Minnesota Sports Forum

Several times now I've seen competent posters talk about how Houston will quickly rebuild and drive down the value of those last two first-round picks. How do you realistically expect that to happen? In four years (maybe less), the Rockets are not going to be good and they won't have the draft picks nor cap flexibility -- assuming Butler re-signs -- to retool and be good again. Morey will have $145M against the cap in 2021-22 wrapped up in just four players: 36-year old CP3, 33-year old Butler, 32-year old Harden, and 27-year old Capela. Rounding out that roster with a plethora of vet minimum guys and a couple unproven draft picks of their own just sounds like a disaster to me. And that's assuming that foursome stayed relatively healthy, which -- as we know all too well -- is not a given by any means. So, what's the plan? How are the Rockets going to magically be good the next seven years while having next to nothing in terms of resources and aging stars sucking up 90% of their cap?

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Abe, Q, you need to think a little more creatively here. Those assets in the hand of a smart front office with a plan means a hek of a lot more than just picks in the 20's over 7 years. Cam and I have posted about all the avenues having those assets opens up. Remember until the Brooklyn deal, Boston was getting decent but not high lottery picks that they were having trouble turning into stars. Similar to how the Wolves were back in the very early days where we were always drafting just one or two spots from where we needed to be. But you can do a helluva lot with multiple first round picks over multiple years. Ainge has always managed to acquire more high draft assets even when trading one away. There is no blueprint for how exactly this should be done, but for a franchise who looks to have blown another rebuild, this is essentially a get out of jail free card and another golden opportunity to finally build a contender. And it doesn't have to take 7 years. Not when you already have some good pieces in place.

I appreciate the flexibility and "currency" this gives us, but to Abe's point, that doesn't actually mean anything until it translates to a real player or two that can impact the game at a high level. And Houston has every incentive now to stay good and quickly rebuild with vets once this current group ages out.

I would prefer a deal that gives us some mix of young proven players (like JRich), draft assets, and salary filler on shorter deals. The Houston deal gives us no existing proven talent and there is no guarantee it ever will.

And how do they re-tool with no tradeable picks and no cap space? CP3, Jimmy and maybe even Harden are gonna age out before their contracts are up. They're gonna be paying luxury tax for their big 4 a year and possibly two after they are no longer a big 4. They just flat out wouldn't have the resources to fix that mess. And they won't care to desperately fix it either if it gets them a title in the next 2 years.

Maybe Houston is leveraging too much of its future with such a trade. But something tells me that they're not sacrificing everything just yet.

After all, something is working in Houston. They've had a winning record in 31 of the past 34 seasons.

When Morey arrived, it was a Ming + McGrady team. Then it was Aaron Brooks/Kevin Martin/Luis Scola. Then Harden + Parsons. Then Harden + Howard. Then Harden + Paul.

Meanwhile, they did this almost entirely without 1st round draft picks. Only Brooks and Capela really made much impact.

All the while, the Wolves built around multiple #1 draft picks. And we're being told that's the only route that's gonna work... only with much lower picks.

Sorry. I aint buying it. And while Houston is relevant here because they're the trading partner, we could also look at Indiana, Utah, SA, MIlwaukee, et al as other organizations that found ways to be respectable to good without relying heavily on a bevy of 1st rd picks.

Meanwhile, Orlando, MN, Sacramento, et al have been among the biggest champions of the promise of hope campaigns over the years... this side of Philadelphia.

Exactly. Teams don't HAVE to get lottery picks to re-tool and they have proven it time and again, as have other teams. Houston is a big town with a big market and with zero state income taxes. Morey is one of the savviest GMs in the business.

But let's just say Houston does get crappy and we end up getting a lottery pick with, say, their 2023 pick. Most likely that lottery pick will be an 18 or 19 year old that will take a few years to develop, which takes us to around 2026. Exacly where is KAT at that point!? Is he still even with us because that is way beyond his current contract window.

Q12543 wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Abe, Q, you need to think a little more creatively here. Those assets in the hand of a smart front office with a plan means a hek of a lot more than just picks in the 20's over 7 years. Cam and I have posted about all the avenues having those assets opens up. Remember until the Brooklyn deal, Boston was getting decent but not high lottery picks that they were having trouble turning into stars. Similar to how the Wolves were back in the very early days where we were always drafting just one or two spots from where we needed to be. But you can do a helluva lot with multiple first round picks over multiple years. Ainge has always managed to acquire more high draft assets even when trading one away. There is no blueprint for how exactly this should be done, but for a franchise who looks to have blown another rebuild, this is essentially a get out of jail free card and another golden opportunity to finally build a contender. And it doesn't have to take 7 years. Not when you already have some good pieces in place.

I appreciate the flexibility and "currency" this gives us, but to Abe's point, that doesn't actually mean anything until it translates to a real player or two that can impact the game at a high level. And Houston has every incentive now to stay good and quickly rebuild with vets once this current group ages out.

I would prefer a deal that gives us some mix of young proven players (like JRich), draft assets, and salary filler on shorter deals. The Houston deal gives us no existing proven talent and there is no guarantee it ever will.

And how do they re-tool with no tradeable picks and no cap space? CP3, Jimmy and maybe even Harden are gonna age out before their contracts are up. They're gonna be paying luxury tax for their big 4 a year and possibly two after they are no longer a big 4. They just flat out wouldn't have the resources to fix that mess. And they won't care to desperately fix it either if it gets them a title in the next 2 years.

Maybe Houston is leveraging too much of its future with such a trade. But something tells me that they're not sacrificing everything just yet.

After all, something is working in Houston. They've had a winning record in 31 of the past 34 seasons.

When Morey arrived, it was a Ming + McGrady team. Then it was Aaron Brooks/Kevin Martin/Luis Scola. Then Harden + Parsons. Then Harden + Howard. Then Harden + Paul.

Meanwhile, they did this almost entirely without 1st round draft picks. Only Brooks and Capela really made much impact.

All the while, the Wolves built around multiple #1 draft picks. And we're being told that's the only route that's gonna work... only with much lower picks.

Sorry. I aint buying it. And while Houston is relevant here because they're the trading partner, we could also look at Indiana, Utah, SA, MIlwaukee, et al as other organizations that found ways to be respectable to good without relying heavily on a bevy of 1st rd picks.

Meanwhile, Orlando, MN, Sacramento, et al have been among the biggest champions of the promise of hope campaigns over the years... this side of Philadelphia.

Exactly. Teams don't HAVE to get lottery picks to re-tool and they have proven it time and again, as have other teams. Houston is a big town with a big market and with zero state income taxes. Morey is one of the savviest GMs in the business.

But let's just say Houston does get crappy and we end up getting a lottery pick with, say, their 2023 pick. Most likely that lottery pick will be an 18 or 19 year old that will take a few years to develop, which takes us to around 2026. Exacly where is KAT at that point!? Is he still even with us because that is way beyond his current contract window.

And this is after we read for about a year from a few why the Butler trade was a bad one because he wasn't on the same timeline as Towns and Wiggins... that the Wolves should have kept Dunn and Lavine to grow together.

Let's be honest... A LOT happens in the NBA... and quickly. There are literally dozens upon dozens of possible scenarios between now and 2023, or 2020 for that matter.

And broken record alert... one organization has a documented history of success... while the other has a documented history of uneven-ness at best or disappointment.

Which one are you choosing? Do you believe that much in the law of averages?

After all, I'm sure somebody at some point figured that Mario Mendoza was gonna start hitting the ball consistently...

Camden wrote:Several times now I've seen competent posters talk about how Houston will quickly rebuild and drive down the value of those last two first-round picks. How do you realistically expect that to happen? In four years (maybe less), the Rockets are not going to be good and they won't have the draft picks nor cap flexibility -- assuming Butler re-signs -- to retool and be good again. Morey will have $145M against the cap in 2021-22 wrapped up in just four players: 36-year old CP3, 33-year old Butler, 32-year old Harden, and 27-year old Capela. Rounding out that roster with a plethora of vet minimum guys and a couple unproven draft picks of their own just sounds like a disaster to me. And that's assuming that foursome stayed relatively healthy, which -- as we know all too well -- is not a given by any means. So, what's the plan? How are the Rockets going to magically be good the next seven years while having next to nothing in terms of resources and aging stars sucking up 90% of their cap?

Buyouts, salary dumps, trades....there are ways to extricate oneself from these deals. How many years will be on each deal in '21-22?

They don't even need all four to stay healthy to be good. They are a 45+ win team with pretty much any two of those players.

Q12543 wrote:

Camden wrote:Several times now I've seen competent posters talk about how Houston will quickly rebuild and drive down the value of those last two first-round picks. How do you realistically expect that to happen? In four years (maybe less), the Rockets are not going to be good and they won't have the draft picks nor cap flexibility -- assuming Butler re-signs -- to retool and be good again. Morey will have $145M against the cap in 2021-22 wrapped up in just four players: 36-year old CP3, 33-year old Butler, 32-year old Harden, and 27-year old Capela. Rounding out that roster with a plethora of vet minimum guys and a couple unproven draft picks of their own just sounds like a disaster to me. And that's assuming that foursome stayed relatively healthy, which -- as we know all too well -- is not a given by any means. So, what's the plan? How are the Rockets going to magically be good the next seven years while having next to nothing in terms of resources and aging stars sucking up 90% of their cap?

Buyouts, salary dumps, trades....there are ways to extricate oneself from these deals. How many years will be on each deal in '21-22?

They don't even need all four to stay healthy to be good. They are a 45+ win team with pretty much any two of those players.

55 wins:
James Harden
Eric Gordon
Ryan Anderson
Trevor Ariza
Beverley
Capela

56 wins:
On team with Domantas Montewhoisthis playing 3rd most minutes. Corey Brewer was 6th in minutes.

This is the Herschel Walker trade finally coming back to mn fans!

For those comparing HOU to MIN: Yes. HOU has done a good job with front office and coaching hires, and that has contributed greatly to their success. Each owner seems OK spending money. But don't discount the role that the markets have played. HOU is very big and actually likes basketball. M/SP is smaller and seems to have taken to this sport called hockey.

I don't have any easy answers, other than hire better front office people. But there is some apples/oranges to this.

And they got Ming by winning the lottery and McGrady by having Francis to offer in trade, who was in HOU because they had more endorsement opportunities than VAN. Martin was a dumb move by SAC. Parsons was a dumb move by Flip (at risk of speaking ill of the dead). Harden was a dumb move by OKC. And Great-Guy Chris Paul once again bitched his way off of a team.

I'm not blaming any one person, because a lot of you do it, but maybe some research instead of a role call of names. I know it's the middle of the day and some of you are at work. Maybe wait till you get home. The internet will still be there.

Q12543 wrote:

Camden wrote:Several times now I've seen competent posters talk about how Houston will quickly rebuild and drive down the value of those last two first-round picks. How do you realistically expect that to happen? In four years (maybe less), the Rockets are not going to be good and they won't have the draft picks nor cap flexibility -- assuming Butler re-signs -- to retool and be good again. Morey will have $145M against the cap in 2021-22 wrapped up in just four players: 36-year old CP3, 33-year old Butler, 32-year old Harden, and 27-year old Capela. Rounding out that roster with a plethora of vet minimum guys and a couple unproven draft picks of their own just sounds like a disaster to me. And that's assuming that foursome stayed relatively healthy, which -- as we know all too well -- is not a given by any means. So, what's the plan? How are the Rockets going to magically be good the next seven years while having next to nothing in terms of resources and aging stars sucking up 90% of their cap?

Buyouts, salary dumps, trades....there are ways to extricate oneself from these deals. How many years will be on each deal in '21-22?

They don't even need all four to stay healthy to be good. They are a 45+ win team with pretty much any two of those players.

Who's taking on $30-40M in salary dump for one player without legitimate assets attached? I mean, we're hearing it might take two first-round picks just to offload Gorgui Dieng and his deal is arguably more manageable than that. And what assets are the Rockets going to even have to attach? Will they continue to mortgage their future by making draft day trades just to offload salary? Seems unrealistic to me, but alright, we'll go with that.

It's wild to me how much respect and credit the Rockets are getting right now, though. This is the same front office that tried to go all-in on an aging Pau Gasol, arguably swung and missed several times in free agency with over-aggressive deals to Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin, and Ryan Anderson -- while losing Chandler Parsons in his prime a year earlier than they needed to. Not to mention losing two impact defenders this past off-season in Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute and replacing them with... James Ennis and Carmelo Anthony? This is the front office you're telling me can remain a winning team for seven years?

You get out from bad contracts and bad overall situations by having at least one of two things: tons of draft picks or a ton of cap space. The Rockets will have neither.

Amazing how trade talk and draft picks gets us talking a whole lot more than actually playing basketball... :-(

Well, just to keep the chatter going, looks like Butler is being held out tonight for "illness". Like I believe that one!!!

Butler questionable tonight.

Og also sitting for no apparent reason.

Maybe masai is making a last minute move.