Wolves vs blazers GDT

[AbeVigodaLive]

Lots of angst and frustration for what was done this off-season, and I understand and agree with much of it, but the future isn't bleak. Either the current roster and coaching staff will figure it out or changes will be made, some of which could effectively turn the roster over yet again. It could be as soon as this off-season that Rudy Gobert or Karl-Anthony Towns are moved for a sizable package of assets and/or proven players that better fit the core now and moving forward. I like to call that a pivot, and Minnesota very much has that in play because both Gobert and Towns are proven elite players. Their value doesn't disintegrate because they perhaps can't win playing with each other -- and it's still too early to know that. Basically, Minnesota's options are still very good in the event this experiment fails.

It's also possible that Connelly made the trade for Gobert knowing that he would deal Towns down the line, but he wanted to hitch himself to Gobert first because, frankly, he may impact winning more. And why not see if him and Towns could make it work first before dealing one of the franchise's most-loyal and longest-tenured players.

A trade of Gobert is firmly out. He couldn't possibly regain the value. Towns - Not happening either. Trade the franchise for a big to "fit" your franchise big and then trade to fit your team around the 30 year old big?? Huh?

A trade of Rudy Gobert is probably not the direction this goes, agreed, but I don't think it's because they couldn't retain value. They would almost certainly acquire much better players than what they traded for him -- Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Patrick Beverley, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler -- with the understanding that they wouldn't come close to getting back four future first-round picks in addition to that. It might be two good players and two picks, for example. The overall value could end up being comparable because Gobert is still an elite player, but the deal would be structured very differently -- specifically, in terms of draft capital.

I think the second part of my above comment speaks to what you're getting at. I think it's entirely possible that Tim Connelly evaluated the roster and determined that Karl-Anthony Towns wasn't the anchor that was needed for this group moving forward so he acquired Gobert, who is now his guy in the present and future. Rather than immediately deal Towns to recoup the value spent in the Gobert trade he allowed this to play out and see if two elite bigs could function together -- right or wrong -- before any more deals were made.

In short, I think Towns being on the move if this experiment went bad had already been hypothesized prior to making the trade for Gobert. There's no way this front office with their collective experience and intellect didn't prepare a pivot or some sort of lever to pull if it just didn't work out.

I don't see any way that Gobert isn't a sunk cost. There's no way the Wolves recoup as much value back for him than what they paid for him... making it a very bad to disaster of a deal.

- EVERYBODY knows the Wolves overpaid. And it's been shown that the trade didn't shift the market for how much teams would be willing to give up. Instead, other teams might have gone with the "the Wolves screwed up the market, no way we're upping the ante on that one by giving up even more."

- Gobert will be older.

- Gobert will have failed (at least in perception) with his new team.

- I'm sure the FO has a pivot in place... but that doesn't mean they're still getting less back than they initially thought for that pivot. And it doesn't mean that the Wolves weren't be in a worse spot after that pivot than they were prior to the Gobert Swindle. Basically, there's no justification for giving up THAT much for this little of a reward (thus far).

- Rudy Gobert is still Rudy Gobert. If Minnesota decided to move on from him, they're going to receive quality offers. There are still teams like Toronto, Chicago, and likely others that would have high interest in acquiring him. However, nobody's offering four future first-round picks for him. That deal just isn't materializing, but that doesn't mean the value can't or won't be comparable. It just means the incoming players would need to be of higher-quality than what they sent out originally, which is probable given what the Wolves traded away, as well as recouping a future first-round pick or more. I think those offers still exist. It's reasonable if you don't.

- I'll add that Gobert probably isn't the big that would be dealt. Tim Connelly has attached his career and his reputation to him at this point. He will likely want to see that through and will be more likely to move various parts around him in order to make it work. I also think there's a good chance that Gobert just impacts winning more than Karl-Anthony Towns, and they know that, which would lead to Towns -- not Gobert -- being the one on his way out.

Players, picks, french fries or burgers... the Wolves will not be able to recoup what they sent out for Gobert in any comparable way unless they luck out similar to what happened with Marc Gasol way back in the day for Memphis.

And sure... Towns is more likely to go. But I still don't see how this makes things any less of a giant misstep if it comes to that.

Towns isn't going to return what the Wolves gave up to land Gobert. (see my first point about Gobert above) The Wolves were in an excellent position to build on last year's success. And while some of that success was built on mirrors and cadavers, it positioned the team to make a big move.

The Wolves chose very poorly if it means they're spinning their wheels for at least a year and then trying something new with fewer assets than they initially started with. At that point, it's just spacing out fewer pieces of slightly more weathered deck furniture in a different layout and hoping nobody notices.

[Q-is-here]

Let me remind folks that while Rudy is old compared to the rest of the Wolves roster, he is by no means at the tail end of his career given his position and style of play.

Look no further than Brook Lopez, who turns 35 before the end of the regular season, and is having one of the better seasons of his career playing 31 MPG and starting for the Bucks.

Or how about Al Horford, who at age 36 has been the starting Center for the best team in the NBA and at age 35 competed in the Finals last year?

In my mind, Rudy may actually be the hardest asset to replicate on this roster - even harder than KAT and Ant (for now). You can say things "didn't work" in Utah, but they sure as hell worked better there than anything the Wolves have ever accomplished over a sustained timeframe!

[thedoper]

Ive said this before but maybe the Rudy deal was Connelly's plan to get off KAT? If it worked great, if it didnt he has a easy way off of KAT who would still command a haul in a trade.

[Q-is-here]

Ive said this before but maybe the Rudy deal was Connelly's plan to get off KAT? If it worked great, if it didnt he has a easy way off of KAT who would still command a haul in a trade.

I don't think that was the primary reason for trading for Rudy....I think they truly believed these two would synergize and help propel the team to a top 6 seed.

I have a feeling we aren't going to see some big blow-up where KAT gets traded, DLO moves on, we get a new coach, etc. I think one or two things will happen to shake things up, but not multiple big moves between now and next season.

[thedoper]

Ive said this before but maybe the Rudy deal was Connelly's plan to get off KAT? If it worked great, if it didnt he has a easy way off of KAT who would still command a haul in a trade.

I don't think that was the primary reason for trading for Rudy....I think they truly believed these two would synergize and help propel the team to a top 6 seed.

I have a feeling we aren't going to see some big blow-up where KAT gets traded, DLO moves on, we get a new coach, etc. I think one or two things will happen to shake things up, but not multiple big moves between now and next season.

It can't happen this season, but I could see KAT gone by next year's deadline if we are still stagnant.

[Q-is-here]

Ive said this before but maybe the Rudy deal was Connelly's plan to get off KAT? If it worked great, if it didnt he has a easy way off of KAT who would still command a haul in a trade.

I don't think that was the primary reason for trading for Rudy....I think they truly believed these two would synergize and help propel the team to a top 6 seed.

I have a feeling we aren't going to see some big blow-up where KAT gets traded, DLO moves on, we get a new coach, etc. I think one or two things will happen to shake things up, but not multiple big moves between now and next season.

It can't happen this season, but I could see KAT gone by next year's deadline if we are still stagnant.

yeah, that might be, I just don't see it happening this offseason. I think they make other changes before pulling that trigger, as much as we speculate about it. I think we are on the same page that KAT would be more likely moved versus Gobert.

The reality is that Gobert is a LOT easier to build around than KAT. He actually plays the conventional role of NBA center that anchors a defense and rim-rolls on offense.

KAT, while talented, is really hard to build around. He can't anchor a defense, yet he also has a hard time as an elite offensive protagonist because he doesn't initiate offense/handle the ball enough. He's in this awkward in between space of less-than-ideal offensive alpha dog and defensive liability.

[thedoper]

Ive said this before but maybe the Rudy deal was Connelly's plan to get off KAT? If it worked great, if it didnt he has a easy way off of KAT who would still command a haul in a trade.

I don't think that was the primary reason for trading for Rudy....I think they truly believed these two would synergize and help propel the team to a top 6 seed.

I have a feeling we aren't going to see some big blow-up where KAT gets traded, DLO moves on, we get a new coach, etc. I think one or two things will happen to shake things up, but not multiple big moves between now and next season.

It can't happen this season, but I could see KAT gone by next year's deadline if we are still stagnant.

yeah, that might be, I just don't see it happening this offseason. I think they make other changes before pulling that trigger, as much as we speculate about it. I think we are on the same page that KAT would be more likely moved versus Gobert.

The reality is that Gobert is a LOT easier to build around than KAT. He actually plays the conventional role of NBA center that anchors a defense and rim-rolls on offense.

KAT, while talented, is really hard to build around. He can't anchor a defense, yet he also has a hard time as an elite offensive protagonist because he doesn't initiate offense/handle the ball enough. He's in this awkward in between space of less-than-ideal offensive alpha dog and defensive liability.

Well this is where I go back to the Gobert deal maybe being part of a long term strategy. KAT has shown the difficulties of building a team around him for many years. After lots of head scratching good basketball minds came to the conclusion that maybe we need someone better than him at his position so he could be freed up to solely worry about offense. But KAT needs very specific touches to get his shots off too. Playing off another big has hurt KAT's offense so far. He may come back and go on a tear, but the hardest part of this season to me so far has been seeing KAT's play when he was healthy. All of this makes the deal feel like a last ditch effort to make something work for KAT where he isn't a liability, at the same time there is a nice exit strategy to get significant assets for KAT.

[Q-is-here]

Ive said this before but maybe the Rudy deal was Connelly's plan to get off KAT? If it worked great, if it didnt he has a easy way off of KAT who would still command a haul in a trade.

I don't think that was the primary reason for trading for Rudy....I think they truly believed these two would synergize and help propel the team to a top 6 seed.

I have a feeling we aren't going to see some big blow-up where KAT gets traded, DLO moves on, we get a new coach, etc. I think one or two things will happen to shake things up, but not multiple big moves between now and next season.

It can't happen this season, but I could see KAT gone by next year's deadline if we are still stagnant.

yeah, that might be, I just don't see it happening this offseason. I think they make other changes before pulling that trigger, as much as we speculate about it. I think we are on the same page that KAT would be more likely moved versus Gobert.

The reality is that Gobert is a LOT easier to build around than KAT. He actually plays the conventional role of NBA center that anchors a defense and rim-rolls on offense.

KAT, while talented, is really hard to build around. He can't anchor a defense, yet he also has a hard time as an elite offensive protagonist because he doesn't initiate offense/handle the ball enough. He's in this awkward in between space of less-than-ideal offensive alpha dog and defensive liability.

Well this is where I go back to the Gobert deal maybe being part of a long term strategy. KAT has shown the difficulties of building a team around him for many years. After lots of head scratching good basketball minds came to the conclusion that maybe we need someone better than him at his position so he could be freed up to solely worry about offense. But KAT needs very specific touches to get his shots off too. Playing off another big has hurt KAT's offense so far. He may come back and go on a tear, but the hardest part of this season to me so far has been seeing KAT's play when he was healthy. All of this makes the deal feel like a last ditch effort to make something work for KAT where he isn't a liability, at the same time there is a nice exit strategy to get significant assets for KAT.

Very fair analysis Doper.

The great thing about Rudy is that he actually enables us to pivot toward a modern day trend of 1 legit big that is elite on defense and 4 wings/guards on the floor with our "power forward" being basically another big wing. But I don't think the front office will be ready to ditch the KAT/Rudy experiment this offseason.

[TheFuture]

Let me remind folks that while Rudy is old compared to the rest of the Wolves roster, he is by no means at the tail end of his career given his position and style of play.

Look no further than Brook Lopez, who turns 35 before the end of the regular season, and is having one of the better seasons of his career playing 31 MPG and starting for the Bucks.

Or how about Al Horford, who at age 36 has been the starting Center for the best team in the NBA and at age 35 competed in the Finals last year?

In my mind, Rudy may actually be the hardest asset to replicate on this roster - even harder than KAT and Ant (for now). You can say things "didn't work" in Utah, but they sure as hell worked better there than anything the Wolves have ever accomplished over a sustained timeframe!

Brook Lopez and Al Horford have hands, post moves, the ability to shoot, and do not force a team to be dictated around them. Also do not cost $40 mil a year.

If you want to move off of KAT, then move off of him and DLo and build around ANT before you empty the coffers for Gobert. Now the idea is to trade KAT to attempt to regain the value lost in the Gobert trade? To build around what, Ant, Gobert, and Jaden? With them due contracts soon, that just means handcuffed by cap again. Gobert is nearly a decade older than Ant and Jaden. Do you look to move Gobert for a loss then? How dumb.

When I said Utah already tried the "modern defensive big with 4 out" I meant it. Conley, Mitchell, Ingles, Bogan, Rudy. That wasn't good enough to go anywhere. 2 smart perimeter defenders there. 4 capable shooters. 1 star creator at guard.

[Carlos Danger]

- I'm not sure how the handful of games this season without Karl-Anthony Towns correlates to last year's roster and its perceived ceiling in any capacity because the entire identity/roster significantly changed after the trade for Rudy Gobert was made. Those are two very different teams as we're learning with every game. We also don't know what big(s) Minnesota may have signed or what trades may have been made during the off-season in an alternate reality.

- The Kyle Anderson signing actually came before the Gobert trade using the mid-level exception and the open roster spot they already had available. They always had that to work with. It was just a matter of if they'd be able to use all of the exception or not. To be fair, Josh Minott would probably be on a two-way deal right now in that scenario. But yeah, I think they still end up with Anderson -- or some other valuable free agent addition.

In either case, this is just board chatter. I wouldn't have made the trade for Gobert, but I also still think that it'll work out just fine for Minnesota, one way or the other. They'll either win plenty of games with Gobert, or they'll end up trading him or Karl-Anthony Towns for a haul of players/picks that fit Tim Connelly's visionThey'll either win plenty of games with Gobert, or they'll end up trading him or Karl-Anthony Towns for a haul of players/picks that fit Tim Connelly's vision.

I've seen the bolded portion written on here many times. I'm sure part of it is to make sure people understand we have an asset worth something to recoup the value of the Gobert trade. But I'm not convinced we can recoup anything close to what we gave up. If we flop, we are giving up unprotected lotto picks. In the meantime, Rudy just keeps getting older and I'm not convinced a ton of teams would get into a bidding war for him because of the same reasons many questioned the trade here (fit).

From what I can see, if this year's team doesn't work out, we are rebooting again next year with less draft picks/capital - no matter how you spin it. That's because the picks we are going to give up are most likely going to be better (higher lotto) than anything we get back from any future trades. and that really sucks to think about.

Lots of angst and frustration for what was done this off-season, and I understand and agree with much of it, but the future isn't bleak. Either the current roster and coaching staff will figure it out or changes will be made, some of which could effectively turn the roster over yet again. It could be as soon as this off-season that Rudy Gobert or Karl-Anthony Towns are moved for a sizable package of assets and/or proven players that better fit the core now and moving forward. I like to call that a pivot, and Minnesota very much has that in play because both Gobert and Towns are proven elite players. Their value doesn't disintegrate because they perhaps can't win playing with each other -- and it's still too early to know that. Basically, Minnesota's options are still very good in the event this experiment fails.

It's also possible that Connelly made the trade for Gobert knowing that he would deal Towns down the line, but he wanted to hitch himself to Gobert first because, frankly, he may impact winning more. And why not see if him and Towns could make it work first before dealing one of the franchise's most-loyal and longest-tenured players.

A trade of Gobert is firmly out. He couldn't possibly regain the value. Towns - Not happening either. Trade the franchise for a big to "fit" your franchise big and then trade to fit your team around the 30 year old big?? Huh?

A trade of Rudy Gobert is probably not the direction this goes, agreed, but I don't think it's because they couldn't retain value. They would almost certainly acquire much better players than what they traded for him -- Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Patrick Beverley, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler -- with the understanding that they wouldn't come close to getting back four future first-round picks in addition to that. It might be two good players and two picks, for example. The overall value could end up being comparable because Gobert is still an elite player, but the deal would be structured very differently -- specifically, in terms of draft capital.

I think the second part of my above comment speaks to what you're getting at. I think it's entirely possible that Tim Connelly evaluated the roster and determined that Karl-Anthony Towns wasn't the anchor that was needed for this group moving forward so he acquired Gobert, who is now his guy in the present and future. Rather than immediately deal Towns to recoup the value spent in the Gobert trade he allowed this to play out and see if two elite bigs could function together -- right or wrong -- before any more deals were made.

In short, I think Towns being on the move if this experiment went bad had already been hypothesized prior to making the trade for Gobert. There's no way this front office with their collective experience and intellect didn't prepare a pivot or some sort of lever to pull if it just didn't work out.

I don't see any way that Gobert isn't a sunk cost. There's no way the Wolves recoup as much value back for him than what they paid for him... making it a very bad to disaster of a deal.

- EVERYBODY knows the Wolves overpaid. And it's been shown that the trade didn't shift the market for how much teams would be willing to give up. Instead, other teams might have gone with the "the Wolves screwed up the market, no way we're upping the ante on that one by giving up even more."

- Gobert will be older.

- Gobert will have failed (at least in perception) with his new team.

- I'm sure the FO has a pivot in place... but that doesn't mean they're getting close to what they initially thought for that pivot. And it doesn't mean that the Wolves won't be in a worse spot after that pivot than they were prior to the Gobert Swindle. Basically, there's no justification for giving up THAT much for this little of a reward (thus far).

In addition to what you outline above, I would think finding a trade partner for Gobert would be difficult. Teams seem to have gone away from the traditional center. I'm not sure a ton of teams would want to try and fit him into their scheme like we have done. Gobert is still a very good player. But he isn't really just a plug and play guy. As we have seen so far, he changes things (some for the good and some for the bad).

I do agree that if we fail this year, it's probably Towns that will be dealt since he will have most value and be easiest to move. Also, in my experience, the big shots never really want to admit they were wrong. So, I think Rudy is here for as long as Connelly.