***OFFICIAL 2018-19 WINS PREDICTION THREAD***

[FNG]

Lip, aside from Monster's decent point about the addition of Rubio (instead of the shit show they had at PG prior to his arrival) and Monte Williams, I agree that the Suns story is the ray of hope we can cling to if we're looking for any chance of sniffing the playoffs this year. I think doubling your win total is quite an unusual situation though, and unlikely to happen again soon. I'll keep my hopes up, but absent a Simmons deal, my win projection will be close to the Vegas total. of 33.5 Haven't the past 6 years taught us that Vegas is much better at forecasting the Wolves' fortunes than we rubes are!

Here's why I'm struggling with those who won't give up Edwards for Simmons (and again...I would MUCH rather keep Ant and give up Dlo and Beasley if Morey would take them). Vegas has Philly winning 51.5 games this year with an expected starting lineup of Simmons, Harris, Embiid, Green and Curry. If the take here is that swapping Edwards for Simmons doesn't improve us, then Vegas would still have a 33.5 win total projected for the Wolves if their starting lineup were Simmons, KAT, Dlo, Beasley and Jaden.

So is our conclusion that Simmons' supporting cast in Philly is 18 wins better than KAT, Dlo, Beasley and Jaden...really?????? If that's true, then we need to blow this team up, because any group of four that is 18 wins worse than Embiid, Harris, Green and Curry is not ready to compete in the NBA.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

FNG, It's hard to argue with the history here. You are absolutely right that this board (in the aggregate) overshoots the actual wins year in and year out. I think most of the problem lies in viewing our roster in a vacuum without regard to what other teams have done to improve their roster. There is also an assumption that every young guy will improve when in fact that is decidedly NOT the case. Sometimes they even go backwards, but its hard to predict who will improve, who will go backwards, and who just stagnates (which is probably the most likely outcome for most players). But it is a dangerous assumption that youth = inevitable year over year improvement.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

In the case of Minnesota's young talent, are those of us really expecting improvement or just more of the same? I've said this time and time again, but Anthony Edwards was a different player in the second half of last year. If he's that same guy for 82 games, Minnesota's going to be good. The same applies for Jaden McDaniels. If they're actually improved players from last year, then that's even better. Regression is still a possibility, but most of us, I think, are just expecting those two to be who they were last year in the second half without even factoring in what they've gotten better at.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

In the case of Minnesota's young talent, are those of us really expecting improvement or just more of the same? I've said this time and time again, but Anthony Edwards was a different player in the second half of last year. If he's that same guy for 82 games, Minnesota's going to be good. The same applies for Jaden McDaniels. If they're actually improved players from last year, then that's even better. Regression is still a possibility, but most of us, I think, are just expecting those two to be who they were last year in the second half without even factoring in what they've gotten better at.

Right, so that gets us to about 40-42 wins or so without major injury issues. But you take KAT out of the mix for 20+ games or DLO or Ant and suddenly the Vegas prediction looks fairly reasonable. Do you think all our main guys are going to miss less than 10-15 games? I don't. I bet at least two of our key guys miss more than 20 games. Our bench/backups aren't good enough to pick up that slack.

[KG4Ever]

I didn't like the Rubio trade, but I do like the Beverley trade and McDaniels looked good in Summer League. That said, I think Ben Simmons has a huge influence on the over or under from my perspective. While I might not even like a Simmons trade in the long run if we give up too much, in the short term, there is pretty much no conceivable trade that makes the Wolves worse (barring a major injury to Simmons). I'd go slight under if Wolves don't get Simmons and easy over if they do.

Where is last year's thread? Last year I thought I was a pessimist, but I still was one game off with my overly optimistic 24 win prediction. Betting the over with the Wolves is a perilous endeavor.

[Lipoli390]

Memphis finished 4 games over .500 last season and Golden State finished 6 games over .500 without Klay Thompson.

I don't consider the Grizzlies' rotation from last season of Ja Morant, Grayson Allen, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson, Valanciunas, Brandon Clarke, Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and De'Anthony Melton to be better than the Wolves' likely rotation going into next season of KAT, DLO, Beasley, Edwards, McDaniels, Beverley, Naz Reid, Vanderbilt and T. Prince. I'm factoring in the way Edwards and McDaniels played the second half of last season and the way DLO and KAT played down the stretch when they were both healthy and on the floor together.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Memphis finished 4 games over .500 last season and Golden State finished 6 games over .500 without Klay Thompson.

I don't consider the Grizzlies' rotation from last season of Ja Morant, Grayson Allen, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson, Valanciunas, Brandon Clarke, Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and De'Anthony Melton to be better than the Wolves' likely rotation going into next season of KAT, DLO, Beasley, Edwards, McDaniels, Beverley, Naz Reid, Vanderbilt and T. Prince. I'm factoring in the way Edwards and McDaniels played the second half of last season and the way DLO and KAT played down the stretch when they were both healthy and on the floor together.

Well, I'm not FNG's spokesperson, but I might as well give it a shot. Here's why those rotations were better than the Wolves: DE-FENSE!!! Golden State and Memphis were both excellent defensive teams. Meanwhile, we are relying on DLO, Kat, Beasley, and Ant to basically outshoot and score everyone night in and night out while Jaden and Vando will be the only two guys trying to stop the other team.

We continue to ignore the fact that even during our stretch run of play, Finch oversaw the 3rd worst defense in the NBA. They were bad before he became head coach and they were bad after. I see no reason that changes unless we make a major change with the roster.

[Lipoli390]

Lip, aside from Monster's decent point about the addition of Rubio (instead of the shit show they had at PG prior to his arrival) and Monte Williams, I agree that the Suns story is the ray of hope we can cling to if we're looking for any chance of sniffing the playoffs this year. I think doubling your win total is quite an unusual situation though, and unlikely to happen again soon. I'll keep my hopes up, but absent a Simmons deal, my win projection will be close to the Vegas total. of 33.5 Haven't the past 6 years taught us that Vegas is much better at forecasting the Wolves' fortunes than we rubes are!

Here's why I'm struggling with those who won't give up Edwards for Simmons (and again...I would MUCH rather keep Ant and give up Dlo and Beasley if Morey would take them). Vegas has Philly winning 51.5 games this year with an expected starting lineup of Simmons, Harris, Embiid, Green and Curry. If the take here is that swapping Edwards for Simmons doesn't improve us, then Vegas would still have a 33.5 win total projected for the Wolves if their starting lineup were Simmons, KAT, Dlo, Beasley and Jaden.

So is our conclusion that Simmons' supporting cast in Philly is 18 wins better than KAT, Dlo, Beasley and Jaden...really?????? If that's true, then we need to blow this team up, because any group of four that is 18 wins worse than Embiid, Harris, Green and Curry is not ready to compete in the NBA.

The Warriors went from finishing 20 games under .500 in the 2011-12 season to finishing 7 games over .500 the following season. The differences? Curry went from playing in 40% of the team's games in 2011-12 to playing all but 4 the next season. Thompson went from being a rookie to a 2nd year player. Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes came in as rookies. And the Warriors added Bogut and Bazemore while losing Monta Ellis. I expect DLO to play more than the 58% of games he played last season. I think KAT will play more than the 70% he played last season and he won't have a bad wrist and family tragedy hanging over his head. I expect Beasley will play more than the 51% of games he played last season. I expect Edwards to be at least the player he was in the second half of last third of the season, not the player he was in the first two-thirds of a rookie season without a meaningful training camp or access to the coaching and training facilities he's had since. I expect Patrick Beverley to add a lot of defense, toughness, veteran leadership and 3-point shooting. Prince will add 3-point shooting. And we'll have an NBA-caliber head coach from the beginning of the season rather than a someone who I guarantee will never be an NBA head coach. All those things add up to a plus .500 record in my view. I'm predicting 6 games over at 44-38. Maybe it will be 42-40. But I expect no less.

Swap out DLO and draft picks for Simmons and the win total goes up. Swap out Beasley, Prince and picks takes the win total up even more. And yes, swapping out Ant for Simmons might raise the win total next season. But I'm taking the long view and I'm not willing to consider giving up a guy who has the talent to ultimately be better than Simmons on a rookie-scale contract for Simmons. Based on my long view, I'm highly reluctant to include McDaniels in a package for Simmons and there's also a limit to how many picks and how lightly protected I'd be willing to include. I'd trade either DLO or Beasley, but not both, because I think we lose too much scoring by giving up both for Simmons. Those are my baselines. I don't equate Simmons with future or past hall-famers like Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden, or even Jason Kidd. But certainly Kidd comes closer to Simmons than most others. Note that I wouldn't trade Edwards for Jason Kidd either.

[FNG]

In the case of Minnesota's young talent, are those of us really expecting improvement or just more of the same? I've said this time and time again, but Anthony Edwards was a different player in the second half of last year. If he's that same guy for 82 games, Minnesota's going to be good. The same applies for Jaden McDaniels. If they're actually improved players from last year, then that's even better. Regression is still a possibility, but most of us, I think, are just expecting those two to be who they were last year in the second half without even factoring in what they've gotten better at.

I'm certainly hoping for improvement, and actually expect to see it from our young players...I believe more often than not second year players show improvement. And I think Vegas expects it too, because their projected win total is more than 10 wins more than last year (and I recognize some of the increase is due to going back to 82 games this season). But I also think we need to be realistic in our expectations about Ant and Jaden. I was as firmly on the Jaden bandwagon as anyone last season, and was excited to see what he could do in Summer League. But I have to say I was mildly disappointed in what I saw. The Wolves gave him the keys to the car, but he really didn't show us much on offense. I would have expected him to at least make second team all summer league after the way he played last year, but he didn't. I'm confident he will continue to be an excellent defender...his footwork is terrific and he seems to get it. But I'm not convinced he has a very high ceiling offensively.

And while I agree that Ant was much better the second half of the season, a lot of the difference was because he was so bad the first half. And his defense didn't look any better to me the second half. His ratings seem to back up my eye test. His ORtg went from a dreadful 92 to a respectable 108, but his DRtg stayed consistent at a horrible 117 throughout the year. Many of us consistently pointed out his defensive deficiencies during the year, and unfortunately it seemed like the lightbulb never really came on. If he and Dlo are paired in the backcourt this season, we're going to need to see some remarkable improvement in Ant's D if we're going to beat the Vegas line for once.

So yeah, we should expect some improvement...and we damn well need it if we're going to be competitive.

[Coolbreeze44]

FNG, I get what you are saying about Jaden's summer league performance. But it's not like he didn't play good on offense, he just wasn't great like we had hoped. But it was only a couple months since the regular season had ended, he wasn't going to make a huge transformation in that time. Let's hope that with a full training camp and preseason he can just continue to make consistent progress. Maybe he doesn't take a big step forward until year 3.