Minnesota Sports Forum

Ok. Let's change it up a bit...

I'm predicting the Wolves finish 10th in a conference where every team is exactly the same with injuries/health. And in that type of setting... I'm also predicting...

36 wins. ;-)

Here is the latest update:

60WinTim - 51
TheSP - 50
crazysauce, Lipoli - 46
lead01, cpg29 - 45
thedoper - 44
kekgeek, Phenom - 43
rapsuperstar, Camden - 42
KiwiMatt - 41
worldK - 40
Mikkeman - 39
Monsterpile - 38
Bleed, Cool - 37
Abe, TheFuture - 36
Jester, FNG - 35
Q - 34
PorkChop - 32
WolvesFan - 29
mrhockey - 28

The range has widened a bit!

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Ok. Let's change it up a bit...

I'm predicting the Wolves finish 10th in a conference where every team is exactly the same with injuries/health. And in that type of setting... I'm also predicting...

36 wins. ;-)

Wait, so 36 is your prediction either assuming normal injuries (with presumed variance between teams) or assuming exactly the same injury results for each team? I think that's wildly optimistic...I'm going 35 wins in both cases.

(I think I see where you went wrong with your prediction. You probably have us winning the 12/17 home game against the Lakers, and I see it as an almost certain loss. I mean, come on...LeBron, AD, Westbrook. How can you have that as a win? I'm sure you can see that 35 is the correct prediction.)

FNG wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Ok. Let's change it up a bit...

I'm predicting the Wolves finish 10th in a conference where every team is exactly the same with injuries/health. And in that type of setting... I'm also predicting...

36 wins. ;-)

Wait, so 36 is your prediction either assuming normal injuries (with presumed variance between teams) or assuming exactly the same injury results for each team? I think that's wildly optimistic...I'm going 35 wins in both cases.

(I think I see where you went wrong with your prediction. You probably have us winning the 12/17 home game against the Lakers, and I see it as an almost certain loss. I mean, come on...LeBron, AD, Westbrook. How can you have that as a win? I'm sure you can see that 35 is the correct prediction.)

No. I'm not counting injuries nor fouls.

Even though Karl Anthony-Towns has been a league leader in fouls (led the league 2x)... I felt it was unfair to assume he'd continue that career trend. So I did not account for him sitting extended stretches after picking up 3 quick offensive fouls after simply turning around to face the hoop moments after being pushed, shoved and groped in the post by a much smaller player who suddenly suffers whiplash flying to the ground when Towns faces up.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

FNG wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Ok. Let's change it up a bit...

I'm predicting the Wolves finish 10th in a conference where every team is exactly the same with injuries/health. And in that type of setting... I'm also predicting...

36 wins. ;-)

Wait, so 36 is your prediction either assuming normal injuries (with presumed variance between teams) or assuming exactly the same injury results for each team? I think that's wildly optimistic...I'm going 35 wins in both cases.

(I think I see where you went wrong with your prediction. You probably have us winning the 12/17 home game against the Lakers, and I see it as an almost certain loss. I mean, come on...LeBron, AD, Westbrook. How can you have that as a win? I'm sure you can see that 35 is the correct prediction.)

No. I'm not counting injuries nor fouls.

Even though Karl Anthony-Towns has been a league leader in fouls (led the league 2x)... I felt it was unfair to assume he'd continue that career trend. So I did not account for him sitting extended stretches after picking up 3 quick offensive fouls after simply turning around to face the hoop moments after being pushed, shoved and groped in the post by a much smaller player who suddenly suffers whiplash flying to the ground when Towns faces up.

Hmm...I admit I had not taken that factor into account. I may have to appeal to the Q-ster to reevaluate and resubmit my forecast. I believe I have until tipoff on opening night.

FNG wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

FNG wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Ok. Let's change it up a bit...

I'm predicting the Wolves finish 10th in a conference where every team is exactly the same with injuries/health. And in that type of setting... I'm also predicting...

36 wins. ;-)

Wait, so 36 is your prediction either assuming normal injuries (with presumed variance between teams) or assuming exactly the same injury results for each team? I think that's wildly optimistic...I'm going 35 wins in both cases.

(I think I see where you went wrong with your prediction. You probably have us winning the 12/17 home game against the Lakers, and I see it as an almost certain loss. I mean, come on...LeBron, AD, Westbrook. How can you have that as a win? I'm sure you can see that 35 is the correct prediction.)

No. I'm not counting injuries nor fouls.

Even though Karl Anthony-Towns has been a league leader in fouls (led the league 2x)... I felt it was unfair to assume he'd continue that career trend. So I did not account for him sitting extended stretches after picking up 3 quick offensive fouls after simply turning around to face the hoop moments after being pushed, shoved and groped in the post by a much smaller player who suddenly suffers whiplash flying to the ground when Towns faces up.

Hmm...I admit I had not taken that factor into account. I may have to appeal to the Q-ster to reevaluate and resubmit my forecast. I believe I have until tipoff on opening night.

Q-ster...that's a new one. No more changes though! Folks need to factor in the information they have and forecast various eventualities to come up with a prediction, e.g. injuries, a Simmons trade, LeBron and AD resting against the Wolves, TheSP playing backup Center, etc....

On the fouls thing with KAT, that's reason #132 why getting a legit big - even for token starter minutes - made a lot of sense to me: It protects KAT from foul trouble.

Camden wrote:I definitely understand the pessimism that involves predicting injuries. It seems like this franchise gets killed by them year after year. I just think that's an arbitrary element factoring into the equation. I wish we could have a prediction thread that only accounts for the talent on the roster, or at least those that are accounting for injuries include what the win total would be if players stay relatively healthy. That would give me a better inclination of what you actually thought of the roster rather than guesstimating injuries and missed games.

But Cam, you have to factor in availability. It's one of the biggest factors, if not THE biggest factor. I despise Steve Kerr, but I was listening to his thoughts the other day on Wiggins. He said he's a very good player, but part of what makes him good is he's always available. Wig is a very good (not max guy) player, but knowing he is going to line up and give it a go every night is huge.

So I would have to disagree with your statement that injuries are an arbitrary element in this equation. One thing that has driven me crazy this offseason is how much love the Nets are getting. Pretty much everyone agrees that if they can stay healthy they would be the hands down favorites in the East. But the problem is what are the true chances of their stars being available enough to reach that goal. Kyrie won't get the shot so he can't play home games, he can't even practice. How would that ever work in the playoffs? Is Harden and his hamstring going to survive 80 games this year? Highly doubtful. Durant has the best chance to play every night, but there is no guarantee there either. Too many people think in a vaccuum (prognosticators) and it's just not realistic.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

Camden wrote:I definitely understand the pessimism that involves predicting injuries. It seems like this franchise gets killed by them year after year. I just think that's an arbitrary element factoring into the equation. I wish we could have a prediction thread that only accounts for the talent on the roster, or at least those that are accounting for injuries include what the win total would be if players stay relatively healthy. That would give me a better inclination of what you actually thought of the roster rather than guesstimating injuries and missed games.

But Cam, you have to factor in availability. It's one of the biggest factors, if not THE biggest factor. I despise Steve Kerr, but I was listening to his thoughts the other day on Wiggins. He said he's a very good player, but part of what makes him good is he's always available. Wig is a very good (not max guy) player, but knowing he is going to line up and give it a go every night is huge.

So I would have to disagree with your statement that injuries are an arbitrary element in this equation. One thing that has driven me crazy this offseason is how much love the Nets are getting. Pretty much everyone agrees that if they can stay healthy they would be the hands down favorites in the East. But the problem is what are the true chances of their stars being available enough to reach that goal. Kyrie won't get the shot so he can't play home games, he can't even practice. How would that ever work in the playoffs? Is Harden and his hamstring going to survive 80 games this year? Highly doubtful. Durant has the best chance to play every night, but there is no guarantee there either. Too many people think in a vaccuum (prognosticators) and it's just not realistic.

To be fair, Harden has a pretty solid history of answering the bell in his career. He missed only 20 games over the previous 6 seasons.

As for Kyrie... that's a different story. He's a loon.

But really, Brooklyn only needs two of the big three to be a very very good team. They nearly took out the World Champs with only one healthy star.

And I think the Nets started out at 55.5. I think that number actually does account for quite a few missed games.

The Vegas number had increased to 35.5 wins

kekgeek1 wrote:The Vegas number had increased to 35.5 wins

Thanks for that, kek. That means FNG is taking the under. :)