Minnesota Sports Forum

Nothing super amazing but i'll Post it anyway.

Shams reporting the deal Is 4 picks Knight and Chriss. He says the Wolves aren't interested in that package especially for 2 injured players for what could be late round firsts especially early on.

Jon K is reporting that basically those picks and salary filler isn't going to get it done. He said on a podcast this morning that Eric Gordon would likely have to be in a deal for the Wolves to be interested in a Houston offer. He said he didn't think Houston would want to include Gordon and try and say what other value having those 1st round picks could have in moving salary etc. I'd be kinda surprised if Gordon really held up this deal. He is a very useful player but it would also mean one less guy they have to pay next season so that doesn't hurt especially when they are looking at paying 3 max guys among other salaries.

It's starting to get interesting again folks.

monsterpile wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:It's a fair point that we don't know that the 4 picks will all be in the 20s. But if the Wolves become as terrible as I think they will be if we only get picks back for Butler, there's a possibility the fan base will give up on yet another rebuild, and Glen will sell the team to an out-of-state buyer. How much value to you place on the '23 and '25 picks if they are going to the Seattle Timberwolves?


So for the sake of argument let's assume the team stays in Minnesota, and the picks end up in the 20s. Let's not talk about past picks in the 20s that the Wolves didn't make (Gobert), instead let's talk about picks in the 20s we have made...because that's reality Here's the list:


Gerald Glass
Marlon Maxey
Sherron Mills
Howard Eisley
Paul Grant
Ndudi Ebi
Wayne Ellington
Trevor Booker
Donatas Montiejunas
Andre Roberson
Josh Okogie


We all love Josh Okogie and his 34% shooting percentage right now, but throw 4 darts at that list and tell me if it's an adequate return for Jimmy Butler. I pass on this deal, and hope the Wolves do too.

This re-re-re-re-rebuild (Abe trademarked) reminds me of where we were when Kahn took over. He actually made a move to add another top pick to the chest of picks he was given. He went on to make awful draft picks among other terrible moves. If we could just have someone moderately competent we should be able to hit on a couple picks the next few years. If we have someone that's above average we could do better.

That is so true, Monster. But I'd like to aim for more than just "above average." How about excellent, way above average or elite? A front office of the same caliber as Boston's, San Antonio's and Utah's. I suppose that's too much to ask for as a Wolves fan. :)

I woke up this morning hoping the Wolves reject the Houston deal. As I reflect on it, 4 picks likely to be in the 20s over 7 years isn't optimal to say the least. To the extent any of those 4 picks might be in the lottery, it would be the last two - 2023 and 2025. The 2023 pick would be KAT's last year of his new contract and the 2025 pick would be after KAT's contract expires. The Wolves should not be rebuilding from scratch at this point. Doing that would squander the opportunity we have with KAT. The Wolves need to focus on retooling around KAT. Okogie might be part of that and perhaps even Wiggins. Ideally, a Butler deal would bring in a young player who has already proven himself to be NBA caliber with allstar upside. But if draft picks are going to be the centerpiece of a Butler deal, it's essential that at least one pick we receive be a likely lottery pick within the next two years. The point is to get a potential allstar early enough in KAT's contract period to form a tandem (perhaps a trio with Okogie) to become a contender before KAT's contract nears its end.

The Wolves have to have a coherent, logical, realistic plan to become a contender in the foreseeable future. That means building around KAT. The Wolves should not move forward with a scatter-shot plan that simply gets 4 picks, perhaps two of them lottery picks 5-7 years from now when KAT will gone. That's a roll of the dice, and not a very good roll. Of course, the first order of business for the Wolves should be putting a top notch front office in place to do the Butler deal and, even more importantly, to make the most of the assets we get in return for Butler. The Okogie pick and Tolliver signings simply aren't enough to even come close to concluding that Thibodeau and Layden are a first rate front office executive tandem. And the way Thibodeau allowed this Butler situation to get to the point it's at now tells us he's not the guy to count on as the top executive going forward.

Even if you just go look up the last 10 picks at #24, 25 or 26....you basically get one or two decent bench players and one legit plus level starter per 10 year window. So you are basically looking at potentially 4 late first rounders there is a 40% chance one of them will be good (Ibaka-Capela level good) and about an 80% chance you get a solid bench player (Tyus Jones for example).

So it's basically Butler for Serge Ibaka, Tyus Jones, and two busts if we just left it to a historical random pick generator. Of course things look better if any of those draft picks are higher. There is something to be said about having more darts to throw, but it's highly unlikely we get any one or two players that even come close to Jimmy Butler's impact.

Q12543 wrote:Even if you just go look up the last 10 picks at #24, 25 or 26....you basically get one or two decent bench players and one legit plus level starter per 10 year window. So you are basically looking at potentially 4 late first rounders there is a 40% chance one of them will be good (Ibaka-Capela level good) and about an 80% chance you get a solid bench player (Tyus Jones for example).

So it's basically Butler for Serge Ibaka, Tyus Jones, and two busts if we just left it to a historical random pick generator. Of course things look better if any of those draft picks are higher. There is something to be said about having more darts to throw, but it's highly unlikely we get any one or two players that even come close to Jimmy Butler's impact.

And don't forget Ibaka and Jones aren't arriving on the scene ready to be difference makers. So add one or two or three years... to the already extended timeline.

Don't worry though, KAT is still only 23 or whatever. By the time his second max contract is over... the Wolves will be ready for the playoffs.

Kinda losing focus here.

He's leaving, and this is the best deal they're going get, unless MIA gives up (around) the same picks with better players. But there's really no one else besides HOU and MIA.

He can't walk for nothing. He just can't. If the Wolves eff this up, it will be way worse than the Gaborik eff up, or the Santana eff up, or the Carew eff up.

JasonIsDaMan wrote:Kinda losing focus here.

He's leaving, and this is the best deal they're going get, unless MIA gives up (around) the same picks with better players. But there's really no one else besides HOU and MIA.

He can't walk for nothing. He just can't. If the Wolves eff this up, it will be way worse than the Gaborik eff up, or the Santana eff up, or the Carew eff up.

So you're cool with another decade of "HOPE" despite already failing with two #1 picks on the roster?

It's ok to expect more from an NBA franchise. Wolves fans don't have to ask for the moon... merely competence or average-ness.

Wolves management telling the fans "Just wait a few more years and we'll make a playoff run... maybe... if everything works in our favor" is a huge ask.

JasonIsDaMan wrote:Kinda losing focus here.

He's leaving, and this is the best deal they're going get, unless MIA gives up (around) the same picks with better players. But there's really no one else besides HOU and MIA.

He can't walk for nothing. He just can't. If the Wolves eff this up, it will be way worse than the Gaborik eff up, or the Santana eff up, or the Carew eff up.

I'm with you, Jason, in not wanting to just let Butler walk. And I agree that so far it looks like the only two interested suitors are Houston and Miami. But I still think there's an opportunity to leverage Houston's offer into a better deal with Miami and possibly spark a better offer from some other team like Philadelphia, Boston or Washington.

Q did a good job of exposing the minimal player value of picks in the 20s. But the other problem with the Houston deal is the long 7-year time horizon over which that limited value would be realized. That time horizon extends beyond the KAT contract and any chance of getting a lottery pick would be at that tail end. Boston and Philadelphia have much better draft assets to offer and they can also offer young talent (Brown, Saric) who are already much better than any player we're likely to get with picks in the 20s.

Miami's Richardson is MUCH better than any player we're likely to get with all 4 picks in the 20s and we'd have him right away to pair and develop with KAT and Okogie. If we could also get Adebayo and Miami's 2019 first round pick, we'd have a far superior deal to the one Houston is offering. In fact, I'd consider Richardson, Olynyk and Miami's 1st a better deal than the one Houston is offering. I'd also prefer dealing Butler and Gorgui for Richardson, Whiteside and Miami's pick. I know others will disagree with my valuation of those possible Miami deals compared to the Houston offer, but I think it's imperative to get either a proven young player with lots of upside or likely lottery picks. And it's imperative to get those assets within a timeframe that meshes with KAT's age and contract.

Just for fun...

Kelly Olynyk was largely ignored as part of the Miami offer... but consider...

He was a lottery pick.
And by any metric or eye test you use... he's a top 10 player from that draft who's currently in his prime. Can we realistically expect any of the draft picks to end up as "good" as Olynyk.

With the regime we have in place... I simply don't see the Wolves being able to land a gem of a low draft pick regardless of how many chances they get at it. The odds are against them. The history of the franchise is against them.

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:It's a fair point that we don't know that the 4 picks will all be in the 20s. But if the Wolves become as terrible as I think they will be if we only get picks back for Butler, there's a possibility the fan base will give up on yet another rebuild, and Glen will sell the team to an out-of-state buyer. How much value to you place on the '23 and '25 picks if they are going to the Seattle Timberwolves?


So for the sake of argument let's assume the team stays in Minnesota, and the picks end up in the 20s. Let's not talk about past picks in the 20s that the Wolves didn't make (Gobert), instead let's talk about picks in the 20s we have made...because that's reality Here's the list:


Gerald Glass
Marlon Maxey
Sherron Mills
Howard Eisley
Paul Grant
Ndudi Ebi
Wayne Ellington
Trevor Booker
Donatas Montiejunas
Andre Roberson
Josh Okogie


We all love Josh Okogie and his 34% shooting percentage right now, but throw 4 darts at that list and tell me if it's an adequate return for Jimmy Butler. I pass on this deal, and hope the Wolves do too.

This re-re-re-re-rebuild (Abe trademarked) reminds me of where we were when Kahn took over. He actually made a move to add another top pick to the chest of picks he was given. He went on to make awful draft picks among other terrible moves. If we could just have someone moderately competent we should be able to hit on a couple picks the next few years. If we have someone that's above average we could do better.

That is so true, Monster. But I'd like to aim for more than just "above average." How about excellent, way above average or elite? A front office of the same caliber as Boston's, San Antonio's and Utah's. I suppose that's too much to ask for as a Wolves fan. :)

I woke up this morning hoping the Wolves reject the Houston deal. As I reflect on it, 4 picks likely to be in the 20s over 7 years isn't optimal to say the least. To the extent any of those 4 picks might be in the lottery, it would be the last two - 2023 and 2025. The 2023 pick would be KAT's last year of his new contract and the 2025 pick would be after KAT's contract expires. The Wolves should not be rebuilding from scratch at this point. Doing that would squander the opportunity we have with KAT. The Wolves need to focus on retooling around KAT. Okogie might be part of that and perhaps even Wiggins. Ideally, a Butler deal would bring in a young player who has already proven himself to be NBA caliber with allstar upside. But if draft picks are going to be the centerpiece of a Butler deal, it's essential that at least one pick we receive be a likely lottery pick within the next two years. The point is to get a potential allstar early enough in KAT's contract period to form a tandem (perhaps a trio with Okogie) to become a contender before KAT's contract nears its end.

The Wolves have to have a coherent, logical, realistic plan to become a contender in the foreseeable future. That means building around KAT. The Wolves should not move forward with a scatter-shot plan that simply gets 4 picks, perhaps two of them lottery picks 5-7 years from now when KAT will gone. That's a roll of the dice, and not a very good roll. Of course, the first order of business for the Wolves should be putting a top notch front office in place to do the Butler deal and, even more importantly, to make the most of the assets we get in return for Butler. The Okogie pick and Tolliver signings simply aren't enough to even come close to concluding that Thibodeau and Layden are a first rate front office executive tandem. And the way Thibodeau allowed this Butler situation to get to the point it's at now tells us he's not the guy to count on as the top executive going forward.

Obviously an elite front office should be the goal my point was someone that is reasonably competent should be able to do more than what Kahn did with a bunch of lottery picks and Al Jefferson Love and Pek stashed over in Europe. There is a reason why people including myself were almost giddy at one point with the Bazz and Dieng picks. Lol

Cam laid out in an earlier post how those picks can have value earlier than just selecting them when they come as well as making this roster and job more enticing to a possible elite type front office guy. It harkens back to how messed up it was that we ended up with Kahn instead of someone else for that job a few years ago. That's on Glen Taylor and I think it's also fair to say there was at least some small element of bad luck too. Meanwhile Dennis Lindsey kept building and building and now has a roster some people think is a contender. I'm not going that far honestly and the Jazz have t exactly nailed everything (probably have been a better mixed bag than the Grizz did for years) but sigh it was played out better than us no doubt.

lipoli390 wrote:

JasonIsDaMan wrote:Kinda losing focus here.

He's leaving, and this is the best deal they're going get, unless MIA gives up (around) the same picks with better players. But there's really no one else besides HOU and MIA.

He can't walk for nothing. He just can't. If the Wolves eff this up, it will be way worse than the Gaborik eff up, or the Santana eff up, or the Carew eff up.

I'm with you, Jason, in not wanting to just let Butler walk. And I agree that so far it looks like the only two interested suitors are Houston and Miami. But I still think there's an opportunity to leverage Houston's offer into a better deal with Miami and possibly spark a better offer from some other team like Philadelphia, Boston or Washington.

Q did a good job of exposing the minimal player value of picks in the 20s. But the other problem with the Houston deal is the long 7-year time horizon over which that limited value would be realized. That time horizon extends beyond the KAT contract and any chance of getting a lottery pick would be at that tail end. Boston and Philadelphia have much better draft assets to offer and they can also offer young talent (Brown, Saric) who are already much better than any player we're likely to get with picks in the 20s.

Miami's Richardson is MUCH better than any player we're likely to get with all 4 picks in the 20s and we'd have him right away to pair and develop with KAT and Okogie. If we could also get Adebayo and Miami's 2019 first round pick, we'd have a far superior deal to the one Houston is offering. In fact, I'd consider Richardson, Olynyk and Miami's 1st a better deal than the one Houston is offering. I'd also prefer dealing Butler and Gorgui for Richardson, Whiteside and Miami's pick. I know others will disagree with my valuation of those possible Miami deals compared to the Houston offer, but I think it's imperative to get either a proven young player with lots of upside or likely lottery picks. And it's imperative to get those assets within a timeframe that meshes with KAT's age and contract.

To me it depends on what the Miami offer is. Olynyk (I agree with Abe he offers real value) Richardson and a 1st would be better assets especially early on than the Houston offer especially if Gordon isn't included from the Rockets. I probably haven't been clear on the Rockets deal. I'm not saying absolutely take it but I'm arguing the merits of it especially if you get something else back besides the first which for me would include Gordon and Chriss. If that is the offer compared to any of the ones you listed here it depends on how you value various players and what the priorities you have going forward.

We all can agree that this offer from the Rockets seems to show there is a real market for Butler and the Wolves should likely continue to explore what they can get. Shams said the Sixers might get in on this which makes things even more interesting.