Page 1 of 6
Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:50 pm
by TheFuture
So the trade happened. I'm not so upbeat about it like many others. Yes, we should (have to) make the playoffs, but then what? We are not beating GSW for sure, I'd bet we don't beat the Spurs or Rockets in the next two years, and we are not better than Cleveland either.
My view was that our ceiling was through the roof with a trajectory to come to fruition when the other elites start to fall, and with a floor being a consistent 3-8 seed. So now we jumpstart to making the playoffs for the first time in forever, and guess what, we become a 3-8 seed. Wonderful.
This makes sense on many levels, sure. Make the playoffs, get the fair weather fans interested, make money. The stars just don't align for me.
Our two core players will be 24 when Jimmy is up for a new contract. This is a much larger risk than many are admitting. What if he actually does leave? We are left with a bench, a split starting lineup, and not much in terms of maneuvering. (Rubio is likely gone as well)
Love it now if you want, but I honestly believe it was a shortsighted move. Save a job, make some money, and eventually enter another rebuilding process. Patience was thwarted, and most are too easy to accept it.
I've still followed my wolves for the last 13 years and bought into contention over just "making it". Now we should accept just making the playoffs?? I'm a championship or bust guy. End up second and you lost.
I'm 90% against this trade. Convince me otherwise.
P.S. don't feed me the winning culture BS. What were the Warriors before they actually developed internally and started WINNING...
Re: Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:55 pm
by slimcalhoun27 [enjin:6640095]
You weren't a Championship or bust guy before this trade if you didn't think something significant needed to happen. Stop with the madness. It was the perfect time to shit or get off the pot and Thibs owned the Bulls this time around.
Butler is more then a player, Thibs just brought in proof his system works and Jimmy gives the Wolves a marketing tool no Dunn, Nor Lavine could ever bring the organization.
Also, playoffs make money, TV time brings in revenue, winning breeds winners and KAT and Wiggins are more apt to stay if that is the case. No brainer is my opinion to make a move now!
Re: Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:02 am
by TheFuture
slimcalhoun27 wrote:You weren't a Championship or bust guy before this trade if you didn't think something significant needed to happen. Stop with the madness. It was the perfect time to shit or get off the pot and Thibs owned the Bulls this time around.
Butler is more then a player, Thibs just brought in proof his system works and Jimmy gives the Wolves a marketing tool no Dunn, Nor Lavine could ever bring the organization.
I fully believed in the path we were on. KAT, Wiggins, LaVine, Dunn, #7 (sat or traded for more), Dieng, Rubio + 30 mil was more than enough to reach the dang playoffs in the next two years, and plenty talent to progress into more in 3-4 years.. I was fully committed to riding it out. I'm not excited about this move even if Butler is a damn hell of a player. This move is one you make when you're an actual perennial playoff team on the cusp of contending, You make this trade to get into the playoffs and you seal your damn fate as JUST a playoff team.
Re: Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:17 am
by TheFuture
As for your edit, those two are under contract whether they like it or not for 5 and 6 more years. We were finally on a true competitive trajectory as a small market with three (in my mind 4 in Dunn + a potential 5th this year), thanks to Flip. Thibs bit the hook two years too soon. The reasons are easy to understand.
Re: Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:25 am
by Lipoli390
Future -- Along with you, I'm one of very few Wolves fans who doesn't like this deal. I don't hate it, but I don't like it. Thibs said he likes that Butler is 28 and not in his 30s. I still don't like that he's 6 years older than our other two core players and, more importantly, I'm concerned about the fact that his contract is up in 2 years. I also think Zach is going to be a star and Dunn looks like he'll be an elite defender. We could have drafted Zach Collins at #7, who JVG thinks will be a star.
You can see I'm in agreement with you. But I'm not totally down on this deal and I'm feeling better about it as time goes on. So as a fellow naysayer, let me try to convine you of why this could be a great deal for the Wolves. Butler isn't just a really good veteran player. He's an elite defender who checks nearly every statistical box on both sides of the ball, averaging last season over 20 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals per game. And most respected basketball experts agree he's a top 15 player and perhaps a top 5 two-way player. His numbers support that view. He also brings great competitiveness and intensity, two things that seemed to be lacking on this team last season. He knows Thibs and can serve as an on-court and locker room Thibs interpreter for the young guys who may have tuned out a bit last season. While I'm concerned about the age mismatch over the long term, he could easily continue playing at his current peak level for another 5 years. Regarding the 2-year window on his contract, winning will be our best and only defense. At a minimum, we need to make the playoffs next season and advance in the playoffs the following season. Otherwise, Butler likely leaves and this thing collapses into another rebuild. So the pressure is on Thibs to fill in what is now a very shallow roster with even less depth than last year. Bring in the right players and we could be on the verge of a great 4-6 year run.
Re: Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:29 am
by TRKO [enjin:12664595]
The team absolutely needs to start winning now. You aren't guaranteed the health of any of the young guys. Look at Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, Brandon Roy, Derrick Rose. With Butler as the leader and best player on the team, Towns and Wiggins make great assets around him for a winning team. As long as Wiggins and Towns are a part of the core, the window is always massive. Yeah it would be nice for the young guys to grow together and peak at the right time, but they weren't playing competitive basketball last year. Establishing a winning culture now is more important than peaking at the right time. The again injuries, drama, and regression could hit the Warriors. It's stupid to concede anything to them.
Re: Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:38 am
by TheFuture
lipoli390 wrote:Future -- Along with you, I'm one of very few Wolves fans who doesn't like this deal. I don't hate it, but I don't like it. Thibs said he likes that Butler is 28 and not in his 30s. I still don't like that he's 6 years older than our other two core players and, more importantly, I'm concerned about the fact that his contract is up in 2 years. I also think Zach is going to be a star and Dunn looks like he'll be an elite defender. We could have drafted Zach Collins at #7, who JVG thinks will be a star.
You can see I'm in agreement with you. But I'm not totally down on this deal and I'm feeling better about it as time goes on. So as a fellow naysayer, let me try to convine you of why this could be a great deal for the Wolves. Butler isn't just a really good veteran player. He's an elite defender who checks nearly every statistical box on both sides of the ball, averaging last season over 20 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals per game. And most respected basketball experts agree he's a top 15 player and perhaps a top 5 two-way player. His numbers support that view. He also brings great competitiveness and intensity, two things that seemed to be lacking on this team last season. He knows Thibs and can serve as an on-court and locker room Thibs interpreter for the young guys who may have tuned out a bit last season. While I'm concerned about the age mismatch over the long term, he could easily continue playing at his current peak level for another 5 years. Regarding the 2-year window on his contract, winning will be our best and only defense. At a minimum, we need to make the playoffs next season and advance in the playoffs the following season. Otherwise, Butler likely leaves and this thing collapses into another rebuild. So the pressure is on Thibs to fill in what is now a very shallow roster with even less depth than last year. Bring in the right players and we could be on the verge of a great 4-6 year run.
I'm in no disagreeance with anyone on the level Butler is at. He is a top 15 player, no doubt. He is a tough SOB, has playoff experience, and has a relationship with Thibs. He also is no dummy. We cannot offer him a super max, he is redundant with Wiggins offensively, he was not a deterrent in the clashing with Thibs, has shown as recent as last season that he calls out teammates prematurely, and has a two year contract.
If he sees GSW are untouchable, then why not seek a more palatable area?
Butler, appease us by killing yourself to get us into a 4th-8th seed, where we ultimately do not have the shooting or depth to carry us out of the second round. Speculation some may say, but it is a realistic outlook moreso.
The West is tough, and doesn't seem to be getting easier. Our best option was to ride the dang waves and overcome when actually feasible.
Re: Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:48 am
by TheFuture
TRKO wrote:The team absolutely needs to start winning now. You aren't guaranteed the health of any of the young guys. Look at Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, Brandon Roy, Derrick Rose. With Butler as the leader and best player on the team, Towns and Wiggins make great assets around him for a winning team. As long as Wiggins and Towns are a part of the core, the window is always massive. Yeah it would be nice for the young guys to grow together and peak at the right time, but they weren't playing competitive basketball last year. Establishing a winning culture now is more important than peaking at the right time. The again injuries, drama, and regression could hit the Warriors. It's stupid to concede anything to them.
I don't know how to further explain this...
The time has passed where you can add a nice player to some potential nice players and expect to win. Right now is the time to collect assets, hope multiple pan out as stars, and add to it at the last turn. You need to be homegrown with 2-3 stars and then add your role players. Butler fucks the window as he declines with the true contenders. Our time was now to add good role players to a stud in KAT, 2 potential studs in Wiggins and LaVine (Dunn in my opinion as well), and a #7 pick. Instead we mortgaged our future and have LESS money to fill MORE holes. It was a bad move.
If Butler stays and we contend I will gladly eat crow, but I'd bet this never happens. Being a treadmill team is okay for some, not for me.
Re: Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:11 am
by thedoper
If you believe that Dunn and Lavine are better long term assets than Butler there is no convincing you at this point. Winning may help some of the ails you are feeling for a while I hope. Nothing is guaranteed in any business. I like that we gained a surefire player for some of our long term potential, without parting with our two best assets. In our situation it was going to be a chore to keep our core together either way. Winning and making some noise in the playoffs has to be part of developing the momentum to build a complete team. GS made moves around their core long before they became what they were. They acquired Bogut, they signed Iggy. There were naysayers linked to those moves as well I am sure. But I believe this is the sort of tweaking that is necessary for building a great product long term. Thibs doesn't strike me as the kind of person who is going to ignore the risks in this situation, and as you point out they are there. But there were legit risks in relying on the development of Dunn and Lavine. We could have kept them and equally trapped as a 3-8 seed. Or we could have had another year missing the playoffs and started seeing disgruntled young players. On court success is always going to give you more options. We have to stay diligent in scouting, keep angling for young assets to round out the core. Allow yourself a little joy, especially in a sports environment where we have had so little of it for ages.
Re: Convince Me Otherwise
Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:40 am
by TheFuture
thedoper wrote:If you believe that Dunn and Lavine are better long term assets than Butler there is no convincing you at this point. Winning may help some of the ails you are feeling for a while I hope. Nothing is guaranteed in any business. I like that we gained a surefire player for some of our long term potential, without parting with our two best assets. In our situation it was going to be a chore to keep our core together either way. Winning and making some noise in the playoffs has to be part of developing the momentum to build a complete team. GS made moves around their core long before they became what they were. They acquired Bogut, they signed Iggy. There were naysayers linked to those moves as well I am sure. But I believe this is the sort of tweaking that is necessary for building a great product long term. Thibs doesn't strike me as the kind of person who is going to ignore the risks in this situation, and as you point out they are there. But there were legit risks in relying on the development of Dunn and Lavine. We could have kept them and equally trapped as a 3-8 seed. Or we could have had another year missing the playoffs and started seeing disgruntled young players. On court success is always going to give you more options. We have to stay diligent in scouting, keep angling for young assets to round out the core. Allow yourself a little joy, especially in a sports environment where we have had so little of it for ages.
What core players did they move for bogut and iggy?
Do I believe LaVine and Dunn are better LONG TERM assets than Butler? I'd be stupid to believe otherwise.
Butler will help us win, there is no doubt. But I believe we were on our way to competing for a 6th- 8th spot this year anyhow with a top pick and 30 mil to spend (where we could sign a player without giving up ANY assets to become a 6th-8th seed and build a culture) Now we have a dleague front court guy (who I do really like) and 15-20 mil to fill 4 holes rather than 2-3 holes with 30 mil (Remember we still are completely capped out after this season). This blatant optimism just doesn't add up for me.
We are not LA, NY, Miami, etc. etc. We build organically or we fail. It's too simple. This is a damn pleasing move by Thibs for both personal (safety net) and universal (fan base and Glen) reasons. It's obvious.