Page 1 of 3
Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:52 am
by Carlos Danger
Time to over analyze and over react to 0-2 start. Here's the Personal Efficiency Ratings (PER) after two games:
24.3 - Wiggins
24.2 - Dieng
19.4 - KAT
19.4 - LaVine
14.7 - Bazz
14.4 - Dunn
9.1 - Aldrich
8,8 - Rubio
2.7 - Rush
(4.7) - Bjelica
DNP - Jones
DNP - Lucas
DNP - Pek
DNP - Payne
DNP - Hill
My early thoughts:
1.) Our concerns about the bench have carried over into the season. Bazz has had one bad and one decent game. Dunn has held his own. But Bjelica and Rush haven't done much yet.
2.) Starting five still look pretty dang good on paper. Of the starters, Rubio has had an individually slow start. Not a lot of free throw attempts or assists so far for him. KAT's rebounding is way down. Wiggins/LaVine are off to good starts offensively and Dieng has been terrific averaging 13.0 points and 13.5 rebounds a game.
3.) As expected, we're not seeing any playing time for Tyus, Payne, Hill or Lucas. I'm assuming that's the way it will be all year barring blow outs and/or injuries. And based on what we saw from Payne/Hill/Lucas in the pre-season, that's probably a good thing. I feel bad for Tyus though...
4.) Last year we started 2-0. I almost prefer to start poorly and improve vs. getting our hopes up and laying an egg.
Re: Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2016 8:48 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Here are two interesting stats in terms of our team ranking:
Offensive Rating - 7th
Defensive Rating - 29th
So after all the hand-wringing about late game offensive execution, the reality is we aren't getting stops either. That's just as important. Even in that disastrous 3rd quarter where we only scored 12 points, the bigger problem is that we gave up 31! It's one thing to go cold for a spell offensively, but then you've got to buckle down and defend.
Re: Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2016 9:08 pm
by kekgeek
Q12543 wrote:Here are two interesting stats in terms of our team ranking:
Offensive Rating - 7th
Defensive Rating - 29th
So after all the hand-wringing about late game offensive execution, the reality is we aren't getting stops either. That's just as important. Even in that disastrous 3rd quarter where we only scored 12 points, the bigger problem is that we gave up 31! It's one thing to go cold for a spell offensively, but then you've got to buckle down and defend.
To be fair though you night have to fact check me I believe we had 7 turnovers that quarter and 5 live ball turnovers
Re: Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:59 am
by Carlos Danger
Q12543 wrote:Here are two interesting stats in terms of our team ranking:
Offensive Rating - 7th
Defensive Rating - 29th
So after all the hand-wringing about late game offensive execution, the reality is we aren't getting stops either. That's just as important. Even in that disastrous 3rd quarter where we only scored 12 points, the bigger problem is that we gave up 31! It's one thing to go cold for a spell offensively, but then you've got to buckle down and defend.
Yep. Not the start Thibbs wanted - that's for sure. It was really the same problem Mitchell had last year. Big offense with starting five and shitty defense. That said, the two games I've seen they "looked" better on defense than last year even though the results haven't been great. By that I mean guys seem to be switching and closing out without getting lost and leaving wide open shots. It's two games. I'll give them at least three before starting the "Bring back Sam Mitchell" thread :-).
Re: Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:33 am
by MikkeMan
I think one problem with the defense has been that they have given too much open or even wide open three pointers. Based on stats from NBA.com Memphis had 13 wide open and 9 open three point attempts and Sacramento had 12 wide open and 11 open three pointers. That is way too much to be a good defensive team.
I think that the reason for big amount of open three pointers is that we don't have players that could have matched well enough against strong post players like Cousins, Randolph or Gasol. Those guys committed double teams and that often resulted open three point attempts for opponent. I would have liked to see little more minutes from Aldrich since he seems to be our only big whom doesn't get pushed so easily. Maybe those minutes could have come at the cost of Bjelica. Even tough I like his game a lot, Sacramento or Memphis might not be the best teams for him from match up point of view.
Re: Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:40 am
by MikkeMan
Has anyone else yet noticed this ESPN article that gives pretty positive view about Wolves potential to defend against Golden State?
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17904295/the-switching-hour-nba-defensive-versatilityhttp://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17904295/the-switching-hour-nba-defensive-versatility
Re: Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:36 am
by Monster
Mikkeman wrote:I think one problem with the defense has been that they have given too much open or even wide open three pointers. Based on stats from NBA.com Memphis had 13 wide open and 9 open three point attempts and Sacramento had 12 wide open and 11 open three pointers. That is way too much to be a good defensive team.
I think that the reason for big amount of open three pointers is that we don't have players that could have matched well enough against strong post players like Cousins, Randolph or Gasol. Those guys committed double teams and that often resulted open three point attempts for opponent. I would have liked to see little more minutes from Aldrich since he seems to be our only big whom doesn't get pushed so easily. Maybe those minutes could have come at the cost of Bjelica. Even tough I like his game a lot, Sacramento or Memphis might not be the best teams for him from match up point of view.
Actually in Memphis it was more about the big guys taking and making 3's than them creating space for other guys because of double teams.
Re: Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:20 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Yes, I remember reading this. It's all well and good in theory - and we did have that signature road game late last season where we were constantly switching - but as we've seen early in the year, we still have a long ways to go defensively. Perhaps we'll do better against more finesse teams like Golden State.
Speaking of Golden State, I see that Klay Thompson is losing a few shots to Durant, not unexpected of course. That dude seems like he has a pretty big ego. I wonder how long he's willing to play 3rd banana on that squad (in terms of scoring) after emerging last year as probably the best SG in the league.
Re: Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:30 am
by AbeVigodaLive
Q12543 wrote:
Yes, I remember reading this. It's all well and good in theory - and we did have that signature road game late last season where we were constantly switching - but as we've seen early in the year, we still have a long ways to go defensively. Perhaps we'll do better against more finesse teams like Golden State.
Speaking of Golden State, I see that Klay Thompson is losing a few shots to Durant, not unexpected of course. That dude seems like he has a pretty big ego. I wonder how long he's willing to play 3rd banana on that squad (in terms of scoring) after emerging last year as probably the best SG in the league.
Egos are a problem for every NBA team at some point or another. (Yes, even the Wolves, eventually)
But I don't know whether Thompson is going to be the problem... or if it'll be Draymond Green. After all, it was Green who despite being the face of unselfish basketball last season... was behind the scenes chasing triple doubles and whining about shots.
And ripping Klay Thompson. A lot. In any event, Kerr has his hands full with that team. Chemistry still matters in the NBA.
And that's a wonderful thing. Take that venture capitalists and business analytics guys and Excel spreadsheet nerds!
Re: Let's crunch the numbers
Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:17 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
AbeVigodaLive wrote:Q12543 wrote:
Yes, I remember reading this. It's all well and good in theory - and we did have that signature road game late last season where we were constantly switching - but as we've seen early in the year, we still have a long ways to go defensively. Perhaps we'll do better against more finesse teams like Golden State.
Speaking of Golden State, I see that Klay Thompson is losing a few shots to Durant, not unexpected of course. That dude seems like he has a pretty big ego. I wonder how long he's willing to play 3rd banana on that squad (in terms of scoring) after emerging last year as probably the best SG in the league.
Egos are a problem for every NBA team at some point or another. (Yes, even the Wolves, eventually)
But I don't know whether Thompson is going to be the problem... or if it'll be Draymond Green. After all, it was Green who despite being the face of unselfish basketball last season... was behind the scenes chasing triple doubles and whining about shots.
And ripping Klay Thompson. A lot. In any event, Kerr has his hands full with that team.
Chemistry still matters in the NBA.
And that's a wonderful thing. Take that venture capitalists and business analytics guys and Excel spreadsheet nerds!
It does, but I sometimes wonder how much. When you have that big of a collection of talent assembled all in their peak years, it can overcome a lot of conflict and clashes behind the scenes. There are countless stories of organizational success - in business and sports - that straddled between brilliance and dysfunctional chaos.
My hope is less about how potential discord could affect their hopes for a title in the near term and more about their ability to stay together over the long run. I kind of wonder if Klay wants to strike out on his own at some point.