next year (Tim, I'm looking at you!) is doing just that: Dreaming.

Yep, not in the West. In the East I could easily see it.

You guys need to look at me too...I'm one of those dreamers. These are the factors that take us to the playoffs, ranked in order of likelihood.

Very likely:
1) Wiggins, LaVine and Payne make the kind of leap NBA players regularly make in their second years, and Shabazz, Dieng and maybe even Bennett show the kind of progress NBA players usually make in their third years. This phenomenon is well documented, and to get big improvement from 5-6 key rotation players adds up to huge improvement in wins.
2) Rubio has a season where he doesn't suffer a season-ending injury, and he continues or improves on the incredible on/off stats he has shown in prior seasons.
3) Towns and Jones give us the kind of modest backup minutes a lottery pick (in this case a #1) and another first rounder usually provide...not game-changers, but at least an improvement over the journeymen they are replacing.

Likely:
1) KG shows us what most of us thought last year, that his "knee injury" was strategic rather than real, and he gives us the kind of leadership and performance he exhibited in five well-played games last year for 60 games this year. I didn't see practice yesterday, but reports were that he was going 100%, and Flip has said he expects him to even play some BTB's this year. He certainly is paying him like he expects it.

2) Bjelica plays more like 28-year-old Euroleague MVP than an NBA rookie, and provides valuable depth off the bench.

3) LaVine's added maturity allows Flip to start him at SG, and Kevin Martin becomes one of the most prolific bench scorers in the league


Less likely:
1) Pekovic's surgery eliminated the pain he has experienced with a bone spur rubbing against his tendon, and he only misses games due to his normal nuisance injuries...calf bruises, etc. Plus, with him and Rubio both healthy, he returns to the 54% shooting he has shown every year except last, and he returns to being a 17 and 9 guy. His health allows Flip to develop Towns at a pace more conducive to the level he is at right now.
2) Although Flip continues to be our coach, he shows that he is not totally pig-headed and listens to his critics who question his disdain for the 3-pointer. He loosens the reins on guys like Wiggins, LaVine. Towns, Payne, Muhammad, Jones, Bjelica, the other new guy we traded for and even AB if he plays, while allowing Martin and Rubio to maintain their 3-point pace. The Wolves end up in the middle of the pack in 3-point attempts with perhaps a lower than average success percentage...the combination of which greatly improves our scoring efficiency.

8 things that can theoretically greatly improve this team. If any 6 of them happen, we are in the playoff hunt.

Tim, when do we need to tee up the playoffs bandwagon thread to see who's with us?

The jump comes in year 3 not 2. You're off by 1 year. Lavine and Wiggins will get better, but as you can see from Lavine's summer league play it's not a big jump yet. It's continued building on his rookie season with still some inconsistencies and habits that need to be worked out. Year three is when guys "are who we think they are". So this year Bazz and Dieng will solidify who they are as NBA players most likely and Wiggins and Lavine will still show they have areas they can continue to improve. Wiggins is special though so he may break through this year, but the typical jump is year three. Sophomore year is usually a slumping year (think Dieng last year) not a jumping year.

Do you have data on that, khans? I don't, but it seems to me that a lot of guys look totally different in year 2 than year 1, and then take another big step forward in year 3. I don't disagree that Wiggins, LaVine and Payne will still have things they will need to work out this year, but I still maintain that history tells us they
will look much more comfortable on the court this year...and have the results to show it. And I disagree with you on LaVine, as he was terrific Friday night and looked much improved before he cut his hand. Both he and Payne showed a comfort and leadership level that we seldom saw last year.

Durant went from 20 PPG's to 25 in year two to 30 in year 3. AD became a top 3 player last year in his third year. Honestly it comes down to what you evaluate as the leap. Lots of players showed good improvement from year 1 to year 2, but I would argue their stardom was on full display in year 3 (KD, AD, Kobe among others). That's what I consider the real leap. Wiggins can get better, but I don't see a jump in his numbers and we will probably see some drop because he's no longer the only guy on the team. He's back to playing with guys like Martin, Pek, etc.

Good point on Wiggins having more competition for stats this year, but maybe his improvement will come in efficiency and defense, not gross stats. But it seems you are making my point in citing Durant's improvement from year 1 to 2. Here are his second year stats with rookie year in parentheses:

PPG: 25.3 (20.3)
RPG: 6.5 (4.4)
APG: 2.8 (2.4)
FG%: .476 (.430)
3P%: .422 (.288)

And you're right...he made further improvement in year 3. But that's my point. If Wiggins, LaVine and Payne can improve anywhere near what KD did in year 2, and Muhammad, Dieng and AB improve anywhere near what KD did in year 3, the Wolves are going to be very good this year.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I personally hope they make KAT earn the starting role if he is out working and performing better than the rest of the bigs then I'm fine with him starting but just because he went #1 should not be a reason for him starting day one.

J. Cunningham is a FA? I think he is but would you rather have him or Lo Brow?

Very well said, tactical. If Pek is healthy and KAT outplays him in training camp, I would be turning cartwheels to hear Flip announce Karl as the starter on Day 1. I just don't see it happening if Pek is ready to go. KAT looks more like a stretch PF than a C right now (although that will likely change as he develops more strength), and the guy I watched in Vegas didn't look like he is ready to play better than a healthy Pek. If Pek is healthy, much better to let Karl back up both the center and PF positions and not put so much pressure on him from the start.

I agree that rotation decisions need to be made based on who performs better in training camp and who plays better together, not relative draft position or salary.

[Tactical unit]

I got the Summer League pass and from what I have seen in three games Payne is showing more than KAT as far as deserving minutes. I do love KAT though was really happy when MN took him and people just got to remember he's a rookie. He's gonna have holes and weakness in year one, but the tools he displays look like a very valuable and versatile big.

[Monster]

LST I think it's too optimistic to expect all those young players to improve. Its just not realistic. The reality is if half of the guys you listed show reasonable improvement Yey the season was a success. I think it's pretty much expected Wiggins will improve a pretty good leap because he is a top shelf prospect.

Is the Playoffs crazy to think about? Yes and no. Let's see how things shake out with the rest of the offseason. For example right now a team like Dallas could be pretty good or blow up if they have a couple injuries or guys flat out don't contribute much. Right now it's an old team with some questionable guys in terms of what they bring, age or in Matthews injury recovery. in a few weeks we can have a more complete assessment of where our team is (Pek) and what other teams actually have.

[60WinTim]

Wow! Active day on the board, and I was out of the loop...

While we are already on the playoff bandwagon, we should probably wait until we see what the West rosters look like, and maybe even a few preseason games, before enlisting more recruits!

[TheGrey08]

I've always been on the side of "let's not rush to judgment on Payne". I like his toughness and hustle and still he think he can be a nice player for us.

Same. The guy was traded mid season to a team lucky to have 8 healthy bodies. How the hell was he supposed to learn the offense and get into things when they couldn't even practice 5 on 5 lol

[TheGrey08]

Summer League is still pretty damn early in their off season (especially playoff teams) so to me these players are more associated to the previous season than the one coming up as far as performance. Most these guys will look better in 3 months.