Minnesota Sports Forum

The Wolves are off to their best start in many years and appear to be on track for a return to the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

What's interesting is that none of our three core players (Wiggins, KAT or Butler) is playing significantly better than they have in prior seasons. Wiggins is averaging slightly more rebounds (4.7) than his career average (4.1) with slightly higher FG and 3-pt percentages and slightly fewer assists, but those differences are all tiny. My eye-test tells me Andrew is playing better defense and getting his hands on more loose balls. KAT's stats are almost identical to last year's in every category except for a slightly lower 3-pt percentage, which is likely to increase over the course of the season. The eye-test reveals many of the same defensive lapses we've seen from KAT the prior two seasons, although he appears to have improved defensively the past few games. I'm a bit disappointed that neither Wiggins nor KAT has yet taken a big leap from last season, but it's early.

Butler's stats are far worse than his average stats the previous 3 seasons. The intent in trading for Butler was to acquire an All-Star caliber veteran still in his prime. The assets we gave up to get him are what you give up for an all-star caliber player. Butler's career averages over 6 seasons are not all-star caliber because he was statistically a one-way player his first 3 seasons in the League. It was his next 3 seasons when his stats vaulted into all-star caliber territory. So I used those 3 seasons as my baseline for comparison. After 11 games, Jimmy's are well short of what they were the previous 3 season in every category. He's way off his average in points, but also off in FG attempts, FG percentage, 3-point attempts, 3-point percentage, free throw volume, rebounds, assists and steals. Meanwhile, our team defense remains one of the worst in the NBA and, based on my eye test, Jimmy has not blown away with his defense.

The good news is that, in spite of Jimmy's below-average production to date this season, the Wolves are winning. I'd be surprised if Jimmy's stats don't ramp up substantially to be more in line with his production the past 3 seasons -- except perhaps for points per game given all the other scorers we have, although even his scoring average should go up. So I'm not alarmed by Jimmy's production so far since I see it as a positive from a team perspective in that the team is winning and Jimmy is likely to improve. And I like that he's deferring to the other players to get them involved and play to their strengths. He's the ultimate team player. But I'll be concerned if we don't get significantly more from Jimmy by Christmas. We traded for an all-star and that's what we should eventually expect to see. In the meantime, let's hope the winning continues.

I'd agree with most of what you said Lip, but I was always a little surprised at the amount of criticism that wig received for his rebounding #'s. 4 rebs isn't that bad. Butler has averaged 4.8 for his career. Wiggins is still young, and doesn't carry much weight on his frame. That being said, Wig isn't one to really mix it up physically.

I do expect Butler to settle in eventually, and start posting better numbers. The biggest improvement I have noticed this season, and I expect it start to translate to better numbers is the PnR defense of Gorgui (yes Q, I am giving him a compliment). He is finally getting out and showing on the ball handler. This might be G, or maybe Thibs realized how stupid his "icing the PnR" scheme was with G on the floor. He was literally exposing G's biggest weakness for the opponent.

KAT is the only starter with a PER over 16 (Gorgui and Belly have PERs over 16 off the bench)...I think all but Taj will be pushing 20 by the end of the season. Bazz has been ineffective, and Tyus has been way too reticent...I expect we will see better performances from both as the season progresses.

While the defense still has a long way to go (only the underperforming and dysfunctional Cavs have given up a higher adjusted field goal percentage), the offense averages 108.6 per game...9th in the league, despite having 3 new starters. All in all it has been a very promising start to the season.

sjm34 wrote:I'd agree with most of what you said Lip, but I was always a little surprised at the amount of criticism that wig received for his rebounding #'s. 4 rebs isn't that bad. Butler has averaged 4.8 for his career. Wiggins is still young, and doesn't carry much weight on his frame. That being said, Wig isn't one to really mix it up physically.

I do expect Butler to settle in eventually, and start posting better numbers. The biggest improvement I have noticed this season, and I expect it start to translate to better numbers is the PnR defense of Gorgui (yes Q, I am giving him a compliment). He is finally getting out and showing on the ball handler. This might be G, or maybe Thibs realized how stupid his "icing the PnR" scheme was with G on the floor. He was literally exposing G's biggest weakness for the opponent.

The criticism with Wiggins on his rebounding was more about it being a proxy for his effort/motor level overall. If we saw him hustling back on defense, challenging more shots at the rim, taking charges, etc., I don't think it would be that big of a deal. I think others are just perplexed that someone with his physical gifts can't give us more in that category. Multiple PGs have better career rebounding averages....

Good on you for finally giving Gorgui some props!

Teague should be mentioned when it comes to the big 3 because I think he is key to making this all work. He is averaging a career low usage rate as a starter and putting up 13-8. This team has a much higher ceiling than we have seen so far offensively but Teague finding his role is a big key. He can make it easier for these guys both as a threat to score and getting them looks. After struggling early he seems to have started finding his way.

monsterpile wrote:Teague should be mentioned when it comes to the big 3 because I think he is key to making this all work. He is averaging a career low usage rate as a starter and putting up 13-8. This team has a much higher ceiling than we have seen so far offensively but Teague finding his role is a big key. He can make it easier for these guys both as a threat to score and getting them looks. After struggling early he seems to have started finding his way.

Not sure....we don't have a single guy in the starting lineup that is a pure floor spacer, meaning you absolutely HAVE to stick on him on the perimeter or he will burn you big time. Having 4 guys that all need room to operate, yet none are elite at creating room to operate limits our offensive ceiling to an extent. I think we can continue being a top 10 offense, but I certainly can't see us going toe to toe with Houston or Golden State in terms of offensive efficiency.

Q12543 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Teague should be mentioned when it comes to the big 3 because I think he is key to making this all work. He is averaging a career low usage rate as a starter and putting up 13-8. This team has a much higher ceiling than we have seen so far offensively but Teague finding his role is a big key. He can make it easier for these guys both as a threat to score and getting them looks. After struggling early he seems to have started finding his way.

Not sure....we don't have a single guy in the starting lineup that is a pure floor spacer, meaning you absolutely HAVE to stick on him on the perimeter or he will burn you big time. Having 4 guys that all need room to operate, yet none are elite at creating room to operate limits our offensive ceiling to an extent. I think we can continue being a top 10 offense, but I certainly can't see us going toe to toe with Houston or Golden State in terms of offensive efficiency.

I think you nailed it, Q. The lack of a pure floor spacer strikes me as a ceiling that will keep this team from being among the elite. Maybe we can get Zach LaVine back to fill that role. :) I might feel differently if this team had any hope of becoming elite defensively, but I don't see it.

Wiggins improvements are nominally noted in the stats. I think his decision making has been the biggest noticeable trend. Career high in 3pa and career lows in 2pa. Shooting a career high .51 eFG. He seems to be playing within the system and is benefitting from it even though his 3pt% isn't where I think it could be. He's had a few multi steal games too which has been a plus. I think if he keeps making good decisions he's going to notice bigger statistical gains.

thedoper wrote:Wiggins improvements are nominally noted in the stats. I think his decision making has been the biggest noticeable trend. Career high in 3pa and career lows in 2pa. Shooting a career high .51 eFG. He seems to be playing within the system and is benefitting from it even though his 3pt% isn't where I think it could be. He's had a few multi steal games too which has been a plus. I think if he keeps making good decisions he's going to notice bigger statistical gains.

That's a good assessment, Doper. There are definitely some signs, only partially reflected in his stats, that suggest Wiggins may have taken a significant step forward. But I haven't seen enough yet to convince me that he's turned the corner in a meaningful way. So far, I'd say that he's been the biggest single beneficiary of having Butler on the team and playing along side him.

If Butler's role here is to be mostly deferential and facilitate on offense, I'm ok with that. We don't need him to score 20 ppg. His defense has rubbed off on Wiggins a bit. And we're winning close games, that's the difference with having a veteran team.