Trade deadline thread

[AbeVigodaLive]

Cam, I can speak for Warriors fans unlike you. I am a Warriors fan as well as a Wolves fan. Warriors fans love the trade. Bay Area media also think the Warriors made out very well.

Obviously, they have every reason to look at it that way now.

But the #4 pick is different than the #13 pick. How much of the excitement is from knowing they're almost definitely getting a higher pick than initially projected?

I agree that the opinion in the Bay Area has migrated a little since last year. It was largely favorable when the deal was announced, but not wildly so. But if you research Warriors' fans and media's thoughts this winter on the internet, they are now ecstatic about the deal. I think the increase in their enthusiasm is due to two factors: 1) Wiggins, while still having some of the same warts, is performing much better than they expected. He has improved his 3-point shooting, and his defensive metrics have soared...some media talk about potential All-Defensive potential, and we never thought seriously about that. 2) As the buzz about the quality of the 2021 draft increase, even beyond the top 3, that first round pick (plus their own) has to have them drooling.

As I read different analyses this morning about yesterday's lack of activity by the Wolves, one positive is coming more into focus. It seems that the player that might have gotten the most offers was Jaden McDaniels. Many of us here are cautiously optimistic about what this skinny 20-year-old can become, so good on Rosas for not letting him go. It appears that the league is seeing what we're seeing.

We have to remember the timeline which Thibs didn't. I always said and knew LaVine was going to be better than Wiggins, that trade pissed me off.

Speaking of timelines... GRRR...

It's important to remember LaVine's timeline at the time. He'd just torn up his knee. And he was facing an extension. In his first season in Chicago (2018)... he only played 24 games. And he sucked. He would not have helped the Wolves make the playoffs that season. And the Wolves would be wondering how much to pay the guy with huge flaws who was coming off an injury and his worst season. Would the Wolves give him $20M and hope the 14 year playoff drought would end with him as a key guy?

I dunno. The Bulls paid him by matching the Kings surprising offer sheet. Many thought it was an overpay at the time. They matched it in part because LaVine was a big piece of the Butler deal that was panned at the time and looking great for the Wolves.

So let's say the Wolves traded Wiggins instead of LaVine. Obviously, LaVine is the better player now. But it's very likely that instead of 13 years without a playoff berth... the Wolves would be going on 17 years without a playoff berth.

It simply wasn't as clearcut as some make it out to be.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

So let's say the Wolves traded Wiggins instead of LaVine. Obviously, LaVine is the better player now. But it's very likely that instead of 13 years without a playoff berth... the Wolves would be going on 17 years without a playoff berth.

It simply wasn't as clearcut as some make it out to be.

How do you figure that, Abe? They would have traded Andrew Wiggins for Jimmy Butler who was the single most important reason Minnesota ended their playoff drought. All things likely would have remained the same in terms of supporting cast -- ie. trading Ricky Rubio, signing Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, etc. Minnesota definitely still makes the playoffs... unless you believe Wiggins was a significant part of that team winning games, which would surprise me very much.

An additional possibility is that, to your point, Wiggins may have had more trade value than Zach LaVine because he was healthy, which could have altered the trade enough to where Minnesota kept their seventh overall pick that turned out to be Lauri Markkanen. They would have been much better in the short and long-term -- not worse.

[AbeVigodaLive]

So let's say the Wolves traded Wiggins instead of LaVine. Obviously, LaVine is the better player now. But it's very likely that instead of 13 years without a playoff berth... the Wolves would be going on 17 years without a playoff berth.

It simply wasn't as clearcut as some make it out to be.

How do you figure that, Abe? They would have traded Andrew Wiggins for Jimmy Butler who was the single most important reason Minnesota ended their playoff drought. All things likely would have remained the same in terms of supporting cast -- ie. trading Ricky Rubio, signing Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, etc. Minnesota definitely still makes the playoffs... unless you believe Wiggins was a significant part of that team winning games, which would surprise me very much.

An additional possibility is that, to your point, Wiggins may have had more trade value than Zach LaVine because he was healthy, which could have altered the trade enough to where Minnesota kept their seventh overall pick that turned out to be Lauri Markkanen. They would have been much better in the short and long-term -- not worse.

They won in a play-in game. Barely. In OT.

As "meh" as Wiggins was that season... he played 82 games. Again... LaVine only played in 24 games... and struggled in those games shooting 38%.

Further, LaVine would have come back in the middle of a Wolves playoff push without Butler. He would have had a lot of pressure on him to perform.

Maybe the Wolves would have planned ahead and had a backup option in place. Maybe they would have been able to keep the #7 pick and that guy would have been better than LaVine or Wiggins. Maybe they'd have taken Markannen and moved him to SF and he'd have done better than Wiggins? Or maybe we'd have seen even more of Derrick Rose or Jamal Crawford? That's all conjecture.

But it's not a stretch that 58 more games of Wiggins over a very bad LaVine that season helped the Wolves win more THAT season.

And considering the Wolves haven't even been remotely close to the playoffs since 2018... finishing 12 and then 16 games out of the playoff spot... I think that's a pretty safe bet to assume the streak would be intact. Would they be better off today with LaVine > Wiggins or LaVine > Russell (and a 1st). Of course. But that's all in hindsight. At the time, it wasn't as easy as choosing between today's Wiggins and today's LaVine as some make it out to be.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Meh. What you're saying is true if you believe Andrew Wiggins was a positive and necessary contributor that season. Again, that would be odd especially if you look into his numbers that year. For those of us that think he was a neutral or even negative on the court, your line of thinking just isn't agreeable.

That Wolves team probably makes the playoffs that year with Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns regardless of if Zach LaVine OR Wiggins were on the roster or not.

[FNG]

Cam and Abe have an interesting Wig/Zach discussion going. I wade into those waters with trepidation, because it seems to me that this board largely evaluates a player's value 80% offense/20% defense...and I don't think that's how the typical NBA GM values players. And as I dig into Wig's and Zach's comparative on/off stats (which measure both the player's offensive and defensive impact), I recognize that I am at significant risk of drawing a "beating a dead horse" GIF from Abe because of my belief that whether your team does better depending on if you are on or off the court has to have some meaning...at least with a large sample size, that is. So be it...here we go. (And for those who choose to ignore the validity of on/off numbers, DRPM tells the same story...Zach is, and always has been, a train wreck on defense. There's no way to get around that.)

Abe says above that "Obviously LaVine is the better player now". If he added "offensive" before the "better", I would be 100% in agreement...he's become an elite offensive player. But Zach's defense continues to hurt whatever team he is on, and as a result his on/off numbers have been positive only ONCE in his 7-year career...in 2018-9, his second year with the Bulls. To his credit, his offense has become so good that he is no longer the on/off disaster he was his first two years with the Wolves, but even with his offensive explosion this year, the Bulls are still 2 points per 100 possessions WORSE when he is on the court. Wig on the other hand was a positive player his entire career with the Wolves, and has been comparable to Zach since both were traded despite his clear offensive inferiority to Zach.

At the time of the Butler trade, Thibs had to evaluate who he wanted to keep between Zach and Wig, and with Thibs always being a defensively-oriented coach, I wasn't surprised at his willingness to let Zach go. Thibs was capable of reading stats, so he knew Wig was an incredible 13.1, 16.9, and 7.6 points per 100 possessions than Zach in the three seasons they played together...that's not insignificant in the least. And the trend continued after the trade, as Wig was still 8.6 points better than Zach in 2017-8, which I'm confident didn't go unnoticed by Thibs as others second-guessed his trade. Since then the respective numbers have gotten closer as Wig has plateaued on offense and Zach's offensive game has skyrocketed. But Zach's sieve-like defense still leave him as a negative player overall even in his first All-Star year.

Zach is more entertaining fan-pleasing player to be sure, but the offsetting gaps between Zach and Wig on defense and offense keep their impact on the court relatively equal today. Just like Cam isn't expecting to convince the DLO-trade naysayers that it was a good trade, I don't expect to convince anyone that Wig was a far superior overall player at the time Thibs pulled the trigger on the deal. But to me the numbers are indisputable.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Meh. What you're saying is true if you believe Andrew Wiggins was a positive and necessary contributor that season. Again, that would be odd especially if you look into his numbers that year. For those of us that think he was a neutral or even negative on the court, your line of thinking just isn't agreeable.

That Wolves team probably makes the playoffs that year with Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns regardless of if Zach LaVine OR Wiggins were on the roster or not.

The only thing we know for certain is that Wiggins >>> LaVine in 2018.

He was available. LaVine was not for more than 2/3 of the season. And the Wolves would have to grab somebody else outside the organization... because every other available SG or SF on the roster also had negative VORP that season (Crawford, Rose, Muhammad, Brooks, Georges-Hunt).

[Wolvesfan21]

Cam, I can speak for Warriors fans unlike you. I am a Warriors fan as well as a Wolves fan. Warriors fans love the trade. Bay Area media also think the Warriors made out very well.

Obviously, they have every reason to look at it that way now.

But the #4 pick is different than the #13 pick. How much of the excitement is from knowing they're almost definitely getting a higher pick than initially projected?

I agree that the opinion in the Bay Area has migrated a little since last year. It was largely favorable when the deal was announced, but not wildly so. But if you research Warriors' fans and media's thoughts this winter on the internet, they are now ecstatic about the deal. I think the increase in their enthusiasm is due to two factors: 1) Wiggins, while still having some of the same warts, is performing much better than they expected. He has improved his 3-point shooting, and his defensive metrics have soared...some media talk about potential All-Defensive potential, and we never thought seriously about that. 2) As the buzz about the quality of the 2021 draft increase, even beyond the top 3, that first round pick (plus their own) has to have them drooling.

As I read different analyses this morning about yesterday's lack of activity by the Wolves, one positive is coming more into focus. It seems that the player that might have gotten the most offers was Jaden McDaniels. Many of us here are cautiously optimistic about what this skinny 20-year-old can become, so good on Rosas for not letting him go. It appears that the league is seeing what we're seeing.

We have to remember the timeline which Thibs didn't. I always said and knew LaVine was going to be better than Wiggins, that trade pissed me off.

Speaking of timelines... GRRR...

It's important to remember LaVine's timeline at the time. He'd just torn up his knee. And he was facing an extension. In his first season in Chicago (2018)... he only played 24 games. And he sucked. He would not have helped the Wolves make the playoffs that season. And the Wolves would be wondering how much to pay the guy with huge flaws who was coming off an injury and his worst season. Would the Wolves give him $20M and hope the 14 year playoff drought would end with him as a key guy?

I dunno. The Bulls paid him by matching the Kings surprising offer sheet. Many thought it was an overpay at the time. They matched it in part because LaVine was a big piece of the Butler deal that was panned at the time and looking great for the Wolves.

So let's say the Wolves traded Wiggins instead of LaVine. Obviously, LaVine is the better player now. But it's very likely that instead of 13 years without a playoff berth... the Wolves would be going on 17 years without a playoff berth.

It simply wasn't as clearcut as some make it out to be.

Right the Wolves would have stunk then had a chance to draft Doncic (had they not traded for Jimmy at all).

[AbeVigodaLive]

Cam, I can speak for Warriors fans unlike you. I am a Warriors fan as well as a Wolves fan. Warriors fans love the trade. Bay Area media also think the Warriors made out very well.

Obviously, they have every reason to look at it that way now.

But the #4 pick is different than the #13 pick. How much of the excitement is from knowing they're almost definitely getting a higher pick than initially projected?

I agree that the opinion in the Bay Area has migrated a little since last year. It was largely favorable when the deal was announced, but not wildly so. But if you research Warriors' fans and media's thoughts this winter on the internet, they are now ecstatic about the deal. I think the increase in their enthusiasm is due to two factors: 1) Wiggins, while still having some of the same warts, is performing much better than they expected. He has improved his 3-point shooting, and his defensive metrics have soared...some media talk about potential All-Defensive potential, and we never thought seriously about that. 2) As the buzz about the quality of the 2021 draft increase, even beyond the top 3, that first round pick (plus their own) has to have them drooling.

As I read different analyses this morning about yesterday's lack of activity by the Wolves, one positive is coming more into focus. It seems that the player that might have gotten the most offers was Jaden McDaniels. Many of us here are cautiously optimistic about what this skinny 20-year-old can become, so good on Rosas for not letting him go. It appears that the league is seeing what we're seeing.

We have to remember the timeline which Thibs didn't. I always said and knew LaVine was going to be better than Wiggins, that trade pissed me off.

Speaking of timelines... GRRR...

It's important to remember LaVine's timeline at the time. He'd just torn up his knee. And he was facing an extension. In his first season in Chicago (2018)... he only played 24 games. And he sucked. He would not have helped the Wolves make the playoffs that season. And the Wolves would be wondering how much to pay the guy with huge flaws who was coming off an injury and his worst season. Would the Wolves give him $20M and hope the 14 year playoff drought would end with him as a key guy?

I dunno. The Bulls paid him by matching the Kings surprising offer sheet. Many thought it was an overpay at the time. They matched it in part because LaVine was a big piece of the Butler deal that was panned at the time and looking great for the Wolves.

So let's say the Wolves traded Wiggins instead of LaVine. Obviously, LaVine is the better player now. But it's very likely that instead of 13 years without a playoff berth... the Wolves would be going on 17 years without a playoff berth.

It simply wasn't as clearcut as some make it out to be.

Right the Wolves would have stunk then had a chance to draft Doncic.

Doncic is nearly 4 years younger than those guys.

So he wouldn't have fit their timeline.

[Wolvesfan21]

Cam, I can speak for Warriors fans unlike you. I am a Warriors fan as well as a Wolves fan. Warriors fans love the trade. Bay Area media also think the Warriors made out very well.

Obviously, they have every reason to look at it that way now.

But the #4 pick is different than the #13 pick. How much of the excitement is from knowing they're almost definitely getting a higher pick than initially projected?

I agree that the opinion in the Bay Area has migrated a little since last year. It was largely favorable when the deal was announced, but not wildly so. But if you research Warriors' fans and media's thoughts this winter on the internet, they are now ecstatic about the deal. I think the increase in their enthusiasm is due to two factors: 1) Wiggins, while still having some of the same warts, is performing much better than they expected. He has improved his 3-point shooting, and his defensive metrics have soared...some media talk about potential All-Defensive potential, and we never thought seriously about that. 2) As the buzz about the quality of the 2021 draft increase, even beyond the top 3, that first round pick (plus their own) has to have them drooling.

As I read different analyses this morning about yesterday's lack of activity by the Wolves, one positive is coming more into focus. It seems that the player that might have gotten the most offers was Jaden McDaniels. Many of us here are cautiously optimistic about what this skinny 20-year-old can become, so good on Rosas for not letting him go. It appears that the league is seeing what we're seeing.

We have to remember the timeline which Thibs didn't. I always said and knew LaVine was going to be better than Wiggins, that trade pissed me off.

Speaking of timelines... GRRR...

It's important to remember LaVine's timeline at the time. He'd just torn up his knee. And he was facing an extension. In his first season in Chicago (2018)... he only played 24 games. And he sucked. He would not have helped the Wolves make the playoffs that season. And the Wolves would be wondering how much to pay the guy with huge flaws who was coming off an injury and his worst season. Would the Wolves give him $20M and hope the 14 year playoff drought would end with him as a key guy?

I dunno. The Bulls paid him by matching the Kings surprising offer sheet. Many thought it was an overpay at the time. They matched it in part because LaVine was a big piece of the Butler deal that was panned at the time and looking great for the Wolves.

So let's say the Wolves traded Wiggins instead of LaVine. Obviously, LaVine is the better player now. But it's very likely that instead of 13 years without a playoff berth... the Wolves would be going on 17 years without a playoff berth.

It simply wasn't as clearcut as some make it out to be.

Right the Wolves would have stunk then had a chance to draft Doncic.

Doncic is nearly 4 years younger than those guys.

So he wouldn't have fit their timeline.

:d

[Monster]

I can't believe we let Kris Dunn go in that trade...

Just imagine if the Wolves draft someone that didn't get hurt and ended not ending up being an NBA player (Patton) with the Bulls Pick. Many on this board were big fans of OG Ananoby. LST's guy was Jarrett Allen. One of those guys would have even helped during the playoff run and obviously would have helped beyond that. The idea that Wiggins signing his deal was THE thing that sunk this franchise is silly to me there are a number of ways this franchise could have recovered from that and that pick is one example.

Meanwhile remember all the posts about how amazing Jordon Bell was and there were posts about how the Wolves should have gotten that pick back in the Butler deal so we could draft him? At this point Bell is a fringe NBA guy. Dillon Brooks picked a few spots later looks to have been the superior Oregon player. FWIW I liked him too. I also liked Monte Morris and Thomas Bryant. Of course I also like Thornwell and Jawan Evans...