Did Dilly Grow? - Wolves at Thunder GDT

[FNG]

The Wolves scored 105 points last. That’s not going to win many games in the NBA. We can talk about the turnovers, the flopping, etc. But when the smoke clears, it’s the same core problem - i.e., this team doesn’t score at the level necessary to be a legitimate championship contender. Last I looked, the Wolves were 23rd of 30 teams in points per game.

SGA had 40 points on 65% FG shooing. There’s simply no way Jaden can be praised for his defense in this game. Meanwhile, he scored only 7 points on 1-5 shooting from behind the arc with 6 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals and 3 turnovers. Jaden has turned from one of this team’s great hopes to one of its main problems. I love watching Donte play, but he was 3-10 from the field in this game. That’s unacceptable for a guy whose main value is shooting.

Yep, as I said above, Donte's shooting is becoming somewhat of a barometer for our winning...we swept the Texas teams because he was making his threes, and his poor shooting last night was a factor in the loss. I will say that I thought Donte was mostly a shooter when we traded for him, but he's shown me a lot more...he's an excellent defender, he moves without the ball constantly, he makes quick facilitating decisions, and he's a surprisingly good rebounder. But yeah, we could have used some better shooting from him last night.

[Q-is-here]

The biggest issue with our offense is the turnovers and last night it was the main reason why we lost. We actually shot the ball better than the Thunder and out-rebounded them. But 23 TOs to 9 TOs is insane!

We are 28th in the NBA in Turnover %, meaning the percent of possessions that end with a turnover. NAW, Donte, and Julius all have a higher turnover % than their career averages. When we don't turn it over, we're actually a pretty decent offense in terms of our effective FG% (11th in the NBA). I blame it on lack of a reliable PG to share minutes with Conley and so it's NAW/DDV/Randle taking on more PG duties than otherwise would be required of them.

It's really tempting to call for more Dillingham, but he brings a different set of problems (and he's turned it over at a high rate as well!).

A lot of folks have thought we need a backup C so that our defense holds up when Rudy sits. I would much rather see us acquire a PG that either moves Conley to the bench or can back him up as his equivalent.

[Lipoli390]

The biggest issue with our offense is the turnovers and last night it was the main reason why we lost. We actually shot the ball better than the Thunder and out-rebounded them. But 23 TOs to 9 TOs is insane!

We are 28th in the NBA in Turnover %, meaning the percent of possessions that end with a turnover. NAW, Donte, and Julius all have a higher turnover % than their career averages. When we don't turn it over, we're actually a pretty decent offense in terms of our effective FG% (11th in the NBA). I blame it on lack of a reliable PG to share minutes with Conley and so it's NAW/DDV/Randle taking on more PG duties than otherwise would be required of them.

It's really tempting to call for more Dillingham, but he brings a different set of problems (and he's turned it over at a high rate as well!).

A lot of folks have thought we need a backup C so that our defense holds up when Rudy sits. I would much rather see us acquire a PG that either moves Conley to the bench or can back him up as his equivalent.

I wish our offensive fix simply boiled down to having a better backup PG for Conley. But I think the root of our offensive woes has multiple layers. Those layers include having two non-threats offensively in our starting lineup and having two lane clogging bigs in our starting lineup, which substantially limits the effectiveness of our best player who also happens to be our one offensive star. And while a better backup PG would be helpful, we have a major problem with our starting PG who has not been consistently productive to say the least. I don’t see a better backup PG catapulting us from near the bottom of the League in PPG to somewhere well into the top half where we need to be to be a viable competitor.

The turnover problem itself is multi-faceted - a center with uniquely bad hands; a turnover prone PF; a SF with a high dribble and resulting loose handle; and a star SG who is still frustratingly careless with the ball. In fairness to Ant, I’d say that many of his turnovers result from the poor mix of players around him, denying him the space he needs to operate effectively. When you have a star SG like Ant, you build your roster around him. The Bulls built around MJ, the Lakers build around Kobe, and the Heat built around Wade. It’s a travesty that the Wolves organization has failed to build optimally around Ant. Trading KAT for Randle made the fit even worse and we’re seeing the results.

It’s always tempting to reduce a problem to one simple equation or in this case a single cause. And I wish this team’s core offensive problem could be reduced to getting a better backup PG, but I don’t see it that way.

[Q-is-here]

The biggest issue with our offense is the turnovers and last night it was the main reason why we lost. We actually shot the ball better than the Thunder and out-rebounded them. But 23 TOs to 9 TOs is insane!

We are 28th in the NBA in Turnover %, meaning the percent of possessions that end with a turnover. NAW, Donte, and Julius all have a higher turnover % than their career averages. When we don't turn it over, we're actually a pretty decent offense in terms of our effective FG% (11th in the NBA). I blame it on lack of a reliable PG to share minutes with Conley and so it's NAW/DDV/Randle taking on more PG duties than otherwise would be required of them.

It's really tempting to call for more Dillingham, but he brings a different set of problems (and he's turned it over at a high rate as well!).

A lot of folks have thought we need a backup C so that our defense holds up when Rudy sits. I would much rather see us acquire a PG that either moves Conley to the bench or can back him up as his equivalent.

I wish our offensive fix simply boiled down to having a better backup PG for Conley. But I think the root of our offensive woes has multiple layers. Those layers include having two non-threats offensively in our starting lineup and having two lane clogging bigs in our starting lineup, which substantially limits the effectiveness of our best player who also happens to be our one offensive star. And while a better backup PG would be helpful, we have a major problem with our starting PG who has not been consistently productive to say the least. I don’t see a better backup PG catapulting us from near the bottom of the League in PPG to somewhere well into the top half where we need to be to be a viable competitor.

The turnover problem itself is multi-faceted - a center with uniquely bad hands; a turnover prone PF; a SF with a high dribble and resulting loose handle; and a star SG who is still frustratingly careless with the ball. In fairness to Ant, I’d say that many of his turnovers result from the poor mix of players around him, denying him the space he needs to operate effectively. When you have a star SG like Ant, you build your roster around him. The Bulls built around MJ, the Lakers build around Kobe, and the Heat built around Wade. It’s a travesty that the Wolves organization has failed to build optimally around Ant. Trading KAT for Randle made the fit even worse and we’re seeing the results.

It’s always tempting to reduce a problem to one simple equation or in this case a single cause. And I wish this team’s core offensive problem could be reduced to getting a better backup PG, but I don’t see it that way.

I agree it's not just TOs, but I believe the lack of having a real PG on the floor at all times sort of has a cascading impact on people's roles, which in turn leads to more TOs.

And you are preaching to the choir when it comes to spacing.

[Lipoli390]

The biggest issue with our offense is the turnovers and last night it was the main reason why we lost. We actually shot the ball better than the Thunder and out-rebounded them. But 23 TOs to 9 TOs is insane!

We are 28th in the NBA in Turnover %, meaning the percent of possessions that end with a turnover. NAW, Donte, and Julius all have a higher turnover % than their career averages. When we don't turn it over, we're actually a pretty decent offense in terms of our effective FG% (11th in the NBA). I blame it on lack of a reliable PG to share minutes with Conley and so it's NAW/DDV/Randle taking on more PG duties than otherwise would be required of them.

It's really tempting to call for more Dillingham, but he brings a different set of problems (and he's turned it over at a high rate as well!).

A lot of folks have thought we need a backup C so that our defense holds up when Rudy sits. I would much rather see us acquire a PG that either moves Conley to the bench or can back him up as his equivalent.

I wish our offensive fix simply boiled down to having a better backup PG for Conley. But I think the root of our offensive woes has multiple layers. Those layers include having two non-threats offensively in our starting lineup and having two lane clogging bigs in our starting lineup, which substantially limits the effectiveness of our best player who also happens to be our one offensive star. And while a better backup PG would be helpful, we have a major problem with our starting PG who has not been consistently productive to say the least. I don’t see a better backup PG catapulting us from near the bottom of the League in PPG to somewhere well into the top half where we need to be to be a viable competitor.

The turnover problem itself is multi-faceted - a center with uniquely bad hands; a turnover prone PF; a SF with a high dribble and resulting loose handle; and a star SG who is still frustratingly careless with the ball. In fairness to Ant, I’d say that many of his turnovers result from the poor mix of players around him, denying him the space he needs to operate effectively. When you have a star SG like Ant, you build your roster around him. The Bulls built around MJ, the Lakers build around Kobe, and the Heat built around Wade. It’s a travesty that the Wolves organization has failed to build optimally around Ant. Trading KAT for Randle made the fit even worse and we’re seeing the results.

It’s always tempting to reduce a problem to one simple equation or in this case a single cause. And I wish this team’s core offensive problem could be reduced to getting a better backup PG, but I don’t see it that way.

I agree it's not just TOs, but I believe the lack of having a real PG on the floor at all times sort of has a cascading impact on people's roles, which in turn leads to more TOs.

And you are preaching to the choir when it comes to spacing.

I can’t dispute your point about the negative impact of not having a real PG on the floor at all times.

[FNG]

Finchie had some interesting comments about spacing issues yesterday that I completely agree with. There is a narrative that Ant's inability to get to the basket is due to having non-shooters around him. But Finchie says it has much more to do with movement than lack of shooting. Both Ant and Ju are slow decision makers and tend to hold the ball when they get it rather than making an immediate move...either a pass or a drive. This allows the defense to reset itself, and the lane becomes clogged.

SGA has no problem getting to the basket despite having at least two non-shooters next to him in the starting lineup...Hartenstein, who like Rudy, never takes a 3-pointer, and Wallace who is making fewer than 30% of his threes this season. Defenses can completely sag off of these two Thunder players and focus on SGA when he drives. So what is different? To Finchie's point, SGA reacts immediately after he gets the ball, rather than holding it like Ant and Ju. Defenses don't have time to reset, and it results in either SGA easily getting to the hoop or dumping the ball off for an easy two. OkC's 3-point shooting is no better than the Wolves' 3-point shooting...in fact, it's almost a full 3 percentage points worse. The problem with our spacing is the slow decision-making of Ju and Ant. Compare the ball movement and quick decision making of our reserves (DiVo is an especially quick decision maker) with that of our starters. There are no spacing issues when our reserves are on the floor because they move the ball, and the result is open 3-point shots and open lanes.

I will add though that while Ju is every bit as much of a ball stopper when he is on the court with Ant, he is a completely different player when he is on the court with the bench guys. Ant on the other hand is a slow decision maker regardless of who is out there with him. Our spacing issue is not lack of shooting...we rank 3rd in 3-point attempts and 9th in percentage...OkC in contrast ranks 20th in 3-point percentage! If Ant and Ju can make quicker decisions like SGA, our spacing issues will disappear.

[Q-is-here]

Finchie had some interesting comments about spacing issues yesterday that I completely agree with. There is a narrative that Ant's inability to get to the basket is due to having non-shooters around him. But Finchie says it has much more to do with movement than lack of shooting. Both Ant and Ju are slow decision makers and tend to hold the ball when they get it rather than making an immediate move...either a pass or a drive. This allows the defense to reset itself, and the lane becomes clogged.

SGA has no problem getting to the basket despite having at least two non-shooters next to him in the starting lineup...Hartenstein, who like Rudy, never takes a 3-pointer, and Wallace who is making fewer than 30% of his threes this season. Defenses can completely sag off of these two Thunder players and focus on SGA when he drives. So what is different? To Finchie's point, SGA reacts immediately after he gets the ball, rather than holding it like Ant and Ju. Defenses don't have time to reset, and it results in either SGA easily getting to the hoop or dumping the ball off for an easy two. OkC's 3-point shooting is no better than the Wolves' 3-point shooting...in fact, it's almost a full 3 percentage points worse. The problem with our spacing is the slow decision-making of Ju and Ant. Compare the ball movement and quick decision making of our reserves (DiVo is an especially quick decision maker) with that of our starters. There are no spacing issues when our reserves are on the floor because they move the ball, and the result is open 3-point shots and open lanes.

I will add though that while Ju is every bit as much of a ball stopper when he is on the court with Ant, he is a completely different player when he is on the court with the bench guys. Ant on the other hand is a slow decision maker regardless of who is out there with him. Our spacing issue is not lack of shooting...we rank 3rd in 3-point attempts and 9th in percentage...OkC in contrast ranks 20th in 3-point percentage! If Ant and Ju can make quicker decisions like SGA, our spacing issues will disappear.

FNG, you continue to wish for Ant to change in ways that just may not be possible. The Wolves have Finch plus six assistant coaches. You don't think they have spent countless hours with Ant reviewing film and trying to point out ways that he can improve his decision making?? Ant has been a project of Finch's for multiple years now. It's not like he's been through a carousel of coaches and never given any consistent feedback. At some point, you need to accept him for who he is rather than wishing for him to become something else. Either that, or you should advocate trading him.

As for SGA, he's just flat out better than Ant and 100% of other NBA players at maneuvering in small spaces (along with using his off arm to ward off defenders!). It's why he's an MVP candidate. I bet OKC wishes he could shoot the ball as well as Ant from 3. Then he'd probably be the best that ever played!

And as for the Wolves highly ranked 3-point shooting, did it not occur to you that Ant is largely the one responsible for that!? He takes 25% of the team's 3s and has become one of the best outside shooters in the NBA! The "problem" is that he's also one of the best downhill players in the NBA (which yes, requires more of a wind-up from him than SGA) and he plays most of his minutes with a front line that opposing defenses could care less about when they are behind the arc.

[FNG]

Q, yes I do want Ant to change. And it's clear that Finchie does too based on his post-game comments about our spacing issue. I suspect he knows Ant will never be SGA, but the change he (and I) are looking for is not that dramatic. Ant often takes 10-15 seconds at the top of the key to make any decision about how the play is going to develop, and that delay allows the defense to adjust. It's practically impossible for Ant to get to the rim at that point. There is a lot of talent on this roster, and I'm convinced our offense would thrive if Ant (and yes, sometimes Ju) didn't spend the first half of the shot clock making the job easier on the defense by not doing anything! Their 15 second delays are the primary reason I believe for the discouraging stat rapsuperstar provided a couple days ago...both of them rank in the bottom 10 players in the league in points per possession on Iso's! I agree that the coaching staff is trying to do everything they can to make Ant into a more team-oriented productive player rather than just an individual scorer, and I'm sure they are far more frustrated than I am. But I hold out some hope because Ant is still very young (as well as extraordinarily talented and athletic) and is still developing as a player...and meanwhile he is still scoring at a nice pace. I'm hoping the light bulb goes on soon and he learns what he needs to do to maximize his enormous potential. If so, I remain convinced this is a roster with championship potential. Meanwhile, lineups with Ant in them are kinda difficult to watch.

[Q-is-here]

Q, yes I do want Ant to change. And it's clear that Finchie does too based on his post-game comments about our spacing issue. I suspect he knows Ant will never be SGA, but the change he (and I) are looking for is not that dramatic. Ant often takes 10-15 seconds at the top of the key to make any decision about how the play is going to develop, and that delay allows the defense to adjust. It's practically impossible for Ant to get to the rim at that point. There is a lot of talent on this roster, and I'm convinced our offense would thrive if Ant (and yes, sometimes Ju) didn't spend the first half of the shot clock making the job easier on the defense by not doing anything! Their 15 second delays are the primary reason I believe for the discouraging stat rapsuperstar provided a couple days ago...both of them rank in the bottom 10 players in the league in points per possession on Iso's! I agree that the coaching staff is trying to do everything they can to make Ant into a more team-oriented productive player rather than just an individual scorer, and I'm sure they are far more frustrated than I am. But I hold out some hope because Ant is still very young (as well as extraordinarily talented and athletic) and is still developing as a player...and meanwhile he is still scoring at a nice pace. I'm hoping the light bulb goes on soon and he learns what he needs to do to maximize his enormous potential. If so, I remain convinced this is a roster with championship potential. Meanwhile, lineups with Ant in them are kinda difficult to watch.

Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree on this topic. I do think Ant can still make improvements, but I'm not banking on that as the key to changing the trajectory of the team from a 2nd or 3rd tier playoff team to a legit contender again. I believe the personnel surrounding Ant has to change. The good news is that some of the ingredients are already on the team!

KAT is a perfect example. We are all very familiar with KAT's flaws - the stray voltage, the whining, the unwillingness to take more 3's despite being the "best shooting big man in history", the wilting under playoff pressure, etc., etc. I wished for years that there were things he would change. He did indeed become a better defensive Center as he put on more "old man" weight and strength, but most of the things I hoped would change didn't.

So what do the Knicks do? They provide him the PERFECT roster set-up for his strengths. Offensively, he's always been best when he plays Center. Now he's back to being a full-time Center. Defensively, they surrounded him and Brunson with switchable wing defenders in OG, Bridges, and Hart. Those guys are all dogs. Suddenly KAT is the toast of New York and having his best regular season ever in combined individual stats and winning.

I want the same for Ant, who like KAT, is also a flawed player. Get him a freakin' roster that plays to his strengths and compliments his weaknesses rather than him having to contort his game to fit what everyone else wants!

[Wolvesfan21]

Q, yes I do want Ant to change. And it's clear that Finchie does too based on his post-game comments about our spacing issue. I suspect he knows Ant will never be SGA, but the change he (and I) are looking for is not that dramatic. Ant often takes 10-15 seconds at the top of the key to make any decision about how the play is going to develop, and that delay allows the defense to adjust. It's practically impossible for Ant to get to the rim at that point. There is a lot of talent on this roster, and I'm convinced our offense would thrive if Ant (and yes, sometimes Ju) didn't spend the first half of the shot clock making the job easier on the defense by not doing anything! Their 15 second delays are the primary reason I believe for the discouraging stat rapsuperstar provided a couple days ago...both of them rank in the bottom 10 players in the league in points per possession on Iso's! I agree that the coaching staff is trying to do everything they can to make Ant into a more team-oriented productive player rather than just an individual scorer, and I'm sure they are far more frustrated than I am. But I hold out some hope because Ant is still very young (as well as extraordinarily talented and athletic) and is still developing as a player...and meanwhile he is still scoring at a nice pace. I'm hoping the light bulb goes on soon and he learns what he needs to do to maximize his enormous potential. If so, I remain convinced this is a roster with championship potential. Meanwhile, lineups with Ant in them are kinda difficult to watch.

What do you mean he will never be SGA? Because up and into their age 23 seasons I would argue Ant has been a much better player/career up to these points. SGA was a bit injured though and missed about half the games in age 22-23 seasons. But still. Factor in defense and it's not even close for me. SGA had a pretty bad age 23 season shooting eFg.495. Ant is shooting his career best at eFg .545 despite his two point numbers dropping.

Compare Ant in 3 years and he should easily surpass SGA when he's 29, Ant will be 26. I actually think it won't even be close then. I see Ant being MVP by then and elite two way best player in the league. But who knows for sure. He could hit a wall and stay where he's at. But I do think once the roster gets flushed and turned over more, things will only get easier for him. As well as his skill increasing.