Minnesota Sports Forum

In Bill Simmons podcast he talked with Brian Windhorst and they described Boston's situation last summer and Philly situation their summer as their window for acquiring salary and talent both to improve their team and to set up future moves.

https://www.theringer.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/2018/5/2/17312412/lebron-believes-again-phillys-big-test-and-a-chaotic-summer-coming-with-brian-windhorst

Last summer was our window, and I can't see how Thibs could have done a more masterful job in taking advantage of our window of opportunity. This criticism of our focus being too much on "winning now" is crazy in my mind. You always just want to improve your assets and we've done that. Outside of unrealistic scenarios (i.e doing everything right that was against the grain like finding a way to draft and keep Donovan Mitchell on top of our moves), we have a mix of various value contracts that are high enough monetarily to acquire a disgruntled star or multiple plug and play assets. Teague and Taj are great contracts because of their length, if Teague needed to be packaged in a deal he is a positive player that has 2 years left on his deal. Spending less last Summer would have been a long term disaster because we would have been out of the trade conversation for players making 10-20 million dollars moving forward. Now we can be in the game as a 3rd team or directly if a team values Teague. The Gorgui contract is Thibs only mistake that I can see as a GM so far, and I can still even see us improving our team via trading him. And to be fair Gorgui regressed to make that contract bad. To me the reality about the NBA for the past 20 years is that there are always teams looking to get worse. So until there is a legitimate effort to curb tanking that isn't just lip service, a team like us looking to improve and contend will always have opportunity. Last summer I still give Thibs a solid A for his moves, based on that I have high expectations for continued creativity in improving this team.

Thibs probably deserves an A- strictly for the Butler and Gibson moves alone. I believe nearly 100% of our improvement is on the shoulders of those two players.

I don't follow capology too closely so I will take your word for it in terms of how much Thibs spent. I guess I was less concerned last offseason with the amount spent and more concerned about the who. I thought he overpaid for Gibson (I was wrong), unnecessarily churned out Rubio for a more expensive PG (I think that ended up being a wash); and signed an aging no-defense shot hog in Crawford (I was right about that one).

But perhaps his two biggest mistakes that has yet to really play out were signing Wiggins to a max deal and drafting Justin Patton. The jury is still out, but I think it's fair to say that both of these assets are worth less now on the open market than they were one year ago.

Q12543 wrote:Thibs probably deserves an A- strictly for the Butler and Gibson moves alone. I believe nearly 100% of our improvement is on the shoulders of those two players.

I don't follow capology too closely so I will take your word for it in terms of how much Thibs spent. I guess I was less concerned last offseason with the amount spent and more concerned about the who. I thought he overpaid for Gibson (I was wrong), unnecessarily churned out Rubio for a more expensive PG (I think that ended up being a wash); and signed an aging no-defense shot hog in Crawford (I was right about that one).

But perhaps his two biggest mistakes that has yet to really play out were signing Wiggins to a max deal and drafting Justin Patton. The jury is still out, but I think it's fair to say that both of these assets are worth less now on the open market than they were one year ago.

Maybe, maybe not. Hypothetical mistakes shouldn't really be part of judging performance. Wiggins just needs to make shots, if he does he'll be MIP. I think there are a long list of players who have increased their offensive efficiency. I'm confident Wiggins will follow suit. With Patton it is a bit disappointing, but everyone praised the pick at the time. Anytime a big struggles with foot injuries it's a bad sign.

Well, they might by hypothetical mistakes when looking at it long-term, but let's just say the 1st quarter report card is a D at best. Wiggins massively underachieved as a 4th year player about ready to enter into a max contract. No one can convince me otherwise - the numbers are damning.

And Patton didn't contribute squat and seemed to get worse as the season wore on in the G-league.

I hope I'm wrong on both accounts - starting next season - but the early returns are pretty crappy IMO.

Q12543 wrote:Well, they might by hypothetical mistakes when looking at it long-term, but let's just say the 1st quarter report card is a D at best. Wiggins massively underachieved as a 4th year player about ready to enter into a max contract. No one can convince me otherwise - the numbers are damning.

And Patton didn't contribute squat and seemed to get worse as the season wore on in the G-league.

I hope I'm wrong on both accounts - starting next season - but the early returns are pretty crappy IMO.

So the grade on performance relative to earning is based on future earning? The contract was a long term play, signed based on projected improvement over his time here. I think that everyone acknowledges Wiggins needs to improve. Hope the shots go in for everyone involved.

thedoper wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Well, they might by hypothetical mistakes when looking at it long-term, but let's just say the 1st quarter report card is a D at best. Wiggins massively underachieved as a 4th year player about ready to enter into a max contract. No one can convince me otherwise - the numbers are damning.

And Patton didn't contribute squat and seemed to get worse as the season wore on in the G-league.

I hope I'm wrong on both accounts - starting next season - but the early returns are pretty crappy IMO.

So the grade on performance relative to earning is based on future earning? The contract was a long term play, signed based on projected improvement over his time here. I think that everyone acknowledges Wiggins needs to improve. Hope the shots go in for everyone involved.

In Wiggins' case that is absolutely the case because he signed the deal before the season began, thus any value of Wiggins as an asset has to include the future cash outlays required to pay him. Based on that, his performance in the current year undermined his value.

But heck, if you just remove contract from the picture entirely, he wasn't good on an absolute basis either!

You know I have been on your side in this argument from the beginning Doper. We had one offseason that we had cap space going forward and that was last offseason. Even if we didn't do the Butler trade, Lavine and Wiggins extensions either way so we would not have cap space this offseason.

The only thing I could see Thibs doing as bad was the Gorgui extension (I thought it was good at the time) and that is only because when we did it. You shouldn't extend role players when there extension is up as a general rule. If we didn't extend Gorgui I am guessing he would have signed close to 8 mil a year like Jamychal Green did this offseason. Allowing us to sign CJ Miles. But all in all CJ Miles was not the difference between us contending this season and not.

Now I can see why the Wiggins extention is bad. I will also agree that he has not played like a max player. I would say though it was a risk for whatever Thibs decided to do. Here were Thibs options could have extended him like he did (and hope he lives up to the contract), Let him walk this offseason (Wolves would of had approx. 13 mil to fill the whole wiggins left, that includes renouncing the rights of Belly, Jamal opting out and cutting Cole). Waiting to the offseason and Wiggins gets the max anyways from another team and we match via RFA (Same result as we have currently as Wiggins but also teams can add annoying wording in players contracts like the Kings or Nets "can't remember what team did with Otto Porter). Or we could of let him hit RFA, he does not get the max, lets say he gets approx 20 mil a year (we still would have no cap space and we run the risk if Wiggins does hit is potential he will want out the first chance he gets like Love and Hayward did because they felt disrespected.)


In the end stars win games in this league, we need our players to hit star status. Hopefully they can do that. I still am worried that we have no backdoor plan if they don't hit their potential. But all in all it comes down to development of Kat and Wiggins or getting lucky in the Draft.

kekgeek1 wrote:You know I have been on your side in this argument from the beginning Doper. We had one offseason that we had cap space going forward and that was last offseason. Even if we didn't do the Butler trade, Lavine and Wiggins extensions either way so we would not have cap space this offseason.

The only thing I could see Thibs doing as bad was the Gorgui extension (I thought it was good at the time) and that is only because when we did it. You shouldn't extend role players when there extension is up as a general rule. If we didn't extend Gorgui I am guessing he would have signed close to 8 mil a year like Jamychal Green did this offseason. Allowing us to sign CJ Miles. But all in all CJ Miles was not the difference between us contending this season and not.

Now I can see why the Wiggins extention is bad. I will also agree that he has not played like a max player. I would say though it was a risk for whatever Thibs decided to do. Here were Thibs options could have extended him like he did (and hope he lives up to the contract), Let him walk this offseason (Wolves would of had approx. 13 mil to fill the whole wiggins left, that includes renouncing the rights of Belly, Jamal opting out and cutting Cole). Waiting to the offseason and Wiggins gets the max anyways from another team and we match via RFA (Same result as we have currently as Wiggins but also teams can add annoying wording in players contracts like the Kings or Nets "can't remember what team did with Otto Porter). Or we could of let him hit RFA, he does not get the max, lets say he gets approx 20 mil a year (we still would have no cap space and we run the risk if Wiggins does hit is potential he will want out the first chance he gets like Love and Hayward did because they felt disrespected.)


In the end stars win games in this league, we need our players to hit star status. Hopefully they can do that. I still am worried that we have no backdoor plan if they don't hit their potential. But all in all it comes down to development of Kat and Wiggins or getting lucky in the Draft.

If we're counting on "getting lucky" in the draft, we're in big trouble. I actually agree with you on this summer's draft as one way the Wolves might improve. My point is that it's time we stopped counting on luck. Luck is for rubes. We should expect more than luck from the highly paid supposed experts in the Wolves front office.

lipoli390 wrote:

kekgeek1 wrote:You know I have been on your side in this argument from the beginning Doper. We had one offseason that we had cap space going forward and that was last offseason. Even if we didn't do the Butler trade, Lavine and Wiggins extensions either way so we would not have cap space this offseason.

The only thing I could see Thibs doing as bad was the Gorgui extension (I thought it was good at the time) and that is only because when we did it. You shouldn't extend role players when there extension is up as a general rule. If we didn't extend Gorgui I am guessing he would have signed close to 8 mil a year like Jamychal Green did this offseason. Allowing us to sign CJ Miles. But all in all CJ Miles was not the difference between us contending this season and not.

Now I can see why the Wiggins extention is bad. I will also agree that he has not played like a max player. I would say though it was a risk for whatever Thibs decided to do. Here were Thibs options could have extended him like he did (and hope he lives up to the contract), Let him walk this offseason (Wolves would of had approx. 13 mil to fill the whole wiggins left, that includes renouncing the rights of Belly, Jamal opting out and cutting Cole). Waiting to the offseason and Wiggins gets the max anyways from another team and we match via RFA (Same result as we have currently as Wiggins but also teams can add annoying wording in players contracts like the Kings or Nets "can't remember what team did with Otto Porter). Or we could of let him hit RFA, he does not get the max, lets say he gets approx 20 mil a year (we still would have no cap space and we run the risk if Wiggins does hit is potential he will want out the first chance he gets like Love and Hayward did because they felt disrespected.)


In the end stars win games in this league, we need our players to hit star status. Hopefully they can do that. I still am worried that we have no backdoor plan if they don't hit their potential. But all in all it comes down to development of Kat and Wiggins or getting lucky in the Draft.

If we're counting on "getting lucky" in the draft, we're in big trouble. I actually agree with you on this summer's draft as one way the Wolves might improve. My point is that it's time we stopped counting on luck. Luck is for rubes. We should expect more than luck from the highly paid supposed experts in the Wolves front office.

Maybe Luck is the wrong word. I am just saying all of the teams that are playing got a huge piece late in the draft.

Sixers: Covington
Jazz: Gobert, Ingles off the street, traded a late pick to move up to late lottery to pick Mitchell
Rockets: Capela, Also used late picks in Decker and Harrell to help the trade go through to get Paul
Warriors: Green
Pelicans: One of the few teams that I can't think of a player
Celtics: Rozier, Ojelye
Raptors: Almost there whole bench
Cavs: Use a lot of there late picks to acquire there team in, Korver, Hill, Nance, Clarkson.

Even look at other big players in the NBA.

Greek Freak, Millsap, Jokic, PG13, Leonard, Ginobili, Parker, Kuzma, IT

I think there is luck involved getting these players in the late lotto to the 2nd round, I bet you could ask almost all these GMs and say I didn't think they were going to be that good. You are right there is a skill set to draft a good player later in the draft, IMO think there is a lot of luck in getting a special player late.

kekgeek1 wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

kekgeek1 wrote:You know I have been on your side in this argument from the beginning Doper. We had one offseason that we had cap space going forward and that was last offseason. Even if we didn't do the Butler trade, Lavine and Wiggins extensions either way so we would not have cap space this offseason.

The only thing I could see Thibs doing as bad was the Gorgui extension (I thought it was good at the time) and that is only because when we did it. You shouldn't extend role players when there extension is up as a general rule. If we didn't extend Gorgui I am guessing he would have signed close to 8 mil a year like Jamychal Green did this offseason. Allowing us to sign CJ Miles. But all in all CJ Miles was not the difference between us contending this season and not.

Now I can see why the Wiggins extention is bad. I will also agree that he has not played like a max player. I would say though it was a risk for whatever Thibs decided to do. Here were Thibs options could have extended him like he did (and hope he lives up to the contract), Let him walk this offseason (Wolves would of had approx. 13 mil to fill the whole wiggins left, that includes renouncing the rights of Belly, Jamal opting out and cutting Cole). Waiting to the offseason and Wiggins gets the max anyways from another team and we match via RFA (Same result as we have currently as Wiggins but also teams can add annoying wording in players contracts like the Kings or Nets "can't remember what team did with Otto Porter). Or we could of let him hit RFA, he does not get the max, lets say he gets approx 20 mil a year (we still would have no cap space and we run the risk if Wiggins does hit is potential he will want out the first chance he gets like Love and Hayward did because they felt disrespected.)


In the end stars win games in this league, we need our players to hit star status. Hopefully they can do that. I still am worried that we have no backdoor plan if they don't hit their potential. But all in all it comes down to development of Kat and Wiggins or getting lucky in the Draft.

If we're counting on "getting lucky" in the draft, we're in big trouble. I actually agree with you on this summer's draft as one way the Wolves might improve. My point is that it's time we stopped counting on luck. Luck is for rubes. We should expect more than luck from the highly paid supposed experts in the Wolves front office.

Maybe Luck is the wrong word. I am just saying all of the teams that are playing got a huge piece late in the draft.

Sixers: Covington
Jazz: Gobert, Ingles off the street, traded a late pick to move up to late lottery to pick Mitchell
Rockets: Capela, Also used late picks in Decker and Harrell to help the trade go through to get Paul
Warriors: Green
Pelicans: One of the few teams that I can't think of a player
Celtics: Rozier, Ojelye
Raptors: Almost there whole bench
Cavs: Use a lot of there late picks to acquire there team in, Korver, Hill, Nance, Clarkson.

Even look at other big players in the NBA.

Greek Freak, Millsap, Jokic, PG13, Leonard, Ginobili, Parker, Kuzma, IT

I think there is luck involved getting these players in the late lotto to the 2nd round, I bet you could ask almost all these GMs and say I didn't think they were going to be that good. You are right there is a skill set to draft a good player later in the draft, IMO think there is a lot of luck in getting a special player late.

I think we generally agree. There's always an element of luck, but you don't hire people in any organization to be lucky. You hire people for their skill and judgment and you expect results. The Wolves pay a lot of money to Thibodeau, Layden and a host of other front office staff and scouts. They should be expected to deliver using their skills and judgment. I didn't know the Greak Freak would be a good as he's become, but I suspected he could be this good and when you're in rebuilding mode, he was clealy the better choice over Bazz in my judgment. Flip and his team judged wrong. Millsap was college basketball's best rebounder and rebounding has long been understood as a stat that generally translates from college to the NBA. I remember thinking that he was a gift waiting for a taker the moment he slipped into the 2nd round. Alas, the Wolves and many other teams let him slip by.

I don't know if the teams that drafted the other guys you mentioned thought they'd be as good as they've been, but I'm sure they had good reason for drafting them based on their analysis and judgment. Luck? Maybe. Good judgment? Absolutely. Or perhaps the Spurs have some sort of lucky charm that worked its magic when they drafted Manu, Parker, Hill, Leonard and Murray. Hmm, I wonder. Losers wait for luck and defend mediocrity. We've been losers too long as Wolves fans. We need to start demanding a lot more from this organization. That's where I'm at.

So don't get me wrong. I'm not really disagreeing with or criticizing your view. I'm just fed up with this organization (not just Thibodeau) and I want the owner and fans to demand and expect more. I'll take the 48-win season as a positive, in spite of all the unacceptable losses when Jimmy and all our other players were healthy, in spite of being one of the League's worst defensive teams and in spite of being the League's worst in made three-pointers. But I expect this past season to serve as a floor for better things to come. We should all expect that and be intollerant of anything less.