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Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:08 pm
by Monster
thedoper wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:We were 3 1/2 games out of the playoffs when RoCo went down at the start of January. And at that time we didn't know that our second highest scorer (Rose) would miss more than half of January's games, and our 2 most reliable PGs (Teague and Tyus), both in the top 5 in the league in assist to turnover ratio, would miss about half the games this month, and Jerryd Bayless would be playing 36 minutes a game.

Be honest. If you had known on January 1 that we would be without so many key players during the month, would you have predicted that we would have actually narrowed the gap by the end of the month to 3 games? My guess is if we had conducted a poll, over 90% of the board would have said the gap would have increased rather than decreased.

So why is it so lonely here on playoff island? Doesn't everyone agree that we have overachieved given the injuries? If the playoff pessimism is based on a belief that our 4 injured players aren't going to play or contribute much the rest of the year (I tend to think Teague is out for the season based on what I am hearing), then I don't disagree...we simply can't continue to compete without 4 key players. But if it's based on a belief that we can't compete even with a full roster, I invite you to reconsider your position. We have closed the gap by a half game with Ryan coaching Bayless, Okogie, Terrell and Canaan...and Tolliver out of position. Does anyone really think we wouldn't be much better with Ryan coaching RoCo, Rose, Tyus and Teague instead? Compare those two groups player by player, and you can't help but understand how amazing this month has been.

Plenty of room here on playoff island...


I'll come to playoff Island. We better have lots of Tequila and limes though because it may get ugly.


I'll join also. Are we able to at least get some pizza out there? Is it really an island or is this thing gonna be some Fyre Festival type stuff?

Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:43 pm
by thedoper
monsterpile wrote:
thedoper wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:We were 3 1/2 games out of the playoffs when RoCo went down at the start of January. And at that time we didn't know that our second highest scorer (Rose) would miss more than half of January's games, and our 2 most reliable PGs (Teague and Tyus), both in the top 5 in the league in assist to turnover ratio, would miss about half the games this month, and Jerryd Bayless would be playing 36 minutes a game.

Be honest. If you had known on January 1 that we would be without so many key players during the month, would you have predicted that we would have actually narrowed the gap by the end of the month to 3 games? My guess is if we had conducted a poll, over 90% of the board would have said the gap would have increased rather than decreased.

So why is it so lonely here on playoff island? Doesn't everyone agree that we have overachieved given the injuries? If the playoff pessimism is based on a belief that our 4 injured players aren't going to play or contribute much the rest of the year (I tend to think Teague is out for the season based on what I am hearing), then I don't disagree...we simply can't continue to compete without 4 key players. But if it's based on a belief that we can't compete even with a full roster, I invite you to reconsider your position. We have closed the gap by a half game with Ryan coaching Bayless, Okogie, Terrell and Canaan...and Tolliver out of position. Does anyone really think we wouldn't be much better with Ryan coaching RoCo, Rose, Tyus and Teague instead? Compare those two groups player by player, and you can't help but understand how amazing this month has been.

Plenty of room here on playoff island...


I'll come to playoff Island. We better have lots of Tequila and limes though because it may get ugly.


I'll join also. Are we able to at least get some pizza out there? Is it really an island or is this thing gonna be some Fyre Festival type stuff?


Isn't being a Timberwolves fan pretty much like the Frye festival? They tell you its going to be amazing, and you get there and it's just a bunch of random rubes you chat with on the internet who all fell for it.

Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:43 pm
by Monster
thedoper wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
thedoper wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:We were 3 1/2 games out of the playoffs when RoCo went down at the start of January. And at that time we didn't know that our second highest scorer (Rose) would miss more than half of January's games, and our 2 most reliable PGs (Teague and Tyus), both in the top 5 in the league in assist to turnover ratio, would miss about half the games this month, and Jerryd Bayless would be playing 36 minutes a game.

Be honest. If you had known on January 1 that we would be without so many key players during the month, would you have predicted that we would have actually narrowed the gap by the end of the month to 3 games? My guess is if we had conducted a poll, over 90% of the board would have said the gap would have increased rather than decreased.

So why is it so lonely here on playoff island? Doesn't everyone agree that we have overachieved given the injuries? If the playoff pessimism is based on a belief that our 4 injured players aren't going to play or contribute much the rest of the year (I tend to think Teague is out for the season based on what I am hearing), then I don't disagree...we simply can't continue to compete without 4 key players. But if it's based on a belief that we can't compete even with a full roster, I invite you to reconsider your position. We have closed the gap by a half game with Ryan coaching Bayless, Okogie, Terrell and Canaan...and Tolliver out of position. Does anyone really think we wouldn't be much better with Ryan coaching RoCo, Rose, Tyus and Teague instead? Compare those two groups player by player, and you can't help but understand how amazing this month has been.

Plenty of room here on playoff island...


I'll come to playoff Island. We better have lots of Tequila and limes though because it may get ugly.


I'll join also. Are we able to at least get some pizza out there? Is it really an island or is this thing gonna be some Fyre Festival type stuff?


Isn't being a Timberwolves fan pretty much like the Frye festival? They tell you its going to be amazing, and you get there and it's just a bunch of random rubes you chat with on the internet who all fell for it.


Funny you should say that...on the local radio station they made that same comparison to Nebraska basketball. My wife watched 2 different documentaries on the Fyre Festival this month...so I actually know what it is. Had hardly heard of it before. That Bobby M dude is...a piece of S#%@.

Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:46 pm
by mjs34
Q12543 wrote:Flip acquired Brewer, who proceeded to have a career year, and Kevin Martin that summer after Kahn was let go. So I think it's a little questionable to suggest Kahn handed Flip a 40-win squad since those two guys were slotted right into the starting 5 and played quite well for us.

Either way, the whole franchise has been a disaster for the most part, Thibs and Kahn included.


I think the bigger difference was having Ricky healthy back from the knee injury. Anything Martin gave us was washed out by his defense, and Brewer was such a huge get that they traded him the following season.

Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:56 pm
by mjs34
Camden wrote:
sjm34 wrote:Kahn started rebuilding immediately and they managed a paltry 15 wins his first season, and the team he left with Flip pumped out 40 wins. Thibs managed 31 wins (2 more than Mitchell) his first season and I would guess a full season might have brought 40-45 wins. Not really seeing much of a difference. For as bad as Kahn was, Thibs actually looks to be worse.


Your memory seems to be way off if you actually believe any of what you said.


Care to elaborate?

I made about six different claims -

Kahn started rebuilding
Managed a paltry 15 wins
Left Flip with a team that posted 40 wins
Thibs managed 31 wins
Full season (this year) might have brought him 40-45 wins
Thibs actually looks to be worse

So you don't believe any of that? Maybe your memory is the one in question.

Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:21 pm
by MikkeMan
sjm34 wrote:
Care to elaborate?

I made about six different claims -

Kahn started rebuilding
Managed a paltry 15 wins
Left Flip with a team that posted 40 wins
Thibs managed 31 wins
Full season (this year) might have brought him 40-45 wins
Thibs actually looks to be worse

So you don't believe any of that? Maybe your memory is the one in question.


I see this different way. Kahn inherited 24 win team from McHale and made it 15 win team next season and his last season team got 31 wins. So improvement was just 7 wins. Like Q wrote that 40 win team had already quite much to do with Flips moves. Had they kept Kirilenko over Martin and Brewer, I'm sure theh would havd had worse win total.

Thibs got 29 win team and turned it to 47 win team in his last full season. I admit that this season win total would have been probably less than that but I still believe they would have got more than 41 wins.

Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:38 pm
by mjs34
Mikkeman wrote:
sjm34 wrote:
Care to elaborate?

I made about six different claims -

Kahn started rebuilding
Managed a paltry 15 wins
Left Flip with a team that posted 40 wins
Thibs managed 31 wins
Full season (this year) might have brought him 40-45 wins
Thibs actually looks to be worse

So you don't believe any of that? Maybe your memory is the one in question.


I see this different way. Kahn inherited 24 win team from McHale and made it 15 win team next season and his last season team got 31 wins. So improvement was just 7 wins. Like Q wrote that 40 win team had already quite much to do with Flips moves. Had they kept Kirilenko over Martin and Brewer, I'm sure theh would havd had worse win total.

Thibs got 29 win team and turned it to 47 win team in his last full season. I admit that this season win total would have been probably less than that but I still believe they would have got more than 41 wins.


So you don't think trading Foye and Miller for Rubio (who was in limbo for two years) had anything to do with the 15 wins, or boosting us to 40 after coming back for his full healthy season? I think that is very short sighted.

Don't forget that Thibs also wiped out our cap space by signing Dieng immediately after taking over and then the following season when trading for Butler and signing Teague and Gibson.

Thank god Bazz turned down the 4/40 mil deal offered him!

Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:52 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
The 40-win 2014 season remains one of the most ridiculous but very on-brand seasons for the Wolves... or any team.

EXPECTED W/L is a silly little stat, but it's pretty accurate. I've never seen it be so off as with that Wolves team.

It has the Wolves with 48 wins. And when you consider the team had a Top 10 offense AND top 10 defense into the final week of the season, it's mind-boggling to think that not only did the team not make the playoffs... but couldn't even win 1/2 its games.

What a season.

I think they had something like eight 25+ point wins... but struggled mightily in the 4th quarters of games with both Rubio and Barea's production falling off the cliff in the final frame... game after game, week after week.

I hated that year.

Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:34 pm
by Monster
FWIW right now 538 gives the Wolves a 21% chance of getting into the playoffs. That's up from 19% before the Win against the Grizz.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/

I still think the Wolve shave a decent chance of getting in. Getting healthy I think they COULD go on a run. The Wolves have had quite the rash of injuries. What if they get healthy next month and a couple teams have their guy(s) go down? If a fan thinks they won't make it that's fine but it's not insane to go for it either...the way things sit now.

Re: Playoffs???

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:50 pm
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
monsterpile wrote:FWIW right now 538 gives the Wolves a 21% chance of getting into the playoffs. That's up from 19% before the Win against the Grizz.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/

I still think the Wolve shave a decent chance of getting in. Getting healthy I think they COULD go on a run. The Wolves have had quite the rash of injuries. What if they get healthy next month and a couple teams have their guy(s) go down? If a fan thinks they won't make it that's fine but it's not insane to go for it either...the way things sit now.

I still think Nate Silver's predictions hold up as well as anyone's, so his having us tied for 9th shows what an uphill climb we have. It's interesting that he has the Kings falling apart, and the Lakers and Pels ending up tied with us (but losing the tiebreaker). But he has the Clippers hanging in there and finishing 3 games ahead of us in 8th place...hard for me to agree with that one. They're 4-6 in their last 10 and already beginning their decline I think.

We don't know the assumptions that go into his forecast, but I'm guessing his 40-42 record for the Lakers and the Wolves assumes James doesn't play much the rest of the season (my prediction also), and the Wolves continue to struggle with injuries (fair assumption, I'm afraid). If those things are true, I think 40-42 is a pretty good forecast for both teams.