Minnesota Sports Forum

I was only one game off...that kinda sucks. Oh well it could have been worse in terms of how many games we lost. Seriously all things considered this team won 37 games? That's not terrible.

monsterpile wrote:I was only one game off...that kinda sucks. Oh well it could have been worse in terms of how many games we lost. Seriously all things considered this team won 37 games? That's not terrible.

Official record was 36 wins though. Maybe you were already counting last game against Denver as a win when they were 11 points up late in 4th quarter.

Take comfort in the fact it's a top 3 successful year in over a decade

Logo wrote:Thanks

I will be watching my mailbox for my prize.

Here is your prize-

:thumb:

Mikkeman wrote:

monsterpile wrote:I was only one game off...that kinda sucks. Oh well it could have been worse in terms of how many games we lost. Seriously all things considered this team won 37 games? That's not terrible.

Official record was 36 wins though. Maybe you were already counting last game against Denver as a win when they were 11 points up late in 4th quarter.

I looked back at the predictions from previous years and...heck I've been doing pretty good. I've got a friend going to Vegas I'm a couple days...no I'm not gonna do it. Lol

Ok, I lied. I said I was too lazy to audit Cam's assertion that this board's previous forecasts were not overly optimistic, but I can't help myself...I'm a rube with a not very busy Sunday.

Turns out Q did most of the work for me. Here's how actual wins compared to our median prediction in the past (as summarized earlier in this thread).

2020-21: Actual 23 Forecast 35
2019-20: N/A because of Covid. Let's just say nobody predicted fewer than the actual 19 wins!
2018-9: 36, 40
2017-8: 47,49
2016-7:31, 45
2015-6: 29,35

So throwing out 2019-20 Covid-impacted season, this board averaged almost 8 more predicted wins than the Wolves' actual total! If you throw out the Butler year (because me assertion is the Wolves need to trade for a star, and that was the only year in which we did so), we were over 9 games too optimistic. On a percentage basis, that's a very significant average miss.

Why am I going through this exercise? To demonstrate that even with a group of very good NBA minds (and I mean that...this board knows buckets), human nature forces us to have rose-colored glasses when we evaluate our own team. We over-value our own players, and we always think we are going to do better than we eventually do. And now it's 2021, and we are doing it again. 4 smart posters have weighed in with the existing roster challenging for a playoff spot, while Vegas has us over 10 games worse at 33.5 wins.

As they say in the brokerage biz, past performance is not a predictor of the future. But the data here is quite compelling, and a smart bettor would predict the Vegas wins line is better than ours.

So, do we want another season of not even sniffing the playoffs, or do we want Rosas to do whatever it takes to bring in Simmons and improve this roster? I think the answer is pretty obvious.

(Note...I will not accept an answer that we are smarter now, so the past doesn't matter. Come on guys, the evidence is clear that we are consistently over-optimistic about our beloved Wolves).

Context matters, but never to FNG! You really have to respect the determination to completely ignore the circumstances of a matter. It's applaudable in a way.

Camden wrote:Context matters, but never to FNG! You really have to respect the determination to completely ignore the circumstances of a matter. It's applaudable in a way.

But when "circumstances" occur year after year and we consistently are overly optimistic year after year, isn't it logical that the real factor here is rose-colored glasses and human nature, not circumstances? What are these circumstances, and how can we be so sure that 2021-2 is any different? Shit happens, right...and our Wolves are not exempt. Logic tells me that the Vegas win projection is probably quite accurate as it generally is with our Wolves, and we will be 8-10 wins too high again.

Cam, I note that you tend to avoid these prediction threads (the one year you participated, you were 6 games too optimistic...granted, a little more accurate than most here!). Your own words in your only post in this thread speak to the over-optimism that exists year after year, and why that keeps you out of the contest:

"I tend to skip out on these predictions for fear of being too optimistic, and somehow I feel like if I were to make a prediction, it'd be on the pessimistic side." And yet you couldn't bring yourself to make that prediction. Few of us can...we so desperately want this team to be better. We're fans and we're human, and it colors our objectivity ever year.

Q, you out there? You tend to be a little more balanced when it comes to our Wolves than most of us homeric rubes here. What are your thoughts about whether this board tends to be optimistic or pessimistic when it comes to our Local Five, and how good do you think the Vegas line is this year?

My prediction for the Wolves this upcoming season? 60 wins! Too optimistic? OK, how about 50? Still too optimistic? I'll try to be a bit more realistic.

I'll predict a record of 44-38, assuming that KAT, DLO and Ant are healthy and on the court for the vast majority of the season. Some of my reasoning:

1. The improvement of our two talented rookies, Edwards and McDaniels, after a full off-season and training camp.

2., The improvement of our secondary rookie, Vanderbilt, and our young backup center, Naz Reid.

3. KAT's improvement as he enters his prime and also comes into the season healthy and a year removed from his family tragedy. I expect him to be better on the defensive side of the ball as well based on his defensive improvement last season.

4. The addition of Beverley, a true 3 & D player with vet savvy and mental toughness, should be a significant upgrade over last season. And Prince's three-point shooting should be a net positive as well.

5. Having a healthy DLO for most of the season in contrast to last season when he missed a lot of games and probably played hurt most or all of the season before his surgery.

6. Having a healthy Beasley for a larger percentage of games than last season, assuming he stays out of jail. :)

The Suns nearly doubled their win total from the 2018-19 season to the 2019-20 season. They did that without adding any significant pieces between those two seasons. Their improvement resulted from the improvement of two rookies, Ayton and Bridges, in their second season, and improvement from Booker. The Wolves situation is nearly identical without two talented rookies entering their second season and with Edwards already on an upward trajectory and with KAT entering the prime of his career.

lipoli390 wrote:My prediction for the Wolves this upcoming season? 60 wins! Too optimistic? OK, how about 50? Still too optimistic? I'll try to be a bit more realistic.

I'll predict a record of 44-38, assuming that KAT, DLO and Ant are healthy and on the court for the vast majority of the season. Some of my reasoning:

1. The improvement of our two talented rookies, Edwards and McDaniels, after a full off-season and training camp.

2., The improvement of our secondary rookie, Vanderbilt, and our young backup center, Naz Reid.

3. KAT's improvement as he enters his prime and also comes into the season healthy and a year removed from his family tragedy. I expect him to be better on the defensive side of the ball as well based on his defensive improvement last season.

4. The addition of Beverley, a true 3 & D player with vet savvy and mental toughness, should be a significant upgrade over last season. And Prince's three-point shooting should be a net positive as well.

5. Having a healthy DLO for most of the season in contrast to last season when he missed a lot of games and probably played hurt most or all of the season before his surgery.

6. Having a healthy Beasley for a larger percentage of games than last season, assuming he stays out of jail. :)

The Suns nearly doubled their win total from the 2018-19 season to the 2019-20 season. They did that without adding any significant pieces between those two seasons. Their improvement resulted from the improvement of two rookies, Ayton and Bridges, in their second season, and improvement from Booker. The Wolves situation is nearly identical without two talented rookies entering their second season and with Edwards already on an upward trajectory and with KAT entering the prime of his career.

Actually Lip the Suns added 2 pretty significant people to help with that win total. Monte Williams and Ricky Rubio. Let's remember that the Suns were starting playing below replacement level players at PG (much less the guys behind them that season and Monte Williams looks to be a really good coach.

The Wolves have POTENTIALLY half of that equation IF Finch is even pretty good. Honesty if there is a source of optimism about this team that might be the most unfounded is the belief in Finch. I personally like Finch and do think there is reason for optimism but it's not a sure thing he is going to even me decent. All I'm saying is the jury should still be out on him. As I have said a few times IF Saunders was really bad as a head coach as most of us think and Finch is good that's gonna be big. Monte Williams looks like a HR hire. If Finch is a HR hire for the Wolves it's going to make a lot of players better and the team as a whole something we haven't seen in quite a few years.