NBA news is dominated now with speculation on what's going to happen with Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell and Kyrie Irving. Durant has asked to be traded. Irving was initially hinting that he wanted out of Brooklyn only to surprise everyone by signing his one-year extension. Yet, he's still part of the media trade banter. The Jazz are clearly in rebuild mode, so chatter about Donovan Mitchell being on the trading block shouldn't be a surprise.
The first question is whether any or all of these three players will end up being traded before the season starts. I think all three of them will be traded, although I think the chances of Kyrie being traded are less than the other two. The next question is which team will each one likely end up with. That's a more difficult question, but the universe of likely landing spots for all of them is pretty limited.
What's interesting is that almost all the speculation regarding Durant and Donovan involves the Knicks and Heat, although I've seen some reports that Toronto has had talks with the Nets about Durant. It would appear that the Knicks are interested in Donovan Mitchell, not Durant. And apparently the Heat are interested in both. Kyrie's only suitor appears to be the desperate Lakers, although Miami's been discussed as a possible destination for him.
I'll start my comments with Donovan Mitchell. I have no doubt that Donovan Mitchell will end up with the Knicks before the season starts. The only question is how much the Knicks will give up to get him. It would be a travesty if the Knicks gave up fewer future picks than the Wolves gave up for Gobert - unless the Knicks include Barrett in the package. But even then, I'd have a hard time swallowing a package with fewer than 4 future unprotected picks from the Knicks. As I discussed in another thread, the Knicks are loaded with future picks, although some of them from other teams are protected. In any event, the Knicks have a one of 1st and 2nd round picks to include as draft capital in a deal for Donovan. And I don't think the Jazz are particularly interested in Barrett anyway. I think this is classic Danny Ainge. He pushes for something he doesn't really want and never expects to get, but then "settles" for the assets he really wanted all along. That's what I think the McDaniels thing was all about. Danny Ainge was picks. Although I think he was more serious about McDaniels than he is about Barrett, who is an inefficient scorer with only a year left on his contract. Ainge is thinking long term rebuild. So to the extent he wants young players as well as picks he wants players who will be locked up with him for a while. Bottom line is that the Knicks really want to take a huge leap this year after signing Brunson and they see Donovan Mitchell as the final piece to take that big step. I'm sure they envision putting a playoff team on the floor with Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson. I think they'll ultimately give up a lot of future picks because they have a lot of them to give and won't want to part with all their young talent. I'm sure they'd include Quickely and Toppin. While reluctant to include Grimes, I can see them parting with him in the end.
My next thought is about Kevin Durant. First of all, I recognize he's one of the best players in the League. But I can't get over what a flake he is. He just keeps wanting to move on as soon as the going gets tough. When the going gets tough, the tough get going ... and Kevin Durant runs away. How much is a team willing to give up for that? I guess the answer is: a lot. But then consider the fact that he'll be 34 years old when the season starts. Consider also that he's playing on a surgically repaired Achilles. The Nets are apparently demanding a huge haul greater than the Jazz received from the Wolves in the Gobert deal. If it were me, I wouldn't be interested in Durant at anything close to what the Wolves gave up for Gobert. Rudy is a durable 30 year old who is anything but a flake. He's known as a leader and teammate who brings toughness to his team. Nevertheless, I'm sure a team like Miami would love to have Durant given where they're at right now. They came close last season and they're in full win-now mode with Adebayo and Butler. But here's the problem. The Heat just don't have the assets to get either Durant or Donovan Mitchell. They've already traded their 2025 1st-round pick and have no incoming firsts. That means they can only trade up to 3 first-round picks - 2023, 2027 and 2029. They've already traded their future 2nd round picks for every year through 2027. I can't see the Heat trading Bam or Butler for either Durant or Donovan Mitchell and I don't see the Nets having any interest in Butler anyway. The only player package the Heat could realistically offer to provide some measure of talent and salary match would be Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry. Imagine an offer of those two plus three first-round picks. There is absolutely no way they could get either Durant or Donovan Mitchell for those assets. OK, throw in Tyler Herro. The offer still remains in adequate to get the Nets to budge - especially compared to what the Knicks could and likely would offer for Donovan Mitchell. My sense is that there's not chance the Heat get Donovan Mitchell and only a slight chance they can end up with Durant.
As for Kyrie Irving, I guess the Lakers really want him bad. And I could see the Heat eventually settling for him when they finally face the reality that they're not getting Durant or Donovan Mitchell. I still think Kyrie will end up with the Lakers in some sort of deal involving Westbrook. It shouldn't take anything close to a Gobert-type deal to get the mercurial Kyrie (I play when I want to play) Irving. However, I also see a scenario where Irving ends up in Miami. I think Pat Riley would love to combine him with Bam and Butler. And I think Riley has the assets to get Irving without giving up Bam or Butler. Maybe Lowry, Duncan Robinson and Miami's 2023, 2027 and 2029 picks would be enough for the Nets. The Nets could lay the foundation for a rebuild pretty quickly by dealing Durant to the Raptors and Irving to the Heat for multiple picks. Miami only has three to give, but the Raptors have more.