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Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 11:35 am
by FNG
AbeVigodaLive wrote:I think it's pretty clear what most NBA players think about Rudy Gobert's skills on offense. But if you needed any further proof...

https://twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/1640750774572691456?s=20

LOL


Ha, gotta admit my take was about the same...no, no, no, YES! It seems to me that 95% percent of his shots are at the rim, but basketball reference says it is only 78%. Doesn't match my eye test.

Rudy is effective out there simply because he is generally the biggest guy on the court, and he knows his limitations. It ain't pretty, but his 68 TS% tells me he is indeed effective.

Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 11:55 am
by Coolbreeze44
Can't teach 7'-4"

Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:29 pm
by Monster
WolvesFan21 wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:Abe's Next-Day DVR Review:

- "Just find a way" is the phrase of the day. This makes four straight games that the Timberwolves have just found a way to win. (#1) Overcome a 57-point Julius Randle game by shooting lights out with 71% TS? Yep. (#2) Overcome some dubious calls early in the 4th (Trae Young) and stage a late comeback? Yep. (#3) Force the Warriors into tougher and tougher shots in a slugfest of a game? Yep. (#4) Go into a hostile, energetic arena and will your way to a win? Yep.

This is one of the more impressive (and longest) win streaks in about two decades for the Timberwolves. It's been fun.

- Sabonis is so physical. But he's so good at it. He doesn't seem to do chicken wing things or extend his arm on contact. It's just a hard (but not too hard) shoulder into the chest that he plays off of. I remember watching him closely for the first time in college when he matched up with Jacob Poeltl in the NCAA Tournament. Sabonis destroyed him with his unique brand of relentless physicality. OKC did a disservice to the guy (and its team and fanbase) by trying to make him a jump shooter and three point guy as a rookie. Once he was allowed to cook in the paint... he's become a very good pro.

- The Wolves had 7 guys in double figures, with Reid and Nowell packing punch off the bench. Bench shot 14 - 29 fg) with only 2 TOs. Meanwhile, the Kings bench was pretty bad in this one, collectively shooting 8 - 23 fg with half the team's TOs. Rookie starter Keegan Murray had a poor night shooting 1 - 8 fg (1-6 3fg) even though he came into the game shooting 41% on threes.

- Edwards has looked rough the past couple of games. Is it the ankle? Still ill from whenever? Tired from the season? Seeing more clogged lanes with two bigs out there a lot more? Or just trying to fit in and ride this wave of unselfish ball movement? He's lacking the dynamic elements to his game right now, and even passing open three point looks. He's also shooting only 63% from the line over the past 10 games or so... which coincides with the Wolves slide from the stripe.

Meh. The Wolves are winning anyway! He'll be fine soon enough.

- Naz Reid is playing well down the stretch... in a contract year. How much do you pay for a guy who (1) is awful on defense (2) is a backup to guys who will be taking up about $100M of your cap (3) and will force the team to almost always play big?

The NBA is all about matchups. And the Wolves might have something with the two-big lineup. But is it an actual thing? And if so, how sustainable is it? By locking up Reid to $12M+ per season, the Wolves are tripling down on that style. And sometimes, it's nice to be able to change styles, pace and options.

- I don't think officiating rankings are public. But Jim Peterson made a comment about it being a big game but the NBA not acting like it was in how it scheduled officials. And we all know we've complained about whistles this season, especially lately. Is it because the Wolves are often deemed just a "meh" team for so long that we're simply not seeing the better officials more often?

- The Mike Conley vs. D. Russell can rage on for eternity. I was rough on Conley during that stretch when he shot 1 - 14 fg late in several close losses. Was it fair? Maybe? I think what we're seeing is that Mike Conley is NOT the guy when a team is lacking high-end talent around him. He can't take over games if the focus is on him.

BUT... he's been one heckuva complementary veteran presence when the Wolves have multiple scoring options on the court. He's hitting his threes and his patented runner is coming around. I just read a quote from him about rebounding and how he's not very good at it, but if that's what coach wants, he'll get in there.

This is where things get dicey and I don't want to derail the GDT. But, that's always been the anti-Russell crowd's take. Russell can do things other players cannot do. But he's seemingly not always WILLING to do things other players are.

- Keep winning.


Great post. The Wolves are a team now. We need contributions and effort from anyone who can give it each night.

TEAM is the key here. I am liking how they are playing as a unit.

Now on to the next. There is a chance we can get a top 6 seed now or better. Let's see if they can keep it going, which is the hardest part. Because teams are not going to take the Wolves lightly at all knowing they just won 4 in a row.


Great post Abe I'll add a couple things.

If Reid gets 12 million or more then I'm cool moving on. I don't think he will get that kind of money this offseason. It won't shock me but I don't think he is viewed THAT highly. I think he is more of a mid-level at most guy and for that or less yeah I would like to bring him back. How many 2-way players can you get for that kind of money? Signing Kyle Anderson was a hell of a move.

Which brings us to the next point. Part of why Conley has been more valuable the last chunk of games is he has seemingly been more aggressive taking shots especially from 3. One of the reasons why? He is playing off the ball at times because he is on the floor with Kyle Anderson who is actually a PG. at times Conley is playing a role not that dissimilar to what Russell was doing this season. Obviously Conley doesn't have the volume that Russell does but him taking less shots also allows other guys to get more shots. The bottom line is that the last chunk of games Conley has been playing well overall. It's helped the Wolves win. Russell when healthy has overall played well for the Lakers and I'm happy he is doing well.

Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:49 pm
by Duke13
Is Cam not participating in GDT's because he's upset about the Dlo trade?

Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:06 pm
by 60WinTim
CoolBreeze44 wrote:Can't teach 7'-4"


No, but you can buy it for four 1st rounders and a boatload of pocket change! ;-)

Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:28 pm
by TAFKASP
60WinTim wrote:
CoolBreeze44 wrote:Can't teach 7'-4"


No, but you can buy it for four 1st rounders and a boatload of pocket change! ;-)


Five first rounders and change.

Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:34 pm
by SameOldNudityDrew
FNG wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:I think it's pretty clear what most NBA players think about Rudy Gobert's skills on offense. But if you needed any further proof...

https://twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/1640750774572691456?s=20

LOL


Ha, gotta admit my take was about the same...no, no, no, YES! It seems to me that 95% percent of his shots are at the rim, but basketball reference says it is only 78%. Doesn't match my eye test.

Rudy is effective out there simply because he is generally the biggest guy on the court, and he knows his limitations. It ain't pretty, but his 68 TS% tells me he is indeed effective.


I was listening to the Dunc'd On podcast guys the other day, and they pointed out the average TS% of centers this year is something like 64%, while the average TS% of everybody else is like 57%.

A couple takeaways.

First, that does indicate Rudy is an efficient scorer, even compared to other centers, who are on the whole more efficient than most other positions.

Second, that does indicate that teams should probably all try to get more shots for their centers than they already do, at least within reason.

BUT, I do think that "within reason" is important to keep in mind. Few of these centers can create shots for themselves, and a decent number still in this day and age have limited range. You have to manufacture those shots as a team, and that can lead to turnovers, as we've seen this year.

A good lob to an open Rudy is the ideal shot. It's basically a guaranteed 2 points. But there have been problems getting that shot this year.

One has been guys missing the possibility of the lob when the pass is there. They're not used to looking for it or throwing it, so they just don't pull the trigger.

Another, related, issue has been when guys try to force that lob when Rudy's not open or the defense is ready because they telegraph the pass a bit. When Conley got to Utah, it took him a while to get used to throwing that pass to Rudy, and he's a distributing PG, so it's not necessarily easy to pull off and it is a skill guys can learn. I haven't checked the stats, but I bet SloMo has actually been more successful at that this year than even Conley since he arrived, which is a bit odd.

Finally, weirdly, it doesn't seem like we're running the kind of obvious plays to set up the lob to Rudy. Part of that is the lack of pick-n-roll in the offense, which we've discussed, and which still doesn't make sense to me. Whenever KAT and Ant are out, and Conley and Rudy are in, why not run the pick-n-roll with them? I just don't get it. But there have to be other ways to potentially get that lob open, right? I'm not a coach, but couldn't we try to set a double pick first on the ball handler's defender and then right afterward on Rudy's defender so the ball handler drives into midrange just as Rudy cuts to the rim and looks for the lob?

Beyond the lob pass, I do get sometimes throwing it to Rudy in the post if he gets a good seal, but other times it looks like we're just fishing for a foul because he really is a very stiff finisher. At times, that might make sense, but it has felt like we've gone to that more than we really should, especially when KAT and Ant are back. And other times, Rudy really needs to just recognize his limitations. He should not shoot that little push shot outside 4-6 feed or that fadeaway from anywhere. If he is cutting or rolling to the basket and we have a safe pass[/I], then we should definitely do it. He's actually been a surprisingly decent finisher when catching the ball while taking a couple steps toward the basket, but it always looks like he's going to really clank it off the backboard (which sometimes he does). But too often, it feels like guys try forcing him the ball when he's not really ready or open enough to catch it. He does just have terrible hands and our passers need to be smarter about when they give it to him and softer and craftier with how and where they give it to him. Nowell (I think it was) had a really nice bounce pass to him the other day that was perfect, actually.

So yes, overall, I do think Rudy is an efficient scorer, and there are ways that we can and probably should unlock his efficiency even more by doing a better job of manufacturing lobs, as well as good, safe passes to him rolling to the basket, and maybe post seals at times. But we have have to be more discerning about when and how we use him offensively and he needs to be more discerning about some of the shots he takes. We have made some steps, and I like how he's shown good judgment and thrown the ball out to shooters at times from the post. But we can definitely be better in this area.

Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:51 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
TS% is skewed to favor centers... especially rim-running centers like Rudy Gobert.

Other centers who primarily dunk or lay it up at the rim might even do it more efficiently than Gobert... but if we're using TS%... Gobert's rather pedestrian 65% FT is significantly better than most other rim runners which can help him.

It's a bit of a one-trick pony, so it's not a thing that can be scaled out so the guy becomes a 20+ ppg guy without there being a legit trade-off.

Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 4:04 pm
by FNG
Yes, TS% is definitely skewed more toward centers...it's pretty easy to make a 3 foot shot if you're 7 feet! But Rudy ranks high in this stat among centers...only Jokic at 70.4% is higher than Rudy among centers averaging more than 30 MPG. Embiid for instance is at 65.3, Lopez at 62.6, and Ayton at 61.6. All good numbers, but Rudy is just a little more efficient than almost all centers. And then you add in the impact he has on defense...

Re: You Know You Can Start a GT Without Me Right? (Wolves vs. Kings GDT)

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2023 4:36 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
FNG wrote:Yes, TS% is definitely skewed more toward centers...it's pretty easy to make a 3 foot shot if you're 7 feet! But Rudy ranks high in this stat among centers...only Jokic at 70.4% is higher than Rudy among centers averaging more than 30 MPG. Embiid for instance is at 65.3, Lopez at 62.6, and Ayton at 61.6. All good numbers, but Rudy is just a little more efficient than almost all centers. And then you add in the impact he has on defense...



Trying to use a skewed statistic to showcase Gobert's offensive skill favorably compared to Embiid is gonna be a fool's errand. This is a case of finding a favorable stat and creating a narrative out of it.

Gobert should not be compared to offensive fulcrums like Embiid or Jokic, three point shooters who can also play with their back-to-the-basket like Lopez or even mid-range guys like Ayton.

All of them shoot somewhere between 27% and 31% of their shots within 3 feet of the hoop. Gobert takes 78% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.

By the way... ALL of them shoot better than Gobert within 3 feet of the hoop.



[Note: Gobert should be compared to guys like Mitchell Robinson and Walker Kessler and that ilk on offense. Essentially, he's a lot closer to their skillsets offensively than the guys you mentioned.]