Minnesota Sports Forum

Q12543 wrote:Here is the latest update:

60WinTim - 51
TheSP - 50
crazysauce, Lipoli - 46
lead01, cpg29 - 45
thedoper - 44
kekgeek, Phenom - 43
rapsuperstar, Camden - 42
KiwiMatt - 41
worldK - 40
Mikkeman - 39
Monsterpile - 38
Bleed, Cool - 37
Abe, TheFuture - 36
Jester, FNG - 35
Q - 34
PorkChop - 32
WolvesFan - 29
mrhockey - 28

The range has widened a bit!

My prediction was left out. Perhaps it was made in another thread.. It was either 33 or 34 wins. Either way, I'll go 33 now.

Minnesota Timberwolves First 10 Games:

10/20: vs. Houston Rockets
10/23: vs. New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson: Doubtful)
10/25: vs. New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson: Doubtful)
10/27: at Milwaukee Bucks
10/30: vs. Denver Nuggets (Jamal Murray: Out)
11/01: vs. Orlando Magic (Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz: Questionable)
11/03: vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard: Out)
11/05: vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard: Out)
11/08: at Memphis Grizzlies (Dillon Brooks: Doubtful)
11/10: at Golden State Warriors (Klay Thompson: Out)

There's a decent chance the Wolves can go 7-3 or even 8-2 in their first 10, which would be a fantastic start to the season. Does anyone believe momentum is a real factor in team sports? That kind of start could be a big deal for this organization.

Camden0916 wrote:Minnesota Timberwolves First 10 Games:

10/20: vs. Houston Rockets
10/23: vs. New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson: Doubtful)
10/25: vs. New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson: Doubtful)
10/27: at Milwaukee Bucks
10/30: vs. Denver Nuggets (Jamal Murray: Out)
11/01: vs. Orlando Magic (Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz: Questionable)
11/03: vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard: Out)
11/05: vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard: Out)
11/08: at Memphis Grizzlies (Dillon Brooks: Doubtful)
11/10: at Golden State Warriors (Klay Thompson: Out)

There's a decent chance the Wolves can go 7-3 or even 8-2 in their first 10, which would be a fantastic start to the season. Does anyone believe momentum is a real factor in team sports? That kind of start could be a big deal for this organization.

Yeah we need to see an out of the ordinary winning streak this year. I know there are statistical arguments against it, but I absolutely believe in momentum in sports. Mindset, confidence all play huge factors in success in sports imo, which is why I absolutely love Ant.

Camden wrote:Minnesota Timberwolves First 10 Games:

10/20: vs. Houston Rockets
10/23: vs. New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson: Doubtful)
10/25: vs. New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson: Doubtful)
10/27: at Milwaukee Bucks
10/30: vs. Denver Nuggets (Jamal Murray: Out)
11/01: vs. Orlando Magic (Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz: Questionable)
11/03: vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard: Out)
11/05: vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard: Out)
11/08: at Memphis Grizzlies (Dillon Brooks: Doubtful)
11/10: at Golden State Warriors (Klay Thompson: Out)

There's a decent chance the Wolves can go 7-3 or even 8-2 in their first 10, which would be a fantastic start to the season. Does anyone believe momentum is a real factor in team sports? That kind of start could be a big deal for this organization.

Yes, momentum can be a huge factor, especially for a young team like ours. Believing they can win is almost a prerequisite to actually winning. And I agree that we have a soft schedule to start the season, especially with some key injuries on our opponents.

I'm not quite sold on this team though, so I'm not seeing 7-3. Maybe 5-5 at best, which compared to the last few years, would feel really good. Like last year, I think we will start the season 2-0 and there will be a lot of optimism on this board. But I don't know that this team is good enough to beat a Pelicans team, even without Zion, twice in a row. And then we get the Bucks. I'm hoping for good health and 5-5, but if I had to put money on it, I think we will be 4-6...still an improvement over last year.

FNG wrote:

Camden wrote:Minnesota Timberwolves First 10 Games:

10/20: vs. Houston Rockets
10/23: vs. New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson: Doubtful)
10/25: vs. New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson: Doubtful)
10/27: at Milwaukee Bucks
10/30: vs. Denver Nuggets (Jamal Murray: Out)
11/01: vs. Orlando Magic (Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz: Questionable)
11/03: vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard: Out)
11/05: vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard: Out)
11/08: at Memphis Grizzlies (Dillon Brooks: Doubtful)
11/10: at Golden State Warriors (Klay Thompson: Out)

There's a decent chance the Wolves can go 7-3 or even 8-2 in their first 10, which would be a fantastic start to the season. Does anyone believe momentum is a real factor in team sports? That kind of start could be a big deal for this organization.

Yes, momentum can be a huge factor, especially for a young team like ours. Believing they can win is almost a prerequisite to actually winning. And I agree that we have a soft schedule to start the season, especially with some key injuries on our opponents.

I'm not quite sold on this team though, so I'm not seeing 7-3. Maybe 5-5 at best, which compared to the last few years, would feel really good. Like last year, I think we will start the season 2-0 and there will be a lot of optimism on this board. But I don't know that this team is good enough to beat a Pelicans team, even without Zion, twice in a row. And then we get the Bucks. I'm hoping for good health and 5-5, but if I had to put money on it, I think we will be 4-6...still an improvement over last year.

If you think the Wolves are going to go 4-6 during this stretch I would go lower in you win projection total from 35 because the Wolves will be on a 32 to 33 win pace if they went 4-6 in the stretch. Also you just don't think the Wolves are going to be any good if you think they are going to go 4-6 here what is totally fine. The Wolves will be playing 7 of their first 10 games at home. Get to play only 1 elite team in this grouping in the Bucks. 5 of the 10 games will be against non-playoff teams from last year. Then 4 of those games against a playoff team, the Clippers are missing their best player and the Nuggets their 2nd best player and the Grizzlies will probably be missing a significant starter in Brooks (I know his advance stats are bad) and the Grizzlies are arguably best player from last year Valuncunis is not back on the team. Also the Wolves are going to get lucky and get to play the Pelicans without Zion on their roster.

Completely fine if you think the Wolves are going to go 5-5 at best and 4-6 more then likely, I would just say you don't believe that the Wolves are a 35 win team. You think think they are a mid 20 win team. This is going to be probably the softest part of the wolves schedule, with majority home games, teams that they are playing going to be missing significant pieces and the Wolves are healthy. Just saying if you have them at a 40% win clip on this stretch you think this team is a mid 20 win team at best.

Kek, I do think my win projection is probably optimistic, but the Thread Czar Q won't let us change our picks- a card laid is a card played!

Yeah, I agree that this will be the softest part of our schedule, and if we're going to threaten for a playoff spot, we need to go at least 7-3 cuz it gets a lot tougher after the first 10. The problem is we only had one game in the pre-season where our starters were matched up against the opponents' starters, and the Nuggets' starters (even without Jamal Murray as you point out) completely demolished our starters. Our starters looked great against the mostly reserve rotations the Pelicans and the Clippers put out there, but not in the one true test against the Nugs. That's why my pessimism level is a little high right now. I hope you and Cam are right and we are able to start the season 8-2, but I'm quite skeptical based on what I've seen. We're too small, and we're not hitting our threes. Those two factors may lead to a long season if they don't change.

FNG, I'm not sure if you realize this, but the Wolves don't play the Nuggets 82 times this year. Crazy, I know. Minnesota could very well lose all four matchups against Denver, though I wouldn't actually count on that, and they could still manage to win the XX amount of games that some of us have projected with reasonable health of the roster.

I guess my point is that it sounds like you're placing significant value in how the Wolves starters played against the Nuggets starters (in one game, mind you) while ignoring/discounting the positive aspects of the preseason to express your pessimism. That just doesn't add up to me.

FNG wrote:Kek, I do think my win projection is probably optimistic, but the Thread Czar Q won't let us change our picks- a card laid is a card played!

Yeah, I agree that this will be the softest part of our schedule, and if we're going to threaten for a playoff spot, we need to go at least 7-3 cuz it gets a lot tougher after the first 10. The problem is we only had one game in the pre-season where our starters were matched up against the opponents' starters, and the Nuggets' starters (even without Jamal Murray as you point out) completely demolished our starters. Our starters looked great against the mostly reserve rotations the Pelicans and the Clippers put out there, but not in the one true test against the Nugs. That's why my pessimism level is a little high right now. I hope you and Cam are right and we are able to start the season 8-2, but I'm quite skeptical based on what I've seen. We're too small, and we're not hitting our threes. Those two factors may lead to a long season if they don't change.

I'm in no way saying you are wrong. We both made predictions and hopefully I'm right but who knows. I just made the post because I saw your 1st 10 game response and if you think the Wolves are a 4-6 team after that stretch (what they might be) then you don't think the Wolves will be a 30 win team. (Once again that might be the case)

Camden wrote:FNG, I'm not sure if you realize this, but the Wolves don't play the Nuggets 82 times this year. Crazy, I know. Minnesota could very well lose all four matchups against Denver, though I wouldn't actually count on that, and they could still manage to win the XX amount of games that some of us have projected with reasonable health of the roster.

I guess my point is that it sounds like you're placing significant value in how the Wolves starters played against the Nuggets starters (in one game, mind you) while ignoring/discounting the positive aspects of the preseason to express your pessimism. That just doesn't add up to me.

Wait, are you sure about that? Let me check the schedule!

My only point is I didn't learn enough about this team in the preseason to make me think they will win any more than 10-15 more games than last year. I sense that we are a very enthusiastic and cohesive team, and that PatBev seems to have brought some necessary toughness. I like the enthusiasm DLo showed both on and off the court is the first game. I know that we seem quite small with only 2 real bigs on the roster, and I'm concerned about rebounding if we don't find a way to add another big. I know we only made 30% of our threes in the four games, and while I know this will get much better, I don't sense that we are going to be a very good 3-point shooting team. Here's what else I learned from the 4 preseason games:

Pelicans and Clippers: Our rotation was good enough to beat teams resting their best players.

Nuggets: Our starters were not competitive with their starters, but our bench looked superior to theirs.

Nets: This is the tough one to analyze for me. We were very competitive on the road against a team playing its best players, even though we were missing DLo. Some may conclude that DLo makes us better, and we can stay with a team like Brooklyn. But my concern is that PatBev starting in place of DLo improves our defense so much that we actually had a more effective roster last night. I thought our defense looked quite good against a talented team...will it still look good when DLo is in for PatBev? I don't know.

So a lot of uncertainty that didn't become clearer for me in the preseason. And based on my research of this forums' win projections the past 5 seasons, we tend to be quite optimistic...6-12 wins too optimistic per year if I recall. I'm a fan so I understand hope always springs eternal...I'm generally too optimistic about my home teams before the season starts too. But it seems to me that we're doing it again, and that by the end of the season, we will again win 6-12 games fewer than our mean projection. It's human nature, not just this board. Based on what I've seen, 34 wins looks like a pretty good estimate.

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