The Starting Lineup Puzzle

[Q-is-here]

On paper, the starting lineup should be an offensive machine, as the sum of the parts is quite impressive. But having watched the team for 15 games, here is the puzzle that Finchie needs to solve.

Gobert - Elite rim roller that loves to plant himself in the paint and ask for the ball. When he secures the ball, he is an elite finisher. The problem is that his hands are unreliable, so his team mates don't always trust getting him the ball on those deep seals.

KAT - The guy can score from anywhere. He can shoot well from any range, drive to the basket, and is a reliable free thrower. But his greatest strength is his 3-point shooting, yet he is never among the league leaders in volume even though it could help his team more than anything else he does well. As a result, he often wants to operate in the same space as Gobert and Edwards.

McDaniels - On the floor for his defense, but his inability to be a consistent 3-point threat allows defenses to sag into the paint. This combined with Gobert's occupancy of the paint closes off driving lanes for KAT and Ant.

DLO - Prefers a methodical, ball-dominant role where he can pick apart a defense out of high screen and rolls. Gobert is ideally suited for being DLO's partner in this action. There are three problems with this: 1) Finch doesn't like to run a lot of high pick and roll, 2) and when he does, Ant takes himself out of the action and doesn't cut off ball very well, and 3) DLO has been on an epic cold streak dating back to late last season.

Ant - I saved him for last. He's just not a great "system" player where he is one of multiple cogs in a ball/player movement offense with a true big that occupies the paint. His instinct is to take guys on mano-a-mano with the ball in his hands and everyone else cleared the hell out. He's more James Harden than Klay Thompson. The problem is that when he resorts to his instinct, he's got guys surrounding him on offense that occupy his space, thus he's stuck taking a lot of jumpers or trying to squeeze tough shots off at the rim in traffic.

Finch needs to figure out a way to solve this puzzle. Are we trying too hard to take advantage of Gobert mis-matches when he has a little guy on him? Does he always have to try to take that guy into the paint, only to be ignored half the time while he clogs driving lanes?

I get that another option is to make changes to the starting lineup, but Finch's first priority is to do everything he can to unlock the existing starting lineup. What else could he be doing differently?

[FNG]

Good analysis, Q. I don't have the answers, but can only hope that the coaching staff does.

One thing I will point out is that the Wolves average an astonishing 14.9 fewer points per 100 offensive possessions when Gobert is on the court (second worse on the team is DLo at -7.9). If Rudy had a history of poor offensive performance, we could conclude that this is on him. But his worst offensive on/off year prior to this year (excluding his rookie year) was only a -2.1. And while he has been a monster on defense every year, he has also been a slight on/off positive on offense almost every season.

So this is on Finchie and the players...somehow they need to find a way to incorporate Rudy into the offensive flow as successfully as Utah did for many years. Rudy is known as one of the best screeners in the game, and that is one reason Utah's offense always clicked when he was on the court. Are we not using his screens effectively enough, and if not, what can be done to change that? What other reasons can you come up with for why our offense is so bad when Rudy is on the court? And if Rudy and Russell are by far our two worst offensive on/off performers, isn't that some evidence that that pairing isn't working, and that some lineup shuffling needs to happen?

[Q-is-here]

Good analysis, Q. I don't have the answers, but can only hope that the coaching staff does.

One thing I will point out is that the Wolves average an astonishing 14.9 fewer points per 100 offensive possessions when Gobert is on the court (second worse on the team is DLo at -7.9). If Rudy had a history of poor offensive performance, we could conclude that this is on him. But his worst offensive on/off year prior to this year (excluding his rookie year) was only a -2.1. And while he has been a monster on defense every year, he has also been a slight on/off positive on offense almost every season.

So this is on Finchie and the players...somehow they need to find a way to incorporate Rudy into the offensive flow as successfully as Utah did for many years. Rudy is known as one of the best screeners in the game, and that is one reason Utah's offense always clicked when he was on the court. Are we not using his screens effectively enough, and if not, what can be done to change that? What other reasons can you come up with for why our offense is so bad when Rudy is on the court? And if Rudy and Russell are by far our two worst offensive on/off performers, isn't that some evidence that that pairing isn't working, and that some lineup shuffling needs to happen?

Yeah, Gobert's presence has had a profound impact on how the team plays on both ends, more so than perhaps any of us imagined, and they are having a really tough time adjusting to it.

I think the issue is that Gobert is big and slow whereas Vando was smaller and quicker. So even though neither are threats from the outside, Vando was much more agile off the ball and clearing out of the paint. This in turn opened up driving lanes for KAT and Ant, which in turn generates more open shots for guys if the defense collapses.

There is also potentially a long-game here. While Utah was really effective in the regular season on offense, they failed to punish teams enough in the playoffs for putting a small guy on Gobert. They simply weren't used to trying to get him the ball during the regular season so it was very awkward to suddenly shift gears in the playoffs.

Could the Wolves be trying, almost to a fault, to encourage Gobert to post up small guys and be aggressive near the basket so that come playoff time the team is a lot better at punishing those matchups? We've seen some success between KAT and Gobert in a high-low concept, but otherwise everyone else is having a hard time adjusting.

[thedoper]

I assumed Rudy would be in the dunker spot on offense and be a glorified Vando. Instead Finch has been playing Kat as a pure 4 and Rudy has been taking Kat's role as the Center. I think once we understand how to utilize Rudy's screens this offense is going to fly. There have certainly been moments. Ant's press conference last nigh was pretty interesting. He gets that he needs to lead the way with sharing the ball, whether or not he will do it is another question. But he is pretty self aware at such a young age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrcZ_Idz378&t=325s&ab_channel=MinnesotaTimberwolves

[Q-is-here]

I assumed Rudy would be in the dunker spot on offense and be a glorified Vando. Instead Finch has been playing Kat as a pure 4 and Rudy has been taking Kat's role as the Center. I think once we understand how to utilize Rudy's screens this offense is going to fly. There have certainly been moments. Ant's press conference last nigh was pretty interesting. He gets that he needs to lead the way with sharing the ball, whether or not he will do it is another question. But he is pretty self aware at such a young age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrcZ_Idz378&t=325s&ab_channel=MinnesotaTimberwolves

Yeah, he says the right things but multiple times last night he waved off or just ignored Rudy who had his man sealed in the post.

Now, a very fair question to ask is which is better - getting the ball to Rudy in the post or clearing out and letting Ant go to work on a big that switched onto him? Ant thinks he will win his matchup every single time, so he doesn't pass it. I can actually accept either direction we go on this. But either Finch needs to just tell Rudy to vacate the paint in those situations and don't bother calling for the ball or tell Ant to get him the damn ball. Right now neither is happening so Rudy clogs the paint and gets frustrated and Ant dances around with the ball.

[thedoper]

I assumed Rudy would be in the dunker spot on offense and be a glorified Vando. Instead Finch has been playing Kat as a pure 4 and Rudy has been taking Kat's role as the Center. I think once we understand how to utilize Rudy's screens this offense is going to fly. There have certainly been moments. Ant's press conference last nigh was pretty interesting. He gets that he needs to lead the way with sharing the ball, whether or not he will do it is another question. But he is pretty self aware at such a young age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrcZ_Idz378&t=325s&ab_channel=MinnesotaTimberwolves

Yeah, he says the right things but multiple times last night he waved off or just ignored Rudy who had his man sealed in the post.

Now, a very fair question to ask is which is better - getting the ball to Rudy in the post or clearing out and letting Ant go to work on a big that switched onto him? Ant thinks he will win his matchup every single time, so he doesn't pass it. I can actually accept either direction we go on this. But either Finch needs to just tell Rudy to vacate the paint in those situations and don't bother calling for the ball or tell Ant to get him the damn ball. Right now neither is happening so Rudy clogs the paint and gets frustrated and Ant dances around with the ball.

I think that is the gist of the puzzle. Getting Ant and Rudy to trust eachother and the respective matchups. Finch's strategy seems so free flowing that it feels like it will be incumbent on the players to work it out. I think Ant trusting Rudy more will unlock more of his game too. But there are definitely times when people do need to just clear out for Ant and let him cook. We finally have a player who can do it which is still shocking to me as a lifelong wolves fan. The closest thing before Ant was JR Rider. Cassel a bit too but he was old.

[Coolbreeze44]

I assumed Rudy would be in the dunker spot on offense and be a glorified Vando. Instead Finch has been playing Kat as a pure 4 and Rudy has been taking Kat's role as the Center. I think once we understand how to utilize Rudy's screens this offense is going to fly. There have certainly been moments. Ant's press conference last nigh was pretty interesting. He gets that he needs to lead the way with sharing the ball, whether or not he will do it is another question. But he is pretty self aware at such a young age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrcZ_Idz378&t=325s&ab_channel=MinnesotaTimberwolves

Yeah, he says the right things but multiple times last night he waved off or just ignored Rudy who had his man sealed in the post.

Now, a very fair question to ask is which is better - getting the ball to Rudy in the post or clearing out and letting Ant go to work on a big that switched onto him? Ant thinks he will win his matchup every single time, so he doesn't pass it. I can actually accept either direction we go on this. But either Finch needs to just tell Rudy to vacate the paint in those situations and don't bother calling for the ball or tell Ant to get him the damn ball. Right now neither is happening so Rudy clogs the paint and gets frustrated and Ant dances around with the ball.

Rudy shoots better at the rim than Ant does, and it's easier to get him attempts. But Ant will probably convert more threes with a big on him than a small. It's probably sixes when analyzing this. But we traded half a roster to get Gobert here, I certainly wouldn't tell him to vacate the paint very often. He should probably play most of the minutes when Ant sits.