Minnesota Sports Forum

Negative Nellie...

So almost all of us dig Josh Okogie. He plays with some much-needed energy. He's made some shots, even some impressive, momentum-swinging dunks. And even some nice dump-off passes. He's been fun. He's been a nice surprise and I like watching him play.

As such, we've praised him often. In fact, I've seen many posters suggest he could be an All Star player someday. OK. Maybe. I guess. But, just for fun, let's not view him as one of the league's 24 best players just yet. Let's rank him among his peers... the rookies... (17 games minimum)

FG: 37.1% (#26)
3FG: 25.4% (#21)
TS: 47.0% (#32)
Win Shares: 0.3 (#24)
Points (per 36): 12.2 (#23)
Rebounds (per 36): 5.7 (#16)
Assists (per 36): 1.9 (#21)
Steals (per 36): 1.6 (#6)

Considering he was picked #20... is he even significantly outperforming his draft position? I like the guy, too. But the odds of him being an All Star are remote. The odds may not even line up for him as a year-in-year-out every game starter. One positive thing I've seen from him statistically is his VORP. I mean... he's still a below average replacement player there too (-0.1) but it's not bad for a rookie. His number is almost entirely fueled by defense where he is 0.0 DBPM... compared to his offensive struggles (-2.8 OBPM).


[Note: I went back and compared him to corey brewer as a rookie. there are legit similarities there... but okogie has outperformed brewer mostly across the board so far.]

Yeah trying to find Josh more minutes is not the solution for the way this team is playing right now.

I agree that more minutes for Josh isn't necessarily the solution for the way the team is playing right now. But he needs more minutes because he MIGHT be part of the solution for the future after this season.

It's a good reality check. I thought he was straightening out his shot a few weeks ago, but he's regressed of late in that department.

As for the Corey Brewer comparison, keep in mind Corey had three years of college experience and was a year older as a rookie, so that plays even more into Josh's favor when looking at these two guys.

Okogie is also having a better rookie year than Dunn, a player somewhat similar in his hard-nosed approach to the game. While Dunn is by no means a great player yet, he has continued to show improvement (when healthy) AND he also came into the NBA a lot older than Okogie.

I think two things give me hope that Okogie can keep improving. First, he checks all the boxes as being elite in terms of his physical and athletic profile for a SG. Strength, length, and vertical. He can probably switch onto every position defensively and hold his own, except for a traditional Center.

Second, he works his ass off and a lot of the stuff he does won't show up in those stats. He creates a ton of turnovers, not all of which are steals. He's drawn 20 offensive fouls this year for example, by far the most on our team. That's a really meaningful stat since it completely snuffs out a possession for the other team.

Those two things alone will keep him in the league a long time as a rotation player. The big question mark with him is skill development, mostly outside shooting. He showed in college he can hit the 3 consistently, but I can't think of a worse franchise when it comes to developing shooters. We can only hope....

The draw to Okogie is that he is the anti-Wiggins from a visual perspective. He hustles like crazy, and the effort is what we have seemingly locked onto at this point. Because numerically, he isn't very good yet.

It's kind of the way I looked at Wiggins. You want him to be good so badly that you see the positives much more clearly than the negatives. Like i said weeks ago, he's the shiny new toy everyone is interested in. To me his effort is what is most appealing. But he's a little bit of a bull in a China shop and really needs to be developed properly. As always time will tell the tale.

Rather sobering stats, but not surprising given they are all offensive stats (except for steals). I criticize Thibs a lot, but I haven't ripped him too much for not giving Josh a lot of minutes...the kid is a train wreck some days on the offensive side of the court. There have been too many games where he has led or almost led the team in shots per minute (very Bazz-like, by the way), and that is not a formula for winning. I still like him a lot and tend to pay more attention to televised games when Thibs puts him in, but he needs to learn to stay in his lane. Until he develops a reliable shot, he needs to focus on defense, hustle and facilitating, and leave the outside shooting to his teammates.