Early Season Observations; Checking-In
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:16 pm
- For the most part, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert have been as good as expected. Towns remains one of the most efficient volume scorers in the league while adding more to his bag and Gobert has held up his end as an elite rebounder and defensive presence in the middle. Lineups involving Towns have been very good offensively and lineups involving Gobert have been very good defensively. That is not by accident. It's simply a fact. The two of them have also developed some promising chemistry as a frontcourt duo, evident by the connection Towns has shown in finding Gobert for easy buckets, although there are definitely still issues to smooth out on both ends of the floor. Make no mistake about it, though. They're doing their part.
- Anthony Edwards' and Jaden McDaniels' development has largely stagnated or regressed to begin the year, and it's the single-most-disappointing development of the early season, in my opinion.
- While Edwards has shown an uptick in defensive prowess when given a worthy assignment (guarding Devin Booker, for example), he too often displays his low basketball IQ, inconsistent effort, and ball-hog mentality. He's been a complete non-factor offensively when he doesn't have the ball, and routinely gets beat by inferior players defensively in large part because he just doesn't respect the matchup enough. And for all the talk about ball movement, or lack thereof, Edwards is by far the biggest offender in this regard. He's more like Carmelo Anthony than James Harden, for example. He needs to figure out how to be more of a playmaker than just an isolation scorer, and that also means finding a way to be involved/impactful when he doesn't have the basketball. Still he's just 21-years old and ultra-gifted. He could explode at any moment into the superstar he's expected to become based on physical ability. However, the early signs indicate that it won't be happening this season, and it's more mental than anything.
- McDaniels continues to be who he's been since his rookie season. He's a legitimately good wing defender and weak side rim-protector who struggles to stay out of foul trouble and makes little to no impact offensively most nights. His perimeter shot continues to escape him and he provides zero help on the glass despite his elite length for position. This organization determined that keeping him was worth more than draft capital when considering the Rudy Gobert trade. So far, that gamble does not look like a good one. I remain truly hopeful, but McDaniels does not look like a near-untouchable prospect or young player -- far from it. The Timberwolves need a lot more from him if he's going to remain in the starting lineup, and I'm not entirely sold that he will. This is also alarming considering he's their best available trade chip despite appearing like a depreciating asset. Frankly, Minnesota needs him to step up. On the potential bright side, if there even is one, it's looking like McDaniels won't have the Mikal Bridges-esque season many hoped for, which could mean a more team-friendly extension for him after this season.
- D'Angelo Russell is far from THE problem with the Timberwolves -- like many fans here and on other platforms have claimed -- but he's definitely been a part of the disappointing start, no doubt about it. The cold spells he goes through are irritating, and his box score stats have left a lot to be desired. It's a make or miss league, and he's missed a lot more than he's made so far. However, there are two things to note here. Firstly, Minnesota still ranks near the bottom of the league in pick-and-roll possessions despite having two quality ball-handlers in this action (Russell and Jaylen Nowell) and two elite roll-men in Towns and Gobert. This despite the countless mentions from Minnesota's leadership (Tim Connelly and Chris Finch) of wanting to bring out the best in Russell by pairing him with an elite screen setter in Gobert. So far, Finch has failed miserably in this regard (as well as others) as he continues to try and implement structureless, free-flowing offensive concepts that just don't fit the personnel. This group desperately needs simplicity and structure in the form of set plays/actions, and to be told where they should be on the floor. Russell's poor shooting early on should absolutely be criticized, but Finch continues to force him to play against his strengths. That makes no sense to me, especially after Finch made the same observation after the Grizzlies series. Secondly, we saw Russell struggle out of the gate last season shooting the basketball, for whatever reason, and by late November and early December he picked it up significantly until hitting another skid in mid-March. We know he's streaky, but he's been far more good than bad, statistically, in Minnesota and that needs to be remembered. We could argue about what that is worth from a salary-perspective, but not what his impact has been since he arrived in Minnesota in totality. I think we need to ride this out before making any drastic changes there, but we need more from Russell.
- The bench has largely been great thus far, which should provide optimism moving forward. Simply, Minnesota's second unit has routinely outperformed the opposing second units that they've played. This advantage as it pertains to their depth is one that the Timberwolves have not had in quite some time. We've gone through years and years of strong starting fives with reserves that would give back the lead or fail to chip away at the opponent's. That's not the case this season. Naz Reid and Taurean Prince have been excellent while Kyle Anderson and Jordan McLaughlin have been steady-yet-very-limited contributors. Nowell has been a mixed bag to this point, but there have been a number of games where his play has been a big boost to the team. In short, they've been solid collectively and if that continues to be the case, then Minnesota should be just fine this season as they work out the kinks.
- Patience is required with this team. Take a breath. Try to relax. I think many here, including myself, thought the transition would be easier than it's been to this point. The expectations are/were so high that they've become an anchor for this squad in a negative way. They're pressing as a team and it's evident almost every game. They're not just figuring out how to implement new personnel in Gobert and Anderson, but they're also playing a completely different style of basketball with multiple scheme changes and some roles that are very different now than they were last season. That is going to take time to iron out -- more than we wanted to admit before the season. In time, I think they will figure it out and become a very good team, but the learning process is steeper than previously expected.
- Perimeter shooting and trust in one another has been an early killer for this team. Almost everyone on the roster besides Prince has been shooting below their expected levels. Sound familiar to last season? That's led to some horrific shooting nights as a team from the perimeter in which the Timberwolves have been crushed in three-point shooting margin. It's very difficult to win in today's league when you can't make those outside shots. I don't expect those shooting woes to continue, thankfully, but that's been a big issue as a team so far. They also need to trust in the defensive scheme as well as one another. That has not fully happened yet. Players are over-helping, over-committing, and failing to play as a unit, which in turn also leaves shooters open. They especially need to rely on Gobert to man the middle when he's on the floor and stay glued to their assignment around the perimeter. Utah was elite in recent history, at least in the regular season, because they aggressively contested perimeter shots and funneled ball-handlers into Gobert and trusted that he would protect the paint. Minnesota just isn't doing that like they should and they've been eaten up from the perimeter as a result. Offensively, they need more structure, more ball and player movement, and to make the shots they're expected to make.
- I still see this roster as a potential contender in time, but they've not made it easy on themselves through the first quarter of the season. There are valid reasons for optimism and valid causes for concern, admittedly, but the latter seem quite correctable as the schedule continues and they gain more familiarity. I didn't jump ship at last year's poor start and I'm not doing so this season either with a more talented group.
Lastly, I do not know what the board's atmosphere has been like so far this young season, but I can only imagine it became an echo chamber of panic, frustration, and negativity -- some of which is understandable -- but I personally wanted to avoid that for the sake of everyone involved. I'll probably share more thoughts in another 15-20 games or so and I hope that some or most of what I highlighted above has corrected itself. I trust the talent currently on this roster and the leadership in place... for now.
- Anthony Edwards' and Jaden McDaniels' development has largely stagnated or regressed to begin the year, and it's the single-most-disappointing development of the early season, in my opinion.
- While Edwards has shown an uptick in defensive prowess when given a worthy assignment (guarding Devin Booker, for example), he too often displays his low basketball IQ, inconsistent effort, and ball-hog mentality. He's been a complete non-factor offensively when he doesn't have the ball, and routinely gets beat by inferior players defensively in large part because he just doesn't respect the matchup enough. And for all the talk about ball movement, or lack thereof, Edwards is by far the biggest offender in this regard. He's more like Carmelo Anthony than James Harden, for example. He needs to figure out how to be more of a playmaker than just an isolation scorer, and that also means finding a way to be involved/impactful when he doesn't have the basketball. Still he's just 21-years old and ultra-gifted. He could explode at any moment into the superstar he's expected to become based on physical ability. However, the early signs indicate that it won't be happening this season, and it's more mental than anything.
- McDaniels continues to be who he's been since his rookie season. He's a legitimately good wing defender and weak side rim-protector who struggles to stay out of foul trouble and makes little to no impact offensively most nights. His perimeter shot continues to escape him and he provides zero help on the glass despite his elite length for position. This organization determined that keeping him was worth more than draft capital when considering the Rudy Gobert trade. So far, that gamble does not look like a good one. I remain truly hopeful, but McDaniels does not look like a near-untouchable prospect or young player -- far from it. The Timberwolves need a lot more from him if he's going to remain in the starting lineup, and I'm not entirely sold that he will. This is also alarming considering he's their best available trade chip despite appearing like a depreciating asset. Frankly, Minnesota needs him to step up. On the potential bright side, if there even is one, it's looking like McDaniels won't have the Mikal Bridges-esque season many hoped for, which could mean a more team-friendly extension for him after this season.
- D'Angelo Russell is far from THE problem with the Timberwolves -- like many fans here and on other platforms have claimed -- but he's definitely been a part of the disappointing start, no doubt about it. The cold spells he goes through are irritating, and his box score stats have left a lot to be desired. It's a make or miss league, and he's missed a lot more than he's made so far. However, there are two things to note here. Firstly, Minnesota still ranks near the bottom of the league in pick-and-roll possessions despite having two quality ball-handlers in this action (Russell and Jaylen Nowell) and two elite roll-men in Towns and Gobert. This despite the countless mentions from Minnesota's leadership (Tim Connelly and Chris Finch) of wanting to bring out the best in Russell by pairing him with an elite screen setter in Gobert. So far, Finch has failed miserably in this regard (as well as others) as he continues to try and implement structureless, free-flowing offensive concepts that just don't fit the personnel. This group desperately needs simplicity and structure in the form of set plays/actions, and to be told where they should be on the floor. Russell's poor shooting early on should absolutely be criticized, but Finch continues to force him to play against his strengths. That makes no sense to me, especially after Finch made the same observation after the Grizzlies series. Secondly, we saw Russell struggle out of the gate last season shooting the basketball, for whatever reason, and by late November and early December he picked it up significantly until hitting another skid in mid-March. We know he's streaky, but he's been far more good than bad, statistically, in Minnesota and that needs to be remembered. We could argue about what that is worth from a salary-perspective, but not what his impact has been since he arrived in Minnesota in totality. I think we need to ride this out before making any drastic changes there, but we need more from Russell.
- The bench has largely been great thus far, which should provide optimism moving forward. Simply, Minnesota's second unit has routinely outperformed the opposing second units that they've played. This advantage as it pertains to their depth is one that the Timberwolves have not had in quite some time. We've gone through years and years of strong starting fives with reserves that would give back the lead or fail to chip away at the opponent's. That's not the case this season. Naz Reid and Taurean Prince have been excellent while Kyle Anderson and Jordan McLaughlin have been steady-yet-very-limited contributors. Nowell has been a mixed bag to this point, but there have been a number of games where his play has been a big boost to the team. In short, they've been solid collectively and if that continues to be the case, then Minnesota should be just fine this season as they work out the kinks.
- Patience is required with this team. Take a breath. Try to relax. I think many here, including myself, thought the transition would be easier than it's been to this point. The expectations are/were so high that they've become an anchor for this squad in a negative way. They're pressing as a team and it's evident almost every game. They're not just figuring out how to implement new personnel in Gobert and Anderson, but they're also playing a completely different style of basketball with multiple scheme changes and some roles that are very different now than they were last season. That is going to take time to iron out -- more than we wanted to admit before the season. In time, I think they will figure it out and become a very good team, but the learning process is steeper than previously expected.
- Perimeter shooting and trust in one another has been an early killer for this team. Almost everyone on the roster besides Prince has been shooting below their expected levels. Sound familiar to last season? That's led to some horrific shooting nights as a team from the perimeter in which the Timberwolves have been crushed in three-point shooting margin. It's very difficult to win in today's league when you can't make those outside shots. I don't expect those shooting woes to continue, thankfully, but that's been a big issue as a team so far. They also need to trust in the defensive scheme as well as one another. That has not fully happened yet. Players are over-helping, over-committing, and failing to play as a unit, which in turn also leaves shooters open. They especially need to rely on Gobert to man the middle when he's on the floor and stay glued to their assignment around the perimeter. Utah was elite in recent history, at least in the regular season, because they aggressively contested perimeter shots and funneled ball-handlers into Gobert and trusted that he would protect the paint. Minnesota just isn't doing that like they should and they've been eaten up from the perimeter as a result. Offensively, they need more structure, more ball and player movement, and to make the shots they're expected to make.
- I still see this roster as a potential contender in time, but they've not made it easy on themselves through the first quarter of the season. There are valid reasons for optimism and valid causes for concern, admittedly, but the latter seem quite correctable as the schedule continues and they gain more familiarity. I didn't jump ship at last year's poor start and I'm not doing so this season either with a more talented group.
Lastly, I do not know what the board's atmosphere has been like so far this young season, but I can only imagine it became an echo chamber of panic, frustration, and negativity -- some of which is understandable -- but I personally wanted to avoid that for the sake of everyone involved. I'll probably share more thoughts in another 15-20 games or so and I hope that some or most of what I highlighted above has corrected itself. I trust the talent currently on this roster and the leadership in place... for now.
