Minnesota Sports Forum

I was browsing FiveThirtyEight and was reminded of their various projection models and categorization of players in relation to others. I thought it would be interesting to assemble the Timberwolves' players projections into one thread as a reference or guide moving forward.

For clarity, FiveThirtyEight incorporates a player's past three seasons averaged together and identifies similar players in history in order to forecast what future production might look like for that player in the form of Wins Above Replacement. With that value, they also project that player's five-year market value*, which could be helpful when discussing future player contracts, and what category of player he falls into given his production -- All-Star, Starter, Rotation Player, Scrub, etc.

*I do not know if FiveThirtyEight is accounting for future salary cap increases or not, but my gut feeling is that their model is based off of the current cap numbers.

I'll format the following as such:

Position: Player Name - Category - 2023 WAR Projection - Five-Year Market Value

Starting Five:
PG: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/dangelo-russell/D'Angelo Russell - Good Starter - 4.8 WAR - $86.0M
SG: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/anthony-edwards/Anthony Edwards - All-Star - 9.4 WAR - $239.5M
SF: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/jaden-mcdaniels/Jaden McDaniels - Rotation Player - 2.7 WAR - $69.5M
PF: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/karl-anthony-towns/Karl-Anthony Towns - Borderline All-Star - 7.1 WAR - $128.0M
C: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/rudy-gobert/Rudy Gobert - All-Star - 10.1 WAR - $179.0M

Bench:
PG: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/jordan-mclaughlin/Jordan McLaughlin - Rotation Player - 1.5 WAR - $35.3M
SG: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/jaylen-nowell/Jaylen Nowell - Rotation Player - 1.2 WAR - $37.7M
SF: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/taurean-prince/Taurean Prince - Rotation Player - 0.8 WAR - $17.3M
PF: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/kyle-anderson/Kyle Anderson - Rotation Player - 2.2 WAR - $33.8M
C: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/naz-reid/Naz Reid - Rotation Player - 0.8 WAR - $27.2M

Deep Bench:
SG: Bryn Forbes - Scrub - -0.2 WAR - $5.8M
SG: Austin Rivers - Scrub - 0.2 WAR - $7.9M
SG: P.J. Dozier - Rotation Player - 0.8 WAR - $23.9M
SF: Wendell Moore Jr. - OK Prospect - 0.1 WAR - $29.0M
SF: Josh Minott - Good Prospect - 0.2 WAR - $31.5M
SF: A.J. Lawson - Marginal Prospect - 0.6 WAR - $25.1M
SF: C.J. Elleby - Project - -0.4 WAR - $6.1M
PF: Nathan Knight - Scrub - 0.4 WAR - $16.9M
PF: Eric Paschall - Scrub - -0.2 WAR - $6.3M
C: Luka Garza - Project - 0.3 WAR - $16.7M

Two things quickly stand out to me about these projections.

1. Jaden McDaniels and Jaylen Nowell are not favored by this model because their past couple of seasons have been statistically pedestrian. Rather, they are more valued because of their potential. Hopefully we see some of that translate to the court, and I think we will.

As it pertains to Nowell, I've mentioned four-years, $40-million as possible extension terms for him at some point. This model would illustrate that offer as too high, but I'm expecting Nowell to have a mini-breakout of sorts. Lord help us if this situation plays out similarly to Jalen Brunson's last year.

2. This model is astoundingly high on Anthony Edwards this season -- so much so, in fact, that I have to disagree with it. I do not think he'll be near that 10.0 WAR mark. I think a more realistic projection would have him placed in the 5.0 - 7.0 range, but that's just my opinion.

Another thing that stood out to me is how the FiveThirtyEight model projects the rest of Karl-Anthony Towns' prime to play out.

As noted above, they project him as a borderline All-Star in 2023, which is a little unfair, but they basically see him as "Good Starter" level just two years from now. That's wild to me. In 2025 he'll only be 29-years old. I don't see anything within his game that I would expect to fall off significantly over the next five years, especially considering his main skill is one that typically ages well in the NBA -- perimeter shooting.

And for those that were curious, Rudy Gobert is projected to play near an "All-Star" level for the next three seasons before settling into "Good Starter" level three years after that! I sincerely hope that's the case and he does so in Minnesota.

Basically, Gobert is statistically-projected to age slower/better than Towns despite being several years older already. Does rim protection and rebounding prowess age more gracefully than perimeter shooting? I guess we'll see.

Yeah, seems like folks might be getting a bit ahead of themselves with Ant. I think his trajectory is going to slow down a bit, as the Wolves have such a deep team and lots of other weapons. Hopefully he really focuses on defense this year, as that will help turn him into a legit superstar when his offensive game fully matures in his mid-20s.