Schedule rest of the year does not look good
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khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
- Posts: 6414
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
Is the Klunk-O-Meter a real thing or just made up on here because it has us only going 5-11 the rest of the way when we have the best point differential of the teams fighting for 8th and have already upset the likes of the Clippers and GS?
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
khans2k5 wrote:Is the Klunk-O-Meter a real thing or just made up on here because it has us only going 5-11 the rest of the way when we have the best point differential of the teams fighting for 8th and have already upset the likes of the Clippers and GS?
It's just a made up thing. Teams are split up into 3 tiers. When two teams play, the higher tier team should always win. When two teams in the same tier play, the home team should win. And thus a prediction on future games can be made.
The KOM can be "recalibrated" by adjusting the tiers. The Wolves started out in tier 2, but their play as of late suggests they belong in tier 1. But I figure we will go a little longer before recalibrating...
And yes, the Wolves are forecast to go 5-11, which would have been very realistic with how the Wolves were playing before the all-star break, and their extremely road-heavy schedule remaining against good teams, which matches very well with Q's predictions.
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
Update to my win estimate as well. Originally I 'predicted' (in reality I more or less hoped) following line for already played games (actual result after arrow):
Dallas - W -> W
@ Houston - W/L -> L
@ Sacramento - W -> W
@ Utah - W/L -> W
@ San Antonio - L -> L
Clippers - W/L -> W
Warriors - W/L -> W
@ Milwaukee - W/L -> L
So Wolves are still half a game ahead even my optimistic win prediction. For remaining schedule my latest expected result after arrow.
Washington - L -> W/L Washington has not anymore looked that good. Since this is our home game, I think we might have change for victory.
@ Boston - L Difficult to find any reason for hope against Boston in their house.
@ Miami - W/L Miami's winning streak ended and I expect that they won't continue to play as well as during that streak. I also won't expect that they would hit again 15 three pointers against us. Should be winnable game for Wolves.
@ New Orleans - W/L This one won't be easy even tough New Orleans could really use more outside shooting. Both Boogie and Davis have had monster games against Wolves in past and since New Orleans doesn't have their own pick in next draft, they have no reason to tank. (New Orleans will keep their pick only if it's top3. So probability to keep it is pretty low even if they tank.)
San Antonio - L Unless San Antonio rests all starters I don't see them losing.
@ Lakers - W Lakers traded their best scorer and I expect that they start tanking to have more hope to keep their pick next summer. (they lose it if it's not top3)
@ Portland - L 2nd game of back to back for us. Most probably loss even tough win would put us probably ahead of Portland.
@ Indiana - L Indiana has been really erratic this season. On good day they can win whatever team (wins against Clipper with CP3 twice and Houston and losses to Philly & Brooklyn) but they have played much better at home. So probably loss for Wolves.
Lakers - W See previous Lakers game
Sacramento - W Sacramento without Cousins is one of the worst teams in league. Should be easy win for Wolves.
Portland - W Portland is one team that we have change to catch by just winning our remaining three games against them. Lillard and McCollum just seem to be too clutch but we should win them at least home.
@ Golden State - L 2nd game of back to back for us. Even without Durant I don't see Golden State losing this one.
@ Portland - W/L I think this is a game that we have to win to have a any hope for playoffs.
@ Utah - L Second game of back to back for us. Probably no chance.
@ Lakers - W See previous Lakers game
OKC - W/L -> W Since Memphis is currently struggling, I think OKC have secured 6th seed at this point and they will rest Westbrook.
@ Houston - W I expect that this is meaningless game to Houston. They have secured 3rd seed before last game and I expect them to rest Harden.
So after latest games, I have Wolves final amount of wins between 34 and 38 with 36 as mean.
Latest ESPN estimates in playoff odds page, have Denver ending with 38 wins, Portland with 36 and both Dallas and Wolves with 35. Wolves passed Dallas in playoff odds when Dallas lost to Phoenix. Still they give us just 6.6% chance for playoff spot.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-oddshttp://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds
My latest estimate for other teams in playoff competition will have Denver with 38, Portland with 37 and Dallas with 35.5 wins. I guess that the reason why my estimates are typically little higher is that I expect some top teams resting their players in last couple of games that would result some surprise wins.
Dallas - W -> W
@ Houston - W/L -> L
@ Sacramento - W -> W
@ Utah - W/L -> W
@ San Antonio - L -> L
Clippers - W/L -> W
Warriors - W/L -> W
@ Milwaukee - W/L -> L
So Wolves are still half a game ahead even my optimistic win prediction. For remaining schedule my latest expected result after arrow.
Washington - L -> W/L Washington has not anymore looked that good. Since this is our home game, I think we might have change for victory.
@ Boston - L Difficult to find any reason for hope against Boston in their house.
@ Miami - W/L Miami's winning streak ended and I expect that they won't continue to play as well as during that streak. I also won't expect that they would hit again 15 three pointers against us. Should be winnable game for Wolves.
@ New Orleans - W/L This one won't be easy even tough New Orleans could really use more outside shooting. Both Boogie and Davis have had monster games against Wolves in past and since New Orleans doesn't have their own pick in next draft, they have no reason to tank. (New Orleans will keep their pick only if it's top3. So probability to keep it is pretty low even if they tank.)
San Antonio - L Unless San Antonio rests all starters I don't see them losing.
@ Lakers - W Lakers traded their best scorer and I expect that they start tanking to have more hope to keep their pick next summer. (they lose it if it's not top3)
@ Portland - L 2nd game of back to back for us. Most probably loss even tough win would put us probably ahead of Portland.
@ Indiana - L Indiana has been really erratic this season. On good day they can win whatever team (wins against Clipper with CP3 twice and Houston and losses to Philly & Brooklyn) but they have played much better at home. So probably loss for Wolves.
Lakers - W See previous Lakers game
Sacramento - W Sacramento without Cousins is one of the worst teams in league. Should be easy win for Wolves.
Portland - W Portland is one team that we have change to catch by just winning our remaining three games against them. Lillard and McCollum just seem to be too clutch but we should win them at least home.
@ Golden State - L 2nd game of back to back for us. Even without Durant I don't see Golden State losing this one.
@ Portland - W/L I think this is a game that we have to win to have a any hope for playoffs.
@ Utah - L Second game of back to back for us. Probably no chance.
@ Lakers - W See previous Lakers game
OKC - W/L -> W Since Memphis is currently struggling, I think OKC have secured 6th seed at this point and they will rest Westbrook.
@ Houston - W I expect that this is meaningless game to Houston. They have secured 3rd seed before last game and I expect them to rest Harden.
So after latest games, I have Wolves final amount of wins between 34 and 38 with 36 as mean.
Latest ESPN estimates in playoff odds page, have Denver ending with 38 wins, Portland with 36 and both Dallas and Wolves with 35. Wolves passed Dallas in playoff odds when Dallas lost to Phoenix. Still they give us just 6.6% chance for playoff spot.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-oddshttp://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds
My latest estimate for other teams in playoff competition will have Denver with 38, Portland with 37 and Dallas with 35.5 wins. I guess that the reason why my estimates are typically little higher is that I expect some top teams resting their players in last couple of games that would result some surprise wins.
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
Interesting stretch coming up: Wolves, Nuggets and Blazers are all suppose to lose their next 4 games. Any wins are a bonus in the KOM standings...
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
I don't think there's any way we catch Denver. For the size of their Market they have been a well run franchise for a while. After losing Carmelo they were able to keep they head above water by continually collecting assets and drafting well for their position.
Now they have a big offseason ahead of them to move some of that talent or make a signing.
I am happy we made it to 500 at home this year. If we can improve on that through the end of the season I think that is something to hang out hat on. It's been such a long journey that we all want the success of this team to be more rapid.
Now they have a big offseason ahead of them to move some of that talent or make a signing.
I am happy we made it to 500 at home this year. If we can improve on that through the end of the season I think that is something to hang out hat on. It's been such a long journey that we all want the success of this team to be more rapid.
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
The KOM doesn't understand the love for Denver. Portland is 3 games ahead of Denver for the 8th seed, and 4 games ahead of the Wolves.
Denver only has 6 more home games, and they will only be favored in 2 of them. Portland, on the other hand, has 10 more home games, and they will be favored in 7 of them. The odds favor Portland much more than Denver.
Denver only has 6 more home games, and they will only be favored in 2 of them. Portland, on the other hand, has 10 more home games, and they will be favored in 7 of them. The odds favor Portland much more than Denver.
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AbeVigodaLive
- Posts: 10272
- Joined: Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
60WinTim wrote:The KOM doesn't understand the love for Denver. Portland is 3 games ahead of Denver for the 8th seed, and 4 games ahead of the Wolves.
Denver only has 6 more home games, and they will only be favored in 2 of them. Portland, on the other hand, has 10 more home games, and they will be favored in 7 of them. The odds favor Portland much more than Denver.
Huh?
Denver is 32 - 35.
Portland is 29 - 36.
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
AbeVigodaLive wrote:60WinTim wrote:The KOM doesn't understand the love for Denver. Portland is 3 games ahead of Denver for the 8th seed, and 4 games ahead of the Wolves.
Denver only has 6 more home games, and they will only be favored in 2 of them. Portland, on the other hand, has 10 more home games, and they will be favored in 7 of them. The odds favor Portland much more than Denver.
Huh?
Denver is 32 - 35.
Portland is 29 - 36.
It's the KOM. Portland is projected to finish 3 games ahead of Denver for the 8th seed at the end of the season.
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
- Posts: 13844
- Joined: Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
New Orleans - W - Actual L
Chicago - W - Actual W
Cleveland - L - Actual L
@ Denver - L - Actual W
Dallas - W - Actual W
@ Houston - L - Actual L
@ Sacramento - W/L - Actual W
@ Utah - L - Actual W
@ San Antonio - L - Actual L
Portland - W - Postponed
Clippers - L - Actual W
Warriors - L - Actual W
@ Milwaukee - W/L - Actual L
Washington - L - Actual W
@ Boston - L
@ Miami - L
@ New Orleans - W/L
San Antonio - W
@ Lakers - W/L
@ Portland - L
@ Indiana - L
Lakers - W
Sacramento - W
@ Golden State - L
@ Portland - L
@ Utah - L
@ Lakers - W/L
OKC - L
@ Houston - L
We are now 3 games ahead of the pace I first predicted. As a result, it's a near certainty that we will win more games than last season. Improvement!
6 of the next 7 on the road.....the gauntlet continues.
Chicago - W - Actual W
Cleveland - L - Actual L
@ Denver - L - Actual W
Dallas - W - Actual W
@ Houston - L - Actual L
@ Sacramento - W/L - Actual W
@ Utah - L - Actual W
@ San Antonio - L - Actual L
Portland - W - Postponed
Clippers - L - Actual W
Warriors - L - Actual W
@ Milwaukee - W/L - Actual L
Washington - L - Actual W
@ Boston - L
@ Miami - L
@ New Orleans - W/L
San Antonio - W
@ Lakers - W/L
@ Portland - L
@ Indiana - L
Lakers - W
Sacramento - W
@ Golden State - L
@ Portland - L
@ Utah - L
@ Lakers - W/L
OKC - L
@ Houston - L
We are now 3 games ahead of the pace I first predicted. As a result, it's a near certainty that we will win more games than last season. Improvement!
6 of the next 7 on the road.....the gauntlet continues.
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SameOldNudityDrew
- Posts: 3128
- Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Schedule rest of the year does not look good
I love it. Just fighting to get in, it's like we're actually in the playoffs now. I forgot what this was like in the last decade!