Minnesota Sports Forum

OK, the dust has settled from the draft and initial flurry of free agency. As we sit here today, the Wolves have added two rookie wings from the draft and a very solid stretch 4, Tolliver, through free agency. Through all of this, the Wolves are losing Belly. The Wolves have a 4-year $110 million offer on the table for Butler that would kick in next year and it's likely the Wolves will tender a max 5-year extension to KAT soon if they haven't already. So let's look at exactly where we are and what the Wolves might still do with the roster the rest of this summer.

WHERE WE'RE AT:

As we sit here today, we have the following 12 players who are (or will soon be signed)for the Wolves 2018-19 roster at the following salaries or salary amounts that count towards the luxury tax threshold:

1. Wiggins - $25,250,000
2. Butler - $20,445,779
3. Teague - $19,000,000
4. Dieng - $15,170,787
5. Gibson - $14,000,000
6. KAT - $7,839,435
7. Tolliver - $5,750,000
8. Patton - $2,667,600
9. Jones - $2,444,053
10. Rose - $1,512,360
11. Okogie - $2,142,360 (rookie salary scale)
12. Bates-Diop - $815,615 (2nd round minimum, but could be more on multi-yr)

TOTAL SALARY = $117,038,230

Here are the hold-over amounts added to our payroll for cap/luxury tax purposes as "dead money:"

1. Cole Aldrich = $1,400,000 (this is less than actual amount because I've stretched it)
2. Kevin Martin = $1,360,305
3. Bazz = $1,238,616 (He was on a two-year deal when we released him last season)

TOTAL = $121,037,151
TAX THRESHOLD = $123,733,000
WOLVES LUXURY TAX SPACE = $2,695,849

WHAT'S NEXT:

Unless I'm wrong about the Bazz dead money, the Wolves can only fill one more roster spot at the vet minimum that would count as $1,512,601 for luxury tax payroll purposes on a 1-year deal. This would leave the Wolves with the League minimum 13 roster players and a payroll $1,183,248 under the luxury threshold, which would not be enough to sign another player.

Since the Wolves can't sign another player with the remaining $1,183,248 and given that the Wolves obviously want to stay under the luxury tax threshold, the question is what the Wolves will do with that remaining $1.183 million. My guess is that they're going to put that towards a higher annual salary on a multi-year deal for Bates Diop. That means the Wolves likely have only two personnel moves left -- (1) signing one more veteran FA, and (2) signing Bates-Diop to a multi-year deal -- probably 2 or 3 years averaging $2 million per year.

WHAT I'D LIKE TO SEE NEXT:

Two things I have in mind:

1. To fill our 13th and final roster spot for this year at the vet minimum, I'd like to see the Wolves sign one of the following in no particular order: Luke Babbit, Corey Brewer, Anthony Brown, Connaughton, Seth Curry, James Ennis III, MGH, O'Quinn, Michael Beasley, or Shumpert. I think my top picks from this group would probably be Corey Brewer and Michael Beasley because because otherwise we'd have to rely on our two rookies to fill in for Wiggins or Butler if either one is out for a stretch. I like James Ennis too. Otherwise, Seth Curry is clearly the best 3-point shooter in this group and would be a nice addition at the vet minimum. Although our roster is now crowded at the PF & C positions, I'd still be interested in O'Quinn since he's a true rim-protector and we don't really have one on the roster. There are available FAs like Wayne Ellington who I'd prefer to those on my list, but I limited my list to those who MIGHT realistically be winning to sign with the Wolves for the League minimum.

2. As a bold move, I'd offer Taj Gibson to the Lakers in a sign-and-trade deal for Julius Randolph. I'd be surprised if Randle ends up re-signing with the Lakers since I don't see them offering him more than 1 year given how they're trying to preserve cap space for next summer. I would think other teams are inclined to offer fairly lucrative multi-year deals that the Lakers wouldn't match. The Wolves might be uniquely positioned to do a deal. In Gibson, the Lakers would be getting a very solid veteran at a position of need -- someone LeBron would probably love to play with and who would help make sure the Lakers make the playoffs, which is likely an imperative for LeBron this next season. Randle could get a lucrative multi-year deal from the Wolves that starts at over $15 million per year as well as the opportunity for a major role as a starting PF on a playoff contender. He'd also get to play with his buddy and fellow Kentucky alum, KAT.

Well, the Lakers just renounced Julius Randle. So much for my sign-and-trade idea. I actually think it was a very viable possibility. But as someone mentioned in another thread, Thibodeau is locked in on all his former Bulls so hard to imagine him even thinking about a deal like the one I suggested. I guess we now wait to see if Noah or Deng gets bought out. :). Seriously, Thibodeau's lack of imagination, along with his obsession with his former Bulls players, is a problem for this franchise at a very critical time.

The Pelicans signed Julius Randle for 2 years at $9 million per year. The Pelicans just got significantly better and didn't break the bank to do it.

The Thunder signed Nerlens Noel at the vet minimum. He's still young and a genuine rim-protector. With Roberson retuning from injury and the addition of Noel, the Thunder got better.

The Wolves have one more vet minimum salary to give out, bringing the roster to the Leaague minimum of 13, before they hit the luxury tax threshold. Since I don't see any trades in the offing and expecting any positive creativity from Thibs is futile, the only remaining question is who the Wolves will sign to fill our final 13th roster spot. I'm betting it will be Corey Brewer. Why? Because he loves it here. Actually, his girlfriend is from here and he has a lot of friends locally. Also, as Thorpe said, he's one of those guys mentally tough enough to play for Thibodeau.

If not Corey Brewer, I'd bet on Thibodeau bringing back MGH. It will be like last year near the end of the summer when Thibodeau ended up re-signing Bazz as his finale to the Wolves offseason.

lipoli390 wrote:Well, the Lakers just renounced Julius Randle. So much for my sign-and-trade idea. I actually think it was a very viable possibility. But as someone mentioned in another thread, Thibodeau is locked in on all his former Bulls so hard to imagine him even thinking about a deal like the one I suggested. I guess we now wait to see if Noah or Deng gets bought out. :). Seriously, Thibodeau's lack of imagination, along with his obsession with his former Bulls players, is a problem for this franchise at a very critical time.

What teams ever trade away their starting PF and significant contributor to a playoff team for a guy who could barely get on the court for his own garbage team? These are the kinds of posts that just aren't fair to Thibs because they are not reasonable and rational decisions an NBA GM would ever make in our situation. Good GM's don't try to raise the team's ceiling at the expense of trading away foundation holding up the floor.

khans2k5 wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:Well, the Lakers just renounced Julius Randle. So much for my sign-and-trade idea. I actually think it was a very viable possibility. But as someone mentioned in another thread, Thibodeau is locked in on all his former Bulls so hard to imagine him even thinking about a deal like the one I suggested. I guess we now wait to see if Noah or Deng gets bought out. :). Seriously, Thibodeau's lack of imagination, along with his obsession with his former Bulls players, is a problem for this franchise at a very critical time.

What teams ever trade away their starting PF and significant contributor to a playoff team for a guy who could barely get on the court for his own garbage team? These are the kinds of posts that just aren't fair to Thibs because they are not reasonable and rational decisions an NBA GM would ever make in our situation. Good GM's don't try to raise the team's ceiling at the expense of trading away foundation holding up the floor.

Khans, I love Gibson too and thought he had a terrific season. But are you really saying you would prefer to have 33-year-old Gibson at $14M than 23-y-o Randle at $9M? Randle outscored, outrebounded and out-assisted Gibson last year per game despite playing 7 minutes per game less, and is developing a reputation as a good defender. And you get all that for $5 million less in a body that's 10 years younger. What am I missing here?

Lip -- the Bazz money is wrong. And your stretch of Cole's money is wrong - you took 2/3s when it should only be 1/3. But let's assume the Wolves do not stretch that amount (we have not seen anything to say they did it). My math says that Tolliver at 5.75 mil and 2 more vet min salaries puts the Wolves at 210K under the luxury tax. The 5.75 number is no coincidence!

Trade Jeff Teague for a bit of cap relief and a bench 3 and D player. A combination of Jones and Rose is adequate to man the point for a season.

KiwiMatt wrote:Trade Jeff Teague for a bit of cap relief and a bench 3 and D player. A combination of Jones and Rose is adequate to man the point for a season.

Absolutely not. Not only do I think Tyus Jones isn't quite ready to be a starter night in and night out, but I don't want Rose making many decisions with the ball.

longstrangetrip wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:Well, the Lakers just renounced Julius Randle. So much for my sign-and-trade idea. I actually think it was a very viable possibility. But as someone mentioned in another thread, Thibodeau is locked in on all his former Bulls so hard to imagine him even thinking about a deal like the one I suggested. I guess we now wait to see if Noah or Deng gets bought out. :). Seriously, Thibodeau's lack of imagination, along with his obsession with his former Bulls players, is a problem for this franchise at a very critical time.

What teams ever trade away their starting PF and significant contributor to a playoff team for a guy who could barely get on the court for his own garbage team? These are the kinds of posts that just aren't fair to Thibs because they are not reasonable and rational decisions an NBA GM would ever make in our situation. Good GM's don't try to raise the team's ceiling at the expense of trading away foundation holding up the floor.

Khans, I love Gibson too and thought he had a terrific season. But are you really saying you would prefer to have 33-year-old Gibson at $14M than 23-y-o Randle at $9M? Randle outscored, outrebounded and out-assisted Gibson last year per game despite playing 7 minutes per game less, and is developing a reputation as a good defender. And you get all that for $5 million less in a body that's 10 years younger. What am I missing here?

There's not a GM in the league trying to make the playoffs who would see how they both played last year and think that's a good deal. One guy contributed greatly to a playoff team and the other couldn't even start on his lottery team. This is a deal that's too much on paper and not in reality. You are falling for a stats on a bad team guy and not factoring fit.

Randle is not a good defender and he's a double double guy. That's the same as Towns except Towns is 100x better at that. Gibson is a glue guy who's our best PnR defender. You're trading in what little defense we have in the frountcourt on the whole team for more points and rebounds on a team full of guys who get points and rebounds. Is Randle a good double-double guy as the 5th option on the floor? That math doesn't add up. On paper sure it looks great. Save money and get double-doubles. In reality there's one ball and he needs it to score and we have 4 better scorers on the court with him so what does he give you?

Yeah, I'm a little bit with Khansy on this one. Randle seems better on paper than in reality.