What’s really going on?

[Lipoli390]

Jon K reports the meeting with Glen was assuring Butler they were moving forward with trading him and they came to agreement. He also said that Glen addresses the team. He reported Thibs said he and Glen communicate multiple times a day. It seems either Glen is a clueless baffon (ok sadly that's pretty likely) or things are not as bad as some of the reporting makes it sound like. Honestly it's probably a mix of both. Lol

Now let's say the reports are true of the offers we have received for whatever reason...might as well wait. It's a ways into the season but December 15 opens up a lot more options for teams. The landscape of moving 1st round picks for rentals has changed but this is Jimmy Butler. That's a hell of a rental. Bobby Marks Tweeted he sees teams wanting him more as time goes on and won't be surprised if the offers get better. Marks isn't always dead on but it's encouraging to hear someone like that say it.

Hard to know what is going on in Glen's mind. If Glen says he and Thibs are communicating regularly every day, I believe him. My guess is Thibodeau has very little to tell him each time they talk -- something like this:

Glen: "What's Jimmy's status?"
Thibs: "He's still here"
Glen: "I know he's still here. Are you getting close to a deal?"
Thibs: "No"
Glen: "Could you elaborate?"
Thibs: "Yes"
Glen: "Then please elaborate!"
Thibs: "Jimmy's a type 10 player in the League." We're not going to do a bad deal."
Glen: "I talked to the Micky (Miami's owner) this morning. He said you're getting close to something."
Thibs: "Well, we'll see." I'm not going to do a bad deal. Jimmy's a top 10 player..."
Glen: "I know. You said that already. But Micky told me they're now willing to include Richardson. You've told me he's key to getting a deal with them. So sounds like we're just about there."
Thibs: "We'll see. Jimmy's a top 10 player in the League. We're not going to do a bad deal."
Glen: "You said that already!!!" What's holding up the Richardson deal?"
Thibs: "They want us to take Waiters to match salaries."
Glen: "Who's he?"
Thibs: "He's a bottom-10 player in the League with a contract like the one I gave Gorgui."
Glen: OK, never mind. Keep me posted.

[Monster]

Jon K reports the meeting with Glen was assuring Butler they were moving forward with trading him and they came to agreement. He also said that Glen addresses the team. He reported Thibs said he and Glen communicate multiple times a day. It seems either Glen is a clueless baffon (ok sadly that's pretty likely) or things are not as bad as some of the reporting makes it sound like. Honestly it's probably a mix of both. Lol

Now let's say the reports are true of the offers we have received for whatever reason...might as well wait. It's a ways into the season but December 15 opens up a lot more options for teams. The landscape of moving 1st round picks for rentals has changed but this is Jimmy Butler. That's a hell of a rental. Bobby Marks Tweeted he sees teams wanting him more as time goes on and won't be surprised if the offers get better. Marks isn't always dead on but it's encouraging to hear someone like that say it.

Hard to know what is going on in Glen's mind. If Glen says he and Thibs are communicating regularly every day, I believe him. My guess is Thibodeau has very little to tell him each time they talk -- something like this:

Glen: "What's Jimmy's status?"
Thibs: "He's still here"
Glen: "I know he's still here. Are you getting close to a deal?"
Thibs: "No"
Glen: "Could you elaborate?"
Thibs: "Yes"
Glen: "Then please elaborate!"
Thibs: "Jimmy's a type 10 player in the League." We're not going to do a bad deal."
Glen: "I talked to the Micky (Miami's owner) this morning. He said you're getting close to something."
Thibs: "Well, we'll see." I'm not going to do a bad deal. Jimmy's a top 10 player..."
Glen: "I know. You said that already. But Micky told me they're now willing to include Richardson. You've told me he's key to getting a deal with them. So sounds like we're just about there."
Thibs: "We'll see. Jimmy's a top 10 player in the League. We're not going to do a bad deal."
Glen: "You said that already!!!" What's holding up the Richardson deal?"
Thibs: "They want us to take Waiters to match salaries."
Glen: "Who's he?"
Thibs: "He's a bottom-10 player in the League with a contract like the one I gave Gorgui."
Glen: OK, never mind. Keep me posted.

Oh man those last couple lines were great!!! Lol

[Lipoli390]

Monster -- Bobby Marks' view that Butler's value will go up as the season progresses needs some thorough explanation. The only factor that could help facilitate a trade is the Dec. 15 date, which would free up additional players to include in trades. Otherwise, I don't see any logical basis for concluding that Jimmy's trade value will go up.

Yet, there's a huge risk in waiting. If Butler suffers a significant injury his value goes way down, possibly to zero, depending on the severity of the injury. And of course, Jimmy tends to get injured. Even if it's just another miniscus in the other knee, that seriously diminishes Jimmy's trade value given his one-year rental status at this point. As a one-year rental, the prospect of missed games has a much bigger impact on his trade value. Jimmy's value is based entirely on his contribution to wins. It's a positive per-game impact. Each game he plays is a game he helps your team win. That means his overall value is tied to the number of games he plays. So it's not just games missed via injury. Every game Butler remains with the Wolves is one less game a potential trade partners gets from Jimmy. Therefore, in addition to the injury risk, Butler's trade value to other teams logically goes down over time.

Also, another eruption between Butler and the team or particular players would further diminish the little leverage the Wolves have and further drive Jimmy's value down.

I've said this from the beginning and I'll repeat it now. A thoughtful, objective evaluation of the situation suggests that the longer the Wolves wait, the less the Wolves will likely get in return for Jimmy. Events could certainly happen that increase his value. But those are highly speculative and uncertain. If we're going to trade him, we need to do so sooner rather than later. Jimmy's market value is what it is. We can't change that. If the value isn't good enough now, it likely won't get better over time and it goes away entirely after the Feb. trade deadline. So not trading Butler soon likely means keeping him for the rest of the season or getting even less for him via trade in the December-Feb. timeframe. At that point, I'd just as soon keep him and clear his salary next summer. But the better move, in my view, is to do a deal yet this month and get something of value in return.

[Monster]

Monster -- Bobby Marks' view that Butler's value will go up as the season progresses needs some thorough explanation. The only factor that could help facilitate a trade is the Dec. 15 date, which would free up additional players to include in trades. Otherwise, I don't see any logical basis for concluding that Jimmy's trade value will go up.

Yet, there's a huge risk in waiting. If Butler suffers a significant injury his value goes way down, possibly to zero, depending on the severity of the injury. And of course, Jimmy tends to get injured. Even if it's just another miniscus in the other knee, that seriously diminishes Jimmy's trade value given his one-year rental status at this point. As a one-year rental, the prospect of missed games has a much bigger impact on his trade value. Jimmy's value is based entirely on his contribution to wins. It's a positive per-game impact. Each game he plays is a game he helps your team win. That means his overall value is tied to the number of games he plays. So it's not just games missed via injury. Every game Butler remains with the Wolves is one less game a potential trade partners gets from Jimmy. Therefore, in addition to the injury risk, Butler's trade value to other teams logically goes down over time.

Also, another eruption between Butler and the team or particular players would further diminish the little leverage the Wolves have and further drive Jimmy's value down.

I've said this from the beginning and I'll repeat it now. A thoughtful, objective evaluation of the situation suggests that the longer the Wolves wait, the less the Wolves will likely get in return for Jimmy. Events could certainly happen that increase his value. But those are highly speculative and uncertain. If we're going to trade him, we need to do so sooner rather than later. Jimmy's market value is what it is. We can't change that. If the value isn't good enough now, it likely won't get better over time and it goes away entirely after the Feb. trade deadline. So not trading Butler soon likely means keeping him for the rest of the season or getting even less for him via trade in the December-Feb. timeframe. At that point, I'd just as soon keep him and clear his salary next summer. But the better move, in my view, is to do a deal yet this month and get something of value in return.

If your theory of value going down so much then why do teams wait till the trade deadline to do deals? You are assuming teams are rational. Honestly often they aren't. Marks tweet said some team will thinknthey are a Butler away from being a contender. Yep there is risk involved but again we don't actually know what the offers are now. Depending on the offers the risk of getting nothing for Butler (keep in mind of possible sign and trade options would still be possible in the offseason) might not be so terrible.

Edit:

Lip I think my post replying to you started out in an argumentative tone and that wasn't my intent. It was a counterpoint with some tongue in cheek. I think a lot of your concerns are valid.

[Monster]

I'll add here that like this thread title throughout this process so was always wondering what was really going on. Something didn't make sense. Something was missing. There are still a lot of questions but I do think I see how Jimmy isn't happy with not getting a new contract and that's a legit significant piece. That's not the whole thing but it's much bigger one than I had knowledge of or put together. His sit down with Nichols revealed that. So while I still think there are issuses e has with teammates and likely they have some issues with him I think that it's not THE thing that put him here it's maybe what put him over the edge. After considering that I thinknthere is a decent chance this team can co-exist well enough till a trade happens. It's far from ideal but I don't think it's going to be quite as toxic as I had expected. Wins and losses are obviously gonna be a big factor in how quickly things could go the wrong way.

[mjs34]

Monster -- Bobby Marks' view that Butler's value will go up as the season progresses needs some thorough explanation. The only factor that could help facilitate a trade is the Dec. 15 date, which would free up additional players to include in trades. Otherwise, I don't see any logical basis for concluding that Jimmy's trade value will go up.

Yet, there's a huge risk in waiting. If Butler suffers a significant injury his value goes way down, possibly to zero, depending on the severity of the injury. And of course, Jimmy tends to get injured. Even if it's just another miniscus in the other knee, that seriously diminishes Jimmy's trade value given his one-year rental status at this point. As a one-year rental, the prospect of missed games has a much bigger impact on his trade value. Jimmy's value is based entirely on his contribution to wins. It's a positive per-game impact. Each game he plays is a game he helps your team win. That means his overall value is tied to the number of games he plays. So it's not just games missed via injury. Every game Butler remains with the Wolves is one less game a potential trade partners gets from Jimmy. Therefore, in addition to the injury risk, Butler's trade value to other teams logically goes down over time.

Also, another eruption between Butler and the team or particular players would further diminish the little leverage the Wolves have and further drive Jimmy's value down.

I've said this from the beginning and I'll repeat it now. A thoughtful, objective evaluation of the situation suggests that the longer the Wolves wait, the less the Wolves will likely get in return for Jimmy. Events could certainly happen that increase his value. But those are highly speculative and uncertain. If we're going to trade him, we need to do so sooner rather than later. Jimmy's market value is what it is. We can't change that. If the value isn't good enough now, it likely won't get better over time and it goes away entirely after the Feb. trade deadline. So not trading Butler soon likely means keeping him for the rest of the season or getting even less for him via trade in the December-Feb. timeframe. At that point, I'd just as soon keep him and clear his salary next summer. But the better move, in my view, is to do a deal yet this month and get something of value in return.

Lip, I think it is the exact opposite. The closer we get to the PO's the more likely teams are to look at Butler. Interested teams already expect to make the PO's, but they want Jimmy to put them over the top. Teams like GS, Hou, SA, etc. are more worried about injuries during the season, and going into the post-season healthy than they are about their respective regular season records.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Personally, I think a player offers more value for 80 games... than 40 games.

Don't recent NBA trades show this to be true?


[Note: I'm not entirely sure... but it makes sense. Furthermore... imagine you're a team with big hopes. Wouldn't it be dangerous to try to get a guy like Butler to fit in with less time before the playoffs?]

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Personally, I think a player offers more value for 80 games... than 40 games.

Don't recent NBA trades show this to be true?


[Note: I'm not entirely sure... but it makes sense. Furthermore... imagine you're a team with big hopes. Wouldn't it be dangerous to try to get a guy like Butler to fit in with less time before the playoffs?]

Given that his biggest gripe right now seems to be money, getting that 5th year to offer him that nobody else can is huge. It could be a half year rental, but the reality is it puts you in the driver's seat to retain his services long-term and teams rarely regret that when they get a top 15 guy. Just look at the PG13 situation. That was a huge risk for them and it paid off because they got him in the building and on their team and they got to talk to him before anyone else. Teams are also gonna be going after Kawhi first so whoever gets Jimmy is gonna have the chance to sign him when other teams are looking elsewhere first. This trade is for the next 5 years, not just 40 games. Could it just be 40 games? Sure. When money is the driving force and if you are willing to give him that 5 year deal it puts you majorly in the driver's seat to retain him. That's also why I find it hard to believe if we play out the year that he's just out. He'd be leaving the most lucrative year of his playing career on the table just to get out and he seems to care more about the money right now than his teammates. If it's money then whoever has him is in the driver's seat even if it would just be for a sign and trade for us.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Personally, I think a player offers more value for 80 games... than 40 games.

Don't recent NBA trades show this to be true?


[Note: I'm not entirely sure... but it makes sense. Furthermore... imagine you're a team with big hopes. Wouldn't it be dangerous to try to get a guy like Butler to fit in with less time before the playoffs?]

Given that his biggest gripe right now seems to be money, getting that 5th year to offer him that nobody else can is huge. It could be a half year rental, but the reality is it puts you in the driver's seat to retain his services long-term and teams rarely regret that when they get a top 15 guy. Just look at the PG13 situation. That was a huge risk for them and it paid off because they got him in the building and on their team and they got to talk to him before anyone else. Teams are also gonna be going after Kawhi first so whoever gets Jimmy is gonna have the chance to sign him when other teams are looking elsewhere first. This trade is for the next 5 years, not just 40 games. Could it just be 40 games? Sure. When money is the driving force and if you are willing to give him that 5 year deal it puts you majorly in the driver's seat to retain him. That's also why I find it hard to believe if we play out the year that he's just out. He'd be leaving the most lucrative year of his playing career on the table just to get out and he seems to care more about the money right now than his teammates. If it's money then whoever has him is in the driver's seat even if it would just be for a sign and trade for us.

My point stands.

Wouldn't a team... and Butler... have a much better idea if it was a good fit with 80+ games...

[Monster]

I'm most of the way through this recent podcast (it's normally a heatcentric podcast) with Stan Van Gundy who is an interesting guy to get his thoughts on things considering his past roles and relationships around the league. The most interesting thing was early when he said how surprised he was that anything (or as much) got out about trade talks between the Wolves and the Heat. He said both of those teams nothing gets out. We know about the Wolves little getting out and I've seen a number of media people on Twitter say that the Heat are pretty tight as well. The Host and Stan both said it was surprising so much got out or was reported that Riley acknowledged there was talks with his recent comments. One thought I had was...supposedly the Wolves and Heat haven't talked lately...maybe the teams are on absolute lock down and nobody knows now.

SVG is an interesting guy with some opinions but it's been some good stuff from him. Not a must listen but there is some good stuff in there if you have the time.

https://fivereasons.podbean.com/e/stan-van-gundy-on-jimmy-butler-heat-nba/

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/five-reasons-sports-miami/id1336060206?mt=2#episodeGuid=FiveReasons.podbean.com%2Fstan-van-gundy-on-jimmy-butler-heat-nba-ad2e2e66603fc2a2bc1d607c254aa116