The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

[Q-is-here]

The other thing Johnny K. pointed out in the podcast with Dane Moore is that sometimes patience pays off, even when everyone knows something needs to happen eventually. The example he used was the DLO trade, where you have a Laker team desperate to add some firepower and a Utah team continuing to try to pile up future assets, and Minnesota ends up with a better return for DLO than what they would have received if they had traded him in the prior offseason.

I guess if the Rudy-KAT-Ant-Jaden quartet end up being wildly successful, perhaps the Wolves end up being a destination for those vets squeezed out of the middle class and wanting to play for a real winner. And if they aren't very successful, then you move Rudy or KAT.

But yeah, the sense from Johnny K. is that nothing is imminent this offseason in terms of moving KAT or Rudy. If a great deal comes around, they'll listen to it. But they aren't forcing the issue.

[Q-is-here]

Oh, and the other thing that Jonny K astutely pointed out was that the '21-'22 team had pretty much reached its ceiling in his opinion. The evidence he pointed to was that as the Lakers progressed through the early rounds of the playoffs and finally reached the WCF, guess who was on the bench late in those games when every possession on both ends were life or death? DLO, Vando, and Beasley - three guys the Wolves relied on HEAVILY in the prior year. Instead other guys on similar or lower salaries were on the floor with LeBron and AD.

Dane countered that the Wolves still could have moved on from those guys, signed a mid-level type big Center (of course Kessler turned into that type of player as a rookie!), and then kept all those 1st rounders in tact. Touché.

Gobert has won playoff series as probably the 1st or 2nd most impactful player on multiple Utah teams. Now he is expected to be the 3rd most impactful player (may be sometimes 2nd most depending on matchups) and we don't think we can get out of the 1st round!?! That's not a Rudy problem in my opinion.

[Lipoli390]

On McDaniels, Mikal Bridges seems like a pretty good comp -- we would be very happy if McDaniels could achieve that kind of production and impact. Bridges just signed his rookie extension last year, 4 year 90 mil, with the first year starting at 20.1 mil. That's the kind of deal I would expect for McDaniels. Maybe even a bit less.

The cap situation in 2024-25 is still difficult, but navigating may not be as difficult as you are portraying.

If the Wolves were world champions this season and could bring back their core six in 2024 at $167 million like the Nuggets can do at $163 million, then I’d still be concerned but less so. But the core six for the Wolves I’m talking about won 42 games, lost their first play-in game and got knocked out in the first round. Moreover, the top six I assumed doesn’t include our two best bench players, Slo Mo and Prince. Further, my top six payroll for the Wolves in 2024 doesn’t include Naz or the use of the MLE this summer or next. Finally, all of our main Western Conference rivals except Denver will have a lot more room to maneuver under the second apron and all of our main rivals except the Suns will have more 1st round picks than the Wolves over the next six years. The road might not be as difficult to navigate as I’m suggesting, but keeping both Rudy and KAT would put us in a position that still strikes me as untenable.

[Lipoli390]

Oh, and the other thing that Jonny K astutely pointed out was that the '21-'22 team had pretty much reached its ceiling in his opinion. The evidence he pointed to was that as the Lakers progressed through the early rounds of the playoffs and finally reached the WCF, guess who was on the bench late in those games when every possession on both ends were life or death? DLO, Vando, and Beasley - three guys the Wolves relied on HEAVILY in the prior year. Instead other guys on similar or lower salaries were on the floor with LeBron and AD.

Dane countered that the Wolves still could have moved on from those guys, signed a mid-level type big Center (of course Kessler turned into that type of player as a rookie!), and then kept all those 1st rounders in tact. Touché.

Gobert has won playoff series as probably the 1st or 2nd most impactful player on multiple Utah teams. Now he is expected to be the 3rd most impactful player (may be sometimes 2nd most depending on matchups) and we don't think we can get out of the 1st round!?! That's not a Rudy problem in my opinion.

Sounds like a good discussion between Jon K and Dane. But there’s really no credible argument that the Gobert deal was a good one - even if you believe Rudy will make the team better. He just won’t make enough of a difference to be worth all the assets used to get him. My idea was never to continue relying on Pat Bev and Vando as starters or hold onto Beasley indefinitely. My thought was that Vando and Pat Bev should eventually be energy guys off the bench. We could have improved the team with cap exceptions, draft picks and possibly trading Beasley as well as possibly trading Vando and/or Pat Bev. And of course, Kessler would have been a big positive long term.

As for what Rudy did at Utah, my first response is that he wasn’t paired with another starting center. A core problem with Rudy here in my view is that he’s not a good fit with KAT. I’ll add that Rudy was in his prime with the Jazz. He’s now in his 30s and you never know what happens after that.

I recognize the value of patience. For example, I never thought the Wolves should be in a hurry to trade DLO. But I see mainly downside in waiting to trade one of our bigs.

[Lipoli390]

Oh, and the other thing that Jonny K astutely pointed out was that the '21-'22 team had pretty much reached its ceiling in his opinion. The evidence he pointed to was that as the Lakers progressed through the early rounds of the playoffs and finally reached the WCF, guess who was on the bench late in those games when every possession on both ends were life or death? DLO, Vando, and Beasley - three guys the Wolves relied on HEAVILY in the prior year. Instead other guys on similar or lower salaries were on the floor with LeBron and AD.

Dane countered that the Wolves still could have moved on from those guys, signed a mid-level type big Center (of course Kessler turned into that type of player as a rookie!), and then kept all those 1st rounders in tact. Touché.

Gobert has won playoff series as probably the 1st or 2nd most impactful player on multiple Utah teams. Now he is expected to be the 3rd most impactful player (may be sometimes 2nd most depending on matchups) and we don't think we can get out of the 1st round!?! That's not a Rudy problem in my opinion.

Another thought on Jon K’s assertion that the 2021-22 team had reached its ceiling. Edwards and Jaden weren’t nearly as good that season as the were this past season. So I don’t think Jon’s point is astute at all. That Wolves team won 46 games with versions of Edwards and Jaden that were inferior to the versions we saw last season and those two will continue to improve. Moreover, teams tend to get better the longer they play together and that tendency alone suggests the team hadn’t reached its ceiling. Finally, there’s the reality that the Wolves had assets to improve the team without giving up Pat Bev or Vando, much less giving up anything close to Kessler and four future unprotected first-round picks. It seems like Jon K is trying to put lipstick on a pig - perhaps playing devils advocate or sucking up to Wolves front office executives. But when I look at the Gobert deal I still see a big ugly pig.

[TheFuture]

I don't care about the Gobert deal anymore. I did and will perceive it as an overpay, but I don't know his market value in NBA FO's.

I just believe KAT needs to be the one moved because right now his value is high enough due to his offensive talent, age, and locked in contract, but his attitude sucks on the court and I do not want to see that permeate around ANT and Jaden. He will undoubtedly succeed somewhere where the culture is set, but he is not a tone setter. KAT as the guy is done. He doesn't know that, but he is not a guy you spend $50 mil on a year. He himself doesn't know what position he is best at, and now I don't even know.

Rudy is what he is, and I think having a distinct role is best for the team.

Conley, Ant, Jaden, Anderson, Prince, Rudy, NAW, Reid is a gritty team. In my opinion, KAT does not fit that style.

It is pretty simple to me. Utilize KAT to get the following: multiple picks, one youngish vet pg or pf/C, 1 or 2 prospects at guard or big, salary filler.

[kekgeek]

On McDaniels, Mikal Bridges seems like a pretty good comp -- we would be very happy if McDaniels could achieve that kind of production and impact. Bridges just signed his rookie extension last year, 4 year 90 mil, with the first year starting at 20.1 mil. That's the kind of deal I would expect for McDaniels. Maybe even a bit less.

The cap situation in 2024-25 is still difficult, but navigating may not be as difficult as you are portraying.

If the Wolves were world champions this season and could bring back their core six in 2024 at $167 million like the Nuggets can do at $163 million, then I’d still be concerned but less so. But the core six for the Wolves I’m talking about won 42 games, lost their first play-in game and got knocked out in the first round. Moreover, the top six I assumed doesn’t include our two best bench players, Slo Mo and Prince. Further, my top six payroll for the Wolves in 2024 doesn’t include Naz or the use of the MLE this summer or next. Finally, all of our main Western Conference rivals except Denver will have a lot more room to maneuver under the second apron and all of our main rivals except the Suns will have more 1st round picks than the Wolves over the next six years. The road might not be as difficult to navigate as I’m suggesting, but keeping both Rudy and KAT would put us in a position that still strikes me as untenable.

Your core 6 played a total of 16 games together this year out of 89 games the wolves played this year. So 17.9% of games your core 6 played. This year core 6 missed 113 games (not including playoffs). Last years team core 6 missed 54 total games, the core 7 missed 57 games last year. So this years core 6 missed double the games as the 21-22 teams for 7 did.

Context still matters when comparing both of these years.

[FNG]

I think Tim has done a good job of demonstrating that, while keeping the core together will force Lore to pay lux tax (if he is willing), TC can keep us under the apron without a great deal of difficulty. Unfortunately signing Naz to a multi-year contract is not an option if he wants to stay under the apron in 2024-5 while keeping our core 6. I also think only one of NAW and Prince will still be on the roster in 2024-5. I don't see either of these developments as significant losses, and would even argue that losing Naz would be addition by subtraction.

Mike Conley was quite effective after he joined us last season and has said he intends to play until he is 40. Where he plays is up in the air. We would not be able to fit him into our salary structure in 24-5 without him making a significant concession, but I don't see that as out of the question. Mike has no financial worries, will not be a sought after free agent at his advanced age, and unlike many NBA stars, is an avowed family man. He has said that he is looking forward to he and his wife raising their three young boys in the Twin Cities, and I think he will be more than happy to stay with a winning team with a vet minimum contract at age 37.

We may still see TC make a major move this summer, but I think that would signal an edict from ownership that they will not pay lux tax...not that TC doesn't think this roster can win a championship.

[Sundog]

I’m with Lip to the extent that I think the Wolves should move one of the big fellas this summer — he has a strong opinion that it should be Rudy, but I’m more ambivalent, pluses and minuses with either path (although, if I’m honest, I’d lean to trading KAT… but that might only be a reaction to how insistent Lip is that it be Rudy, lol).

But as much as I’d like to see if this two big experiment could have worked (and I think it could), running it back would be the Wolves pathetic version of “The Last Dance.” The team would have to be broken up at the end of the season to avoid the death penalty impacts of the new CBA. At that point, the entire league knows the Wolves would be desperate and it’d be impossible to get value. Make the move this summer, reorient around Ant and Jaden and let’s go.

[Carlos Danger]

60WinTim is crunching all the numbers and making me feel less anxious. My vision is to bring back KAT and Rudy to start the year. Then make your trade(s) at the deadline if the situation warrants it (we are not contending).

We have our own pick this year. If things don't work out with KAT/Rudy - at least we'll have a good pick