Timberwolves Draft Prospect Analysis Thread
Posted: Sun May 12, 2019 5:05 pm
Lottery day is fast approaching. In a little over 48 hours we will know the Wolves draft position. I've been spending a lot of time this weekend reading reviews and watching videos of this year's 1st round prospects. I'm convinced more now than ever that this is a particularly weak draft class once you get beyond the top 3 or 4.
THE TOP 4 - Zion, Ja, Barrett, Garland
I see a top tier of two who are likely to become elite/star NBA players - Zion & Ja. Then I see a second tier of likely all all-stars with some superstar potential - Barrett & Garland. After those two, I see a huge drop off. There are several others with what I'd consider star potential, namely Reddish, Bol Bol, Porter Jr. and Langford. But all four, especially the first three, have major red flags associated with them. Right now, I have Reddish and Bol Bol on my stay-away list, which means I wouldn't draft them under any circumstances, regardless of who is or isn't available.
THE TALENTED RED FLAGGED FOUR - Reddish, Bol Bol, Porter & Langdon
Reddish has a bigger red flag flying over his name than Wiggins did when he came out of college. Reddish took disappearing from games to another level of invisibility as a college freshman. His 39% FG shooting and all around terrible college stats reinforce the stay-away signals you get watching him play as I did a number of times this season. The public scouting reports on him uniformly call his effort and desire into question.
Bol Bol has two red flags -- physical health in the wake of his foot injury and what is widely reported as far too frequent lack of effort or desire.
Kevin Porter has a world of talent and could be the most talented wing in the draft after Barrett, but the reports on him are troublesome. So far, I haven't seen him play beyond some highlight footage and I'd still like to know more. So maybe he's salvageable and worth taking a gamble on. I currently have him on my stay-away list, but I'm open to taking him off the list depending on further information. In contrast, there is nothing I can envision that would cause me to take Bol Bol or Reddish off my stay-away list. It will be a real test for the Wolves this June, because I anticipate Bol Bol and Reddish being available when the Wolves are on the clock at #10 or 11.
I'm still not sure what to make of Langford. His 3-point shooting was terrible at 27% but he had a broken finger on his shooting hand most of the season so that's a mitigating factor. I've read scouting reports that he disappears from games, sometimes looks disengaged and doesn't want the ball. But I'd like to know more. Of all the wings, I think he's the best at attacking and scoring off the dribble. He handles the ball like a yo-yo on a string with excellent quickness, great change of direction and terrific explosion off the floor. His stats show him to be an excellent finisher. So I don't have him on my stay-away list yet with Bol Bol, Reddish and Porter.
THE HIGH FLOOR 4 - Hunter, Hachimura, Culver & Alexander-Walker
There are some nice high-floor prospects with limited upside outside my top 4, including Hunter, Hachimura, Culver and Alexander-Walker. I wouldn't consider Hunter. He looks like the only top PF prospect who can become a legitimate stretch 4 in the NBA. But his paltry rebounding numbers (5 per game in 32.5 MPG) tell me to stay away. A prospect's rebounding stats are highly indicative of what to expect from him in the NBA, except that the numbers end up slightly lower. You just can't have a PF on the floor in the NBA who doesn't rebound well, especially when you don't get much rebounding from you wings (Wiggins) and PGs. Hachimura isn't must better at 6.5 boards per game and he doesn't have Hunter's defensive or 3-point talent. I like Culver. He's put up good college numbers, but he doesn't seem to have the quickness or athleticism to translate well to the NBA. He doesn't have a particularly quick first step or a good change of direction and his handle is a bit loose. I actually think Alexander-Walker has a better upside than Culver, but otherwise I see the two as similar players who will likely be solid NBA players but never all star caliber.
THE HIGH CEILING SLEEPER 4 -- Bassey, Clarke, Okpala & Ponds
So far in my review, the players outside the top 4 with the the biggest upsides and no serious red flags yet revealed are the following in no particular order:
1. Bassey. His 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 31 minutes per game as a freshman are particularly impressive and bode well for the next level. I also like his 62.7% FG shooting and 77% free throw shooting. He's long and athletic. I can see him being a big-time rebounder and very good shot-blocker with a reliable inside shot at the next level. And I can see him extending his range and eventually hitting corner threes in the NBA. I see a potential future all-star in Bassey.
2. Brandon Clarke. He's the best shot-blocker in college basketball with 3.2 in only 28 minutes per game. He also pulled down 8.6 rebounds per game and hit 68.7% of his field goal attempts. He's a bit older than Bass as a Junior, but I see him as a late bloomer who benefitted from the move to Gonzaga. I've read reports indicating that he's fixed his shooting mechanics and had the potential to be good perimeter shooter. I've also read that he has a great worth ethic and is very coachable. I'm a bit out on a limb, but I'd say he's another potential NBA all star, although I wouldn't bet a lot on it. The point is that he has very impressive upside. He reminds me of John Collins, except that he's a better shot-blocker than Collins.
3. Okpala. His combination of length and athleticism is intriguing. I've also been impressed by his ball-handling in the highlight footage I've seen. I didn't expect someone that long to be that adept with the ball. He's quick and agile with the ability to get to the rim. His stats are impressive in the areas you'd want to see impressive stats from a wing - 16.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 46.3% FG shooting and nearly 37% 3-point shooting. I'd a bit concerned by his 67% free throw shooting, but I like that he got to the line a lot with 6 attempts per game. I have more confidence in Culver and Alexander-Walker becoming good NBA players. But I see more upside in Okpala and can envision him becoming an all star caliber player at the next level.
4. Shamorie Ponds. I know I'm way out on a limb with this guy on my high-ceiling sleeper list. All the mock drafts and ratings I've seen have him getting drafted in the second round. But his stats can't be overlooked. He averaged 19.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists and a really impressive 2.6 steals per game. He also averaged 40% from behind the arc on 5.3 attempts per game. When looking for high upside, I look for special physical quality like freakish athleticism or freakish length. But I also look for a core stat that jumps off the page. Ponds' 2.6 steals per game is the sort of stat that jumps off the page. It tells me he's an elite disruptive defender and that he's lightning quick. Combined with nearly 20 points per game, I see an underrated player who could turn out to be a really good NBA player. I know he's a junior, but I'm still impressed. Hopefully, he'll still be available when the Wolves are making their second-round pick at #43.
THE MOST INTRIGUING QUESTION MARK -- Coby White
I'm not quite sure what to think of him. I'm troubled by his low 42.3% FG shooting and uninspiring 35% 3-point shooting from behind the college arc. His rebounding, assist and steal numbers are mediocre for his position at the college level. He's definitely a scorer, putting up 16.1 points per game in 28.5 minutes per game. He has a quick release on his jumper, which is good, but he also has a troublesome low release point on his jumper. He seems like a good ball handler, but seems to have an unduly high dribble that might prove problematic in the NBA. He's quick, but doesn't appear to have much spring off the floor. He's still young and I love his high revving motor. Most mocks seem to have White going to the Wolves at #10. I'm not sure yet whether that would be a good or bad thing.
This is where I hope Rosas makes a difference. But for starters, he had better improve the Wolves scouting department in the next couple weeks. I what we've heard about alignment and philosophy. But at the end of the day, it's about the people doing the analysis and making the recommendations as well as the people making the final decisions. Organizations are only as good as the people working for them. And in the end, success in the NBA turns on scouts and front office executives being good at evaluating players more than it does on philosophy, alignment or any other corporate buzz words you can come up with.
So let the thoughts flow on draft prospects the Wolves should consider - whether we're lucky enough to jump into the top 4 or end up in the more likely 10-12 range.
THE TOP 4 - Zion, Ja, Barrett, Garland
I see a top tier of two who are likely to become elite/star NBA players - Zion & Ja. Then I see a second tier of likely all all-stars with some superstar potential - Barrett & Garland. After those two, I see a huge drop off. There are several others with what I'd consider star potential, namely Reddish, Bol Bol, Porter Jr. and Langford. But all four, especially the first three, have major red flags associated with them. Right now, I have Reddish and Bol Bol on my stay-away list, which means I wouldn't draft them under any circumstances, regardless of who is or isn't available.
THE TALENTED RED FLAGGED FOUR - Reddish, Bol Bol, Porter & Langdon
Reddish has a bigger red flag flying over his name than Wiggins did when he came out of college. Reddish took disappearing from games to another level of invisibility as a college freshman. His 39% FG shooting and all around terrible college stats reinforce the stay-away signals you get watching him play as I did a number of times this season. The public scouting reports on him uniformly call his effort and desire into question.
Bol Bol has two red flags -- physical health in the wake of his foot injury and what is widely reported as far too frequent lack of effort or desire.
Kevin Porter has a world of talent and could be the most talented wing in the draft after Barrett, but the reports on him are troublesome. So far, I haven't seen him play beyond some highlight footage and I'd still like to know more. So maybe he's salvageable and worth taking a gamble on. I currently have him on my stay-away list, but I'm open to taking him off the list depending on further information. In contrast, there is nothing I can envision that would cause me to take Bol Bol or Reddish off my stay-away list. It will be a real test for the Wolves this June, because I anticipate Bol Bol and Reddish being available when the Wolves are on the clock at #10 or 11.
I'm still not sure what to make of Langford. His 3-point shooting was terrible at 27% but he had a broken finger on his shooting hand most of the season so that's a mitigating factor. I've read scouting reports that he disappears from games, sometimes looks disengaged and doesn't want the ball. But I'd like to know more. Of all the wings, I think he's the best at attacking and scoring off the dribble. He handles the ball like a yo-yo on a string with excellent quickness, great change of direction and terrific explosion off the floor. His stats show him to be an excellent finisher. So I don't have him on my stay-away list yet with Bol Bol, Reddish and Porter.
THE HIGH FLOOR 4 - Hunter, Hachimura, Culver & Alexander-Walker
There are some nice high-floor prospects with limited upside outside my top 4, including Hunter, Hachimura, Culver and Alexander-Walker. I wouldn't consider Hunter. He looks like the only top PF prospect who can become a legitimate stretch 4 in the NBA. But his paltry rebounding numbers (5 per game in 32.5 MPG) tell me to stay away. A prospect's rebounding stats are highly indicative of what to expect from him in the NBA, except that the numbers end up slightly lower. You just can't have a PF on the floor in the NBA who doesn't rebound well, especially when you don't get much rebounding from you wings (Wiggins) and PGs. Hachimura isn't must better at 6.5 boards per game and he doesn't have Hunter's defensive or 3-point talent. I like Culver. He's put up good college numbers, but he doesn't seem to have the quickness or athleticism to translate well to the NBA. He doesn't have a particularly quick first step or a good change of direction and his handle is a bit loose. I actually think Alexander-Walker has a better upside than Culver, but otherwise I see the two as similar players who will likely be solid NBA players but never all star caliber.
THE HIGH CEILING SLEEPER 4 -- Bassey, Clarke, Okpala & Ponds
So far in my review, the players outside the top 4 with the the biggest upsides and no serious red flags yet revealed are the following in no particular order:
1. Bassey. His 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 31 minutes per game as a freshman are particularly impressive and bode well for the next level. I also like his 62.7% FG shooting and 77% free throw shooting. He's long and athletic. I can see him being a big-time rebounder and very good shot-blocker with a reliable inside shot at the next level. And I can see him extending his range and eventually hitting corner threes in the NBA. I see a potential future all-star in Bassey.
2. Brandon Clarke. He's the best shot-blocker in college basketball with 3.2 in only 28 minutes per game. He also pulled down 8.6 rebounds per game and hit 68.7% of his field goal attempts. He's a bit older than Bass as a Junior, but I see him as a late bloomer who benefitted from the move to Gonzaga. I've read reports indicating that he's fixed his shooting mechanics and had the potential to be good perimeter shooter. I've also read that he has a great worth ethic and is very coachable. I'm a bit out on a limb, but I'd say he's another potential NBA all star, although I wouldn't bet a lot on it. The point is that he has very impressive upside. He reminds me of John Collins, except that he's a better shot-blocker than Collins.
3. Okpala. His combination of length and athleticism is intriguing. I've also been impressed by his ball-handling in the highlight footage I've seen. I didn't expect someone that long to be that adept with the ball. He's quick and agile with the ability to get to the rim. His stats are impressive in the areas you'd want to see impressive stats from a wing - 16.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 46.3% FG shooting and nearly 37% 3-point shooting. I'd a bit concerned by his 67% free throw shooting, but I like that he got to the line a lot with 6 attempts per game. I have more confidence in Culver and Alexander-Walker becoming good NBA players. But I see more upside in Okpala and can envision him becoming an all star caliber player at the next level.
4. Shamorie Ponds. I know I'm way out on a limb with this guy on my high-ceiling sleeper list. All the mock drafts and ratings I've seen have him getting drafted in the second round. But his stats can't be overlooked. He averaged 19.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists and a really impressive 2.6 steals per game. He also averaged 40% from behind the arc on 5.3 attempts per game. When looking for high upside, I look for special physical quality like freakish athleticism or freakish length. But I also look for a core stat that jumps off the page. Ponds' 2.6 steals per game is the sort of stat that jumps off the page. It tells me he's an elite disruptive defender and that he's lightning quick. Combined with nearly 20 points per game, I see an underrated player who could turn out to be a really good NBA player. I know he's a junior, but I'm still impressed. Hopefully, he'll still be available when the Wolves are making their second-round pick at #43.
THE MOST INTRIGUING QUESTION MARK -- Coby White
I'm not quite sure what to think of him. I'm troubled by his low 42.3% FG shooting and uninspiring 35% 3-point shooting from behind the college arc. His rebounding, assist and steal numbers are mediocre for his position at the college level. He's definitely a scorer, putting up 16.1 points per game in 28.5 minutes per game. He has a quick release on his jumper, which is good, but he also has a troublesome low release point on his jumper. He seems like a good ball handler, but seems to have an unduly high dribble that might prove problematic in the NBA. He's quick, but doesn't appear to have much spring off the floor. He's still young and I love his high revving motor. Most mocks seem to have White going to the Wolves at #10. I'm not sure yet whether that would be a good or bad thing.
This is where I hope Rosas makes a difference. But for starters, he had better improve the Wolves scouting department in the next couple weeks. I what we've heard about alignment and philosophy. But at the end of the day, it's about the people doing the analysis and making the recommendations as well as the people making the final decisions. Organizations are only as good as the people working for them. And in the end, success in the NBA turns on scouts and front office executives being good at evaluating players more than it does on philosophy, alignment or any other corporate buzz words you can come up with.
So let the thoughts flow on draft prospects the Wolves should consider - whether we're lucky enough to jump into the top 4 or end up in the more likely 10-12 range.