Minnesota Sports Forum

Posted: **Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:53 pm**

lipoli390 wrote:
thedoper wrote:Draft picks should all be about talent. If Tatum falls he is that guy. Otherwise we take Monk or DSJ. Positional fit and intanglibles pale in comparison to talent in my mind when drafting a player. You sign hustle/glue guys. You draft the guy who has the most talent who can be a star. The great thing about this draft is there may be multiple players who could end up having a big impact.

I agree, Doper. You draft for talent. That means you take Tatum if he's available at #7. I also agree with Kahns that it's problematic to draft a guy whose only success in college was 3-point shooting. Kahns provided some good examples of those types of prospects who turned out to be NBA busts.

I like isolation scoring ability as a nice building block for NBA success. It usually indicates a combination of impressive ball-handling, awareness, tenacity and shooting skill. A 19-year old with only one year of college under his belt can often extend his shooting range and improve his passing in the NBA. Note that Tatum's college stats include decent steal and block numbers unlike a guy like Markkenan who averaged 0.4 blocks per game as a seven footer. I suspect that Tatum's college stats substantially understate his potential, expecially when you consider that he got a late start because of an early season injury. I'd still take Jonathan Isaac over Tatum, but I think Tatum is more likely than Isaac to fall to #7. Unfortunately, I don't think either one will be available at #7.

You laid out pretty much what I think also Lip including how he is unlikely to last till 7.

If you want some fun numbers look up the 3 point shooting of some of the top prospects over the final couple months of the season. Make sure you look at Tatum and Markkanen's numbers. :)

Edit:

Just to be clear the consensus is that Markkanen has legit potential and likely to be an elite 3 point shooter. I just think the idea that Tatum is just sorta dismissed as a 3 point threat is a bit silly and again I'm not even a huge fan of the guy.

Posted: **Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:59 pm**

Q12543 wrote:A few thoughts on Tatum:

- Being a good isolation scorer is not a bad thing. If you have multiple guys that can do that, it allows you to target the weakest defender on the court since most teams don't have multiple defensive stoppers.

- The key is whether he can do other stuff well besides iso scoring. My nightmare scenario is that he's the next Derrick Williams (shivers), who ended up not being able to do anything particularly well.....unless he plays the T-Wolves.

- His measurements are very solid for a SF and he has the size and length to play some PF in today's league too.

- Potential range of comparisons: Derrick Williams, Jeff Green, Rudy Gay, Tobias Harris, Carmelo Anthony, Paul George

Q good points here.

Maybe I'm splitting hairs but I think Tatum has a higher floor than Derrick Williams did I don't care what their final shooting numbers were in their last year of college. I wasn't convinced Williams was all that great that year and you convinced me he was probably a role player...and that didn't even turn out...yet. Lol Tatum looks like a more refined player as a freshman than Williams looked as a sophomore IMO. It also helps that tweeners are actually mix more valued now than back then. But I get where you are coming from.

Posted: **Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:18 pm**

It sounds like this Sixers trade up to get Fultz from the Celtics is a done deal.

In addition the the 3rd pick this year the Celtics get Lakers pick in 2018 if it's 2-5. If it isn't they get the Kings 2019 unprotected first round pick.

Dropping a couple spots also opens up a bit more cap room for this year so they can now offer a max FA without making any other moves.

The only question now is...who do they take at 3? Do they even make another trade?

Also I think getting Fultz for that package is likely a good deal for the Sixers even if they did give up a potentially valuable future pick. They only gave up 1 extra pick and they still have another likely valuable one left while getting a player in Fultz who makes a ton of sense for their roster.

Posted: **Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:26 pm**

It seems the Celtics will never run out of high draft picks. They've been a bit unlucky so far with who's been available at their draft slot, but they are going to get more chances to draft some really top end players. I'm sensing a rebirth of the old Celtics-Sixers rivalry of the 80's. You might even see the Bucks inch their way in and have the league screw them over again.

Posted: **Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:34 am**

I think the 76ers get away with highway robbery in the trade. They haven't had a PG since Holiday was traded and I just think Fultz will be a stud especially next to Embiid and Simmons. Sure the Celtics pick up more picks, but they have so many already. People seem to forget all the first round picks that have just been massive bombs. For every Smart or Brown there's been 1 if not 2 Fab Melo, RJ Hunter, James Young, Lucas Nogueira's. Hell, they drafted 8 players in total in last year's draft alone. 8!!!! That's more than half a team. I don't know how long IT can keep it up at his size and when that happens they're gonna be looking at a Sixers team with 3 stars wishing they had kept Fultz.

Posted: **Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:46 am**

khans2k5 wrote:
SameOldDrew wrote:
thedoper wrote:Draft picks should all be about talent. If Tatum falls he is that guy. Otherwise we take Monk or DSJ. Positional fit and intanglibles pale in comparison to talent in my mind when drafting a player. You sign hustle/glue guys. You draft the guy who has the most talent who can be a star. The great thing about this draft is there may be multiple players who could end up having a big impact.

I totally agree draft picks should all be about talent. But there are key talents other than iso scoring that every team needs. For my money, getting the best, most versatile defender, the best 3 point shooter, and the best shot intimidator are equally valuable to the best scorer. This is why I'd put Monk or possibly even Markkanen into the conversation for the 7 pick as the best 3 point shooters, that's why I'd consider trading down for Anunoby as the best, most versatile defender, and that's why I was kind of interested in Jeanne as a shot-blocker before the unfortunate diagnosis, and why Anigbogu and Zach Collins interest me a bit for the same reason. All three of those are crucial skills in the NBA, and they've become even more important in recent years, even as isolation and mid-range play has shrunk in importance.

Guys like Markkanen, Anunoby, Anigbogu, and Collins are definitely less likely to get voted to an All-Star game than Tatum (I do think Monk could potentially become an All Star), but I feel like the impact they could have could be as valuable as Tatum's, or even more valuable on a team like ours (with the exception of Makkanen though, who I think is going to get destroyed defensively, so he needs to end up on a great defensive team, which isn't us). Given our roster's makeup with LaVine, Wiggins and Towns already, I feel like we need versatile defense, 3 point shooting, and shot intimidation more than iso scoring, so I can see seriously considering getting the guy who can do one of those the best over the best scorer. I'm not saying draft for fit over talent. I'm saying defense, 3 point shooting, and shot-blocking are ALSO talents. And if somebody is as good at defense, as good at 3 point shooting, or as good at shot-blocking as Tatum is at iso scoring, then I'd consider them even.

It's kind of my hope, assuming Jackson is gone at 7 and Anunoby keeps dropping far enough on big boards, that we could trade down and get Anunoby plus a first rounder next year to make up for the loss of next year's pick!

In terms of drafting scorers and signing free agents to do the rest, I'm not sure it's that easy to sign guys who are very good in those three areas, especially these days. Likewise, scorers like Carmelo and Rudy Gay earned reputations over the years for not helping their teams despite their scoring, and the league is starting to recognize this. Today, very good scorers like Okafor and Kanter are almost definitely available because they don't help in other ways, and guys who used to be dismissed as role players are being recognized for the importance of their contributions.

Now that I've laid out the case for not automatically taking him if he's there at 7, watch Tatum become the next Paul Pierce or Paul George!

The problem with that argument is it doesn't always translate. Look at a guy like Stauskas or Jimmer. Elite shooters at the college level and it just didn't translate to the pros. Drafting a guy who is only "elite" at shooting like Markkanen is an extremely dangerous proposition if it just doesn't click out to the NBA 3 point line. Tatum can score and rebound. He's a very good rebounder for his size and he has the potential to be a good defender as well. Heck, Tatum grabbed more boards per game than Markkanen and Lauri has a big height advantage on him. He's not just an iso scorer. He's a good rebounder and dished out 2 assists a game as well. You say it's not a fit argument, but it just is when you consider Monk and Markkanen's shooting and OG's defense and whoever's shot blocking as equalizer's to a guy of Tatum's talent level because he's just a scorer. If those were true equalizer's those guys would be in the conversation in the top 5 like he is. Tatum does fit our team in the modern NBA after he adds some weight and plays small ball 4 for us. Meanwhile Lauri gets torched in that look, Monk may not even be on the court to end games and OG might be Aminu and can't give you almost any offense and makes you play 4 on 5 which becomes 3 on 5 with Ricky. To me that's focusing too much on fit trying to make them equalizer's to talent when talent usually wins out in this league. Tatum may not be a great fit now, but add a corner 3pt shot and play tough hard nosed defense under Thibs and he becomes a great fit with what we have and makes us a very difficult team to defend.

I'm saying if talent is equal, then yes, you should consider fit. And I'm suggesting we consider whether being the best player at something other than scoring can be considered equal talent to being the best scorer.

For years now, collective wisdom has said no, and lots of teams have chosen to take higher scorers while passing up versatile defenders like Kawhi and Draymond, shot-blockers like Gobert, 3 point shooters like Klay, and multi-skilled physical freaks like Giannis. There have been busts who were not primarily iso scorers coming out of college as well, of course, but there have also been busts who were prolific college scorers. The draft is much more about luck than people think; I just don't want to overlook a great player because I'm too focused on scoring.

But if it's worth considering skills other than scoring as equal to scoring, then I think it broadens the conversation and we should consider whether some of those guys, like Monk, Anunoby, and (*sigh* pre-diagnosis Jeanne) could be equal to Tatum because they are the best at what they do while also bringing some other strengths. I'm not saying take a role playing specialist (that's why I dismiss Markkanen, because we don't have the defenders to hide him on that end). I'm saying we shouldn't only consider scoring, especially iso midrange scoring.

I agree, Tatum is likely to improve his 3 point shooting--as I pointed out on the previous page, his great FT% is a good sign in that regard, and that's one of the best predictors of ability to shoot the NBA 3. I'm not trying to trash Tatum here, just to broaden the conversation about whether he'd be the best player for us to take.

Also, for what it's worth, while some people have OG low on their draft boards (like DX, which seems like the source of everything some people argue on this board at times), he's really high on others. Check out the guys at the Ringer, all of whom are really smart guys. Two of them have Anunoby ranked ahead of Tatum. So if your only point of reference is DX, sure, it seems crazy to project a guy pegged at 22 over a guy projected at 4 or 5. But it's better to consider multiple perspectives, and especially if we can trade way down and get Anunoby and pick up a future first in the process, that's a really good deal in my book.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com

Posted: **Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:53 am**

You bring up some good points Drew and I largely agree. When people talk about "best player available" or "star potential", it almost always seems to be related to that individual's offensive potential. Well, look where all that offensive potential has gotten us! We have a team that is incapable of stringing together stops.

I consider Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Ben Wallace, Dennis Rodman, and Shane Battier - just to name a few guys past and present - stars. Most of them were drafted in the 2nd round.

There is a lot of value to be had if a front office is able to sniff out defensive/do shit potential from the larger pool of unheralded players not considered lottery talent by the consensus draftnicks out there.

Posted: **Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:59 am**

Q12543 wrote:You bring up some good points Drew and I largely agree. When people talk about "best player available" or "star potential", it almost always seems to be related to that individual's offensive potential. Well, look where all that offensive potential has gotten us! We have a team that is incapable of stringing together stops.

I consider Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Ben Wallace, Dennis Rodman, and Shane Battier - just to name a few guys past and present - stars. Most of them were drafted in the 2nd round.

There is a lot of value to be had if a front office is able to sniff out defensive/do shit potential from the larger pool of unheralded players not considered lottery talent by the consensus draftnicks out there.

Good points Q. One of the more interesting guys that may be available in the 20 range is Semi Ojeleye. Talk about a man. This guy seems an ideal candidate to become a defensive stopper in the NBA at multiple spots. Not sure I trade down for him, but if you could grab a second pick.....

Posted: **Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:11 am**

Hicks123 wrote:
Q12543 wrote:You bring up some good points Drew and I largely agree. When people talk about "best player available" or "star potential", it almost always seems to be related to that individual's offensive potential. Well, look where all that offensive potential has gotten us! We have a team that is incapable of stringing together stops.

I consider Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Ben Wallace, Dennis Rodman, and Shane Battier - just to name a few guys past and present - stars. Most of them were drafted in the 2nd round.

There is a lot of value to be had if a front office is able to sniff out defensive/do shit potential from the larger pool of unheralded players not considered lottery talent by the consensus draftnicks out there.

Good points Q. One of the more interesting guys that may be available in the 20 range is Semi Ojeleye. Talk about a man. This guy seems an ideal candidate to become a defensive stopper in the NBA at multiple spots. Not sure I trade down for him, but if you could grab a second pick.....

Absolutely...plus he can shoot! Mmmm, big, strong, tough, and can shoot the 3. I can think of a team that could use a guy like that!

OG
Ojeleye
Bell
Thornwell

Those would be my trade down candidates depending on the deal and where we trade down to.

Posted: **Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:39 am**

Q12543 wrote:
Hicks123 wrote:
Q12543 wrote:You bring up some good points Drew and I largely agree. When people talk about "best player available" or "star potential", it almost always seems to be related to that individual's offensive potential. Well, look where all that offensive potential has gotten us! We have a team that is incapable of stringing together stops.

I consider Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Ben Wallace, Dennis Rodman, and Shane Battier - just to name a few guys past and present - stars. Most of them were drafted in the 2nd round.

There is a lot of value to be had if a front office is able to sniff out defensive/do shit potential from the larger pool of unheralded players not considered lottery talent by the consensus draftnicks out there.

Good points Q. One of the more interesting guys that may be available in the 20 range is Semi Ojeleye. Talk about a man. This guy seems an ideal candidate to become a defensive stopper in the NBA at multiple spots. Not sure I trade down for him, but if you could grab a second pick.....

Absolutely...plus he can shoot! Mmmm, big, strong, tough, and can shoot the 3. I can think of a team that could use a guy like that!

OG
Ojeleye
Bell
Thornwell

Those would be my trade down candidates depending on the deal and where we trade down to.

Battier was sdelected 6th overall for the reasons mentioned in these posts it wasn't a terrible selection when you look back at his career. There are plenty of draft picks that teams are looking for guys that are all around players. Sure a lot of the time teams are looking for that upside scorer. Why? They don't have it on their roster or only have one guy. there are plenty of examples of teams taking a role player over the high upside guy every year and sometimes that guy turns out to be pretty good. Taurean Price was picked 12 and there is no way he had the highest "upside" at that spot.

Would I take Tatum (or one of these other players that could be the best available) or trade down for 2 picks? Idk I honestly would be tempted depending on where they were and what players I thought would be available (tricky). Most of the draft experts think there is a drop off after the top 10 or so guys which means the rest of the draft is more risky. Getting 2 shots at getting a good or at least worthwhile player might be worth it especially when you could actually send both guys to the d-league.

Odeleye is a guy that's intruiged me as well.

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