Warming on Lamelo
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:08 am
I apologize if someone else discussed this podcast already, and if you haven't heard it there's a lot of good discussion. I was listening to the Lowe Post podcast today while taking a walk with Mike Schmitz and Jonathan Givony where they were talking about the draft. In the end I decided to take another look at Ball to try to make a fresh perspective, and though I'm still not at all convinced on him I definitely see the intrigue and do see the upside.
Some tidbits:
- I believe it was Givony who said he's confirmed that the Wolves have received plenty of interest in the #1 pick, and mostly for Ball. He said it was more compensation than you would expect in a draft class that is categorized as weak.
-Though he's got a poor 3pt shooting %, they suggested that had a lot to do with the fact that tries to shoot from deep deep too often and that he sometimes wants to play like Trey Young and/or Steph Curry when it comes to shooting.
-He is an excellent rebounder for his position, which makes sense since he's like 6'8"
-Speaking of his height, they suggested that while he's not a good defender at this point, teams won't be able to pick n' roll him like they would a Trey Young to get a size mismatch, so he wouldn't be a liability in that aspect.
-His playmaking is off the charts as we all know from a passing standpoint (and when you watch him, his passing does remind you of a young Ricky Rubio)
-They suggested that while Lonzo lacks confidence at times, LaMelo is supremely confident at all times.
-If I recall, they questioned Ball (could have been Edwards, but I think Ball) always having been in poor basketball team situations that this would give pause as to whether he is a guy who could right the ship if things went south. With that said, they also suggested that this would make him a better candidate for a team like Minnesota who has other stars vs a team like Charlotte where he would be the guy who would have to put them on his shoulders.
A couple more notes:
-Anthony Edwards explosion numbers were through the roof (most explosive/powerful jumper that was ever tested...at whatever the testing site was).
-Anthony Edwards has undeniable talent that few have when he's engaged, but he's often not engaged and there are few players who have that type of effort profile and find it at the NBA level, it's either something you have or don't have. They suggested that in even in interview sessions he can be super engaged and interesting/funny, while others he is mentally absent. Schmitz likes Edwards, while Givony thinks he's talented but doesn't think he'll match his ceiling. Apparently one NBA personnel basically called him Dion Waiters.
-They also stated that next year's draft is super stacked (we knew that) and has about 7-8 guys who could legitimately be in the running for the #1 pick and could be stars. Said the Wolves are definitely looking to win now so they don't give up the valuable pick but if they're going to be bad, they better be real bad (due to the top 4 protection on our pick next year going to the Warriors).
Afterward, I watched a number of videos (high school breakdowns, Australian league, interview, etc) and here are my takeaways:
-Until the last couple years, he was a shoot-first player who could pass. He's shifted into a pass first player who is also very willing to shoot.
-It's very difficult to find tape of his defense, but the HS breakdown I saw showed how he went from literally zero effort (often not even making it past halfcourt) on defense to being engaged at times and improving quite a bit, though he still needs more effort (on ball) and still needs to learn to play defense with his feet more and less reliance on his hands.
-His passing will get our 3 point shooters open, and will get freebie layups for our inside guys.
-His shooting (specifically outside shooting) form still needs work. He doesn't get a ton of elevation (which may be fine due to his size) and loves the step back 3 but his form turns it into a fadeaway. He needs someone to work with him on this to get out of bad habits.
-His turnover rate is improving
-He has done a lot of improvement over the last 3 years.
-His FT% is in the low 70%. Not great, but not terrible for his age either. Given that he actually does have NBA range on his shot, it makes me believe that there's a real shot he becomes an average NBA shooter in time, which would make him super dangerous offensively.
I still want Wiseman #1, but if we do go Ball, I'll be alright, and I believe he will make KAT even more dangerous than he already is, much the way Rubio did. I expect Ball to become a more dangerous offensive player than both Rubio and Simmons, but never be as good as either defensively. The #1 translatable advanced stat to winning in the NBA is offensive efficiency, with #2 being defensive efficiency. Can he improve in these categories enough to help the Wolves become a winner? Not sure, but I guess at least if we do take him we'll have an entertaining team again.
Some tidbits:
- I believe it was Givony who said he's confirmed that the Wolves have received plenty of interest in the #1 pick, and mostly for Ball. He said it was more compensation than you would expect in a draft class that is categorized as weak.
-Though he's got a poor 3pt shooting %, they suggested that had a lot to do with the fact that tries to shoot from deep deep too often and that he sometimes wants to play like Trey Young and/or Steph Curry when it comes to shooting.
-He is an excellent rebounder for his position, which makes sense since he's like 6'8"
-Speaking of his height, they suggested that while he's not a good defender at this point, teams won't be able to pick n' roll him like they would a Trey Young to get a size mismatch, so he wouldn't be a liability in that aspect.
-His playmaking is off the charts as we all know from a passing standpoint (and when you watch him, his passing does remind you of a young Ricky Rubio)
-They suggested that while Lonzo lacks confidence at times, LaMelo is supremely confident at all times.
-If I recall, they questioned Ball (could have been Edwards, but I think Ball) always having been in poor basketball team situations that this would give pause as to whether he is a guy who could right the ship if things went south. With that said, they also suggested that this would make him a better candidate for a team like Minnesota who has other stars vs a team like Charlotte where he would be the guy who would have to put them on his shoulders.
A couple more notes:
-Anthony Edwards explosion numbers were through the roof (most explosive/powerful jumper that was ever tested...at whatever the testing site was).
-Anthony Edwards has undeniable talent that few have when he's engaged, but he's often not engaged and there are few players who have that type of effort profile and find it at the NBA level, it's either something you have or don't have. They suggested that in even in interview sessions he can be super engaged and interesting/funny, while others he is mentally absent. Schmitz likes Edwards, while Givony thinks he's talented but doesn't think he'll match his ceiling. Apparently one NBA personnel basically called him Dion Waiters.
-They also stated that next year's draft is super stacked (we knew that) and has about 7-8 guys who could legitimately be in the running for the #1 pick and could be stars. Said the Wolves are definitely looking to win now so they don't give up the valuable pick but if they're going to be bad, they better be real bad (due to the top 4 protection on our pick next year going to the Warriors).
Afterward, I watched a number of videos (high school breakdowns, Australian league, interview, etc) and here are my takeaways:
-Until the last couple years, he was a shoot-first player who could pass. He's shifted into a pass first player who is also very willing to shoot.
-It's very difficult to find tape of his defense, but the HS breakdown I saw showed how he went from literally zero effort (often not even making it past halfcourt) on defense to being engaged at times and improving quite a bit, though he still needs more effort (on ball) and still needs to learn to play defense with his feet more and less reliance on his hands.
-His passing will get our 3 point shooters open, and will get freebie layups for our inside guys.
-His shooting (specifically outside shooting) form still needs work. He doesn't get a ton of elevation (which may be fine due to his size) and loves the step back 3 but his form turns it into a fadeaway. He needs someone to work with him on this to get out of bad habits.
-His turnover rate is improving
-He has done a lot of improvement over the last 3 years.
-His FT% is in the low 70%. Not great, but not terrible for his age either. Given that he actually does have NBA range on his shot, it makes me believe that there's a real shot he becomes an average NBA shooter in time, which would make him super dangerous offensively.
I still want Wiseman #1, but if we do go Ball, I'll be alright, and I believe he will make KAT even more dangerous than he already is, much the way Rubio did. I expect Ball to become a more dangerous offensive player than both Rubio and Simmons, but never be as good as either defensively. The #1 translatable advanced stat to winning in the NBA is offensive efficiency, with #2 being defensive efficiency. Can he improve in these categories enough to help the Wolves become a winner? Not sure, but I guess at least if we do take him we'll have an entertaining team again.