Wolves Cap-Clearing Opportunities
Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:32 pm
The Wolves are currently about $5 million over the salary cap if they renounce their cap holds, including the cap hold for Tyus Jones.
We've all been speculating that the Wolves are looking to clear cap space either separately or as part of a sign-and-trade to sign D. Russell. That would mean clearing about $30 million in salary.
But even apart from the desire to get Russell, the Wolves have good reason to pursue salary-dumping opportunities to better position the team both short and long term for more flexibility to pursue other potential free agents and trade opportunities. Assuming the Wolves are looking to clear cap space, there are three threshold questions: (1) how much space would the Wolves want to clear; (2) who should the Wolves move to clear that space; and (3) what teams would be the most viable/realistic options for a meaningful cap-clearing deal with the Wolves?
1. How much space should the Wolves clear?
The short answer is that they should clear the space they need to make a meaningful or substantial difference. In my view, that means enough space to sign free agents or execute trades that bring in players who will meaningfully move the needle in pursuit of what should be the Wolves goal of building a championship contender around KAT over the next 5 years. One such potentially needle-moving player we've discussed in D'Angelo Russell given his upside talent, position, skill set and age. In any event, whether it's Russell or someone else and whether it's this summer or next, moves designed to clear space have to be tied to specific concert acquisition targets who have a good chance of moving the needle as I've described. I'm a firm believer that you don't just clear space and hope for the best. You don't build it and hope they'll come. That's not the way to run a multi-million dollars business.
To create cap space for a potentially needle-moving player (or players) this summer, the Wolves in my view would need to shed at least $25 million in salary. Given that the Wolves are currently about $5 million over the cap, shedding $25 million would give the Wolves about $20 million in cap space. Ideally, the Wolves would shed $30 million so they could offer a max contract to a player coming off his rookie deal. So the goal in my view should be shedding $30 million in salary if the Wolves choose to create cap room this summer for Russell or some other player(s).
2. Who should the Wolves move to clear that space?
To shed $30 million without unduly depleting the roster, the Wolves would have to move Wiggins along with another smaller contract player like Reynolds, Culver or Okogie, or move at least two of the following three players/contracts: Covington Gorgui and/or Teague.
I don't think it's realistic to expect that a team will take Wiggins $27 million+ contract with 4 years remaining unless we at least take back a comparable shorter-term contract and give them a sweetener like a couple future 2nd rounders at least. One possibility might be dealing Wiggins and a couple future 2nd rounders to the Heat for Whiteside. Miami would get a very talented player and modest future draft assets while the Wolves would get a shot-blocker to pair with KAT for one season and cap relief thereafter in what would be the remaining 3 years of Wiggins' contract. I just don't see a team with $30 million in cap room that would take Wiggins without us giving up at least one future first round picks. And even that's doubtful and it's not something I'd be willing to do unless I knew for sure I'd be getting the needle-moving player I want - perhaps that's Russell.
Otherwise, I think the more likely scenario would be dealing Teague and either Dieng or Covington. Teague provides a solid albeit overpaid starting caliber vet PG still in his prime and an expiring deal that will offer cap relief next summer. Covington provides a very good starting caliber 3&D SF or PF who can defend about as well as anyone in the League. He's still in his prime, is a great teammate and has a very team-friendly contract that has several years left, which ensures the receiving team won't lose him any time soon. Dieng would be the toughest of these three to unload. He's actually not a bad player and he's a terrific teammate by all accounts. His $16-17 million salary isn't totally untenable and he only has two years left on his deal. But including him as one of the two in a deal would likely require us to give up more additional assets, likely at least one future 1st round pick.
3. What teams would be the most viable/realistic options for a meaningful cap-clearing deal with the Wolves?
I'll just suggest one for now - the Knicks. If they relinquish their all their cap holds, the Knicks will have just under $60 million in cap space this summer. Obviously, they are going to pursue elite free agents like Kyrie, Durant, Thompson, Kawhi and Kemba Walker. But I don't see any of those free agents going there.
There's an emerging consensus among the top reporters that Kyrie will sign with the Nets. I see Durant either staying with the Warriors or signing with the Nets to team up with Kyrie a year from now. I have no doubt that Thompson will stay with the Warriors. I'd be surprised if Kawhi went to the Knicks. By all accounts he really likes it in Toronto and had a great experience this season so I think he'll stay there where he can also get a bigger contract. Otherwise, it's well known that Kawhi has wanted to play in his home town, LA. He has two really good options there - most likely the Clippers. So the only elite FA who might sign with the Knicks would be Kemba, but I don't see that happening. The Hornets have been clear they want to resign Kemba and they can pay him more than any other team. If Kemba opts to go elsewhere it will likely be in pursuit of a ring and the Knicks wouldn't fit that goal.
So once the big names have signed elsewhere, the Knicks will be sitting on nearly $60 million in cap space with three very young cornerstone talents in Knox, Barrett and Smith Jr. Meanwhile the Knicks would need to fill out there roster and they would likely want to get enough veteran talent around that young core to make the team reasonably competitive to the point where the season isn't demoralizing. I would think that the Knicks would be interested in surrounding their core young three with solid veterans who can would be good teammates, good for team culture, helpful mentor and still able to play at a high level. Teague and Covington come to mind as perfect fits for the Knicks right now. They could absorb the $30 million salary of those two and still have about $30 million in remaining cap space. Teague would come off the books next summer to free up even more space for the Knicks to be a major player in free agency. I could also see the Knicks taking Gorgui along with Teague, but that would probably require the Wolves to add a future 1st or at least two 2nd rounders.
So I'm thinking that any plan to clear $30 million in cap space for Russell or some other player likely involves the Knicks. But I'm sure there are other options. I'm looking forward to other thoughts from the rest of you.
We've all been speculating that the Wolves are looking to clear cap space either separately or as part of a sign-and-trade to sign D. Russell. That would mean clearing about $30 million in salary.
But even apart from the desire to get Russell, the Wolves have good reason to pursue salary-dumping opportunities to better position the team both short and long term for more flexibility to pursue other potential free agents and trade opportunities. Assuming the Wolves are looking to clear cap space, there are three threshold questions: (1) how much space would the Wolves want to clear; (2) who should the Wolves move to clear that space; and (3) what teams would be the most viable/realistic options for a meaningful cap-clearing deal with the Wolves?
1. How much space should the Wolves clear?
The short answer is that they should clear the space they need to make a meaningful or substantial difference. In my view, that means enough space to sign free agents or execute trades that bring in players who will meaningfully move the needle in pursuit of what should be the Wolves goal of building a championship contender around KAT over the next 5 years. One such potentially needle-moving player we've discussed in D'Angelo Russell given his upside talent, position, skill set and age. In any event, whether it's Russell or someone else and whether it's this summer or next, moves designed to clear space have to be tied to specific concert acquisition targets who have a good chance of moving the needle as I've described. I'm a firm believer that you don't just clear space and hope for the best. You don't build it and hope they'll come. That's not the way to run a multi-million dollars business.
To create cap space for a potentially needle-moving player (or players) this summer, the Wolves in my view would need to shed at least $25 million in salary. Given that the Wolves are currently about $5 million over the cap, shedding $25 million would give the Wolves about $20 million in cap space. Ideally, the Wolves would shed $30 million so they could offer a max contract to a player coming off his rookie deal. So the goal in my view should be shedding $30 million in salary if the Wolves choose to create cap room this summer for Russell or some other player(s).
2. Who should the Wolves move to clear that space?
To shed $30 million without unduly depleting the roster, the Wolves would have to move Wiggins along with another smaller contract player like Reynolds, Culver or Okogie, or move at least two of the following three players/contracts: Covington Gorgui and/or Teague.
I don't think it's realistic to expect that a team will take Wiggins $27 million+ contract with 4 years remaining unless we at least take back a comparable shorter-term contract and give them a sweetener like a couple future 2nd rounders at least. One possibility might be dealing Wiggins and a couple future 2nd rounders to the Heat for Whiteside. Miami would get a very talented player and modest future draft assets while the Wolves would get a shot-blocker to pair with KAT for one season and cap relief thereafter in what would be the remaining 3 years of Wiggins' contract. I just don't see a team with $30 million in cap room that would take Wiggins without us giving up at least one future first round picks. And even that's doubtful and it's not something I'd be willing to do unless I knew for sure I'd be getting the needle-moving player I want - perhaps that's Russell.
Otherwise, I think the more likely scenario would be dealing Teague and either Dieng or Covington. Teague provides a solid albeit overpaid starting caliber vet PG still in his prime and an expiring deal that will offer cap relief next summer. Covington provides a very good starting caliber 3&D SF or PF who can defend about as well as anyone in the League. He's still in his prime, is a great teammate and has a very team-friendly contract that has several years left, which ensures the receiving team won't lose him any time soon. Dieng would be the toughest of these three to unload. He's actually not a bad player and he's a terrific teammate by all accounts. His $16-17 million salary isn't totally untenable and he only has two years left on his deal. But including him as one of the two in a deal would likely require us to give up more additional assets, likely at least one future 1st round pick.
3. What teams would be the most viable/realistic options for a meaningful cap-clearing deal with the Wolves?
I'll just suggest one for now - the Knicks. If they relinquish their all their cap holds, the Knicks will have just under $60 million in cap space this summer. Obviously, they are going to pursue elite free agents like Kyrie, Durant, Thompson, Kawhi and Kemba Walker. But I don't see any of those free agents going there.
There's an emerging consensus among the top reporters that Kyrie will sign with the Nets. I see Durant either staying with the Warriors or signing with the Nets to team up with Kyrie a year from now. I have no doubt that Thompson will stay with the Warriors. I'd be surprised if Kawhi went to the Knicks. By all accounts he really likes it in Toronto and had a great experience this season so I think he'll stay there where he can also get a bigger contract. Otherwise, it's well known that Kawhi has wanted to play in his home town, LA. He has two really good options there - most likely the Clippers. So the only elite FA who might sign with the Knicks would be Kemba, but I don't see that happening. The Hornets have been clear they want to resign Kemba and they can pay him more than any other team. If Kemba opts to go elsewhere it will likely be in pursuit of a ring and the Knicks wouldn't fit that goal.
So once the big names have signed elsewhere, the Knicks will be sitting on nearly $60 million in cap space with three very young cornerstone talents in Knox, Barrett and Smith Jr. Meanwhile the Knicks would need to fill out there roster and they would likely want to get enough veteran talent around that young core to make the team reasonably competitive to the point where the season isn't demoralizing. I would think that the Knicks would be interested in surrounding their core young three with solid veterans who can would be good teammates, good for team culture, helpful mentor and still able to play at a high level. Teague and Covington come to mind as perfect fits for the Knicks right now. They could absorb the $30 million salary of those two and still have about $30 million in remaining cap space. Teague would come off the books next summer to free up even more space for the Knicks to be a major player in free agency. I could also see the Knicks taking Gorgui along with Teague, but that would probably require the Wolves to add a future 1st or at least two 2nd rounders.
So I'm thinking that any plan to clear $30 million in cap space for Russell or some other player likely involves the Knicks. But I'm sure there are other options. I'm looking forward to other thoughts from the rest of you.