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[BloopOracle]

I follow Beverly on instagram, he has been in Italy for some kind of fashion week

I would like to take your attention to this picture of Leandro Bolmaro

https://twitter.com/Timberwolves/status/1442957666276478976?s=19

We will see how raw he is but I have to say I didn't expect him to have an NBA body already

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I follow Beverly on instagram, he has been in Italy for some kind of fashion week

I would like to take your attention to this picture of Leandro Bolmaro

https://twitter.com/Timberwolves/status/1442957666276478976?s=19

We will see how raw he is but I have to say I didn't expect him to have an NBA body already

Welcome to Minnesota - where all the players are stronger, taller, and better looking than last year!

[Monster]

Dane Moore brought this up when he asked a question about this to Naz but in his recent podcast Dane talked about that people he talked to that were around the Wolves last year they said Naz was the guy that absolutely hated losing last year. Dane also said that Naz really is the first guy in last guy to leave of the Wolves it's not just a cliche for Naz he really does put in the time. It's quite the transformation from a guy that didn't seem to care work hard etc in college.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Dane Moore brought this up when he asked a question about this to Naz but in his recent podcast Dane talked about that people he talked to that were around the Wolves last year they said Naz was the guy that absolutely hated losing last year. Dane also said that Naz really is the first guy in last guy to leave of the Wolves it's not just a cliche for Naz he really does put in the time. It's quite the transformation from a guy that didn't seem to care work hard etc in college.

I know the On/Off numbers can be fickle, but I'd love to see Naz's work ethic translate more into winning basketball when he's on the floor. We were awful when he was on the floor and not so bad when he was on the bench. Hopefully that was just a statistical anomaly.

[FNG]

Some context when it comes to league average TS% the last few years.

https://aminoapps.com/c/nba/page/item/year-by-year-league-average-ts/wKgr_EQQspIBPl0l71boaZNMVpbqLvabKb0

2011 .541
2012 .527
2013 .535
2014 .541
2015 .534
2016 .541
2017 .552
2018 .556
2019 .560
2020 .563
2021 .572

Also when we look at Russell's TS% (about 55.5% the last 2 seasons) it might be worthwhile comparing it to perimeter players not bigs that that live mostly in the paint but I'm open to someone digging further into that if they are interested.

Also the biggest thing I'm look at when it comes to Russell being a worthwhile player if healthy is wins.

I agree, monster that we need to compare DLO's TS% to other guards when measuring efficiency because bigs generally have higher TS% than guards. DLO's career 53% is below the average efficiency for NBA guards, and his (admittedly improved) 55.5 % is still below the league average of 55.8%. TS% is not the be all and end all for measuring performance and it's true DLO is talented at getting his shot off, but I want (and we need) our max salary guard to at least be average in TS%.

Monster, I take issue with your bolded comment above. Should team wins be the most important stat in evaluating a player's worth? The Wolves won 47 games in 2017-8, certainly a very good year for them in terms of wins. But Andrew Wiggins put up DLO-like stats that season: ORtg 101,DRtg 113, 50.5 TS%, a slightly positive on/off number. Should we conclude that Wig had a worthwhile season because the team won?

That's my point here. As I've said before, getting substantial improvement out of a guard who consumes 1/4 of our payroll is critical to this team having any success this season, and I don't think we are setting the bar high enough for a guy making $30 million a year. As I thought more about it, I too set the bar way too low above when I laid out what I think we need from DLO to be successful. I laid out goals that would make him only average in criteria I deem important. but we need our max player to be far more successful than that. It has to start with better effort on the defensive end, and continue on to being more efficient on the offensive end. I think DLO has the talent (and size) to perform as we need him to on both ends of the court, even though he hasn't put up winning stats to date. This has to be the year that he lives up to his potential and puts up positive numbers.

Lip and Cam, you both have said you think DLO is going to have a great year. Will raw stats (PPG, APG, etc) be enough for you guys to conclude he has had a great year, or do you also expect him to perform very well in some of the deeper, more analytical measures? Just curious, what kind of advanced numbers do you expect from DLO this season?

Let's go on the record! I'm going to say he improves this year, but not enough to justify a max salary:

ORtg: 112
DRtg: 115
TS% 56%
Slightly positive on/off

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I believe that so long as DLO and KAT are healthy and in the starting lineup, the sole metric they should be judged upon as individuals is Net Rating (Ortg-Drtg). They are the two vets on the team and at this point their combined output and leadership needs to start translating to winning basketball while they are on the floor. Of course one might then say wins should be the only measure, but I'm trying to narrow it down a bit to the individual which Ortg and Drtg do since it consists of only their time on the floor.

(And I'm using NBA.com version of Ortg and Drtg and Net rating, not basketball reference's).

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

This isn't necessarily a prediction, but rather several benchmarks that I think D'Angelo Russell can reach this season. And if he were to hit all or most of them, I think not only would Timberwolves fans be pleased, but the team itself would win more than they lost -- i.e. 42-plus wins. That's obviously assuming Karl-Anthony Towns also stays relatively healthy as it will take both of them to play competitive basketball.

70 regular season games played
2,240 total minutes (32.0 MPG)
1,573 points scored (22.5 PPG)
560 assists (8.0 APG)
280 rebounds (4.0 RPG)
70 steals (1.0 SPG)
524 field goals made (7.5 FGM)
1190 field goals attempted (17.0 FGA)
245 three-pointers made (3.5 3PM)
616 three-pointers attempted (8.8 3PA)
280 free throws made (4.0 FTM)
350 free throws attempted (5.0 FTA)
44.0 FG%
39.8 3P%
80.0 FT%
.585 TS%
3.0 - 4.0 BPM
3.0 - 4.0 VORP
+ 2.0 total RAPTOR

Many of the reasons why Russell could produce a season like this boil down to the quality of his teammates and the expectedly good health of his lower body. Less defensive attention on him, less pressure to carry the nightly scoring load, less ball-handling duties -- this should all result in way more quality looks for a near elite shot-maker. Not to mention, with three other shot-hunters surrounding him on the roster in Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Malik Beasley, Russell will adapt his game to theirs and facilitate the basketball more. Again, these numbers are not a prediction in the traditional sense, but rather marks that I can absolutely see him hitting this upcoming season.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I haven't seen this tidbit mentioned in this thread, but Malik Beasley was again open to the idea of coming off the bench in a likely sixth man type of role.

"We're just worried about winning. I'm not worried about what position I play or whether or not I start."

[Monster]

Some context when it comes to league average TS% the last few years.

https://aminoapps.com/c/nba/page/item/year-by-year-league-average-ts/wKgr_EQQspIBPl0l71boaZNMVpbqLvabKb0

2011 .541
2012 .527
2013 .535
2014 .541
2015 .534
2016 .541
2017 .552
2018 .556
2019 .560
2020 .563
2021 .572

Also when we look at Russell's TS% (about 55.5% the last 2 seasons) it might be worthwhile comparing it to perimeter players not bigs that that live mostly in the paint but I'm open to someone digging further into that if they are interested.

Also the biggest thing I'm look at when it comes to Russell being a worthwhile player if healthy is wins.

I agree, monster that we need to compare DLO's TS% to other guards when measuring efficiency because bigs generally have higher TS% than guards. DLO's career 53% is below the average efficiency for NBA guards, and his (admittedly improved) 55.5 % is still below the league average of 55.8%. TS% is not the be all and end all for measuring performance and it's true DLO is talented at getting his shot off, but I want (and we need) our max salary guard to at least be average in TS%.

Monster, I take issue with your bolded comment above. Should team wins be the most important stat in evaluating a player's worth? The Wolves won 47 games in 2017-8, certainly a very good year for them in terms of wins. But Andrew Wiggins put up DLO-like stats that season: ORtg 101,DRtg 113, 50.5 TS%, a slightly positive on/off number. Should we conclude that Wig had a worthwhile season because the team won?

That's my point here. As I've said before, getting substantial improvement out of a guard who consumes 1/4 of our payroll is critical to this team having any success this season, and I don't think we are setting the bar high enough for a guy making $30 million a year. As I thought more about it, I too set the bar way too low above when I laid out what I think we need from DLO to be successful. I laid out goals that would make him only average in criteria I deem important. but we need our max player to be far more successful than that. It has to start with better effort on the defensive end, and continue on to being more efficient on the offensive end. I think DLO has the talent (and size) to perform as we need him to on both ends of the court, even though he hasn't put up winning stats to date. This has to be the year that he lives up to his potential and puts up positive numbers.

Lip and Cam, you both have said you think DLO is going to have a great year. Will raw stats (PPG, APG, etc) be enough for you guys to conclude he has had a great year, or do you also expect him to perform very well in some of the deeper, more analytical measures? Just curious, what kind of advanced numbers do you expect from DLO this season?

Let's go on the record! I'm going to say he improves this year, but not enough to justify a max salary:

ORtg: 112
DRtg: 115
TS% 56%
Slightly positive on/off

Looks like that TS percentage you are hoping for is pretty realistic.

I don't measure Russell as a valuable player to the wolves (especially if it's helping them win games and I'm pretty sure that's the whole point) in terms of success in whether or not he plays well enough to be a max player. If Russell plays well enough by whatever measure to be worth say a legitimate 20 million salary that's going to be a pretty good player and should help the team win or be competitive. There are plenty of other guys that can outperform their contracts on this roster including Towns if he has a monster season. Again the biggest key for Russell is staying healthy. After that to me he is like my going to have value it's just how much value. I doubt he will play well enough to be a max player but that's not a failure to me a 25 million dollar player (if you want to get a little carried way in optimism but not too much) is pretty good too. I'll be perfectly fine if he finishes within .3% of the league average for guards in terms of TS%.

Again to me a lot of whether Russell and the team have success does fall on whether or not Finch is the good coach many feel he will be. Note during Media day with Nathan Knight this point was brought up and he said there was a change around the team when there was a coaching change. No personnel moves just the coaching change sand something shifted. Lloyd Pierce was 14-20 and McMillen was 27-11 and then they went on to lose in the ECF to the NBA champions in 6 games. I'm not suggesting that kind of a turnaround with Finch and this young roster but there is another example of it happening and there were 2 of them last season including Thibs Knicks turnaround.

[60WinTim]

Another twitter tidbit yesterday, I think it was Dane, was Layman grouped with Vando and Prince (the PF group), but McDaniels working with guards and wings.

I am liking that concept!