How Did Deadline Trades Impact Wolves?
Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2023 5:09 pm
The Wolves are currently in 8th place in the West, nipping on the heels of the Pelicans, a game behind the Clippers, Suns and Mavs, and 3 games behind the Kings. Meanwhile, the Warriors are only a half-game behind the Wolves, the Blazers 1.5 games behind, the Jazz and Thunder 2 games behind and the Lakers 3.5 games behind. So the Wolves have five teams within striking distance ahead of them and five teams within striking distance behind them.
We already knew it would be tough for the Wolves to climb over some or all of the five slightly ahead of them given the Wolves remaining schedule, which will be challenging. The question for discussion in this thread is what impact the flurry of deadline trades over the past week is likely to have on the Wolves chances of moving up or moving down in the standings.
I'll start with my brief assessment of the Wolves trade. I just don't think it moves the needle significantly if at all in either direction. NAW looks like a throw-in for salary match purposes. Conley might be a slightly better fit than DLO, but his age and difficult staying healthy undermine any slightly better fit he brings. So I don't see this deal moving the Wolves up or down in the standings.
So what about moving up in the standings? We'll, I think the Mavs and Suns have put the Wolves in their respective rear view mirrors with their deadline deals for Durant and Kyrie Irving. I think the Clippers have slightly improved for this season with the addition of Eric Gordon while improving longer term with Bones. Assuming Kawhi and Paul George remain healthy, I don't see the Wolves passing the Clippers, although it's possible. The Kings look like a team the Wolves should be able to surpass in the standings, but it won't be easy to close the 3.5 game gap given how difficult the Wolves remaining schedule is. The Pelicans have withstood losing Ingram for more games than KAT and Zion for a ton of games. Ingram is back now and Zion will likely return at least as soon as KAT. The Wolves could pass the Pelicans, but that won't be easily. So bottom line is that the Wolves probably can't climb higher than 6th and to get that high they'd have to pass both the Pelicans and the Kings, making up 3.5 games on the Kings to get that result.
What about slipping down? I thought the Wolves were better than the Blazers, Jazz and Thunder before the trade deadline and the only thing that's changed in my view is that the Blazers and Jazz have slipped a bit. The Blazers trade of Hart for Cam Reddish and other assets hurts the Blazers. The Jazz have obviously moved into full tank mode by trading Conley, Vanderbilt and Beasley. The Warriors remain dangerous, although they didn't improve with their deadline deals in my view. Then we come to the Lakers. I think they probably helped themselves with their deadline deals more than any other team except Dallas and Phoenix. Adding Hachimura, DLO, Vanderbilt, Beasley and Bamba to a roster with LeBron, Davis and Lonnie Walker and Dennis Schroder gives the Lakers a roster than I believe will overtake the Wolves. Bottom line is that the Wolves will probably finish ahead of all the teams currently behind them except the Lakers.
In the end, that leaves the Wolves finishing anywhere from 6th to 9th in the West. I think the most likely scenario will be 9th behind the seven teams currently ahead of them plus the Lakers. To finish as high as 6th, KAT will need to come back relatively soon, stay healthy and gel with Gobert in a way we didn't see in the 20+ games they played together while also adjusting to a new PG he's never played with. At this point, finishing 6th would be disappointing in light of what the Wolves gave up for Gobert, but it would also be fairly impressive given where this team is at right now.
We already knew it would be tough for the Wolves to climb over some or all of the five slightly ahead of them given the Wolves remaining schedule, which will be challenging. The question for discussion in this thread is what impact the flurry of deadline trades over the past week is likely to have on the Wolves chances of moving up or moving down in the standings.
I'll start with my brief assessment of the Wolves trade. I just don't think it moves the needle significantly if at all in either direction. NAW looks like a throw-in for salary match purposes. Conley might be a slightly better fit than DLO, but his age and difficult staying healthy undermine any slightly better fit he brings. So I don't see this deal moving the Wolves up or down in the standings.
So what about moving up in the standings? We'll, I think the Mavs and Suns have put the Wolves in their respective rear view mirrors with their deadline deals for Durant and Kyrie Irving. I think the Clippers have slightly improved for this season with the addition of Eric Gordon while improving longer term with Bones. Assuming Kawhi and Paul George remain healthy, I don't see the Wolves passing the Clippers, although it's possible. The Kings look like a team the Wolves should be able to surpass in the standings, but it won't be easy to close the 3.5 game gap given how difficult the Wolves remaining schedule is. The Pelicans have withstood losing Ingram for more games than KAT and Zion for a ton of games. Ingram is back now and Zion will likely return at least as soon as KAT. The Wolves could pass the Pelicans, but that won't be easily. So bottom line is that the Wolves probably can't climb higher than 6th and to get that high they'd have to pass both the Pelicans and the Kings, making up 3.5 games on the Kings to get that result.
What about slipping down? I thought the Wolves were better than the Blazers, Jazz and Thunder before the trade deadline and the only thing that's changed in my view is that the Blazers and Jazz have slipped a bit. The Blazers trade of Hart for Cam Reddish and other assets hurts the Blazers. The Jazz have obviously moved into full tank mode by trading Conley, Vanderbilt and Beasley. The Warriors remain dangerous, although they didn't improve with their deadline deals in my view. Then we come to the Lakers. I think they probably helped themselves with their deadline deals more than any other team except Dallas and Phoenix. Adding Hachimura, DLO, Vanderbilt, Beasley and Bamba to a roster with LeBron, Davis and Lonnie Walker and Dennis Schroder gives the Lakers a roster than I believe will overtake the Wolves. Bottom line is that the Wolves will probably finish ahead of all the teams currently behind them except the Lakers.
In the end, that leaves the Wolves finishing anywhere from 6th to 9th in the West. I think the most likely scenario will be 9th behind the seven teams currently ahead of them plus the Lakers. To finish as high as 6th, KAT will need to come back relatively soon, stay healthy and gel with Gobert in a way we didn't see in the 20+ games they played together while also adjusting to a new PG he's never played with. At this point, finishing 6th would be disappointing in light of what the Wolves gave up for Gobert, but it would also be fairly impressive given where this team is at right now.