Minnesota Sports Forum

Thought I would do a quick breakdown of the season so far now that we are 25 games in and just under a third of the season complete and talk about some really tough choices the Wolves are going to need to make in these next 2 years.

So the Wolves are currently 11-14, currently the 9 seed so a home 1st round game in the play-in tournament and 2 games out of the 6th seed and a half of game up on not making the play-in at all. I can't believe I am saying this again but the Wolves are currently 11-8 when Dlo and Kat finish the game and 0-6 when one does not play or in case of one game the Wolves blew a halftime lead to the magic when Dlo got hurt just before half. I would say this is sort of where I would of guessed the Wolves would be at, at this part of the season. It is sort of pathetic though that the Wolves can't win a game when Kat or Dlo don't play. The Wolves are 24-19 in their career when Dlo and Kat play together. That is a actually a decent sample size and that duo has been successful. The Question is though can they ever keep healthy. I do not know.

The thing that worries me is the questions the Wolves need to start asking themselves going into the rest of the year and into the next 2 offseasons.

1) What is the Kat solution?: I think Kat is a really good basketball player, I no longer consider him a franchise changer and I am sort of sick of watching Kat play basketball but he is still by far the Wolves best player. If the Wolves don't make the actual playoffs (not just the play-in), will Kat want out? Should we just trade Kat? Also do we want to actually pay Kat the supermax for a guy who would have only 1 playoff appearance (Obviously not all his fault).

2) The Dlo extension question?: So Dlo this offseason will be up for an extension. Now what do we do, he'll want it. Wolves have been incapable of winning when Dlo has not played throughout his tenure with the Wolves. I think Dlo is having his 2nd best year as a pro but it worries me that he is having his best years in contract years. Also if you let Dlo go how do you replace his production? How will Kat react? Do we even need to care about Dlo? Just some questions to ask because Dlo is helping winning this year and when our 2 max players play the Wolves are good but do we want to invest long term to the Dlo/Kat/Ant trio and if not how do we maximize Ant going forward.

3) Naz is about to get paid and what do we do about it?: Naz has one year after this on his excellent team friendly contract. Naz has improved every year and I actually think he is one of the best offensive Centers in the NBA. He will get paid at least 10+ million a year. So do the Wolves want to pay a guy who is a backup to the Wolves most talented player in Kat. Naz lineup numbers throughout his career have been awful and the Wolves have really struggled defensively thourghout Naz career when he is on the court. So do the Wolves want to use salary cap on a very good backup center from a home grown talent? We will see.

4) What do we do with the Vets?: Beverly, Prince are expiring's and Beasley will be an expiring after next year. I think the Wolves will let Prince walk. What will it cost to bring back a culture changer in Beverley but he consistently can't stay on the court and is just getting older. Also what is the plan for Beasley, he is hitting his 3s a lot better now after getting that jail rust off. What is Beasley worth on the trade market? Do we want to pay a guy who legit only above average skill set is 3s? But if they get rid of him that eliminates our only other great 3 point shooter. Will be interesting to see with Beasley.

5) Can a young guy step up please?: Mcdaniels has taken a pretty big step back this year what is super frustrating, Bolmoro is a pest on D but offensively still has a ways to go. Jmac legit sucks but he is on contract for at least another year. Looks like the Wolves have 0 plans for Nowell. I really hope this is the last year the Wolves have to pay Okogie to play basketball. What if any of these guys will step up and help move forward the direction of this franchise?

In the end the Wolves are in a really tough spot. The Wolves are about to be in real cap hell in 2 year with a Kat supermax, Dlo extension, Ant max contract, Naz going to get paid, decisions on guys like Beasley, Bev, Prince, possible 2nd deals to Mcdaniels. Or do the Wolves start over and just build around Ant. In my opinion right now, Ant is an elite HR hitter. He can change the game in a second and is a super exciting prospect but when/can and become more than a HR hitter and can he be consistent and become a better playmaker to help the Wolves win on a large scale because right now Ant strikes out a lot (What is completely fine) and at the end of the day Stars win in the NBA and we have to pray Ant becomes that.

1. In theory they should trade him, but then the goal then is that the basketball gods made a version of KAT who plays defense that somehow this team can get their hands on. Gupta the capologist may not wanna give KAT an extension, but Gupta the scout might not know how to replace him. This is the big dilemma.

2. Regardless of how D'Lo performs, he's gone in two years. Why? His ideal role on a good team is a 6th man who can close games out in the 4th. He'll have to accept that role elsewhere but he won't do that here. As a result, KAT's feelings shouldn't matter in regards to D'Lo's situation here. They have 1+ years to make something of this partnership, and given the huge need PG is and will become, they may have to address the PG of the future in next year's draft (Jean Montero!!!)

3. Naz has played himself up to hopefully be worth a protected first in a trade, which is a good use of his value. With that said, the moment someone offers that, you trade him, because while he's become a very solid backup center, it's not as if we have a team that can get away with Naz somehow replacing KAT. How about Naz to New Orleans for the 2024 Lakers' first rounder? Worst case? Settle for a couple of high 2's and replace Naz that way.
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4. Prince can walk. If Beverley wants to stay at a lower number he can but this team realistically may need to seek out a new crop of vets (the FA class sucks, so they may have to settle for Elfrid Payton or Frank Ntilikina at the veteran minimum--- while that's happening, hopefully McKinley Wright gets a crack at being the primary backup PG)

Beasley is gonna be used in any real trade we have. Okogie shoulda been off the team by now.

5. This is why #1 is also a big dilemma. Player development here has sucked. If it's not Iowa or Summer League these prospects haven't given this team much.

Lastly, Ant might not be good enough... scratch that... Ant IS NOT good enough to build an entire team around him. He's not Giannis. He's not LeBron. He's not Steph. He's not KD. You have to pair Ant with someone else to build a young core. That other guy if it isn't KAT isn't on the roster at all. Ant can't be the only player worth a damn in a rebuild. Not only will it not work, but you risk ultimately pissing him off too. So next year, regardless of result, they gotta get that guy in the draft. Give me Montero and now your backcourt is at least established.

I question the coaching a little at this point. It looks like Finch and the staff worked on defense 90% of the pre-season and left the "offense" alone figuring that the players were talented enough to just play 2 man PNR and go from there. That worked for a while as the team really did have the stats to show they could play D. The offense has been gradually expanding, but how many times will the point guard, whoever it might be, dribble the ball up to the half court stripe and be frantically waving and pointing for player(s) to get in the right spot, then spend 10 more seconds waiting for things to start moving. There is no natural flow and the players do not have the BB IQ to just run the offense from where they are. Needing to start from a spot on the floor is very middle school level IQ.

D'Natagal wrote:I question the coaching a little at this point. It looks like Finch and the staff worked on defense 90% of the pre-season and left the "offense" alone figuring that the players were talented enough to just play 2 man PNR and go from there. That worked for a while as the team really did have the stats to show they could play D. The offense has been gradually expanding, but how many times will the point guard, whoever it might be, dribble the ball up to the half court stripe and be frantically waving and pointing for player(s) to get in the right spot, then spend 10 more seconds waiting for things to start moving. There is no natural flow and the players do not have the BB IQ to just run the offense from where they are. Needing to start from a spot on the floor is very middle school level IQ.

Gotta say... let's assume that's true...

I'm 100% ok with it. This defense has been so bad defensively for so long. And, as Camden has pointed out previously... the Wolves are getting good looks. They're just not making any shots. Last night, Jim Peterson said the Wolves have exactly two players shooting above the league average on three pointers.

- Starting center.
- Backup center.

Only the Wolves.

I was looking at the Jazz last night and nearly everyone on their team are great 3P shooters. Then we roll out Vandy and JO.

But we also should be getting more production from the rest non centers. I think I've seen a little too many highly contested jack ups as well. Especially from guys like Bease.

We're not getting as many good looks as other teams.

What I was disappointed with was the lack of hustle and energy on defense after halftime last night. The Jazz are a great team though, I expected a loss. But seeing them getting blown out is more concerning with the lack of effort and energy.

The defense only works when guys are all in.

One thing I liked watching Utah is that you could see the progressions in its offensive sets. You saw the ball pinging around with a purpose. (1) Look for this, (2) then this and finally (3) this.

It's a system that takes advantage of its talent. It's fun to watch.

The rub for Utah has been when they're playing better teams in the playoffs game after game with more prepping... and they have to add even more stuff and wrinkles.


[Note: I wish I was a betting man. Utah at 52.5 O/U wins seemed like such an easy mark. Then again, I would have thrown those winnings away chasing down a bet on the Indiana over... so maybe I'm fine on the sidelines.]

Good breakdown Kek, nice to see your thoughts laid out extensively here. I'm afraid there are more questions than answers right now!

I think there are two facts that stand out to me:

#1 - KAT, DLO, and Edwards aren't a good enough trio to completely carry a team composed of mostly one-dimensional role players. They just aren't.

#2 - Our role players, with the exception of Patrick Beverley, are almost to the extreme one-dimensional players. And unless they perform to the absolute maximum level of that particular dimension, whether it be shooting, defense, or scoring efficiently - they are a pretty big liability.

As for #2, just look at the difference last night. Joe Ingles and Royce O'Neal - being paid about $25M between the two of them - are just miles and miles and miles better than our equivalent players, i.e. Prince, Okogie, McDaniels, Bolmaro. I mean, it's not even close.

We have done KAT a massive disservice by surrounding him with shitty, poorly developed talent. He's Dirk, not Hakeem or Embiid or Jokic. He needs a lot of help because he's clearly not capable of totally carrying a team of try-hard types.

Q12543 wrote:

We have done KAT a massive disservice by surrounding him with shitty, poorly developed talent. He's Dirk, not Hakeem or Embiid or Jokic. He needs a lot of help because he's clearly not capable of totally carrying a team of try-hard types.

...
We have done [Kevin Love] a massive disservice by surrounding him with shitty, poorly developed talent. He's Dirk, not Hakeem or Embiid or Jokic. He needs a lot of help because he's clearly not capable of totally carrying a team of try-hard types.

...
We have done [Kevin Garnett] a massive disservice by surrounding him with shitty, poorly developed talent. He's Dirk, not Hakeem or Embiid or Jokic. He needs a lot of help because he's clearly not capable of totally carrying a team of try-hard types.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

We have done KAT a massive disservice by surrounding him with shitty, poorly developed talent. He's Dirk, not Hakeem or Embiid or Jokic. He needs a lot of help because he's clearly not capable of totally carrying a team of try-hard types.

...
We have done [Kevin Love] a massive disservice by surrounding him with shitty, poorly developed talent. He's Dirk, not Hakeem or Embiid or Jokic. He needs a lot of help because he's clearly not capable of totally carrying a team of try-hard types.

...
We have done [Kevin Garnett] a massive disservice by surrounding him with shitty, poorly developed talent. He's Dirk, not Hakeem or Embiid or Jokic. He needs a lot of help because he's clearly not capable of totally carrying a team of try-hard types.

Exactly. While another lackluster season may lead to the inevitable trade of KAT, he's obviously not the main culprit, as sick as we might be with his antics and drama. He's demonstrably a top 15-20 NBA player and worth every penny of his contract. This will be yet another example of where our front office regimes (no matter who is running the show) fails its best player.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:One thing I liked watching Utah is that you could see the progressions in its offensive sets. You saw the ball pinging around with a purpose. (1) Look for this, (2) then this and finally (3) this.

It's a system that takes advantage of its talent. It's fun to watch.

The rub for Utah has been when they're playing better teams in the playoffs game after game with more prepping... and they have to add even more stuff and wrinkles.


[Note: I wish I was a betting man. Utah at 52.5 O/U wins seemed like such an easy mark. Then again, I would have thrown those winnings away chasing down a bet on the Indiana over... so maybe I'm fine on the sidelines.]

Yeah, they are fun to watch, aren't they? And I'm actually enjoying watching the Wolves a lot this season also, even though their offensive style of play is, well, offensive to me. But I get a kick out of the intensity of PatBev, Vando, JO and Ant (some of the time). But the contrast in ball movement was on display last night. Moving on one side of the court, sticky on the other. I know Finch keeps preaching ball movement...our players are either stupid, or just not very good at it.

The other thing on display last night was the contrast in center screening. Gobert's effective screening is a major factor in how many open looks Utah gets (and we were fortunate Utah missed so many open threes in the second and third quarters...otherwise they might have put up 150 on us). KAT should be forced to watch 10 hours of video of Gobert screening before the next game. It seems like such a simple thing to do. I'd hate to think the reason KAT sucks at screening is because a good screen doesn't show up in the box score.