Minnesota Sports Forum

We now have a pretty complete picture of where the Wolves are at. We have 12 players under guaranteed contracts next season with a total payroll of about 131.27M. And we found out tonight that our first round draft pick will go to the Warriors, who have already traded the rights to the 2nd round pick we gave them. So what now?

The Wolves have 2 or 3 roster spots to fill and only about $5.5M to spend and stay below the $136.6M luxury tax threshold. Avoiding the luxury tax is probably a priority for the Wolves since the Wolves would be a repeat offender, which would result is some significant operational constraints they should and likely will want to avoid.

This salary constrain, as a practical matter, means that we won't see any significant additions via free agency. Rosas has pretty much told us that Bolmaro will be joining the Wolves next season. He'll have a rookie-scale salary of about $2.3M, which will leave the Wolves with only around $3M to spend without paying the luxury tax. The Wolves aren't going to attract a consequential free agent with $3 million. Therefore, they might as well sign Vanderbilt to a minimum contract, if he's willing. As a 4th year player, Vando's salary would be just under $1.6M, which would leave the Wolves with $1.45M remaining under the luxury tax threshold. That might be just enough to sign JMac. Adding Bolmaro and keeping both Vanderbilt and JMac on minimum salaries, the Wolves would have 14 players under contract and no room under the luxury tax to sign another free agent to hit the 15 player roster max.

If Rosas wants to make any significant additions to the roster, he'll have to make a trade to either acquire a player or free up salary space to sign a consequential free agent. Rosas will not (and should not) trade KAT or Ant. I doubt he'll trade DLO, in spite of the rampant speculation regarding Ben Simmons. I don't see Rosas trading McDaniels either and I hope I'm right about that. I suspect there will be a lot of interest in McDaniels and quite a bit of interest in Naz Reid. And there will certainly be interest around the League in Beasley. I suspect there will be some organizations out there interested in giving up a little to take a flier on Culver. And there will probably be some interest in Ricky for his veteran savvy, mentor ship and expiring contract. When the dust settles, I think one of more of the following will be traded: Ricky, Beasley, Culver and/or Reid. But I wouldn't bet a lot of money on any of them being gone by the start of next season.

Rosas just might decide to roll with what we have, counting on the core of KAT, Ant and DLO in combination with the things that McDaniels, Reid and Okogie bring to the table. Honestly, that's what I would do. I'd roll with who we have and see where we're at when next February when the trade deadline is approaching. Otherwise, I would would see if I could swap Rick and either Culver or Juancho for Steven Adams.

lipoli390 wrote:We now have a pretty complete picture of where the Wolves are at. We have 12 players under guaranteed contracts next season with a total payroll of about 131.27M. And we found out tonight that our first round draft pick will go to the Warriors, who have already traded the rights to the 2nd round pick we gave them. So what now?

The Wolves have 2 or 3 roster spots to fill and only about $5.5M to spend and stay below the $136.6M luxury tax threshold. Avoiding the luxury tax is probably a priority for the Wolves since the Wolves would be a repeat offender, which would result is some significant operational constraints they should and likely will want to avoid.

This salary constrain, as a practical matter, means that we won't see any significant additions via free agency. Rosas has pretty much told us that Bolmaro will be joining the Wolves next season. He'll have a rookie-scale salary of about $2.3M, which will leave the Wolves with only around $3M to spend without paying the luxury tax. The Wolves aren't going to attract a consequential free agent with $3 million. Therefore, they might as well sign Vanderbilt to a minimum contract, if he's willing. As a 4th year player, Vando's salary would be just under $1.6M, which would leave the Wolves with $1.45M remaining under the luxury tax threshold. That might be just enough to sign JMac. Adding Bolmaro and keeping both Vanderbilt and JMac on minimum salaries, the Wolves would have 14 players under contract and no room under the luxury tax to sign another free agent to hit the 15 player roster max.

If Rosas wants to make any significant additions to the roster, he'll have to make a trade to either acquire a player or free up salary space to sign a consequential free agent. Rosas will not (and should not) trade KAT or Ant. I doubt he'll trade DLO, in spite of the rampant speculation regarding Ben Simmons. I don't see Rosas trading McDaniels either and I hope I'm right about that. I suspect there will be a lot of interest in McDaniels and quite a bit of interest in Naz Reid. And there will certainly be interest around the League in Beasley. I suspect there will be some organizations out there interested in giving up a little to take a flier on Culver. And there will probably be some interest in Ricky for his veteran savvy, mentor ship and expiring contract. When the dust settles, I think one of more of the following will be traded: Ricky, Beasley, Culver and/or Reid. But I wouldn't bet a lot of money on any of them being gone by the start of next season.

Rosas just might decide to roll with what we have, counting on the core of KAT, Ant and DLO in combination with the things that McDaniels, Reid and Okogie bring to the table. Honestly, that's what I would do. I'd roll with who we have and see where we're at when next February when the trade deadline is approaching. Otherwise, I would would see if I could swap Rick and either Culver or Juancho for Steven Adams.

I don't think the Wolves have to worry about the repeater tax at this point. From what I see you have to be a Lux tax payer for 3 out of the 4 previous seasons to be a repeater tax payer. The following season they should be clear with Rubio Culver Juancho Layman all expiring unless the do something pretty significant to add to the roster in terms of salary for that year. I'm sure they will try and stay under the tax though.

It feels like they have the existing assets to go get Adams, but otherwise, I agree it's hard to see any other real big moves. We sure as hell better hope our 2nd and 3rd year guys show improvement. We can't have more Culver/Okogie disasters where guys regress or stagnate after just a season or two.

Q12543 wrote:It feels like they have the existing assets to go get Adams, but otherwise, I agree it's hard to see any other real big moves. We sure as hell better hope our 2nd and 3rd year guys show improvement. We can't have more Culver/Okogie disasters where guys regress or stagnate after just a season or two.

I agree on both points.

I agree that Adams is gettable without giving up any core guys, including Beasley. We might have to part with Nowell as part of a deal to get him, but that would be worth it in my view and I'm still really high on Nowell.

You identified the thing that keeps me up at night when thinking about the Wolves. Will we finally see our young guys improve significantly in their 2nd and 3rd seasons. I keep thinking back to the excitement that filled Wolvesland when Wiggins was named rookie of the year. Little did we know at the time that he had peaked that season. :).

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:We now have a pretty complete picture of where the Wolves are at. We have 12 players under guaranteed contracts next season with a total payroll of about 131.27M. And we found out tonight that our first round draft pick will go to the Warriors, who have already traded the rights to the 2nd round pick we gave them. So what now?

The Wolves have 2 or 3 roster spots to fill and only about $5.5M to spend and stay below the $136.6M luxury tax threshold. Avoiding the luxury tax is probably a priority for the Wolves since the Wolves would be a repeat offender, which would result is some significant operational constraints they should and likely will want to avoid.

This salary constrain, as a practical matter, means that we won't see any significant additions via free agency. Rosas has pretty much told us that Bolmaro will be joining the Wolves next season. He'll have a rookie-scale salary of about $2.3M, which will leave the Wolves with only around $3M to spend without paying the luxury tax. The Wolves aren't going to attract a consequential free agent with $3 million. Therefore, they might as well sign Vanderbilt to a minimum contract, if he's willing. As a 4th year player, Vando's salary would be just under $1.6M, which would leave the Wolves with $1.45M remaining under the luxury tax threshold. That might be just enough to sign JMac. Adding Bolmaro and keeping both Vanderbilt and JMac on minimum salaries, the Wolves would have 14 players under contract and no room under the luxury tax to sign another free agent to hit the 15 player roster max.

If Rosas wants to make any significant additions to the roster, he'll have to make a trade to either acquire a player or free up salary space to sign a consequential free agent. Rosas will not (and should not) trade KAT or Ant. I doubt he'll trade DLO, in spite of the rampant speculation regarding Ben Simmons. I don't see Rosas trading McDaniels either and I hope I'm right about that. I suspect there will be a lot of interest in McDaniels and quite a bit of interest in Naz Reid. And there will certainly be interest around the League in Beasley. I suspect there will be some organizations out there interested in giving up a little to take a flier on Culver. And there will probably be some interest in Ricky for his veteran savvy, mentor ship and expiring contract. When the dust settles, I think one of more of the following will be traded: Ricky, Beasley, Culver and/or Reid. But I wouldn't bet a lot of money on any of them being gone by the start of next season.

Rosas just might decide to roll with what we have, counting on the core of KAT, Ant and DLO in combination with the things that McDaniels, Reid and Okogie bring to the table. Honestly, that's what I would do. I'd roll with who we have and see where we're at when next February when the trade deadline is approaching. Otherwise, I would would see if I could swap Rick and either Culver or Juancho for Steven Adams.

I don't think the Wolves have to worry about the repeater tax at this point. From what I see you have to be a Lux tax payer for 3 out of the 4 previous seasons to be a repeater tax payer. The following season they should be clear with Rubio Culver Juancho Layman all expiring unless the do something pretty significant to add to the roster in terms of salary for that year. I'm sure they will try and stay under the tax though.

Thanks for the clarification on the repeater penalty rule. In any event, I think we both agree that the Wolves will avoid exceeding the luxury tax threshold. I just hope they don't trade away future picks to free up space for free agent signings. That's always a mistake. As you noted, the Wolves will have considerably more payroll flexibility after next season. They need to be patient.

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:We now have a pretty complete picture of where the Wolves are at. We have 12 players under guaranteed contracts next season with a total payroll of about 131.27M. And we found out tonight that our first round draft pick will go to the Warriors, who have already traded the rights to the 2nd round pick we gave them. So what now?

The Wolves have 2 or 3 roster spots to fill and only about $5.5M to spend and stay below the $136.6M luxury tax threshold. Avoiding the luxury tax is probably a priority for the Wolves since the Wolves would be a repeat offender, which would result is some significant operational constraints they should and likely will want to avoid.

This salary constrain, as a practical matter, means that we won't see any significant additions via free agency. Rosas has pretty much told us that Bolmaro will be joining the Wolves next season. He'll have a rookie-scale salary of about $2.3M, which will leave the Wolves with only around $3M to spend without paying the luxury tax. The Wolves aren't going to attract a consequential free agent with $3 million. Therefore, they might as well sign Vanderbilt to a minimum contract, if he's willing. As a 4th year player, Vando's salary would be just under $1.6M, which would leave the Wolves with $1.45M remaining under the luxury tax threshold. That might be just enough to sign JMac. Adding Bolmaro and keeping both Vanderbilt and JMac on minimum salaries, the Wolves would have 14 players under contract and no room under the luxury tax to sign another free agent to hit the 15 player roster max.

If Rosas wants to make any significant additions to the roster, he'll have to make a trade to either acquire a player or free up salary space to sign a consequential free agent. Rosas will not (and should not) trade KAT or Ant. I doubt he'll trade DLO, in spite of the rampant speculation regarding Ben Simmons. I don't see Rosas trading McDaniels either and I hope I'm right about that. I suspect there will be a lot of interest in McDaniels and quite a bit of interest in Naz Reid. And there will certainly be interest around the League in Beasley. I suspect there will be some organizations out there interested in giving up a little to take a flier on Culver. And there will probably be some interest in Ricky for his veteran savvy, mentor ship and expiring contract. When the dust settles, I think one of more of the following will be traded: Ricky, Beasley, Culver and/or Reid. But I wouldn't bet a lot of money on any of them being gone by the start of next season.

Rosas just might decide to roll with what we have, counting on the core of KAT, Ant and DLO in combination with the things that McDaniels, Reid and Okogie bring to the table. Honestly, that's what I would do. I'd roll with who we have and see where we're at when next February when the trade deadline is approaching. Otherwise, I would would see if I could swap Rick and either Culver or Juancho for Steven Adams.

I don't think the Wolves have to worry about the repeater tax at this point. From what I see you have to be a Lux tax payer for 3 out of the 4 previous seasons to be a repeater tax payer. The following season they should be clear with Rubio Culver Juancho Layman all expiring unless the do something pretty significant to add to the roster in terms of salary for that year. I'm sure they will try and stay under the tax though.

Thanks for the clarification on the repeater penalty rule. In any event, I think we both agree that the Wolves will avoid exceeding the luxury tax threshold. I just hope they don't trade away future picks to free up space for free agent signings. That's always a mistake. As you noted, the Wolves will have considerably more payroll flexibility after next season. They need to be patient.

How patient can they be when their best player will be an 8 year vet? Is it prudent to always be looking down the road while wasting another year of the best talent we have? 8 years is a long time for a big man. Expecting him to remain elite in years ten and beyond is high expectations.

I dont recall where but Rosas indicated in an interview a while back that if the pick conveyed to the Warriors that it opens up the opportunity to use the MLE.

Here's a good read: https://dunkingwithwolves.com/2021/06/25/minnesota-timberwolves-might-make-major-offseason-trade/

I was unaware until I read that article that not only do we have zero draft picks this year, but we also still owe owe second-round picks to the New York Knicks in 2023 and 2026 and to the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2024.

My gawd this is a shitty franchise. Personally, I think Pork is onto something. Our biggest/best asset has a shelf life. Most people feel he's untouchable/not going anywhere. Personally, i would be much more open to listen to offers. I don't see any way this team can be competative as is. They might be slightly less shitty with another year together - but not competative. I could barely stand to watch them this past season and have zero excitement for this next year knowing we don't even have draft picks.

Carlos Danger wrote:Here's a good read: https://dunkingwithwolves.com/2021/06/25/minnesota-timberwolves-might-make-major-offseason-trade/

I was unaware until I read that article that not only do we have zero draft picks this year, but we also still owe owe second-round picks to the New York Knicks in 2023 and 2026 and to the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2024.

My gawd this is a shitty franchise. Personally, I think Pork is onto something. Our biggest/best asset has a shelf life. Most people feel he's untouchable/not going anywhere. Personally, i would be much more open to listen to offers. I don't see any way this team can be competative as is. They might be slightly less shitty with another year together - but not competative. I could barely stand to watch them this past season and have zero excitement for this next year knowing we don't even have draft picks.

Rosas has made some boneheaded moves, which include (1) giving up assets in the 2019 draft to trade up for Garland without knowing for sure he'd get Garland; (2) drafting Culver when Garland wasn't available in spite of Culver's shooting issues; (3) trading our 1st round pick with minimal protection along with our 2nd round pick for DLO, another poor defender added to an already poor defensive team; (4) signing Juancho to a $7M per year contract; (5) failing to fill in in the roster with at least one good interior defender via free agency or trade; and (6) hiring Ryan Saunders as head coach when no other NBA franchise would even consider it. Moreover, Gersson' s poor asset management has left the Wolves capped out with almost no financial flexibility under the luxury tax, which should never be the case for a franchise near the bottom of the standings.

However, unlike David Khan, Gersson's tenure so far hasn't been all negative. In fact, his front office has made some really good moves, which include (1) signing undrafted free agents Naz Reid and JMaci, (2) trading for Beasley who looks like a true 3-point sharpshooter who also happens to be athletic and an excellent rebounder at his position; (3) acquiring Vanderbilt as part of the DLO deal; and (4) drafting Edwards and McDaniels last year. And while I don't like the DLO deal, Rosas should get some credit for moving on from Wiggins and ending up with a significantly better player (DLO) in my view. Drafting Bolmaro at #25 may also turn out to be a good or even great move in a year or two.

As for KAT's "shelf-life," it's a nonissue. He will turn 26 years old a month into next season. If you back at the careers of bigs, you'll see that they typically have their peak seasons from age 26 to 30, and while they might drop off a bit at age 31 they typically don't see a precipitous drop in their stats until age 34. Note that Hakeem had his best scoring average min his 10 season at age 32 and his second best scoring average in his 11th season at age 33. I think age is more important that years in the League since it's really just the aging process that saps a players athleticism, quickness, flexibility, etc. In any event, based on historical precedent, Towns is about to enter what should be the 4 or 5 best years of his career. Having had KAT here for 6 seasons, I think it would be a huge mistake to move on from him now just as he's entering the prime 4 or 5 years of his career. That's what I would call bad asset management. The issue for the Wolves isn't KAT's age or years in the League; it's his contract, which has 3 years left. Essentially, that means the Wolves have 2 more seasons to make this work with KAT before they'll likely have to trade him. If things aren't gelling by that time, KAT will have enormous trade value for contending teams as a perennial allstar in the middle of his prime. The Wolves could then re-tool around Edwards and McDaniels (and maybe Bolmaro and Naz).

Finally, as bad as things might look, there is reason for optimism. Again, we are not where we were at the end of Kahn's tenure when the Wolves were counting on an ridiculous hale Mary effort to sign RFA Batum and on the restoration of Brandon Roy's unfixable knees to turn the Wolves into a contender. Towns, DLO, Beasley, Edwards, McDaniels and Naz Reid form a really talented young nucleus. Vanderbilt, Nowell and possibly Bolmaro are intriguing young talents. It's also important to consider that we now have what appears to be a really good head coach after having about as bad a head coach as you can find. Remember also that the Suns had the worst record in the NBA two seasons ago and finished under .500 just last season. They had their three top young players, Booker, Ayton and Bridges, those two seasons. Yes, they added Chris Paul this season, but their success in the bubble last season came before the addition of CP3.

The main problem for the Suns before last season's bubble run was youth. As I see it, that was a major part of the Wolves problem this past season. That problem was compounded substantially by injuries to KAT and DLO and the trauma KAT experienced just before the season started. The Wolves already looked much better down the stretch after a big upgrade to the head coaching position, as KAT came back, and as the team's young guys, especially Edwards, started to adjust to the League. Unlike last season, the Wolves will have a full training camp before next season. They will also have a much better head coach from the beginning. Edwards and McDaniels will have a full offseason to work on their games and should be poised to take the big jump forward that most good players make going into their second seasons.

It's easy to be pessimistic as a Wolves fan. I get it. But there are a number of positives that we haven't had in prior years. This next season will be pivotal. The potential is clearly there for this team to pick up where it left off last season and make the playoffs. If they don't, then at this time next year the Wolves will have to seriously consider moving on from KAT and DLO to re-tool around Edwards and McDaniels. Unless and until that happens, it makes no sense to pursue a major overhaul by moving KAT.

If we are a disappointment by next year's deadline KAT will want out. I just cant see him dealing with another year of disappointment. Rosas better have something up his sleeve before the season starts. We've got over 30 mil locked up in Ricky, Juancho and Culver. Its insane. Too bad the ole sucker teams just looking to save long term money dont exist as much anymore.