Minnesota Sports Forum

I thought I'd start a thread to speculate on who we anticipate will rise and who will fall from where they've been projected leading up to Thursday's draft. Here's my list:

Rising Balloons:

Jalen Williams - He's already been rising the past several weeks from a 2nd-round or very low first-round prospect to a solid 1st-round prospect in the 17-25 range. I think he'll end up a top 14 pick, possibly a top 10.

Dalen Terry -- He's already risen from a pretty obscure 2nd-round prospect to a sure 1st-round selection. His rise seems to have stalled a bit, unlike Jalen's. But I think he'll rise a big more and end up selected in the 15-25 range.

Sinking Stones:

AJ Griffin -- I think he'll end up falling a lot further than any of the current mocks have thus far projected. Questions about his prior injuries and resulting lack of athleticism will haunt him as we get closer to draft day and teams will gravitate to more reliable and exciting prospects. Look for Griffin to fall to the late lottery and possibly out of the lottery by draft night.

Patrick Baldwin -- He's been sinking for a while now so I'm not sure how much further down he can go. But I see him continuing to sink somewhere into the 2nd round. I wouldn't be surprised if he's available when the Wolves are on the clock at #40 in the second round.

Keegan Murray -- He's been consistently listed as a top 5-7 pick in mock drafts for weeks. He's one of the most "solid" prospects projected to get selected in time lottery. But there's nothing spectacular or exciting about him. I just don't see NBA teams using a top 10 picks to take Murray when there will be more exciting, higher-upside alternatives in Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin, Shaedon Sharpe, Ousman Dieng and Jalen Terry available.

Here are my projected top 14 picks:

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Bennedict Mathurin
6. Shaedon Sharpe
7. Dyson Daniels
8. Jalen Williams
9. Jalen Duren
10. Ousman Dieng
11. Johnny Davis
12. Keegan Murray
13. Malaki Branham
14. Ochai Agbaji
15. Mark Williams
16. Dalen Terry
17. Ty Ty Washington
18. AJ Griffin
19. Tari Eason (manna from heaven if he's available here)
20. Jeremy Sochan
21. EJ Liddell
22. Jaylin Williams
23. Wendell Moore
24. Kennedy Chandler
25. Jovic
26. Jaden Hardy
27. Jordan Hall
28. MarJon Beauchamp
29. Kendall Brown
30. Caleb Houston

The guy you have ranked at #27 Jordan Hall would shock me if he went first round. I have assumed he would either be undrafted or be a late second rounder. The Consensus Mock Draft has him at #70 with the earliest mock having him at 44. I'll throw a few darts too of guys that are unlikely to be first round picks, but have the talent to potentially intrigue a team in taking them in the first round: Justin Lewis, Dom Barlow, Andrew Nembhard, Jean Montero and Josh Minott. Jovic has generated a lot of intrigue and all its takes is for one team to love him, so I think he could be taken earlier than most expect, possibly even lottery.

As far as big fallers: I think Kessler who was once projected in the 15-20 area is probably falling into the second round and I wouldn't be shocked if he were available at 40. I heard Shaedon Sharpe could fall. I have also heard Branham and Duren might fall a bit. I think Eason might be in play at 19 due to question marks about his basketball IQ.

Patrick Baldwin, Jalen Hardy, Blake Wesley and Caleb Houstan in addition to Sharpe are tough guys to evaluate since they just don't have the recent stats to justify their lofty rankings and are relying on teams liking their physical profile and projected skills or high school productivity more so than any recent productivity. I really prefer to stay away from these "projects" and whether they go earlier or much later than projected wouldn't be surprising.

lipoli390 wrote:I thought I'd start a thread to speculate on who we anticipate will rise and who will fall from where they've been projected leading up to Thursday's draft. Here's my list:

Rising Balloons:

Jalen Williams - He's already been rising the past several weeks from a 2nd-round or very low first-round prospect to a solid 1st-round prospect in the 17-25 range. I think he'll end up a top 14 pick, possibly a top 10.

Dalen Terry -- He's already risen from a pretty obscure 2nd-round prospect to a sure 1st-round selection. His rise seems to have stalled a bit, unlike Jalen's. But I think he'll rise a big more and end up selected in the 15-25 range.

Sinking Stones:

AJ Griffin -- I think he'll end up falling a lot further than any of the current mocks have thus far projected. Questions about his prior injuries and resulting lack of athleticism will haunt him as we get closer to draft day and teams will gravitate to more reliable and exciting prospects. Look for Griffin to fall to the late lottery and possibly out of the lottery by draft night.

Patrick Baldwin -- He's been sinking for a while now so I'm not sure how much further down he can go. But I see him continuing to sink somewhere into the 2nd round. I wouldn't be surprised if he's available when the Wolves are on the clock at #40 in the second round.

Keegan Murray -- He's been consistently listed as a top 5-7 pick in mock drafts for weeks. He's one of the most "solid" prospects projected to get selected in time lottery. But there's nothing spectacular or exciting about him. I just don't see NBA teams using a top 10 picks to take Murray when there will be more exciting, higher-upside alternatives in Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin, Shaedon Sharpe, Ousman Dieng and Jalen Terry available.

Here are my projected top 14 picks:

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Bennedict Mathurin
6. Shaedon Sharpe
7. Dyson Daniels
8. Jalen Williams
9. Jalen Duren
10. Ousman Dieng
11. Johnny Davis
12. Keegan Murray
13. Malaki Branham
14. Ochai Agbaji
15. Mark Williams
16. Dalen Terry
17. Ty Ty Washington
18. AJ Griffin
19. Tari Eason (manna from heaven if he's available here)
20. Jeremy Sochan
21. EJ Liddell
22. Jaylin Williams
23. Wendell Moore
24. Kennedy Chandler
25. Jovic
26. Jaden Hardy
27. Jordan Hall
28. MarJon Beauchamp
29. Kendall Brown
30. Caleb Houston

I now want absolutely nothing to do with Easton. :)

KG4Ever wrote:The guy you have ranked at #27 Jordan Hall would shock me if he went first round. I have assumed he would either be undrafted or be a late second rounder. The Consensus Mock Draft has him at #70 with the earliest mock having him at 44. I'll throw a few darts too of guys that are unlikely to be first round picks, but have the talent to potentially intrigue a team in taking them in the first round: Justin Lewis, Dom Barlow, Andrew Nembhard, Jean Montero and Josh Minott. Jovic has generated a lot of intrigue and all its takes is for one team to love him, so I think he could be taken earlier than most expect, possibly even lottery.

As far as big fallers: I think Kessler who was once projected in the 15-20 area is probably falling into the second round and I wouldn't be shocked if he were available at 40. I heard Shaedon Sharpe could fall. I have also heard Branham and Duren might fall a bit. I think Eason might be in play at 19 due to question marks about his basketball IQ.

Patrick Baldwin, Jalen Hardy, Blake Wesley and Caleb Houstan in addition to Sharpe are tough guys to evaluate since they just don't have the recent stats to justify their lofty rankings and are relying on teams liking their physical profile and projected skills or high school productivity more so than any recent productivity. I really prefer to stay away from these "projects" and whether they go earlier or much later than projected wouldn't be surprising.

I was definitely throwing some darts with some of they prospects in my mock first round. I agree with your list of first-round darts - Lewis, Barlow, Nembhard, Montero and Minnott. Any one or more of those guys could end up in the first round, but far more likely that all of them, including my guy Jordan Hall, will likely get drafted in the second round or perhaps not get drafted at all.

I should have included Kessler in my sinking stone list. Like you, I've heard that Sharpe is sinking. Apparently, his private workouts have been underwhelming. I hadn't heard about questions regarding Eason's basketball IQ. But there's obviously something that's been dropping him down in most mock drafts. He's another one I should have included in May sinking stone list. He started out as a lottery projection in a lot of mocks and now he could realistically be available to the Wolves at #19. I've been high on him from the beginning, but there are serious questions about his basketball IQ, that would give me pause. Beauchamp is another guys who's been falling.

I think the guy who's going to fall the farthest on draft day is Griffin. I wouldn't be surprised if he's available at #19.