Minnesota Sports Forum

Sitting here several hours after the 2022 February trade deadline, I thought it was time to take stock of where our team is at, including their decision to stand pat at the deadline and where the team is headed for the remainder of this season and beyond.

1. Standing Pat at the Trade Deadline

When the trade deadline passed without a Wolves deal, I'll admit that I felt a bit let down. That seems strange since I was generally against making any major deals that didn't involves Harrison Barnes and I didn't expect a Barnes deal to happen. The trade deadline is a chance to reinvigorate a team and re-engage fans deep in the season when a sense of fatigue and monotony tends to set in. Your head may tell you it's not advisable to make a deal, but your gut wants something to get excited about. That's especially true when you see other deals by other teams that land players you had your eye on and that look like they'll make those teams better. Nevertheless, it's probably a good thing the Wolves passed on any deals - not so much for this season but more so for next season and beyond.

I think there were two types of deals the Wolves could have made leading up to the deadline.

One type would have been a major trade for a starter. That's the sort of trade I wasn't keen on because of how well the team is playing and the great chemistry they have. Beasley or Beverley would of had to be at the center of any such trade and I think there was a really strong case for keeping both players absent a really compelling return. Beverley has been a culture changer, bringing much needed defensive intensity and moxie to what has otherwise been a terrible defensive team with a lot of soft players. Beasley is a true 3-point marksman who, unlike most 3-point specialists, is also a terrific athlete and excellent rebounder for his position. He's struggled with his shot most of the season, but it looks like his stroke is returning. It's likely his shooting will progress to his mean the remainder of this season, which means this was not the time to trade him. It's already been reported that the Wolves could have swapped Beasley for Josh Richardson and either Langford or Nesmith. As much as I value Beasley, that's a deal I would have done because of Richardson's two-way play and the extra value getting a young talent like Nesmith. But I don't have strong feelings about the Wolves decision to pass on that trade. It was reported they were holding out for bigger fish. I suspect those bigger fish were Barnes and Grant, but obviously the price was too high. According to the highly reliable Jon K, the Wolves passed on the big fish deals because they didn't want to give up future 1st round picks. Again, as much as I wanted Barnes, I'm fine with the decision to pass on compromising future assets. Again, it looks like Gupta is playing the long game, and that's appropriate given the current status of the team.

The other type of deal would have been for a rotation player, but not a key player, off the bench to add depth. That sort of deal would of had to involve Layman, future second round picks and possibly Okogie - likely in exchange for a big man. This is the sort of deal I wanted to see the Wolves make. I don't buy that Gupta's hands were tied. And while the luxury tax threshold was a challenge, I have no doubt there were options at the MIT graduate's disposal to make a deal that would have kept the Wolves below the luxury tax line. It could have been Layman and second-round picks for cap space to sign Monroe. Or perhaps Layman, Okogie and 2nd-round picks for Robin Lopez. Instead, I think Gupta and the organization made a decision to keep Layman, Okogie and all of the team's second round picks rather than seek marginal improvement though a minor deal. While I disagree with that decision, I understand and respect it. Again, I think Gupta is playing the long game. After this season, the Wolves will be around $14M under the salary cap and $40 million under the luxury tax, assuming they don't re-sign Okogie. I think the Wolves front office decided to see where this current roster, young and on an upward trajectory, ends up this season without any disruption or additional salary and without losing any of the team's draft assets. This approach allows the front office to fully reflect on what the team needs to take the next step forward and maximizes the assets available to make moves in the off season. That's a perfectly reasonable strategy and you have to admire the discipline of this front office in resisting the temptation to make a move at the deadline.

2. State of the Team

I'd say the state of the team is good right now and I think it would be hard to disagree with that assessment. The Wolves are 3 games over .500 and in 7th place, 2.5 games ahead of the 8th place Clippers and 1.5 games behind the 6th place Nuggets. Before last night's loss to the Kings in a back-to-back road game, the Wolves had won 5 in a row. It's a young team that's had key players miss a lot of games through injury and Covid protocols. But it has persevered and is currently on a pace to finish with a far better record than the vast majority of fans and pundits predicted.

That said, there are a couple somewhat troubling signs. One is that the Wolves remain one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the League. The other is the recent collapse of the Wolves defense. The unexpectedly impressive defense we saw from this team in the first half of the season has almost entirely disappeared. Last night's loss to the Kings was emblematic of the Wolves disappearing defense. I don't know how to explain or account for it, but it's been going on long enough now to be a cause for concern. That's probably why the front office was reportedly interested in Marcus Smart. The good news is that the Wolves offense has come around recently to look like the high octane offense we expected at the beginning of the season. But the Wolves won't capture the 5th or 6th seed and avoid the play-in tournament if their defense continues to resemble last year's defense. And I can easily see the Wolves getting knocked out in the play-in by the Clippers or Lakers.

3. Beyond This Season

So what about next season and beyond? I think a lot of what happens depends on how the Wolves finish this season. If the Wolves defense continues to falter the way it has recently and we see more losses like last night, then this team will struggle to hold onto its 7th position and could find themselves getting ousted in the play-in tournament. In that case, I think we should expect more significant moves in the off-season. However, if they can tighten up the defense a bit and continue to move and score the ball they way they have recently, then I can see this team ending up a 5th or 6th seed and playing competitive ball in the first round of the playoffs. In that case, I see the Wolves front office being less aggressive and more moderate in the changes they pursue.

There's no doubt the Wolves will move forward with KAT and Ant as the immovable core duo to build around. I think they'll remain inclined to keep DLO, McDaniels and Vanderbilt, but be open to moving any or all of them. I don't see the Wolves actively shopping Naz Reid or Nowell. Their contracts are too good and what they've shown this season plus their obvious upside would make the Wolves front office inclined to keep them. I think the Wolves will continue to dangle Beasley as their most valuable trade asset on the current roster. Okogie will be a sign-and-trade asset. Beyond that, the Wolves will have three 2nd-round picks next season and have all their future 1st-round picks. So I could easily see the Wolves makIng a significant trade including Beasley and future picks. But I can also envision the Wolves not making any major deals.

What's intriguing to me is that the Wolves will have around $14 million in cap space and around $40 million in luxury tax space this coming offseason. If they want to bring back Beverley, then they won't have much cap space left. But they'll have plenty of luxury tax space to sign a free agent using the full MLE of around $10 million and another free agent using the full bi-annual exception of around $4 million. And they'd still have room to sign several vet minimum players.

It will be interesting to see what the Wolves do this off season. They'll have money and assets to work with. But most importantly, they have a solid roster to start from. And that's something we haven't been able to say about the Wolves for a long time.

Great analysis Lip. Nice to see you active and re-engaged on this board once again!

I'm pretty neutral on staying pat. The beauty of where we're at right now is that coming into this season anything around .500 ball was to be considered a very big step forward for this franchise. The downside to that is once you get to .500 and (likely) ousted from the playoffs quickly, fans get very impatient if the team spins their wheels at that level. They either want to see a trajectory to perennial 50+ win seasons and some playoff wins OR they get tired of stagnating and yearn for a rebuild to start with some fresh faces and young talent.

I'm going to largely assume that we end up somewhere around .500 and in the play-in tourney. But I don't think this squad can get very far unless the other teams are really banged up. That means this offseason will be really key for us. We have to try to get to that next tier.

Q-was-here wrote:Great analysis Lip. Nice to see you active and re-engaged on this board once again!

I'm pretty neutral on staying pat. The beauty of where we're at right now is that coming into this season anything around .500 ball was to be considered a very big step forward for this franchise. The downside to that is once you get to .500 and (likely) ousted from the playoffs quickly, fans get very impatient if the team spins their wheels at that level. They either want to see a trajectory to perennial 50+ win seasons and some playoff wins OR they get tired of stagnating and yearn for a rebuild to start with some fresh faces and young talent.

I'm going to largely assume that we end up somewhere around .500 and in the play-in tourney. But I don't think this squad can get very far unless the other teams are really banged up. That means this offseason will be really key for us. We have to try to get to that next tier.

I agree Q this offseason will likely mean one where the Wolves need to make a move to take another step. Fortunately they will have a lot more means to do that than say the past offseason. They have Beasley all their draft picks plus a couple 2nd rounders including Washington's and financial flexibility which is significant since they could actually use their full Mid-level and stay under the tax. That doesn't mean they will for sure be able to improve the team but there will be way more avenues to do so that the last couple offseasons. They do still have some ability to improve from within also.

monsterpile wrote:

Q-was-here wrote:Great analysis Lip. Nice to see you active and re-engaged on this board once again!

I'm pretty neutral on staying pat. The beauty of where we're at right now is that coming into this season anything around .500 ball was to be considered a very big step forward for this franchise. The downside to that is once you get to .500 and (likely) ousted from the playoffs quickly, fans get very impatient if the team spins their wheels at that level. They either want to see a trajectory to perennial 50+ win seasons and some playoff wins OR they get tired of stagnating and yearn for a rebuild to start with some fresh faces and young talent.

I'm going to largely assume that we end up somewhere around .500 and in the play-in tourney. But I don't think this squad can get very far unless the other teams are really banged up. That means this offseason will be really key for us. We have to try to get to that next tier.

I agree Q this offseason will likely mean one where the Wolves need to make a move to take another step. Fortunately they will have a lot more means to do that than say the past offseason. They have Beasley all their draft picks plus a couple 2nd rounders including Washington's and financial flexibility which is significant since they could actually use their full Mid-level and stay under the tax. That doesn't mean they will for sure be able to improve the team but there will be way more avenues to do so that the last couple offseasons. They do still have some ability to improve from within also.

Yes. The Wolves will finally have the opportunity to make some meaningful moves to improve the team this off season. And I like your point that there is still room for improvement from within. Given their ages and experience in the League to date, Edwards, McDaniels, Vanderbilt, Nowell, Naz Reid and Bolmaro all have significant upside potential.

Otto Porter Jr. with the full mid-level exception?!? Too early, too early... 8)

Here are some excerpts from Jon K's article today that give us some insight into Gupta's decision to pass on making any trade-deadline deals. I think the first paragraph below (bolded) pretty much says it all. This wasn't an instance where the Wolves front office was unduly constrained by luxury tax concerns or other issues. This was a case of Gupta deciding that there weren't any deals that had a sufficient positive risk-reward ratio over the long term. And it's clear that Gupta is taking the long view. I admire him for his discipline and his willingness to put the team's long-term interests above his own interest in making a short-term splash. Here are the excerpts:

When it came down to it, any deals available to them, in their estimation, would not have increased their odds of jumping up to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference playoff field enough to risk upsetting the equilibrium that has been established through the first 50-plus games of the season.

The closest the Wolves got to making a deal, sources told The Athletic, involved acquiring Montrezl Harrell from Washington. There was much internal debate about how Harrell would fit in with a close-knit group. His activity on the glass would have been helpful to a team that has been one of the worst defensive rebounding teams all season long. But he is only 6 foot 7, doesn't shoot it from outside and isn't known as a particularly strong defender overall, so he wasn't the perfect solution, either. There was a risk in bringing in Harrell, who has been known to wear out his welcome on certain teams. He was teammates with Beverley on the Clippers, which surely would have helped the transition. Harrell is not a lockdown defender, but his energy, toughness and playoff experience would have given him an edge over Naz Reid, an improving young player who gets overwhelmed at times against bigger frontcourts. Despite extensive talks, the deal never came to pass and the Wizards ended up moving Harrell to Charlotte.

"The phones were constantly ringing and our whiteboards are full of trade concepts ingoing and outgoing," Gupta said. "And we just didn't find the right one. Certainly, there was a lot of activity."

There were reports of talks with the Boston Celtics on Marcus Smart, but those never really got close, sources said. And the Celtics' offer of Josh Richardson and Romeo Langford for Malik Beasley did not appeal to the Wolves. Before the last two games, Beasley had caught fire from beyond the arc, hitting 25 3s in a six-game span. The Wolves knew that rate wouldn't be sustained, but the fact that his shooting percentage for the season increased to 36 percent on high volume makes him an important part of the spacing in the second unit and increased his value in trade talks.

There was disappointment in the inability to upgrade because the Wolves are hoping to push into the top six in the conference and avoid the Play-In Tournament. As evidenced by the way the Bulls, who have been near the top of the East all season, were able to turn a tight game into a comfortable victory with a 42-31 fourth quarter, the Wolves are still a notch or two below the true contenders in either conference.

"For sure we were looking for opportunities to upgrade everywhere as we always will," Gupta said. "But just weren't able to find the right opportunity that strikes the balance between helping us now while continuing to hold on to the upside that this roster has and that we have with all the assets available to us as well."

Prince has been playing at such a high level and can play small or power forward, versatility that is essential as part of that second unit. And at 27 years old, and with an even-keeled demeanor that helps balance the hot-blooded[/i]temperaments of guys like Towns, Edwards and Patrick Beverley, Prince is a real asset in the locker room as well. His expiring contract made him a candidate to be moved, but his sticking around will no doubt be welcomed by the rest of the group.

If anyone had the motivation to make a deal, it was Gupta. He is trying to put his stamp on the lead job after being elevated when Gersson Rosas was fired just before training camp. As Rosas's second-in-command, Gupta had a hand in assembling the roster that has gotten the Timberwolves this far, but a move or two at the deadline would have given owners Glen Taylor, Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez something tangible to point to as they evaluate his performance and ability to fill the role for the long term.

Gupta has always viewed trades as an essential part of team building, but he didn't want to give up assets that could jeopardize the team's long-term future to land a player who would only marginally improve their playoff chances in the present. He may not have been ultra-aggressive, but he was not reckless, either.

"I could imagine the perception that I would want to put my stamp on things and make a move just for the sake of it. But that's just not how I operate," Gupta said. "I'm going to operate from a position of what is best for this franchise, not for me."

As fans watched their team succumb in the fourth quarter, the natural reaction was to lament the lack of a move. But looking around the league, it is difficult to pinpoint an opportunity the Wolves missed to significantly impact their chances in the West. Harrell would have been a nice addition, provided he fits in from a personality standpoint as well, but he wasn't exactly what the Wolves needed.

Sabonis may not be the perfect fit next to Towns, but there is no arguing his passing and rebounding would have helped. But the Kings gave up a prized youngster in Tyrese Haliburton and a great shooter in Buddy Hield as part of the package to get him, something the Wolves likely would have been unable to compete with had they jumped into that mix.

They did maintain dialogue with the 76ers in recent weeks, even exploring the option of taking on Tobias Harris as well to incentivize Daryl Morey to deal with them. But as soon as Brooklyn brought James Harden to the table, a long shot became no shot. Myles Turner, a player the Wolves considered earlier in the season, was essentially ruled out after the Pacers traded Sabonis.

Daniel Theis, who went from Houston to Boston, is a grinder but has limitations. The Bucks acquired Serge Ibaka from the Clippers, but how much does he have left in the tank?

"If you have made a trade, presumably you made it because you feel like it helps you, whether now or into the future, and so the fact that we didn't means that we didn't find something that helps us," Gupta said. "So maybe there's some disappointment there. At the same time, we feel really good about this group. We want to give this group time to breathe and time to continue to grow."

Gupta may still look for options in the buyout market, but he said the Wolves would have to wait until March because signing a veteran before then would push the team into the luxury tax.

The Wolves players are taking it as a sign of belief in the current group.

"This is the team that they decided to keep and they trusted in," Beverley said. "It's up to us to go out there and get it done. We have to be better, especially the first unit. We set the tone. We'll be better next game."

I hope Beverley is right!!