Minnesota Sports Forum

So Nate Silver debuted the CARMELO projections for NBA players last year, and his algorithms were relatively accurate in predicting how well NBA players would perform. CARMELO also extrapolates projections in +/- and WARP (wins above replacement player) over the next several seasons. It also seems to suggest market value, though I'm not sure how it arrives at that conclusion.

In other words, SMART COMPUTER THINGY HERE TELLS US HOW GOOD GUYS WILL BE AND HOW MUCH THEY SHOULD BE WORTH IN $.

Just click the link and search for Wolves players. Then discuss. Interesting stuff.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/

For example:
Towns is already labelled an ALL-STAR and is so far and away our best player it's not even funny, and his WARP projects to be around 10 or 11 in a couple years, which is great. There's volatility in the projection there though, so the computer thinks he could become much better or not. It says Towns is already worth almost 30 million and it's somehow suggesting that will increase. Somebody must have forgotten to tell CARMELO about the max salary in the CBA.

Rubio is arguably our second-best player, listed as BORDERLINE ALL-STAR, and has a WARP projection of around 5 the next few years. Says he's worth about 20 million per year. Go to town, Pork Chop.

Dieng is right there with Rubio about 5 WARP, listed as GOOD STARTER, both have already WARPs of 5. This projects him to tail off, but I think that's because of his draft position. The algorithm seems to give a lot of credence to draft position, strangely. It also seems to regress to the mean a bit. So LeBron is supposed to tail off (age), and Curry too (can't statistically be THAT much better than the projections). So I think the projections are a little conservative in some cases, and I think Dieng could be there. It still thinks Dieng is worth 20 million per year.

Aldrich looks pretty decent, had a 3 WARP last year, projected to decline a bit, again, probably regression to the mean stuff. But he looks like a KEY ROLE PLAYER, according to CARMELO. Says he's worth 12-13 million per year, so that was a good deal according to CARMELO.

Dunn (yes, they're even projecting rookies) projects really well, perhaps up above a 5 WARP in a couple years, and he's labeled a GREAT PROSPECT. CARMELO did pretty well with rookies last year, so let's hope that holds true in this case.

**Now things get interesting, because CARMELO clearly doesn't value Wiggins and LaVine as much as this board does.

Wiggins projects, well, ok, up above 3 WARP in a few years, and it labels him an UP-AND-COMER who should improve this year, but his chart is not very impressive so far at all, and even with the projected improvement, it's not that impressive. He didn't even break even in WARP this year, and did not improve much in this regard from year 1 to year 2. His +/- was -2 last year but he projects to get that almost to 0 starting this year and next. Take it for what it's worth but this program is not that bullish on Wiggins. According to this, Wiggins was actually worth -.6 million last year. And yes, that is a negative sign. Says he'll eventually be worth 20 million but not for 3 or 4 years, and I suspect some of this is regression to the mean for #1 picks. It projects that Wiggins will improve pretty significantly this year, +2.8 WARP, but after that he doesn't project to improve as much. In other words, CARMELO would trade Wiggins for Butler for sure!

LaVine cracked 0 in WARP this year, to .8, and his trajectory from year 1 to 2 is clearly pretty good. He's projected to keep improving but then to plateau around WARP of 2. That's again probably his draft position and regression to the mean. The improvement from year 1 to 2 gives reason to hope, but CARMELO labels LaVine a PROJECT, which doesn't sound good! Still, having watched this guy last year after the break, it's clear he COULD continue his improving trajectory, and in terms of WARP, he was already better than Wiggins. I suspect there is more volatility in LaVine's projection than average. CARMELO does not see a max contract in Zach's future.

Bazz is listed as OFFENSIVE SPECIALIST who has been below WARP and projects to float right at 0, but who projects to have a negative +/- throughout his career. According to this, Bazz should have paid the Wolves 7.9 million last year!

Bjelica doesn't look too bad, 1.4 WARP, a listed as a rotation player.

Tyus looks pretty flat and is listed as PROJECT, just cracking 0 WARP in a couple years.

Payne and Rush (sorry to rain on your parade) as listed as SCRUBs.

So, check these out. What do you guys think?

EDIT: Correction, CARMELO says Aldrich is worth 12-13 million. So that 7 million per is not bad.

I'm glad this computer isn't in charge of contract negotiations.

I wish they had named this something other than Carmelo. I ways think "Who cares what Carmelo thinks...ah dang it."

Thanks Drew. I'm still in his camp on Wiggins, don't think he's a lock to be an all star. But I do like him to be a good, reliable starter at 15/7/5 whilst guarding their best wing.

BizarroJerry wrote:Thanks Drew. I'm still in his camp on Wiggins, don't think he's a lock to be an all star. But I do like him to be a good, reliable starter at 15/7/5 whilst guarding their best wing.

Now I know why you call yourself Bizarro! That is one bizarre line you are predicting for Wiggins, as he's already higher on the PPG side, but he'd need to double his rebounding and assisting which seems unlikely. I could see him at 24/5/4 some day, which would be really, really good and definitely worthy of an all-star game or three.

Q12543 wrote:

BizarroJerry wrote:Thanks Drew. I'm still in his camp on Wiggins, don't think he's a lock to be an all star. But I do like him to be a good, reliable starter at 15/7/5 whilst guarding their best wing.

Now I know why you call yourself Bizarro! That is one bizarre line you are predicting for Wiggins, as he's already higher on the PPG side, but he'd need to double his rebounding and assisting which seems unlikely. I could see him at 24/5/4 some day, which would be really, really good and definitely worthy of an all-star game or three.

:thumb:

I also found it interesting that one of Wiggins' top comparables from the CARMELO system was.....Carmelo.

I was also disappointed to see that KAT didn't break the tool when I entered his name. I was kind of hoping it would crash the system because it was not capable of calculating his CARMELO rating.

Q12543 wrote:I also found it interesting that one of Wiggins' top comparables from the CARMELO system was.....Carmelo.

I was also disappointed to see that KAT didn't break the tool when I entered his name. I was kind of hoping it would crash the system because it was not capable of calculating his CARMELO rating.

:) KAT does have a high volatility projection. It seems to suggest he COULD get as high as the upper teens in WARP, which would be Durant, Westbrook type of territory. Again though, it's a guessing computer. It's fun to play with, but who knows what could happen?

Q12543 wrote:

BizarroJerry wrote:Thanks Drew. I'm still in his camp on Wiggins, don't think he's a lock to be an all star. But I do like him to be a good, reliable starter at 15/7/5 whilst guarding their best wing.

Now I know why you call yourself Bizarro! That is one bizarre line you are predicting for Wiggins, as he's already higher on the PPG side, but he'd need to double his rebounding and assisting which seems unlikely. I could see him at 24/5/4 some day, which would be really, really good and definitely worthy of an all-star game or three.

Haha, I realize my numbers are off, but that's what I'd like to see.