Minnesota Sports Forum

I'm bored at work and since there's no FA to talk about... I saw Jon Lester retired today.

Resume

3.66 Career ERA
200 Wins 117 Losses
2488 Strike out
4 Top 10 Cy young Votes including a Runner up in 2016
5 All Star Appearances
3 World Series
30th Lefty Pitcher to win 200 games

I think these HoF numbers for SP these days.

Scott Rolen 6th year on Ballot 51%of the vote last year

Career .281 Avg 316 HR
2077 Hits
1278 Rbi's
7 Time All Star
1997 ROY
8 Gold Gloves (Only Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson have more)
9th Best WAR of third basemen all time at 70.1
Only 1 Top 10 finish in MVP voting
Silver Slugger 2002
World Series Champ 2006

Honestly he was one my favorite players growing up. Should definitely be in was always overshadowed by Chipper Jones.

Jester1534 wrote:I'm bored at work and since there's no FA to talk about... I saw Jon Lester retired today.

Resume

3.66 Career ERA
200 Wins 117 Losses
2488 Strike out
4 Top 10 Cy young Votes including a Runner up in 2016
5 All Star Appearances
3 World Series
30th Lefty Pitcher to win 200 games

I think these HoF numbers for SP these days.

His numbers compare favorable to recent inductee Mike Mussina, so I think Lester has a shot. 50/50, I'd say.

jester1534 wrote:Scott Rolen 6th year on Ballot 51%of the vote last year

Career .281 Avg 316 HR
2077 Hits
1278 Rbi's
7 Time All Star
1997 ROY
8 Gold Gloves (Only Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson have more)
9th Best WAR of third basemen all time at 70.1
Only 1 Top 10 finish in MVP voting
Silver Slugger 2002
World Series Champ 2006

Honestly he was one my favorite players growing up. Should definitely be in was always overshadowed by Chipper Jones.

FWIW My gut feeling on Rolen is that he is a HOFer.

This is a fun thread that I'm sure with more names could spark some interesting and perhaps passionate debate.

For me, I think Jon Lester is in the Hall-of-Very-Good. I think his resume relies far more on longevity and playoff success than actual greatness. He's also very much like Andy Pettitte in that he would be viewed a lot differently without his post-season play. Not to mention, Pettitte has a much stronger resume and still can't find the votes. Obviously, you can't fault a guy for producing in big moments when he has the opportunities, but Lester's career is closer to above average than it is elite when you zoom out and look at things through a skeptical lens. I don't think Lester makes the cut.

Jon Lester (149th-best SP):
44.2 career WAR | 34.6 7yr-peak WAR | 39.4 JAWS | 39.4 S-JAWS | 3.3 WAR/162

Average HOF P (out of 66):
73.0 career WAR | 49.8 7yr-peak WAR | 61.4 JAWS | 56.8 S-JAWS | 4.5 WAR/162

I think Scott Rolen's a Hall-of-Famer and I think he gets enough votes either this year or next. We're talking about a seven-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glover. He's revered for his defense at the hot corner as well as his powerful, middle-of-the-order bat from the right side. He'll be remembered forever for being an integral part of those early 2000's Cardinals teams, which were fantastic for baseball. I think since Edgar Martinez made it, then Rolen should almost be a lock.

Scott Rolen (10th-best 3B):
70.1 career WAR | 43.6 7yr-peak WAR | 56.9 JAWS | 5.6 WAR/162

Average HOF 3B (out of 15):
68.4 career WAR | 43.1 7yr-peak WAR | 55.8 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

FNG wrote:His numbers compare favorable to recent inductee Mike Mussina, so I think Lester has a shot. 50/50, I'd say.

I thought this was an interesting comparison so I decided to make a quick head-to-head.

Jon Lester (149th-best SP):
44.2 career WAR | 34.6 7yr-peak WAR | 39.4 JAWS | 39.4 S-JAWS | 3.3 WAR/162

Mike Mussina (20th-best SP):
82.8 career WAR | 44.5 7yr-peak WAR | 63.6 JAWS | 63.6 S-JAWS | 5.2 WAR/162

Camden wrote:

FNG wrote:His numbers compare favorable to recent inductee Mike Mussina, so I think Lester has a shot. 50/50, I'd say.

I thought this was an interesting comparison so I decided to make a quick head-to-head.

Jon Lester (149th-best SP):
44.2 career WAR | 34.6 7yr-peak WAR | 39.4 JAWS | 39.4 S-JAWS | 3.3 WAR/162

Mike Mussina (20th-best SP):
82.8 career WAR | 44.5 7yr-peak WAR | 63.6 JAWS | 63.6 S-JAWS | 5.2 WAR/162

Cam I brought this subject up because how would you define a HoF starting pitcher in this day and age with starters getting pulled so fast?

I love the comparison of Mussina and Lester but even though there only 10-15 years apart in pitching history. They're in two totally different areas of baseball when it comes to pitching philosophy.

jester1534 wrote:

Camden wrote:

FNG wrote:His numbers compare favorable to recent inductee Mike Mussina, so I think Lester has a shot. 50/50, I'd say.

I thought this was an interesting comparison so I decided to make a quick head-to-head.

Jon Lester (149th-best SP):
44.2 career WAR | 34.6 7yr-peak WAR | 39.4 JAWS | 39.4 S-JAWS | 3.3 WAR/162

Mike Mussina (20th-best SP):
82.8 career WAR | 44.5 7yr-peak WAR | 63.6 JAWS | 63.6 S-JAWS | 5.2 WAR/162

Cam I brought this subject up because how would you define a HoF starting pitcher in this day and age with starters getting pulled so fast?

I love the comparison of Mussina and Lester but even though there only 10-15 years apart in pitching history. They're in two totally different areas of baseball when it comes to pitching philosophy.

I agree that how these pitchers are managed nowadays can and will affect their Hall-of-Fame resumes. We're likely going to see those averages I posted watered down or decreased as time goes on as a result.

Here's where I would begin. When I think of the absolute best pitchers over the decade, I think of Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, and Jacob deGrom. I think all of these guys are no doubt about it Hall-of-Famers except for maybe Hernandez. I think those pitchers and their careers help set the new benchmark moving forward.

Considering deGrom still has elite years ahead of him, I'm going to skip him when talking about the worst among this group in terms of WAR, JAWS, and overall Hall-of-Fame probability.

Chris Sale
46.5 career WAR | 39.5 7yr-peak WAR | 43.0 JAWS | 43.0 S-JAWS | 5.6 WAR/162

Felix Hernandez:
50.2 career WAR | 38.5 7yr-peak WAR | 44.3 JAWS | 44.3 S-JAWS | 4.1 WAR/162

Those two have the least favorable resumes among my list of greats from the last decade or so. But I also lived through their dominance. I know they were elite because they were consistently among the best, if not THE best, pitchers in the sport at some point in time. I think that, or close to it, is where the comparison goes from here. Any career short of that will have a difficult time making it, in my opinion.

Ouch, after seeing Cam's numbers, I think Lester is a long shot at best to make the HOF. I picked Mussina as a comp because he seems to have the least impressive numbers of the last 10 or so starters inducted. But Lester's numbers are so far short of Mussina's, or the average inductee for that matter, I don't think he deserves the Hall now.

And shouldn't today's pitchers be held to a higher standard than those of previous eras, since they rarely have to face a batter 4 times in a game? Sure, their innings pitched and K numbers will be hurt, but they have a huge advantage only seeing a batter 3 times a game. We've all seen how ERA's skyrocket for the typical pitcher once they get past the 6th inning.