Minnesota Sports Forum

OK. Here's my day by day realistic scenario for a Wolves 6th place finish. The scenario starts with this morning's standings, which find the Wolves in 7th place and a half game behind the Nuggets. Beginning with tonight's slate of games, here's how things might unfold:

Saturday, March 26: The Nuggets beat the Thunder tonight in Denver. I just can't see Denver losing at home to OKC. The Wolves don't play tonight, so that means the Wolves will likely be 1 game out when we wake up on the 27th.

Sunday, March 27: The Wolves play at Boston and lose. I just don't see the Wolves beating the Celtics in Boston, especially given the Wolves current physical issues. Denver doesn't play on Sunday, so the Wolves will likely be 1.5 games behind the Nuggets at the end of the night on the 27th.

Monday, March 28: The Nuggets play at Charlotte. This game is a toss up in my view, but I'll give the edge to the Hornets as the home team battling for the 8th seed in the play-in tournament, which would give them 2 chances farther than one at making the playoffs. The Wolves don't play Monday, so the Wolves will likely be 1 game behind Denver at the end of the night on the 28th.

Tuesday, March 29: Neither the Wolves nor Nuggets play. The Wolves remain 1 game behind Denver.

Wednesday, March 30: The Nuggets place the Pacers in Indiana. This strikes me as a sure win for the Nuggets. Denver's a much better team and will be motivated. In contrast, the Pacers have nothing to play for except lottery balls. The Wolves have a MUCH tougher match-up this day playing the Raptors in Toronto. The Raptors are a very good team that's been playing particularly well lately like the Wolves. The Raptors will also be highly motivated as they are nipping on the heels of the Cavs for the coveted 6th seed in the East. The Wolves are good enough to win this game, but it will be a tough one for them. Other than the Wolves game at Denver, this is the pivotal game in my view for the Wolves hope to finish in 6th ahead of the Nuggets. I'm giving the Wolves a win in this game, which I think is realistic even if not likely. With both teams winning, the Wolves will remain 1 game behind Denver heading onto their head-to-head matchup.

Friday, April 1: This is the big one. The Wolves play at Denver. If the Wolves have any chance of finishing in 6th ahead of the Nuggets, this is obviously a must win. The Wolves are at least as talented as the Nuggets (more so in my view) and have done well against Denver this season. So a Wolves' win is certainly realistic. I have the Wolves winning this one in my scenario, which will put the Wolves in a tie with Denver for 6th place.

Saturday, April 2: Neither team plays. Teams remain tied for 6th.

Sunday, April 3: The Nuggets play the Lakers in LA and the Wolves play the Rockets in Houston. Both the Nuggets and Wolves should win, leaving them tied for 6th.

Monday, April 4: No games scheduled

Tuesday, April 5: The Nuggets host the Spurs while the Wolves host the Wizards. Both teams should win, although I think the Nuggets less of a sure thing that the Wolves. (And of course, there are no sure wins in the NBA). When clock strikes midnight on the 5th, the Wolves and Nuggets will likely remain tied for 6th.

Wednesday, April 6: Neither team plays. The remain tied for 6th.

Thursday, April 7: This will be an especially big day for the Wolves in their battle for 6th. The Nuggets host the Grizzlies. If the Grizzlies are motivated and play to win, it's a game the Nuggets could lose. But the Grizzlies will have a lock on 2nd place with no chance at 1st and probably won't be as motivated as the Nuggets who will also have home court advantage. So I see the Nuggets winning this matchup. The Wolves host the Spurs. This will be a challenge for the Wolves. Although the Wolves are the more talented team and will be at home, the Spurs have been playing well lately and will probably be highly motivated if they still have a shot at overtaking the Lakers for a play-in spot. Nevertheless, I have the Wolves winning this one. So the team teams will likely remain tied for 6th when the bell tolls midnight on the 7th.

Friday and Saturday, April 8 and 9: Neither team plays.

Sunday, April 10 (last games of the season): The Nuggets host the Lakers while the Wolves host the Bulls. If the Lakers are still fighting to hold onto 10th place, they should be motivated and could steal one against the Nuggets in Denver. But I still see Denver winning this one. Meanwhile, the Wolves should beat a Bulls team that hasn't been playing particularly well lately. The Wolves remain tied with the Nuggets for 6th place and end up the 6th seed based on tie-breakers.

There you have it. Broken down day-by-day, that's the most realistic scenario I could come up with for the Wolves ending up the 6th seed in the West. As you can see, there's one outcome that's doubtful in this scenario - i.e., the Wolves v. Toronto. I gave this win to the Wolves in my scenario because it strikes me as the most realistic path the Wolves have to the 6th seed. I just can't see the Wolves beating Boston and I don't see the Nuggets losing any of the games I have them winning. Honestly, it's a stretch to assume the Wolves beat both Toronto and Denver on the road.

My main take-away is that the Wolves will likely end up in 7th place with a home play-in game against the Clippers. And I see three recent games as pivotal in the Wolves falling short: Their Phoenix game this past Wednesday, the Dallas game last Monday and the March 11 game in Orlando. The Wolves should have been able to hold onto a lead at home in the 4th quarter the other night. They should have beaten a far inferior Orlando team on the 11th. And they came so close to beating the Mavs in Dallas on Monday. If the Wolves had simply won two of those three, they'd be the favorites right not to finish 6th with a chance at finishing 4th or 5th. If the Wolves had won one of those games, I'd give them a 50-50 chance of finishing in 6th. But the reality is that the the odds are against the Wolves ending up in 6th and they'll have to face a Clippers team that might have Paul George back.

I'm not complaining. Most on this board and around the League did not expect the Wolves to end up in the top 7. I had them winning 46 games, so I obviously did see them as a top 7 or 8 team if not better. In any event, this season has already been a successful one for the Wolves regardless of what happens. And it's been a lot of fun along the way.

Good day-by-day breakdown, Lip. I think there are some additional outcomes that aren't as easily predictable -- including one where both Denver and Minnesota are top-six seeds and Utah falls into the play-in tournament. There's also a scenario where Minnesota runs the table and ends up as the fourth-seed. Plenty of basketball left to be played.

I also don't see Boston as an unbeatable opponent. They've been on a tear the last couple of months and made some very savvy additions at the trade deadline, but I don't think that team is significantly better than Minnesota. If the Wolves play up to their norms they should have a good chance of winning that game and every one the rest of the way.

Additionally, I see Denver's remaining matchups against Los Angeles as wildcards, or potential "klunkers" as we're calling it. LeBron James and the Lakers are currently just 2.0 games ahead of the Spurs for that 10th-seed. They might be in that race down to the wire. I could potentially see LeBron going nuts in one or both of those games trying to limp into the tournament.

Somebody needs to go outside and play! LOL