Minnesota Sports Forum

alexftbl8181 wrote:Weird thst we'll have such a young team with such little cap space

How much cap space will we have? I know we have at least 5 vets tied up for 5-12M next year.

bleedspeed177 wrote:

alexftbl8181 wrote:Weird thst we'll have such a young team with such little cap space

How much cap space will we have? I know we have at least 5 vets tied up for 5-12M next year.

Depends on Thad (and I suppose Bud if he is healthy) but Shamsports seems to be the place to go for the best numbers and explanations of contracts right now that I've seen. Check it out.

1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.3 | Win%: 66 percent

Davis has already blossomed into the kind of player the Pelicans hoped he'd be when they won the 2013 draft lottery and, at 21, he can still get much better. Davis' offensive game exploded last season as he put up the usage rate of a high-scoring wing and the true shooting percentage of a solid, close-to-the-basket big man. Add it all up and Davis' 15.1 WARP ranked fifth in the league. The other players to hit that WARP before reaching age 22: Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal and Tracy McGrady.

While Davis claims the top projection by our new methodology, this system does hurt him a bit because his real plus-minus (RPM) values, while positive, suggest his impact doesn't quite boost his teammates as much as his production suggests it should. Don't worry, that part of his game will come next, along with a lot of MVP votes.


2. Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.2 | Win%: 69 percent

Love's 20.2 WARP ranked third in the league behind James and Kevin Durant in 2013-14. The new methodology used for ranking purposes generates WARP scores a bit lower at the top end of the scale, but even though it's RPM-based that doesn't mean Love is penalized by an inability to impact a team's bottom line. His plus-6.4 RPM was elite, and he was positive on both ends of the floor. There are a lot of reasons Minnesota never made the playoffs with Love, but he was in no way one of those reasons.


3. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 13.3 | Win%: 65 percent

In many respects, including both statistically and stylistically, Griffin has evolved little as a professional player. Which is mostly fine, as his 37.2 WARP over the past three seasons puts him ahead of 98.5 percent of all NBA players. Griffin's one weakness is his performance has generally dropped off in the playoffs. Not much, but a little. For L.A. to eventually break loose on a title run, Griffin needs to explode when he's needed most. When Chris Paul was out last season, Griffin raised his level of play, especially as a playmaker, so it's good to know he has more in reserve if it's needed.


4. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.3 | Win%: 61 percent

Millsap was just as good last season in Atlanta as he was the season prior in Utah, which is plenty good, but for whatever reason he seemed to garner more attention after moving to Atlanta. His offensive arsenal evolved in Mike Budenholzer's system, as Millsap turned many of his midrange shots into 3-point attempts, which he converted at right about the league average. His usage rate jumped by 3.4 percent, which is why his true shooting percentage was stagnant despite the improved shot selection. Hopefully Millsap can ratchet up the efficiency with Al Horford back in the lineup. Even if he doesn't, Millsap is an extremely valuable two-way player.


5. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.8 | Win%: 59 percent

Smith has enough of a track record that his 1.6 WARP disaster from last season doesn't wreck his forecast going forward. He's still just 28, and healthy, so there is little reason he can't return to his days as a double-digit WARP performer -- if used correctly. That means putting a stop to habits like finishing 17 percent of his possessions with 3-point attempts, even though he made just 26 percent of them. One thing saving Smith's outlook is his RPM profile; it actually was positive on the offensive end and was again well in the black on defense. Stan Van Gundy will figure this out.


6. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.7 | Win%: 58 percent

Aldridge has had better seasons, but few seem to realize it after his volume shot up in the 2013-14 regular season and he left us with some breathtaking performances in the playoffs. He has to be careful, as his 30 percent usage rate is high for a big man, and his .507 true shooting percentage doesn't justify it. Not that it's that cut and dry. His offensive RPM was plus-2.6, and with his offensive arsenal focused on all those baseline face-ups, his turnover rate was very low. As long as Aldridge is impacting the team in a positive way, who's to complain?


7. Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia 76ers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.8 | Win%: 58 percent

If the rumored trade does finally go down, you can see that in going from Love to Young, Minnesota would be losing about six wins of value from its starting power forward position. Young turned into a do-it-all performer toward the end of the Sixers' horrid 2013-14 season after Evan Turner was traded, showing heretofore unseen passing skills and using more possessions than ever. However, that's not his game on a good team.


8. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.6 | Win%: 57 percent

This ranking seems low for Ibaka, who has put up 9.6 or more WARP in three straight seasons, and is still at an age (24) when his numbers should be expected to improve. The disconnect is a product of RPM, where he was plus-0.4 on the offensive end -- the first positive season of his career -- while his defensive RPM slipped from plus-3.5 to plus-1.9. The hidden narrative is that it seems like the more Ibaka tries to do, the less he helps his team. That's a trend worth watching.


9. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.4 | Win%: 57 percent

With Faried eligible for an extension, there has been some debate about just how valuable his style of play actually is. There are legitimate reasons for the concern. He's turned into a high-volume offensive performer, and his percentages mostly justify that approach. He's good off the offensive glass and gets to the foul line, keeping his offensive RPM positive. However, his defensive profile is disappointing, and last season his RPM on that end sank to minus-1.6. The bottom line is that while Faried's style of play has evolved considerably over three seasons, his overall value has been stagnant.


10. Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.3 | Win%: 57 percent

Johnson is among the players benefiting the most by our reliance on RPM in the new ranking methodology. Johnson's 3.7 WARP last season was nothing special, but he was getting 29 minutes per game on a Raptors team enjoying its best season, so he must have been doing something right. Indeed, his plus-6.1 RPM was outstanding, and he split that up on both ends of the floor. In fact, he's been plus-3.2 or better on defense for three seasons running. He fits in well with Toronto's collection of underappreciated standouts.

Next five: Dirk Nowitzki, Ryan Anderson, Derrick Favors, Tim Duncan, Terrence Jones

Come on now, Nowitzki and Duncan are a combined 76 years old. The aging curves are what drags down their projections, though their level of play has never fallen off from elite. They're old, they're good and you shouldn't head to Vegas to wager that either one will indeed finish out of the top 10.

Also notable: Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, David West, Zach Randolph, David Lee, Kevin Garnett

Some big names are projected to succumb to the ravages of age, and all have already shown signs of slippage. Mirotic, on the other hand, is just getting started and projects better than any other rookie to make an immediate impact.

Well, I'll take Young over Smith, but Ibaka over Young. So in a way the ranking works out fine for me.

Camden wrote:@DanBarreiroKFAN 8s
What I expect by end of day Sat: Wolves lose Love, Shved, Mbah A Moute, a No. 1, gain Wiggins, Bennett, TYoung, cap except. In 3-team deal.

This is a good outcome for us. Il take bennet as both a backup and a backup plan to young over the miami pick which would likely be a non lotto pick anyway.

This balances the roster out a bit. |I would expect a jj trade as well as no way flip goes into the season with rubio, mo and jj as point guards. Bud or brew might be moved as well as there seems to be no minutes available to lavine and shabazz with wiggins,martin,bud and brew as the wings and I expect we will see rubio and mo in the game at the same time as well.

This outcome has been confirmed tonight. And I have to agree, it's about as good as we could expect to get given the Love trade was inevitable. Wolves fans should be proud of Flip and excited that the rebuild is in full force. And by the looks of it, it might not be a very long rebuild. We have a lot of pieces in place. Now we just need to get lucky and have one or two develop into stars.

The 4 mill trade exception the Wolves would get is interesting.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:This outcome has been confirmed tonight. And I have to agree, it's about as good as we could expect to get given the Love trade was inevitable. Wolves fans should be proud of Flip and excited that the rebuild is in full force. And by the looks of it, it might not be a very long rebuild. We have a lot of pieces in place. Now we just need to get lucky and have one or two develop into stars.

I agree Cool. Krawczynski and others have reported what Barriero said. We now know the deal and I'd say it's a great deal for the Wolves. Not great that we're losing Love, but a great return for a star who had never even carried his team to an 8th seed and who publicly proclaimed his intent to leave next season.

Love and LeBron will be a great tandem and, along with Kyrie and the other pieces they have, will probably win at least one or two championships in the next 5 years. But the Wolves will have the best young core of talent in franchise history. And we may become championship contenders if our years from now.

If this deal happens as reported today, then we should indeed be incredibly proud of Flip!!

lipoli390 wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:This outcome has been confirmed tonight. And I have to agree, it's about as good as we could expect to get given the Love trade was inevitable. Wolves fans should be proud of Flip and excited that the rebuild is in full force. And by the looks of it, it might not be a very long rebuild. We have a lot of pieces in place. Now we just need to get lucky and have one or two develop into stars.

I agree Cool. Krawczynski and others have reported what Barriero said. We now know the deal and I'd say it's a great deal for the Wolves. Not great that we're losing Love, but a great return for a star who had never even carried his team to an 8th seed and who publicly proclaimed his intent to leave next season.

Love and LeBron will be a great tandem and, along with Kyrie and the other pieces they have, will probably win at least one or two championships in the next 5 years. But the Wolves will have the best young core of talent in franchise history. And we may become championship contenders if our years from now.

If this deal happens as reported today, then we should indeed be incredibly proud of Flip!!

CoolBreeze44 wrote:This outcome has been confirmed tonight. And I have to agree, it's about as good as we could expect to get given the Love trade was inevitable. Wolves fans should be proud of Flip and excited that the rebuild is in full force. And by the looks of it, it might not be a very long rebuild. We have a lot of pieces in place. Now we just need to get lucky and have one or two develop into stars.

+1.

By the way, I'm fine keeping JJ this season. Adelman made very poor use of him last season. He's proven to be very effective in the past off the bench when used well. He has a lot of NBA experience and a championship ring -- which would be good to have around our young guys. He's still at the apex of his skills at age 29 and he's on a relatively cheap expiring contract.

We might still trade JJ in a later separate deal. But I'm fine keeping him and I suspect he'll be staying. I sense that Flip has something else in mind as a second significant move. It may involve Kevin Martin. It may involve the trade exception we get in the upcoming deal. Who knows. I don't think Saturday will mark the end of Flip's off-season maneuvering.