Where Will the Elite Free Agents End Up
Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:09 pm
I think most would agree that the elite free agents this summer are the following 8: Kyrie Irving, Jason Thompson, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Kemba Walker and Al Horford, although Butler, Kemba, Tobias and Al aren't on quite the same level as the others in my view. Where these top 8 end up will play a huge role in determining where the free agents in the next tier go. I see that next tier starting with D'Angelo Russell and including Harrison Barnes among others.
The question for the Board is this - where will each of the 8 elite free agents end up? Here are my predictions:
Jason Thompson: Stays with the Warriors
Kyrie Irving: Brooklyn Nets.
Kevin Durant: Stays with Warriors or ends up with the Nets
Butler: Stays with the Sixers or ends up with the Clippers
Harris: Stays with the Sixers
Kawhi Leonard: Toronto or Clippers. I still can't figure out which one.
Kemba Walker: Stays in Charlotte
Al Horford: Dallas or Clippers
So what might this mean for the Wolves? Hard to say. Depending on exactly what happens with the elite 8, I could see Russell getting a max offer from the Lakers, Clippers, or Suns.
At a minimum it means the Knicks will have nearly $60 million in cap space to spend but no elite free agents to spend it on. If they want, then could sign most or the next tier of free agents, although they don't need a PG so I don't see the pursuing Russell unless the trade Dennis Smith Jr.
Unless the Lakers can restructure their deal with the Pelicans, they can't sign any of the 8 elite free agents unless one of them takes significantly less money to sign there. I just don't see that happening. And even if they had the cap room, I don't see any of the elite free agents wanting to play with LeBron and be part of the Lakers drama. But I can definitely see Russell signing there since the Lakers have enough to offer him a max. It's already been reported that Russell has expressed an interest in signing with the Lakers. It could be posturing, but I think Russell has the Diva in him to want to be on the Hollywood stage. And he's too immature to fully appreciate how difficult it would be to play with LeBron. The Lakers need a PG. They don't have the money to sign Kyrie and reports about Kyrie signing the the Nets are too widespread to dismiss as the usual speculation. I would think that Kemba would be the Lakers's second choice, but I've read a number of reports that Kemba wouldn't want to play and live in LA. He'll make substantially more money re-signing with Charlotte. He's an east coach guy, so if he leaves Charlotte I'd bet on him going home to NY before he'd sign with the Lakers. Obviously, his best chance for a ring would be the Lakers, but again, the Lakers don't have the cap room to give him the full 4-year max teams like the Knicks and Suns can give him.
If the Clippers don't get Kawhi, I see them making a major push for Butler and possibly to bring back Tobias. I could also see them extending an offer to Russell.
The Suns don't figure to be in the running for any of the elite 8. But it's been reported that the Suns might have an interest in Russell and we've all read that Russell and Booker are good friends. The weather there is nice and Russell would be the undisputed leader of that team, which might prove very appealing to Russell's ego.
I still see a path for the Wolves to get Russell. But it's far more complicated and uncertain than the path for Russell to end up with the Lakers, Clippers or Suns -- all teams that can sign him outright without having to give up assets in a salary dump or negotiate a 3-way sign-and-trade deal.
The question for the Board is this - where will each of the 8 elite free agents end up? Here are my predictions:
Jason Thompson: Stays with the Warriors
Kyrie Irving: Brooklyn Nets.
Kevin Durant: Stays with Warriors or ends up with the Nets
Butler: Stays with the Sixers or ends up with the Clippers
Harris: Stays with the Sixers
Kawhi Leonard: Toronto or Clippers. I still can't figure out which one.
Kemba Walker: Stays in Charlotte
Al Horford: Dallas or Clippers
So what might this mean for the Wolves? Hard to say. Depending on exactly what happens with the elite 8, I could see Russell getting a max offer from the Lakers, Clippers, or Suns.
At a minimum it means the Knicks will have nearly $60 million in cap space to spend but no elite free agents to spend it on. If they want, then could sign most or the next tier of free agents, although they don't need a PG so I don't see the pursuing Russell unless the trade Dennis Smith Jr.
Unless the Lakers can restructure their deal with the Pelicans, they can't sign any of the 8 elite free agents unless one of them takes significantly less money to sign there. I just don't see that happening. And even if they had the cap room, I don't see any of the elite free agents wanting to play with LeBron and be part of the Lakers drama. But I can definitely see Russell signing there since the Lakers have enough to offer him a max. It's already been reported that Russell has expressed an interest in signing with the Lakers. It could be posturing, but I think Russell has the Diva in him to want to be on the Hollywood stage. And he's too immature to fully appreciate how difficult it would be to play with LeBron. The Lakers need a PG. They don't have the money to sign Kyrie and reports about Kyrie signing the the Nets are too widespread to dismiss as the usual speculation. I would think that Kemba would be the Lakers's second choice, but I've read a number of reports that Kemba wouldn't want to play and live in LA. He'll make substantially more money re-signing with Charlotte. He's an east coach guy, so if he leaves Charlotte I'd bet on him going home to NY before he'd sign with the Lakers. Obviously, his best chance for a ring would be the Lakers, but again, the Lakers don't have the cap room to give him the full 4-year max teams like the Knicks and Suns can give him.
If the Clippers don't get Kawhi, I see them making a major push for Butler and possibly to bring back Tobias. I could also see them extending an offer to Russell.
The Suns don't figure to be in the running for any of the elite 8. But it's been reported that the Suns might have an interest in Russell and we've all read that Russell and Booker are good friends. The weather there is nice and Russell would be the undisputed leader of that team, which might prove very appealing to Russell's ego.
I still see a path for the Wolves to get Russell. But it's far more complicated and uncertain than the path for Russell to end up with the Lakers, Clippers or Suns -- all teams that can sign him outright without having to give up assets in a salary dump or negotiate a 3-way sign-and-trade deal.