Minnesota Sports Forum

You are a casinos wet dream. You know the probability and still wanna lower your odds for….better odds…if we have a 2% chance now, and changing the coach you seem to agree is 50/50 to improve…that means you’re odds next year become 1%…

BeenLurkin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2026 12:43 pm You are a casinos wet dream. You know the probability and still wanna lower your odds for….better odds…if we have a 2% chance now, and changing the coach you seem to agree is 50/50 to improve…that means you’re odds next year become 1%…

That's not how math works

BeenLurkin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2026 12:43 pm You are a casinos wet dream. You know the probability and still wanna lower your odds for….better odds…if we have a 2% chance now, and changing the coach you seem to agree is 50/50 to improve…that means you’re odds next year become 1%…

It could be 1%, it could be 2%, it could also vault to 10% with the improved coach who gets closer to the max out of the team. That is a realistic result where just a coaching change unlocks the potential upside.

No sense in arguing with you, you think Finch is the best coach in the NBA and no one could be better. But I think for the avg, we do think there is some upside possibilities.

It's funny because if you were to guarantee coin flip odds that the next head coach would be better than Finch, those are actually good betting odds depending on the gamble.

So the real question is what percentage of input does a head coach have on championship odds?

Is it a 50% chance that you can move from 2% to 25%? Obviously you take that

TAFKASP wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2026 12:36 pm Fire the whole team and watch the Wild instead.

My man

I'm a Finch guy. I want him back next year.

https://medium.com/@johnchenmbb/the-nba ... 66675623d8

Here’s a bit of data. This fella says you need a top 10, top 25 and top 50 player to win a title. Coaching be damned.
We have a top 10 guy, and two top 50 guys (Rudy and Randle) and a fantastic supporting cast based on some adjustments at the deadline. Is there a coach out there that could elevate Randle or Jaden into a top 25 guy? Or is this roster capped and no amount of coaching can fix it as is? Which is more likely?
Imo if we have a top 25 guy instead of Randle or Rudy then finch can pull it off. But there isn’t some coaching magic that’s gonna propel Rudy/randle into the necessary consistent producers they need to be. The both lack the ability to put it all together for an entire post season

So there are odds of how a coaching change might make the team better or worse, but then there are odds of whether staying with the same coach makes you better or worse. The Nuggets might not be any better without Malone, but perhaps they would be worse if they stuck with him. The change was needed to at least tread water and when 100% healthy they absolutely have a chance again this year.

I'm overall fairly ambivalent about whether we keep Finch or not. He's had a good run here and for sure has helped steward Ant's growth. That doesn't automatically mean he continues being successful. I will trust that Connelly knows what he's doing if he makes a change.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2026 3:17 pm So there are odds of how a coaching change might make the team better or worse, but then there are odds of whether staying with the same coach makes you better or worse. The Nuggets might not be any better without Malone, but perhaps they would be worse if they stuck with him. The change was needed to at least tread water and when 100% healthy they absolutely have a chance again this year.

I'm overall fairly ambivalent about whether we keep Finch or not. He's had a good run here and for sure has helped steward Ant's growth. That doesn't automatically mean he continues being successful. I will trust that Connelly knows what he's doing if he makes a change.

Well said.

I’ll also add that each season has presented a significant change that Finch and the team have had to work through. This year seemed to be the “continuity” season, but that really has not been the case. The Conley-fall-off-a-cliff scenario forced a significant change of pushing Donte into the starting line up AND forcing ANT to assume PG responsibilities, which has NOT been a complete success. Add in the disappearing act by Dilly and Shannon (for different reasons), and this season has been chaotic. It has now been given renewed hope by the emergence of Bones, the acquisition of Ayo, and the return of SloMo.

TC has shown patience with coaches in the past. I don’t see Finch going anywhere soon.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2026 3:17 pm So there are odds of how a coaching change might make the team better or worse, but then there are odds of whether staying with the same coach makes you better or worse. The Nuggets might not be any better without Malone, but perhaps they would be worse if they stuck with him. The change was needed to at least tread water and when 100% healthy they absolutely have a chance again this year.

I'm overall fairly ambivalent about whether we keep Finch or not. He's had a good run here and for sure has helped steward Ant's growth. That doesn't automatically mean he continues being successful. I will trust that Connelly knows what he's doing if he makes a change.

Thats also true that things staying the same could go worse as well and Denver was looking real ugly behind the scenes from what I heard. I would watch some DNVR podcasts after we played them so I heard quite a bit about how bad things were with Malone.

In the end I'm with you. TC is way more in the know then any of us and I think he's done a great job overall. So I trust TC to make the right decision.