Minnesota Decemberwolves: Next 14 Games
Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:28 pm
Here are the Timberwolves' (11-12) next 14 games to end December with my projected/hopeful outcomes. The asterisk (*) denotes the second game of a back-to-back...
vs. Pacers: W
at Jazz: W
*at Portland: L
at Portland: W
at Los Angeles (Clippers): L
at Oklahoma City: W
vs. Chicago: W
*vs. Dallas: L
vs. Dallas: W
at Boston: L
at Miami: W
at New Orleans: W
at Milwaukee: L
*vs. Detroit: W
That's a potential 9-5 stretch, which would leave Minnesota at 20-17 (.541) entering 2023... I think that's somewhat realistic, and probably even a favorable outcome considering the circumstances without Karl-Anthony Towns. And by that time Towns should be close to getting back on the court.
Could this team just as easily end up going 5-9 over that stretch instead, and find themselves 16-21 entering the new year? Absolutely they could, and none of us would be shocked given what we've seen from this team to this point, but I see some smaller developments that give me reason for optimism even without Minnesota's presumed best player being available.
1. Anthony Edwards is finally getting more trips to the free throw line -- the result of a more concerted effort for him to attack the rim. He's averaging 8.8 free throw attempts over his last four games, which is a far cry from the 4.1 he averaged over the 19 games prior to that. It's a very small sample size, but that's a trend that we need to continue moving forward in order to get a more effective and more efficient Ant. His shot selection will likely never be optimal, but a newfound ability to draw fouls in bunches can (and is) help him -- and the team -- greatly.
2. D'Angelo Russell has been stacking up quality performances as he gets further and further away from his poor start to the season. Frankly, Minnesota needs him to be effective now more than ever with Towns being sidelined. He's averaging 17.2 PPG, 7.8 APG (2.3 TOV), 3.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and 0.5 BPG over his last 10 games on 51.2/34.4/82.6 splits, or a 61.8 TS%. That also comes with a noticeable uptick in his effort/energy defensively, which Minnesota will need if they're going to rely more on their defense with Towns out the next handful of weeks. Who knows how long he can maintain this, and he needs to avoid the frigid cold spells he's fallen victim to before, but the team needs him to be good. Lately, he's been that.
3. Jaden McDaniels and Jaylen Nowell are looking more and more like the players we thought they could be, and this team bet a lot on internal improvement from those two coming into the season. McDaniels put up a stinker in his first game back from illness, but he had been performing at a really high level on both ends almost the entire month of November -- taking on difficult defensive responsibilities, making perimeter shots, and becoming a menace in transition. Nowell may be getting past his gunner mentality and forcing the issue offensively. The last handful of games look much more reminiscent to the player he had been in prior seasons by letting the game come to him and picking his spots to be ultra aggressive. He's also making his three-point shots (12-25 over his last four games) at a high clip after sinking into a bad shooting slump (3-23 over those seven games prior).
To wrap this up, Minnesota needs to handle their business through the rest of December. The schedule is manageable despite going through the rigors of two long road trips -- a five-game trip and a four-game trip. There are a handful of should-be wins that they can't afford to drop like we've already seen them do. They need to, at least, split the back-to-backs with Portland and Dallas as teams typically do. They have to compete and play well in the coin-flip games against Indiana, Chicago, Miami, and New Orleans. And if they were to steal a game against Los Angeles, Boston, or Milwaukee that would be gravy on the top. Those are the games I think they'll miss Towns the most. But they can't afford to do exactly the opposite and accumulate more losses that put them in a deep hole. This stretch is very important for their season outlook, I feel.
vs. Pacers: W
at Jazz: W
*at Portland: L
at Portland: W
at Los Angeles (Clippers): L
at Oklahoma City: W
vs. Chicago: W
*vs. Dallas: L
vs. Dallas: W
at Boston: L
at Miami: W
at New Orleans: W
at Milwaukee: L
*vs. Detroit: W
That's a potential 9-5 stretch, which would leave Minnesota at 20-17 (.541) entering 2023... I think that's somewhat realistic, and probably even a favorable outcome considering the circumstances without Karl-Anthony Towns. And by that time Towns should be close to getting back on the court.
Could this team just as easily end up going 5-9 over that stretch instead, and find themselves 16-21 entering the new year? Absolutely they could, and none of us would be shocked given what we've seen from this team to this point, but I see some smaller developments that give me reason for optimism even without Minnesota's presumed best player being available.
1. Anthony Edwards is finally getting more trips to the free throw line -- the result of a more concerted effort for him to attack the rim. He's averaging 8.8 free throw attempts over his last four games, which is a far cry from the 4.1 he averaged over the 19 games prior to that. It's a very small sample size, but that's a trend that we need to continue moving forward in order to get a more effective and more efficient Ant. His shot selection will likely never be optimal, but a newfound ability to draw fouls in bunches can (and is) help him -- and the team -- greatly.
2. D'Angelo Russell has been stacking up quality performances as he gets further and further away from his poor start to the season. Frankly, Minnesota needs him to be effective now more than ever with Towns being sidelined. He's averaging 17.2 PPG, 7.8 APG (2.3 TOV), 3.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and 0.5 BPG over his last 10 games on 51.2/34.4/82.6 splits, or a 61.8 TS%. That also comes with a noticeable uptick in his effort/energy defensively, which Minnesota will need if they're going to rely more on their defense with Towns out the next handful of weeks. Who knows how long he can maintain this, and he needs to avoid the frigid cold spells he's fallen victim to before, but the team needs him to be good. Lately, he's been that.
3. Jaden McDaniels and Jaylen Nowell are looking more and more like the players we thought they could be, and this team bet a lot on internal improvement from those two coming into the season. McDaniels put up a stinker in his first game back from illness, but he had been performing at a really high level on both ends almost the entire month of November -- taking on difficult defensive responsibilities, making perimeter shots, and becoming a menace in transition. Nowell may be getting past his gunner mentality and forcing the issue offensively. The last handful of games look much more reminiscent to the player he had been in prior seasons by letting the game come to him and picking his spots to be ultra aggressive. He's also making his three-point shots (12-25 over his last four games) at a high clip after sinking into a bad shooting slump (3-23 over those seven games prior).
To wrap this up, Minnesota needs to handle their business through the rest of December. The schedule is manageable despite going through the rigors of two long road trips -- a five-game trip and a four-game trip. There are a handful of should-be wins that they can't afford to drop like we've already seen them do. They need to, at least, split the back-to-backs with Portland and Dallas as teams typically do. They have to compete and play well in the coin-flip games against Indiana, Chicago, Miami, and New Orleans. And if they were to steal a game against Los Angeles, Boston, or Milwaukee that would be gravy on the top. Those are the games I think they'll miss Towns the most. But they can't afford to do exactly the opposite and accumulate more losses that put them in a deep hole. This stretch is very important for their season outlook, I feel.