The case for not having Kirilloff start out the year on the Twins roster.
Posted: Wed Mar 10, 2021 2:29 pm
As we know Kirilloff has service time has been what everyone has been talking about in spring training. I will give examples of why we should not give in and let him start the year as a Twin. This is not Fan view as I would love to see him. This entirely business move.
Example Byron Buxton
Byron Buxton has 2 years of service time left because the Twins decided not to call him up for September call up a couple years ago in a lost year. Reports are the Twins are trying to extend Buxton this spring. If they had not done what they did he would be a free agent after this year. Compare this to A DLO situation where we still do not know what full healthy year of Byron Buxton looks like. This was very criticized move at the time that going to pay off for the twins today. Especially with his most likely replacement Lewis going down with torn ACL. We could have been looking to replace a Centerfielder and Shortstop in free agency next year.
The Next Example is Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer was our number 1 prospect and was called up on Opening day and by that weekend he had tore his ACL and was lost for the year. Not only the year but the year of service time came off the books as well. You may ask yourself why does this matter? If the Twins held out Joe one Month, they would be saved at least 50 million on his big contract. Joe Mauer last Arbitration year was 2010. That year Joe hit .327 with 9 home runs with OPS of .871 and won another gold glove at catcher and had WAR of 5.9. He then Signed the infamous 8 year 184-million-dollar contract. Joe Mauer in 2011 hit .287 with 3 home runs and ops .729 with only 82 games played, which began his transition to first base. 3 years later we were paying premium catcher price for an average first basemen. This is all because we did not wait one month to call up Joe Mauer.
So, what should the Twins do about this conundrum? That worked out and also bit them in ass as well.
I would go with the Luis Robert approach. The more advance version of the Kepler deal but not insane like the Tatis deal. The White Sox gave an unproven guy they believed in 50 million. In return gives them 2 years of Free agency team options for 20 million with 1million dollar by outs. They basically bough Luis Robert two prime years at premium if he becomes the player he is supposed to be.
If you look at the Math yes in short term you do not benefit from the low arbitration cost but in long run you'll eventually save money. Let us look at Francisco Lindor since he is on the final year of arbitration. If we add 9 million due to covid last year in lost revenue has made exactly 50 million in his 7 years with the Indians. Yet he will eventually get paid 30 million plus these next two years by some team if not the Mets. If they Indians had signed him to the same type of deal, they would have 2 more years Lindor at 10 million less than he would go for today if not more cause the rates wouldn't been the same in 2015. Not only that but say Indians still wanted to shed payroll he would've fetched hell of a lot more than he did if he still had 2 years left on his contract.
Why does Kirilloff sign this deal? Its simple answer and its security. Even though he is giving up 20 million the back end he is guaranteeing himself of 50 million no mater what. Doesn't matter how he plays or fluke injuries his family is set up for next couple generations.
I am believer in Alex Kirilloff. I honestly believe he's going to be the twins 5 hitter for the next 8-10 years.
Example Byron Buxton
Byron Buxton has 2 years of service time left because the Twins decided not to call him up for September call up a couple years ago in a lost year. Reports are the Twins are trying to extend Buxton this spring. If they had not done what they did he would be a free agent after this year. Compare this to A DLO situation where we still do not know what full healthy year of Byron Buxton looks like. This was very criticized move at the time that going to pay off for the twins today. Especially with his most likely replacement Lewis going down with torn ACL. We could have been looking to replace a Centerfielder and Shortstop in free agency next year.
The Next Example is Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer was our number 1 prospect and was called up on Opening day and by that weekend he had tore his ACL and was lost for the year. Not only the year but the year of service time came off the books as well. You may ask yourself why does this matter? If the Twins held out Joe one Month, they would be saved at least 50 million on his big contract. Joe Mauer last Arbitration year was 2010. That year Joe hit .327 with 9 home runs with OPS of .871 and won another gold glove at catcher and had WAR of 5.9. He then Signed the infamous 8 year 184-million-dollar contract. Joe Mauer in 2011 hit .287 with 3 home runs and ops .729 with only 82 games played, which began his transition to first base. 3 years later we were paying premium catcher price for an average first basemen. This is all because we did not wait one month to call up Joe Mauer.
So, what should the Twins do about this conundrum? That worked out and also bit them in ass as well.
I would go with the Luis Robert approach. The more advance version of the Kepler deal but not insane like the Tatis deal. The White Sox gave an unproven guy they believed in 50 million. In return gives them 2 years of Free agency team options for 20 million with 1million dollar by outs. They basically bough Luis Robert two prime years at premium if he becomes the player he is supposed to be.
If you look at the Math yes in short term you do not benefit from the low arbitration cost but in long run you'll eventually save money. Let us look at Francisco Lindor since he is on the final year of arbitration. If we add 9 million due to covid last year in lost revenue has made exactly 50 million in his 7 years with the Indians. Yet he will eventually get paid 30 million plus these next two years by some team if not the Mets. If they Indians had signed him to the same type of deal, they would have 2 more years Lindor at 10 million less than he would go for today if not more cause the rates wouldn't been the same in 2015. Not only that but say Indians still wanted to shed payroll he would've fetched hell of a lot more than he did if he still had 2 years left on his contract.
Why does Kirilloff sign this deal? Its simple answer and its security. Even though he is giving up 20 million the back end he is guaranteeing himself of 50 million no mater what. Doesn't matter how he plays or fluke injuries his family is set up for next couple generations.
I am believer in Alex Kirilloff. I honestly believe he's going to be the twins 5 hitter for the next 8-10 years.