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Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 10:25 am
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
Oof. Here we go again.

Start and finish with your best players. D'Angelo Russell is one of them for this team. It's as simple as that.

Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 10:28 am
by kekgeek
Q-was-here wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:Abe's Late Late Night DVR Review (and Nap):

- I fell asleep after playing hoops, woke up, started watching... fell back asleep... woke up... fell back asleep... you get the point.

- The Timberwolves seem to be figuring things out. I really like that they didn't settle for Wednesday's "moral victory." Fuck moral victories. Win games. Even games when you're down double digits late on the back end of a back-to-back. Playoff teams win those games (sometimes).

- But... I noticed Naz Reid looked lousy. Yuck.

- The Timberwolves didn't play defense in the 1st half. But sounds like that turned around in the 4th quarter. WOW.

- And apparently, we saw Russell carry the team to victory (during one of my longer naps). Obviously, he has it in him. He's done it before. HOW MUCH IS IT WORTH... especially when it comes with its own unique sort of baggage. I feel like his situation is hanging over the team (or at least the fanbase) right now.

- Kyle Anderson sneakily has helped save the season. He's had one other run in his career where he was a more integral part of the offense. Eventually, he hit a bit of a wall, but the guy is one of the better plug-and-play guys in the Association right now. He can fill so many different roles. I just worry about how his game will be once the athleticism is gone. ahem.

- Toronto confuses me. They seem to have a legit starting 5, but they're only 20 - 26.

Anunoby (would bring back a ton in a trade)
Siakam (25/8/6) right now!
Barnes (prized 2nd year player, ROY)
Gary Trent
VanVleet

Now... the bench is BAD. The starters simply play too many minutes (Fred, OG and Pascal all play 36+ mpg). And there must be a fit issue going on, too. They have a bunch of long-limbed guys who can do multiple things surrounding a pint-sized PG who can't finish inside. Every time I think it will work... it doesn't quite get done. Case in point... yesterday.

- Please Mr. Timberwolves Players... don't let up vs. the woeful Houston Rockets. That would be so Wolvesian of you. Don't be like that. Be better. We deserve it.

Thanks guys!


I found myself thinking the same thing about Toronto....Seems like they should be better than they are, as they have a number of coveted assets. I think their problem is similar to ours: They rarely have a guy that is clearly the best player on the floor on any given night. Add a legit star to their team and they could make a lot more noise in the East.


Their bench stinks, they have the worst centers in the league, FVV is have his worst year of his career and Barnes has regressed with his shot in year 2 (People are gaurding him like Ben Simmons). Solid team with a ton of interesting assets just don't know where they go from here.

Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 10:34 am
by kekgeek
Camden wrote:Oof. Here we go again.

Start and finish with your best players. D'Angelo Russell is one of them for this team. It's as simple as that.


I am not even trolling. Do you think he is better than Slow Mo. I think Dlo should 100% be an option down the stretch. He is either 5th or 6th on the team in my opinion on value and importance. I don't even think that is a rip.

I think we would all agree that Ant/Mcdaniels/Gobert/Kat are closing games, 99% of the time. I am cool with closing with either Dlo or Slow Mo to end the game. Each have their unique skill set to help win games.

I actually both players can be and have proven they can be really freaking good. I just don't think it is that big of a slight that there could be games Slow Mo should close over Dlo.

Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 10:48 am
by Q-is-here
kekgeek1 wrote:
Camden wrote:Oof. Here we go again.

Start and finish with your best players. D'Angelo Russell is one of them for this team. It's as simple as that.


I am not even trolling. Do you think he is better than Slow Mo. I think Dlo should 100% be an option down the stretch. He is either 5th or 6th on the team in my opinion on value and importance. I don't even think that is a rip.

I think we would all agree that Ant/Mcdaniels/Gobert/Kat are closing games, 99% of the time. I am cool with closing with either Dlo or Slow Mo to end the game. Each have their unique skill set to help win games.

I actually both players can be and have proven they can be really freaking good. I just don't think it is that big of a slight that there could be games Slow Mo should close over Dlo.


Cam is going to realize eventually that he places a higher value on DLO than nearly every other actual NBA GM. We'll find out based on his next contract and role or what we get back in a trade (if we go that route). I think he could be a really good 6th man for someone and oftentimes 6th men do close out games. But if you are up 5 points with two minutes left.....mmmm, may be I don't want him in there. And to that point, guess who wasn't in the game on the last possession last night?

Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 11:21 am
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
- Kyle Anderson is connective tissue. He's a high-quality role player that looks and plays better than he actually is when he plays next to better players. He's been absolutely critical to this team with Karl-Anthony Towns out and the praise he receives is mostly-deserved. However, he's realistically the sixth-best player on the team. We're now shifting into similar territory this board was in when those here were wanting an expanded role for Jordan McLaughlin. This fan base has an obsession with role players.

- It shouldn't be a hot take to say that a team that rosters D'Angelo Russell should play him in clutch situations, or down the final stretch in fourth quarters. Russell is by far this team's best clutch performer and has consistently been among the game's elite late game performers over the last five years. This season, he's 10th in fourth quarter scoring among guards. He's second among guards in true shooting percentage in the frame (62.8%). He's ninth among all players in fourth quarter assists and seventh in three-pointers made. Play your best players when it counts most.

- What an odd and unjustifiable comment to make. I could just as easily say that "____ is going to realize eventually that he places a lower value on D-Lo than nearly every other actual NBA GM." Firstly, there's no way to know the truth so essentially you're just taking a dig at me for having an opposing view of the roster. Secondly, I have consistently maintained the view that Russell is a good-not-great player, which does come with flaws. However, we have reached a point where his very real strengths aren't being valued nearly enough or barely at all. That's evident in this very thread. Unbelievable. The timing you guys have is great too. Can't even just enjoy the win. You go right back to it.

Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 11:40 am
by Q-is-here
Camden wrote:- Kyle Anderson is connective tissue. He's a high-quality role player that looks and plays better than he actually is when he plays next to better players. He's been absolutely critical to this team with Karl-Anthony Towns out and the praise he receives is mostly-deserved. However, he's realistically the sixth-best player on the team. We're now shifting into similar territory this board was in when those here were wanting an expanded role for Jordan McLaughlin. This fan base has an obsession with role players.

- It shouldn't be a hot take to say that a team that rosters D'Angelo Russell should play him in clutch situations, or down the final stretch in fourth quarters. Russell is by far this team's best clutch performer and has consistently been among the game's elite late game performers over the last five years. This season, he's 10th in fourth quarter scoring among guards. He's second among guards in true shooting percentage in the frame (62.8%). He's ninth among all players in fourth quarter assists and seventh in three-pointers made. Play your best players when it counts most.

- What an odd and unjustifiable comment to make. I could just as easily say that "____ is going to realize eventually that he places a lower value on D-Lo than nearly every other actual NBA GM." Firstly, there's no way to know the truth so essentially you're just taking a dig at me for having an opposing view of the roster. Secondly, I have consistently maintained the view that Russell is a good-not-great player, which does come with flaws. However, we have reached a point where his very real strengths aren't being valued nearly enough or barely at all. That's evident in this very thread. Unbelievable. The timing you guys have is great too. Can't even just enjoy the win. You go right back to it.


Heh, figured I'd get your goat!

I'm totally open to being wrong here and I wish no ill-will toward DLO (or you for that matter). I'm just telling you that I think you value him more than the rest of the NBA front offices. We will find out how he is actually valued either by what we get back in a trade and/or whatever kind of contract he signs this offseason and what role he plays on his next team. That is all TBD...

Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:21 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
Q-was-here wrote:
Camden wrote:- Kyle Anderson is connective tissue. He's a high-quality role player that looks and plays better than he actually is when he plays next to better players. He's been absolutely critical to this team with Karl-Anthony Towns out and the praise he receives is mostly-deserved. However, he's realistically the sixth-best player on the team. We're now shifting into similar territory this board was in when those here were wanting an expanded role for Jordan McLaughlin. This fan base has an obsession with role players.

- It shouldn't be a hot take to say that a team that rosters D'Angelo Russell should play him in clutch situations, or down the final stretch in fourth quarters. Russell is by far this team's best clutch performer and has consistently been among the game's elite late game performers over the last five years. This season, he's 10th in fourth quarter scoring among guards. He's second among guards in true shooting percentage in the frame (62.8%). He's ninth among all players in fourth quarter assists and seventh in three-pointers made. Play your best players when it counts most.

- What an odd and unjustifiable comment to make. I could just as easily say that "____ is going to realize eventually that he places a lower value on D-Lo than nearly every other actual NBA GM." Firstly, there's no way to know the truth so essentially you're just taking a dig at me for having an opposing view of the roster. Secondly, I have consistently maintained the view that Russell is a good-not-great player, which does come with flaws. However, we have reached a point where his very real strengths aren't being valued nearly enough or barely at all. That's evident in this very thread. Unbelievable. The timing you guys have is great too. Can't even just enjoy the win. You go right back to it.


Heh, figured I'd get your goat!

I'm totally open to being wrong here and I wish no ill-will toward DLO (or you for that matter). I'm just telling you that I think you value him more than the rest of the NBA front offices. We will find out how he is actually valued either by what we get back in a trade and/or whatever kind of contract he signs this offseason and what role he plays on his next team. That is all TBD...



We'll find out soon enough what front offices think of D. Russell. But we do know how a few teams have felt about him already. And we know how former GMs and NBA talking heads feel about him. (We all have our own opinions on how legit some of those guys are.)

What we do know is how their careers have gone.

8 seasons for Russell: +8.9 VORP (high: 3.4... next highest is 1.4)
9 seasons for Anderson: +11.0 VORP (high +2.5... next highest is 2.4)

Win Shares per 48:
Russell - 0.060
Anderson - .122

So, while Russell has a higher ceiling and can take over games like last night much more frequently than Anderson can... there's been something missing in his game for the better part of 8 seasons that leaves him cold with fans, talking heads, stat geeks, possibly GMs and others.

And Anderson despite being a role player with a limited ceiling and limited in certain aspects of the game (scoring) has consistently proven to help teams win games through his effective play on the court.

___________

So, I can see why certain teams would prefer the lower-ceiling, utility knife role player over the higher scoring but often enigmatic Russell... ESPECIALLY if we're looking at them using expectations.

Russell makes $31M as we all know... and $109M in his career.
Anderson makes 9M... and $43M in his career.

Both guys have value... just how much value depends entirely on the team they're playing for. Personally, with a team with higher level scorers like Towns and Edwards, I have a preference.

Do you?

Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:42 pm
by thedoper
I agree that Dlo is a good to not great player. But Good to not great PGs mean you're in the bottom 3rd of players at your position. VanVleet, Lowry, Conley, Lonzo Ball when healthy, used to be Fox but he has clearly ascended. The big rub with DLo and his prospect moving forward is his current contract. We all see it, we just don't know what his self perceived value is. I suspect like with most people in all professions, Dlo doesn't think he deserves a pay cut. I could be wrong and maybe he is super realistic, but I think everyone here agrees Dlo is not a 30 million dollar player. This is where Dlo may be in for a rude awakening in the league. But yeah round and round we go until Dlo's future is settled. He played awesome last night, more of that will be good for everyone.

Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:49 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
By Abe's own wacky methodology, Brandon Clarke is hereby better than Darius Garland and should be valued appropriately. I will hear no counterarguments to suggest otherwise. The case is closed.

Hear me out... sometimes we have to know and understand basketball concepts to apply the data that we find. We also need to value both ends of the floor, understandably. For the most part, we do an excellent job of that here. When it comes to D'Angelo Russell... not so much. His offensive impact is often marginalized and his defensive mistakes are typically exaggerated leaving a distorted impression of his overall impact. Sorry to say, but suggesting that Kyle Anderson and/or Jordan McLaughlin are better than him and should play at more crucial times in the game is not a great take. It just comes across as more anti-Russell rhetoric.

With that said, enjoy your "I Hate D-Lo" club with LST (FNG? LST? FNG?) as your chairman. You guys should make T-shirts. I shouldn't have participated in this nonsense. See you all here for tomorrow's game thread so we can discuss if Austin Rivers is better than Russell too.

Re: The Fred VanVleet Audition - Raptors at Wolves GDT

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:43 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
Camden wrote:By Abe's own wacky methodology, Brandon Clarke is hereby better than Darius Garland and should be valued appropriately. I will hear no counterarguments to suggest otherwise. The case is closed.

Hear me out... sometimes we have to know and understand basketball concepts to apply the data that we find. We also need to value both ends of the floor, understandably. For the most part, we do an excellent job of that here. When it comes to D'Angelo Russell... not so much. His offensive impact is often marginalized and his defensive mistakes are typically exaggerated leaving a distorted impression of his overall impact. Sorry to say, but suggesting that Kyle Anderson and/or Jordan McLaughlin are better than him and should play at more crucial times in the game is not a great take. It just comes across as more anti-Russell rhetoric.

With that said, enjoy your "I Hate D-Lo" club with LST (FNG? LST? FNG?) as your chairman. You guys should make T-shirts. I shouldn't have participated in this nonsense. See you all here for tomorrow's game thread so we can discuss if Austin Rivers is better than Russell too.




Wacky methodology? Or, did you simply misread my post?

I didn't claim Russell was better than Kyle Anderson. I simply said I prefer Anderson on the Timberwolves if both Towns and Edwards are playing, in part because Anderson's versatility and playmaking is a better value at $9M than Russell's scoring and playmaking is at $31M.

As for Garland and Clarke... Garland has posted better VORP than Clarke in each of the past two seasons. (+2.5 vs. +2.0 and +1.4 right now vs. +0.80). And clearly, Garland is trending up, since it's only his 4th year in the league and has improved significantly since his poor rookie season.

He's also only making $8M vs. Clarke's paltry $4M right now. Next year, their VALUES change significantly, with Garland slated for $33M and Clarke at $12M.

Meanwhile, Russell and Anderson have been about even for VORP the past two seasons (Anderson +1.2 last year and +1.0 right now) and (Russell +1.4 last year and +0.9 right now)... all while one guy is making $20M+ more.