Minnesota Sports Forum

https://twitter.com/johnschuhmann/status/1430274684470374404/photo/1

(The chart I'm referencing appears on 8/24 in Schuhmann's twitter feed...you can also find the chart in Dane Moore's twitter feed).

I found this astonishing. In the past 25 years, the Wolves finished in the top 10 in defensive efficiency ONCE, and that was the year KG took them to the Western Conference finals. In eight other years they finished in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, but did not either make or advance in the playoffs.

We talk about 2-way players and "both sides of the court", but I would still argue that we talk offense ten times more than we talk about defense. This is natural. Offensive stats are more prevalent, reliable and easier to understand than defensive stats. But the chart above couldn't be more clear. Offense and defense aren't equivalent in terms of value...offense might put butts in the seats, but defense wins games.

The Wolves have often hired head coaches who were known as "offensive" coaches...Rick Adelman and Flip Saunders for example. But even in years in which they were led by more "defensive" coaches...say Thibs and Sam Mitchell...they were unable to crack the top 10 in defensive efficiency.

And now we have a POBO who, outside of the popular Beverley trade, has consistently shown that he only gives defense a passing glance. And that's the reason I'm not confident we can be a .500 club with this roster and POBO. Rosas has brought in names like Russell, Beasley, Juancho...none of whom have provided any value on the critical defensive end. This year we expect Russell and Beasley to play significant minutes if they are healthy, and they will be joined by a center who, while showing some improvement in defending the perimeter, is not considered a rim protector. Ant will play 35 minutes per game this season, and while he is athletic and has some defensive promise, my best expectation for him this season is to be average defensively. And barring an acquisition, we will have an eager but undersized Vando at PF. The only bright spot in the starting lineup is Jaden McDaniels, but we can't expect one 20-year-old plus defender in the starting lineup to turn things around.

Is there any hope for this season? An 11th hour trade that instantly transforms our roster would be a godsend, but we all know that is not likely. So any hope would have to come from some toughness and intolerance for poor defense from Finch. He needs to dole out playing time based on overall effectiveness on the court...how the player contributes at both ends of the court. And when he sees either laziness or stupidity on defense, I want to see him angrily yank the offending player off the court. We saw him do this a couple times last season with Ant, and I think it made him better. NBA players want playing time, and we have to develop a culture where you need to earn it at both ends of the court. Vegas doesn't think we can do it, and has established a win total that will leave us looking up at the playoffs once again. I'm afraid they have read this one correctly. The NBA has rewarded the Wolves with a soft schedule this season, and optimism will be rampant here as they flash a .500 record after their first 10 games...I'll try to fight it, but I'm such a rube I'll probably join the optimistic chorus. But our fortunes will change rapidly as the schedule gets tougher (or heaven forbid, we get hit by the injury bug once again). Absent any significant change in this roster, I'll be betting the under on the win total bet.

Wow.

The Lakers are 2nd in the NBA over the past 25 years with 7 seasons where they were top 10 in offense + defense.

The Spurs are 1st with 14 seasons.

__________

Every other NBA team has at least 4 top 10 seasons on defense... sans the Wolves (1) and Washington (3).




[Note: In 2014, the Wolves were top 10 on offense and on defense until the final week of the season... they finished 12th on defense.]

These are the 16 teams in the NBA that produced a record .500 or better assorted by how they finished in their respective conferences and where they ranked in terms of Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.

Eastern Conference
1. Philadelphia 76ers - 13th ORtg, 2nd DRtg
2. Brooklyn Nets - 1st ORtg, 22nd DRtg
3. Milwaukee Bucks - 5th ORtg, 9th DRtg
4. New York Knicks - 22nd ORtg, 4th DRtg
5. Atlanta Hawks - 9th ORtg, 18th DRtg
6. Miami Heat - 18th ORtg, 10th DRtg
7. Boston Celtics - 10th ORtg, 12th DRtg

Western Conference
1. Utah Jazz - 4th ORtg, 3rd DRtg
2. Phoenix Suns - 7th ORtg, 6th DRtg
3. Denver Nuggets - 6th ORtg, 11th DRtg
4. Los Angeles Clippers - 3rd ORtg, 8th DRtg
5. Dallas Mavericks - 8th ORtg, 21st DRtg
6. Portland Trailblazers - 2nd ORtg, 29th DRtg
7. Los Angeles Lakers - 24th ORtg, 1st DRtg
8. Memphis Grizzlies - 15th ORtg, 7th DRtg
9. Golden State Warriors - 20th ORtg, 5th DRtg

Mean: 10th ORtg, 11th DRtg
Median: 9th ORtg, 9th DRtg
Best: 1st ORtg, 1st DRtg
Worst: 24th ORtg, 29th DRtg

The general idea here is to show that teams can (and do) win in the NBA with varying styles. Some teams are built to be better offensively. Some teams are built to be better defensively. There are some teams that are good both offensively and defensively. A traditional rule of thumb is that you want your team to rank in the top-10 in both categories, but it's not impossible to be a good NBA team that leans heavily on offense or defense.

Obviously, I make that point because the Timberwolves as currently constructed lean towards being a roster of offensive talent. Keep in mind, though, that Minnesota finished 25th and 28th in Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, respectively, so it's not like they couldn't or shouldn't be able to improve in either category. With better health, more of Chris Finch (and no more Ryan Saunders), and the additions they've made this off-season, the expectation should be that they improve offensively and defensively -- resulting in significantly more wins.

Yes defense matters.

Defensive rating under Adelman each year.

Year 1 106.6 (25th of 30) (previous year under Rambis 111.1 (27th of 30)
Year 2 105.4 (13th of 30)
Year 3 106.2 (12th of 30)

Adelman did a nice job of having a balanced team despite not have int. A great deal of impact players known as good defenders. If Finch is the next Adelman I would be pretty thrilled.

Same with Flip Saunders. He was typically the middle of the pack in terms of defensive rating while having a top 10 sometimes even top 5 offense.

Is that good enough? Maybe not but I could live with that level of competence. I'm not sure in a lot of cases it was not really coaching that was the problem.

Note also that Towns is one of the best catch and shoot 3 point shooters in the NBA.

This is what I've been harping on! The defensive issues transcend players, front offices, and coaching staffs. It's a cultural issue, plain and simple. The franchise doesn't value defense and this trait gets passed down from one regime to the other. It will only get broken when a handful of key players and coaching staff make defense a priority and do so in a way that is totally in synch with each other (for an example where we had all of the ingredients, but none of the being in synch, reference the Thibs/Butler/Gibson years).

And it won't happen with the current iteration of Wolves (KAT, DLO, and Ant), so we need to go the Portland or Brooklyn route and try to be elite offensively.

I agree wholeheartedly with this. My favorite players are those that play hard both ways, especially on the defensive side.

Simmons

WolvesFan21 wrote:Simmons

I think it's dangerous to think that Ben Simmons changes this team's defensive prowess by himself. Simply sliding him into the lineup definitely boosts their team effort on that end, but he can't account for the multiple defensive holes we'll have on the floor at any given moment. That's just a tall task.

I think the stats Cam posted tell the tale. It's always tempting to focus on one thing and elevate its importance. That's something we often do with defense. I recognize the importance of defense to winning in the NBA. But the truth is, it's not all one thing or the other. It's a combination of things and, ultimately, it's simply a matter of how good your team is overall.

As Cam and others have noted, the Wolves' roster is built primarily for offense. History shows that you can be a playoff team and advance in the playoffs primarily as a really good offensive team even if your defense is bad. The better your offense, the more you can get away with poor defense and vise versa. The Wolves have nowhere to go statistically but up on both sides of the ball. The good news on the offensive end is that the Wolves are loaded with offensive talent in KAT, DLO, Beasley, KAT and even Naz. The good news on the defensive end is that defense is as much a matter of coaching, culture and effort as it is talent. I have a good feeling about Chris Finch and his ability to get the most out of his players on both sides of the ball.

lipoli390 wrote:I think the stats Cam posted tell the tale. It's always tempting to focus on one thing and elevate its importance. That's something we often do with defense. I recognize the importance of defense to winning in the NBA. But the truth is, it's not all one thing or the other. It's a combination of things and, ultimately, it's simply a matter of how good your team is overall.

As Cam and others have noted, the Wolves' roster is built primarily for offense. History shows that you can be a playoff team and advance in the playoffs primarily as a really good offensive team even if your defense is bad. The better your offense, the more you can get away with poor defense and vise versa. The Wolves have nowhere to go statistically but up on both sides of the ball. The good news on the offensive end is that the Wolves are loaded with offensive talent in KAT, DLO, Beasley, KAT and even Naz. The good news on the defensive end is that defense is as much a matter of coaching, culture and effort as it is talent. I have a good feeling about Chris Finch and his ability to get the most out of his players on both sides of the ball.

The Wolves were something like 28th in defense from the time Finch took over as coach last season. Whatever he did had zero impact on the team's ability to get stops. Again, this is a cultural issue that has been passed down from player group to player group over the years. KAT, DLO, and Ant certainly won't be doing anything to change that reality I'm afraid. We're going to need to be in the top 5-10 offensively to have a shot at .500 ball.