Continuing Roster Imbalance - Not Sustainable
Posted: Sat Oct 09, 2021 12:08 pm
The Wolves had three glaring issues heading into this past offseason that needed to be addressed through player personnel moves: (1) defense, (2) three-point shooting, and (3) rebounding/size. We all saw last season that this team needed to substantially improve its defense. But we also needed to improve our 3-point shooting given how much the team's offensive system depends on it. Perhaps the most glaring need of all was improvement in rebounding and that need relates to this team's obvious lack of size - a roster imbalance.
To date, I'd say the Wolves front office has done a nice job addressing the first two needs. They improved the team's defense and 3-point shooting through the trade that landed Patrick Beverley in Minnesota. That one move significantly addressed two of our three main areas of need. The addition of Prince also improves the Wolves 3-point shooting and possibly the team's defense as well. From what we've seen from Bolmaro, it looks like his presence on the roster could improve the team's defense.
But unfortunately, the Wolves did nothing this off-season to improve the team's rebounding or address the related lack of size on the roster. In other words, the team's glaring roster imbalance we all talked about last season remains. I suppose it helps that both Edwards and McDaniels have apparently grown an inch or two over the off season. And no doubt both have been in the weight room getting stronger. But their growth and added muscle hasn't fundamentally changed the roster imbalance that still leaves the Wolves undersized and overmatched on the boards. To further illustrate the current roster imbalance, consider the following:
Primary Position:
Two centers on roster (KAT & Reid)
One PF on roster and he's small (Vando)
Three SFs on roster (Jaden, Prince, Layman)
Four SGs on roster (Ant, Okogie, Beasley, Nowell)
Four PGs on roster (DLO, Beverley, JMac, Bolmaro)
Multi Position:
2 centers (KAT & Reid)
4 PFs (Vando, Jaden, Prince, Layman)
6 SFs (Jaden, Prince, Layman, Okogie, Ant, Bolmaro)
7 SGs (Ant, Okogie, Beasley, Nowell, DLO, Beverley, Bolmaro)
5 PGs (DLO, Beverley, JMac, Nowell, Bolmaro)
I've attempted to quantify the number of Wolves players at each position. You might quibble with some of my categorization, but I don't think anyone would fundamentally disagree with the premise that the Wolves current roster is heavily skewed towards the SG position and sorely lacking in true bigs at the C or PF position.
I don't think this roster imbalance is sustainable - not if the Wolves are serious about making the playoffs this season. As I reflect on this imbalance I can't help but think the Wolves will make a trade to address it before the season begins. I think that's especially true now that Gupta has replaced Rosas as the Wolves front office head. Gupta appears to be far more open-minded and flexible than Rosas and I don't think he has as much ego invested in past acquisitions. I still think the Wolves might end up with Simmons, but I don't think it's likely. Instead, I see the Wolves trading for a true big man who can start at C or PF next to Towns. And I see Gupta trading one of our many SGs to make that happen.
Note that we have 4 players on this roster whose primary and best position is SG and another three guys who can easily slot into the SG position - a total of 7. The only question is which one or two of these seven players will Gupta end up trading for a true big? The one thing we know for sure is that it won't be Ant. I also think we can rest assured it won't be Beverley or DLO. I don't see the Wolves moving Okogie either. I would have said that before the last two preseason games because I don't think the front office will make any moves that weaken the team's defense. After watching Okogie these first two preseason games, I'm even more convinced that he won't be moved. I've been high on Nowell since we drafted him and I get the sense that Finch likes him. And he's on a very team-friendly contract. But more importantly, I don't see Nowell bringing much value back in return and that's the main reason I don't see the Wolves trading him before the season. Bolmaro is an intriguing prospect, but right now that's all he is and, therefore, I don't see him as a valuable trade chip.
That leaves Beasley. He's the one SG on this roster with substantial trade value who I could see the Wolves trading before the season starts. He's a true 3-point marksman with speed, athleticism and moxie and he's still only 24 years old. All those qualities make him an attractive trade chip. At the same time, from the Wolves perspective, he's the only SG on a roster overcrowded with SGs who lacks the versatility to play other positions and he doesn't help the team's defense. So I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Wolves will trade Beasley for a big either before the regular season starts or within a week or two thereafter.
The next question is who will the Wolves will get in return for Beasley? To answer that question, we should look to teams with roster imbalances in the other direction - i.e., teams with an oversupply of bigs relative to guards or wings. One team that comes to mind immediately is Indiana. They have at least 4 true bigs on their roster in Sabonis, Turner, Bitadze and rookie Isaiah Jackson. They also have two somewhat smaller players listed as PFs in Oshae Brissett and Kelan Martin. TJ Warren is still recovering from surgery, but he is also listed as a PF. At the same time, they only have four proven quality guards in Brogdon, LeVert, Lamb and Holiday. And LeVert has some health issues, including a stress fracture in his back and a prior bout of kidney cancer. So I can see a Beasley swap for either Turner or Sabonis. I'm not sure Sabonis would be gettable or, if so, what in addition to Beasley it would take to get him. But I do think Myles Turner is gettable in return for Beasley.
What are your thoughts on swapping Beasley for Turner or Sabonis and what are some other teams out their with an oversupply of bigs who might be interested in swapping a quality big for Beasley?
To date, I'd say the Wolves front office has done a nice job addressing the first two needs. They improved the team's defense and 3-point shooting through the trade that landed Patrick Beverley in Minnesota. That one move significantly addressed two of our three main areas of need. The addition of Prince also improves the Wolves 3-point shooting and possibly the team's defense as well. From what we've seen from Bolmaro, it looks like his presence on the roster could improve the team's defense.
But unfortunately, the Wolves did nothing this off-season to improve the team's rebounding or address the related lack of size on the roster. In other words, the team's glaring roster imbalance we all talked about last season remains. I suppose it helps that both Edwards and McDaniels have apparently grown an inch or two over the off season. And no doubt both have been in the weight room getting stronger. But their growth and added muscle hasn't fundamentally changed the roster imbalance that still leaves the Wolves undersized and overmatched on the boards. To further illustrate the current roster imbalance, consider the following:
Primary Position:
Two centers on roster (KAT & Reid)
One PF on roster and he's small (Vando)
Three SFs on roster (Jaden, Prince, Layman)
Four SGs on roster (Ant, Okogie, Beasley, Nowell)
Four PGs on roster (DLO, Beverley, JMac, Bolmaro)
Multi Position:
2 centers (KAT & Reid)
4 PFs (Vando, Jaden, Prince, Layman)
6 SFs (Jaden, Prince, Layman, Okogie, Ant, Bolmaro)
7 SGs (Ant, Okogie, Beasley, Nowell, DLO, Beverley, Bolmaro)
5 PGs (DLO, Beverley, JMac, Nowell, Bolmaro)
I've attempted to quantify the number of Wolves players at each position. You might quibble with some of my categorization, but I don't think anyone would fundamentally disagree with the premise that the Wolves current roster is heavily skewed towards the SG position and sorely lacking in true bigs at the C or PF position.
I don't think this roster imbalance is sustainable - not if the Wolves are serious about making the playoffs this season. As I reflect on this imbalance I can't help but think the Wolves will make a trade to address it before the season begins. I think that's especially true now that Gupta has replaced Rosas as the Wolves front office head. Gupta appears to be far more open-minded and flexible than Rosas and I don't think he has as much ego invested in past acquisitions. I still think the Wolves might end up with Simmons, but I don't think it's likely. Instead, I see the Wolves trading for a true big man who can start at C or PF next to Towns. And I see Gupta trading one of our many SGs to make that happen.
Note that we have 4 players on this roster whose primary and best position is SG and another three guys who can easily slot into the SG position - a total of 7. The only question is which one or two of these seven players will Gupta end up trading for a true big? The one thing we know for sure is that it won't be Ant. I also think we can rest assured it won't be Beverley or DLO. I don't see the Wolves moving Okogie either. I would have said that before the last two preseason games because I don't think the front office will make any moves that weaken the team's defense. After watching Okogie these first two preseason games, I'm even more convinced that he won't be moved. I've been high on Nowell since we drafted him and I get the sense that Finch likes him. And he's on a very team-friendly contract. But more importantly, I don't see Nowell bringing much value back in return and that's the main reason I don't see the Wolves trading him before the season. Bolmaro is an intriguing prospect, but right now that's all he is and, therefore, I don't see him as a valuable trade chip.
That leaves Beasley. He's the one SG on this roster with substantial trade value who I could see the Wolves trading before the season starts. He's a true 3-point marksman with speed, athleticism and moxie and he's still only 24 years old. All those qualities make him an attractive trade chip. At the same time, from the Wolves perspective, he's the only SG on a roster overcrowded with SGs who lacks the versatility to play other positions and he doesn't help the team's defense. So I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Wolves will trade Beasley for a big either before the regular season starts or within a week or two thereafter.
The next question is who will the Wolves will get in return for Beasley? To answer that question, we should look to teams with roster imbalances in the other direction - i.e., teams with an oversupply of bigs relative to guards or wings. One team that comes to mind immediately is Indiana. They have at least 4 true bigs on their roster in Sabonis, Turner, Bitadze and rookie Isaiah Jackson. They also have two somewhat smaller players listed as PFs in Oshae Brissett and Kelan Martin. TJ Warren is still recovering from surgery, but he is also listed as a PF. At the same time, they only have four proven quality guards in Brogdon, LeVert, Lamb and Holiday. And LeVert has some health issues, including a stress fracture in his back and a prior bout of kidney cancer. So I can see a Beasley swap for either Turner or Sabonis. I'm not sure Sabonis would be gettable or, if so, what in addition to Beasley it would take to get him. But I do think Myles Turner is gettable in return for Beasley.
What are your thoughts on swapping Beasley for Turner or Sabonis and what are some other teams out their with an oversupply of bigs who might be interested in swapping a quality big for Beasley?