Minnesota Sports Forum

We're at the 15-game mark which is a good time to start a player rating thread. I will include three stats for our top 10 rotation players in terms of minutes played: Ortg, Drtg, Net rating, and Box Score Plus/Minus:

Ant - 106.2, 104.6, +1.6, -.4
KAT - 107.0, 105.8, +1.3, +5.1
DLO - 104.9, 95.7, +9.2, -.2
PBev - 106.9, 108.0, -1.1, +.6
JadMac - 104.1, 101.1 - +3.0, -5.0
Beasley - 102.5, 111.1, -8.6, -4.4
Vando - 103.5, 103.0, +.5, -1.7
Naz - 92.4, 108.3, -16.0, +2.6
Okogie - 102.6, 92.0, +10.7, -5.4
Prince - 91.6, 102.7, -11.1, -6.8

Some definitions:

- Ortg and Drtg are points scored and points scored by opponent, respectively, per 100 possessions while the player is on the floor.

- Net rating is simply Ortg subtracted by Drtg

- Box Score Plus Minus estimates a player's contribution based only on traditional box score data. It does look at overall team performance too, so it isn't completely removed from the Ortg and Drtg measures, although it gives more "credit" to someone that really produces in the box score even if the team does poorly while he is on the floor.

- Box Score Plus Minus - what is good and what is bad?

10.0 is an all-time season (think peak Jordan or LeBron)
+8.0 is an MVP season (think peak Dirk or peak Shaq)
+6.0 is an all-NBA season
+4.0 is in all-star consideration
+2.0 is a good starter
+0.0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man
-2.0 is a bench player (this is also defined as "replacement level")
Below -2.0 are many end-of-bench players

Here is what we can conclude based on 15 games:

- KAT is still easily our best player, despite being our most frustrating one at times. If we trade him, Gupta needs to demand a huge return.

- While DLO's net rating looks good (which is a refreshing development!), he and Ant absolutely are not playing like they belong in a "big three". They both need to do better to approach or equal KAT's impact on the game.

- Naz Reid....is he good, bad, or just OK? He has the most divergence between his net rating and BPM. Is he part of the problem or does the horrid play of Beasley, Prince, and McLaughlin bring him down as far as how the team performs when he plays?

- JadMac and Okogie are a bit of the opposite of Naz...not good on BPM, but very good on net rating. Again, does the fact they overlap with KAT more than Naz inflate their net ratings a bit and BPM is more of a real indicator of their contribution?

- The fact that someone could stare at this and credibly declare Pat Beverley our second best player so far this year is both a credit to Rosas for getting him and a damning statement about the rest of the roster he's assembled. We need him to be our 5th or 6th best player!

- The numbers here only validate what our eyes have told us: Prince and Beasley have been awful. Let's hope they turn it around.

I referenced similar season results in the GDT, Q. The only numbers that are surprising to me are DLo's and JO's...not that they are positive, but that they are so much better than anyone else on the team. But their positive numbers somewhat meet my eye test, and I and others have mentioned DLo's improved defense often. One stat that doesn't show up in the box scores is deflected passes, and DLo and JO (along with Jaden) are far and away our best in this area this year. Josh is offensively challenged, but he makes up for it by creating chaos on the defensive end every time he is out there. Similarly DLo is struggling with his shot, but he is using his length and smarter defense to create a lot of deflections. I've ripped DLo's defense for a long time, so it's really been a pleasant surprise to see his marked improvement.

On the negative side, I talked about Naz (Revolving Door) Reid in the GDT, so I'm not surprised to see he has the worst DRtg on the team after Malik (Wide Load) Beasley. And it's also not surprising to me that KAT has the best ORtg on the team and Taurean (nice trade, Rosas) Prince has the worst.

Thanks for the summary, Q...tells us a lot about this odd team that we all love!

Edit: the biggest surprise to me is Naz's very bad offensive rating because I think he has looked very good on offense this year. Doesn't meet the eye test at all. And as you pointed out, the disconnect between his terrible net rating and his positive +/- is a statistical anomaly. If I had to venture a guess, he might be the beneficiary of Finch's substitution pattern where he often ends up on the court with DLo, who has been our best on/off guy. Just a guess though.

We definitely need another big who can defend. Naz struggles to defend and rebound his position.

Rebounding is one of the key stats to winning, the Wolves still struggle to outbound the opponents.

FNG wrote:I referenced similar season results in the GDT, Q. The only numbers that are surprising to me are DLo's and JO's...not that they are positive, but that they are so much better than anyone else on the team. But their positive numbers somewhat meet my eye test, and I and others have mentioned DLo's improved defense often. One stat that doesn't show up in the box scores is deflected passes, and DLo and JO (along with Jaden) are far and away our best in this area this year. Josh is offensively challenged, but he makes up for it by creating chaos on the defensive end every time he is out there. Similarly DLo is struggling with his shot, but he is using his length and smarter defense to create a lot of deflections. I've ripped DLo's defense for a long time, so it's really been a pleasant surprise to see his marked improvement.

On the negative side, I talked about Naz (Revolving Door) Reid in the GDT, so I'm not surprised to see he has the worst DRtg on the team after Malik (Wide Load) Beasley. And it's also not surprising to me that KAT has the best ORtg on the team and Taurean (nice trade, Rosas) Prince has the worst.

Thanks for the summary, Q...tells us a lot about this odd team that we all love!

Edit: the biggest surprise to me is Naz's very bad offensive rating because I think he has looked very good on offense this year. Doesn't meet the eye test at all. And as you pointed out, the disconnect between his terrible net rating and his positive +/- is a statistical anomaly. If I had to venture a guess, he might be the beneficiary of Finch's substitution pattern where he often ends up on the court with DLo, who has been our best on/off guy. Just a guess though.

Bigs are supported in the Box plus minus by getting easy boards. You really need to measure big to big rather then comparing them to guards and forwards.

WolvesFan21 wrote:We definitely need another big who can defend. Naz struggles to defend and rebound his position.

Rebounding is one of the key stats to winning, the Wolves still struggle to outbound the opponents.

So true...it was obvious last night how much better we were on defense and the boards with Vando taking Naz's backup minutes at center.

I'm a little confused about this. Based on these numbers, wouldn't DLO be the most valuable player in the league? Or am I misunderstanding the way these ratings are applied? How is his defensive rating so much better than anyone else who gets significant minutes? He may be giving more consistent effort on D, but most of us know he sucks on defense. I'm guessing the sample size isn't large enough yet.

Sample size would suggest NOT to put too much stock in this yet. This is a 15-game sample size and I will update it as we get more chunks of games under our belts. But yes, what it says is that our team defense is really good while DLO has been on the floor. Does that mean he's suddenly become an elite defender? No. Does it mean that through 15 games he isn't single-handedly tanking our defense with poor effort and a carefree attitude? Absolutely. Could he revert to old habits in the future? Of course.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I'm a little confused about this. Based on these numbers, wouldn't DLO be the most valuable player in the league? Or am I misunderstanding the way these ratings are applied? How is his defensive rating so much better than anyone else who gets significant minutes? He may be giving more consistent effort on D, but most of us know he sucks on defense. I'm guessing the sample size isn't large enough yet.

It's likely a combination of three things.

1. D'Angelo Russell didn't play in the first two games against the Clippers -- games in which the Wolves defense was nonexistent. Russell's numbers aren't affected by those duds.

2. Russell's help/off-ball defense has been better than okay thus far; it's been damn good. He's constantly been making quick/accurate rotations while also getting in the passing lanes. From all accounts, the guy has a high basketball IQ and is using it on the defensive end. It's been quite the development.

3. Russell's deficiencies in man defense have been mitigated by matching him up on non-scoring threats or spot-up shooters. This obviously allows him to play to his strengths as a help defender. Furthermore, it's because of the addition of Patrick Beverley and the ascension of Anthony Edwards defensively that allows Russell to take the lesser scoring threat in the backcourt. Those three work well together.

It's fair to say that D-Lo has been a good defender in his role thus far. It's too early to guess whether or not that will continue for the full season, but he deserves a lot of credit for the improved play defensively.