Minnesota Sports Forum

I know the topic of trading Bazz for a late first (20-30) so I wanted to do some research to see what we could expect from the late first round pick. So I went back and looked at every draft since 2010 to see what players I believe are better than Bazz in the 20-30 range. The Bold players are who I believe are better (I know this is subjective) this also has nothing to do with the players current contract.

2010: James Anderson, Craig Brackins, Elliot Williams, Trevor Booker, Damion James, Dominique Jones, Quincy Pondexter, Jordan Crawford, Grevis Vasquez, Daniel Orton, Lazar Hayward. (I would say none of these players are better than Shabazz, arguments can be made for Pondexter/Booker/Vasquez)

2011: Dontas Montiejunas, Nolan Smith, Kenneth Faried, Nikola Mirotic, Reggie Jackson, Marshon Brooks, Jordan Hamilton, JaJuan Johnson, Norris Cole, Corey Joseph, Jimmy Butler (Really good class here, I think you can argue Bazz is better than Mirotic but I will go Mirotic for now)


2012: Evan Fournier, Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo, John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten, Miles Plumlee, Arnett Moultrie, Perry Jones, Marquies Teague, Festus Ezeli

2013: Tony Snell, Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Solomon Hill, Tim Hardaway Jr, Reggie Bullock, Andre Roberson, Rudy Gobert, Livio Jean Charles, Archie Goodwin, Nemanja Nedovic

2014: Bruno Caboclo, Mitch Mcgary, Jordan Adam, Rodney Hood, Shapazz Napier, Clint Capela, PJ Hairston, Bogdan Bogdanovic, CJ Wilcox, Josh Huertas, Kyle Anderson. (I think Clint Capela and Kyle Anderson are close calls but for this case I will give it to not Shabazz.

2015: Delon Wright, Justin Anderson, Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis Jefferson, Tyus Jones, Jarnell Martin, Nikola Milutinov, Larry Nance JR, RJ Hunter, Chris McCullough, Kevin Looney (I do believe that Shabazz is better than Portis but I dont want to be eaten alive by the Portis lovers)

So in all 66 players were drafted in the last 6 drafts between picks 20-30. I had 18 out of the 66 being better than Shabazz for 27% and I game a few that I thought were close so it could be lower than that.

I think there was 5 all star potential players that were drafted in that range (Gobert, Butler, Hood, Faried, Reggie Jackson) so 8%.

So my question is, is it worth trading Bazz for a pick that over the last few years would be 27% chance of being better than him and a 8% chance of hitting an all star caliber player (I am being kind to Hood, Faried and Jackson). So there a 73% chance that we would be stuck with a player that would be worse than Shabazz and a guy taking up a roster spot even though it is a cheaper contract.

I understand the thought of trading Shabazz because will he be worth the contract that he will get on the open market and that question I don't know the answer to. But I am not sure I am willing to trade Shabazz with the 27% hope we get a better role player than him. I would almost rather let him walk and add a player via FA to improve the weaknesses that the roster shows next year. Who knows Bazz might improve a lot under Thibs and he might be worth the money he will get year, I just don't know if I want to gamble with a late 1st round pick.

kekgeek1 wrote:I know the topic of trading Bazz for a late first (20-30) so I wanted to do some research to see what we could expect from the late first round pick. So I went back and looked at every draft since 2010 to see what players I believe are better than Bazz in the 20-30 range. The Bold players are who I believe are better (I know this is subjective) this also has nothing to do with the players current contract.

2010: James Anderson, Craig Brackins, Elliot Williams, Trevor Booker, Damion James, Dominique Jones, Quincy Pondexter, Jordan Crawford, Grevis Vasquez, Daniel Orton, Lazar Hayward. (I would say none of these players are better than Shabazz, arguments can be made for Pondexter/Booker/Vasquez)

2011: Dontas Montiejunas, Nolan Smith, Kenneth Faried, Nikola Mirotic, Reggie Jackson, Marshon Brooks, Jordan Hamilton, JaJuan Johnson, Norris Cole, Corey Joseph, Jimmy Butler (Really good class here, I think you can argue Bazz is better than Mirotic but I will go Mirotic for now)


2012: Evan Fournier, Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo, John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten, Miles Plumlee, Arnett Moultrie, Perry Jones, Marquies Teague, Festus Ezeli

2013: Tony Snell, Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Solomon Hill, Tim Hardaway Jr, Reggie Bullock, Andre Roberson, Rudy Gobert, Livio Jean Charles, Archie Goodwin, Nemanja Nedovic

2014: Bruno Caboclo, Mitch Mcgary, Jordan Adam, Rodney Hood, Shapazz Napier, Clint Capela, PJ Hairston, Bogdan Bogdanovic, CJ Wilcox, Josh Huertas, Kyle Anderson. (I think Clint Capela and Kyle Anderson are close calls but for this case I will give it to not Shabazz.

2015: Delon Wright, Justin Anderson, Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis Jefferson, Tyus Jones, Jarnell Martin, Nikola Milutinov, Larry Nance JR, RJ Hunter, Chris McCullough, Kevin Looney (I do believe that Shabazz is better than Portis but I dont want to be eaten alive by the Portis lovers)

So in all 66 players were drafted in the last 6 drafts between picks 20-30. I had 18 out of the 66 being better than Shabazz for 27% and I game a few that I thought were close so it could be lower than that.

I think there was 5 all star potential players that were drafted in that range (Gobert, Butler, Hood, Faried, Reggie Jackson) so 8%.

So my question is, is it worth trading Bazz for a pick that over the last few years would be 27% chance of being better than him and a 8% chance of hitting an all star caliber player (I am being kind to Hood, Faried and Jackson). So there a 73% chance that we would be stuck with a player that would be worse than Shabazz and a guy taking up a roster spot even though it is a cheaper contract.

I understand the thought of trading Shabazz because will he be worth the contract that he will get on the open market and that question I don't know the answer to. But I am not sure I am willing to trade Shabazz with the 27% hope we get a better role player than him. I would almost rather let him walk and add a player via FA to improve the weaknesses that the roster shows next year. Who knows Bazz might improve a lot under Thibs and he might be worth the money he will get year, I just don't know if I want to gamble with a late 1st round pick.

You missed Rondae Hollis Jefferson, he's clearly better than Bazz and I believe several others could be better including Delon Wright and others in the last two draft classes. Also, there are several that are probably similar in value like Tony Snell. There are some other points that support trading Bazz.. First, the picks 20-30 in this draft are deeper than normal and if you focus on a top 25 pick, which is what I'd ideally want the odds rise. Bazz will get paid much more than the rookie. Finally, for what we would have to pay to keep Bazz we could sign another free agent that is a better fit for the club. I am 100% in the camp of trading Bazz for a first rounder.

TeamRicky wrote:

kekgeek1 wrote:I know the topic of trading Bazz for a late first (20-30) so I wanted to do some research to see what we could expect from the late first round pick. So I went back and looked at every draft since 2010 to see what players I believe are better than Bazz in the 20-30 range. The Bold players are who I believe are better (I know this is subjective) this also has nothing to do with the players current contract.

2010: James Anderson, Craig Brackins, Elliot Williams, Trevor Booker, Damion James, Dominique Jones, Quincy Pondexter, Jordan Crawford, Grevis Vasquez, Daniel Orton, Lazar Hayward. (I would say none of these players are better than Shabazz, arguments can be made for Pondexter/Booker/Vasquez)

2011: Dontas Montiejunas, Nolan Smith, Kenneth Faried, Nikola Mirotic, Reggie Jackson, Marshon Brooks, Jordan Hamilton, JaJuan Johnson, Norris Cole, Corey Joseph, Jimmy Butler (Really good class here, I think you can argue Bazz is better than Mirotic but I will go Mirotic for now)


2012: Evan Fournier, Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo, John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten, Miles Plumlee, Arnett Moultrie, Perry Jones, Marquies Teague, Festus Ezeli

2013: Tony Snell, Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Solomon Hill, Tim Hardaway Jr, Reggie Bullock, Andre Roberson, Rudy Gobert, Livio Jean Charles, Archie Goodwin, Nemanja Nedovic

2014: Bruno Caboclo, Mitch Mcgary, Jordan Adam, Rodney Hood, Shapazz Napier, Clint Capela, PJ Hairston, Bogdan Bogdanovic, CJ Wilcox, Josh Huertas, Kyle Anderson. (I think Clint Capela and Kyle Anderson are close calls but for this case I will give it to not Shabazz.

2015: Delon Wright, Justin Anderson, Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis Jefferson, Tyus Jones, Jarnell Martin, Nikola Milutinov, Larry Nance JR, RJ Hunter, Chris McCullough, Kevin Looney (I do believe that Shabazz is better than Portis but I dont want to be eaten alive by the Portis lovers)

So in all 66 players were drafted in the last 6 drafts between picks 20-30. I had 18 out of the 66 being better than Shabazz for 27% and I game a few that I thought were close so it could be lower than that.

I think there was 5 all star potential players that were drafted in that range (Gobert, Butler, Hood, Faried, Reggie Jackson) so 8%.

So my question is, is it worth trading Bazz for a pick that over the last few years would be 27% chance of being better than him and a 8% chance of hitting an all star caliber player (I am being kind to Hood, Faried and Jackson). So there a 73% chance that we would be stuck with a player that would be worse than Shabazz and a guy taking up a roster spot even though it is a cheaper contract.

I understand the thought of trading Shabazz because will he be worth the contract that he will get on the open market and that question I don't know the answer to. But I am not sure I am willing to trade Shabazz with the 27% hope we get a better role player than him. I would almost rather let him walk and add a player via FA to improve the weaknesses that the roster shows next year. Who knows Bazz might improve a lot under Thibs and he might be worth the money he will get year, I just don't know if I want to gamble with a late 1st round pick.

You missed Rondae Hollis Jefferson, he's clearly better than Bazz and I believe several others could be better including Delon Wright and others in the last two draft classes. Also, there are several that are probably similar in value like Tony Snell. There are two points that I don't think you addressed that make trading Bazz a better proposition. First, the picks 20-30 are deeper than normal and you have a chance for a quality player. Another thing you miss is that even if we get equal value, Bazz will get paid much more than the rookie. I am 100% in the camp of trading Bazz for first rounder.

So you are saying that Delon Wright and Hollis Jefferson (who I do like) are better than Bazz when combined they played a grand total of 38 games this year. I just cant give them better than Bazz. You are making an assumption that this draft class is deeper, who knows it is a crap shoot every year we say the same thing this is deep class because we all get excited that a player can change the outlook of a franchise. What happens if we end up with a player like Marquis Teague, or Hayward or Damion James or Nedvoic we are wasting a roster spot that is guaranteed contract.

Good breakdown. Let's go back to that 2010 class. I remember the old ESPN board had various posters were pretty big fans of guys that were picked in that range. I remember a lot of us really liked James Anderson especially as a guy picked outside of the lottery. The funny thing bout that was he turned out to be basically the only guy the Spurs have missed on in years. Lol

I bring that up because a lot of smart posters here we're excited about players 6 years ago and basically none of them (except Pondexter) ended up being more than fringe NBA talents. That was poor year for that range though bit it's a fun look back anyway and see how sometimes we can overvalue some guys.

Interestingly the in the next 5 picks from that year involves 2 international players that were rookies in the NBA this season Pliess and Bjelica. Another guy (Whiteside) in that range is getting ready to count some bills after he gets big contract this offseason.

So you are saying that Delon Wright and Hollis Jefferson (who I do like) are better than Bazz when combined they played a grand total of 38 games this year. I just cant give them better than Bazz. You are making an assumption that this draft class is deeper, who knows it is a crap shoot every year we say the same thing this is deep class because we all get excited that a player can change the outlook of a franchise. What happens if we end up with a player like Marquis Teague, or Hayward or Damion James or Nedvoic we are wasting a roster spot that is guaranteed contract.

RHJ is a much more valuable commodity than Bazz. I would think 30 of 30 GMs would prefer having RHJ to Bazz. I never view the draft as a crapshoot. Its not rocket science. You look at everything and make educated projections. Sure there are surprises, but its not a crapshoot.

monsterpile wrote:Good breakdown. Let's go back to that 2010 class. I remember the old ESPN board had various posters were pretty big fans of guys that were picked in that range. I remember a lot of us really liked James Anderson especially as a guy picked outside of the lottery. The funny thing bout that was he turned out to be basically the only guy the Spurs have missed on in years. Lol

I bring that up because a lot of smart posters here we're excited about players 6 years ago and basically none of them (except Pondexter) ended up being more than fringe NBA talents. That was poor year for that range though bit it's a fun look back anyway and see how sometimes we can overvalue some guys.

Interestingly the in the next 5 picks from that year involves 2 international players that were rookies in the NBA this season Pliess and Bjelica. Another guy (Whiteside) in that range is getting ready to count some bills after he gets big contract this offseason.

Haha, thanks, that was my main point is that we don't know what we are going to get if we trade for a late first round pick more often than not the player will not be an NBA talent. I know shabazz has some NBA skills in post scoring/offensive rebounding/Hustle/Cutting. I know Shabazz has his faults they are pretty obvious but I just think the odds are low that we add anyone equal or more valuable than shabazz so that is why I let him play out his contract and make a decision from there, I mean we have his bird rights the decision is in our court.

kekgeek1 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Good breakdown. Let's go back to that 2010 class. I remember the old ESPN board had various posters were pretty big fans of guys that were picked in that range. I remember a lot of us really liked James Anderson especially as a guy picked outside of the lottery. The funny thing bout that was he turned out to be basically the only guy the Spurs have missed on in years. Lol

I bring that up because a lot of smart posters here we're excited about players 6 years ago and basically none of them (except Pondexter) ended up being more than fringe NBA talents. That was poor year for that range though bit it's a fun look back anyway and see how sometimes we can overvalue some guys.

Interestingly the in the next 5 picks from that year involves 2 international players that were rookies in the NBA this season Pliess and Bjelica. Another guy (Whiteside) in that range is getting ready to count some bills after he gets big contract this offseason.

Haha, thanks, that was my main point is that we don't know what we are going to get if we trade for a late first round pick more often than not the player will not be an NBA talent. I know shabazz has some NBA skills in post scoring/offensive rebounding/Hustle/Cutting. I know Shabazz has his faults they are pretty obvious but I just think the odds are low that we add anyone equal or more valuable than shabazz so that is why I let him play out his contract and make a decision from there, I mean we have his bird rights the decision is in our court.

Let me describe my position this way. I am not a big fan of Bazz as he plays poor defense and kills ball control. I view him as addition by subtraction. It would be nice to find some team who values his scoring to cough up an asset. If the mock drafts are any indication there will be some decent players that I think can fit what this team needs late in the first round.

Larry Nance Jr. and McGary definitely have more value around the league and arguments can be made for Plumlee, but I get your point, and it is a valid point. But, I just don't see Shabazz's fit on a winning basketball team, especially this one. He plays no defense, clogs the lane, and can't make a three pointer

northernhoops wrote:Larry Nance Jr. and McGary definitely have more value around the league and arguments can be made for Plumlee, but I get your point, and it is a valid point. But, I just don't see Shabazz's fit on a winning basketball team, especially this one. He plays no defense, clogs the lane, and can't make a three pointer

Ya I understand Shabazz weaknesses like I am not even that big of a Shabazz guy and if I had the choice I think I would not pay him in the offseason, I just don't want another roster spot that is filled with dead weight like some of the players that get drafted in the late first round. I want to see how he does under Thibs, Im curios because he does have some NBA skill set now is it a winning skill set I do not know but there is 0 promise that we add a player that has 1 above average NBA skill set.

PS: I thought about Larry Nance it was close and the reason I didn't do McGary he is super injury prone and it is not like he is that good in the first place but I respect your opinion on the matter like I said above some people are going to disagree with who I said I believe is better.

northernhoops wrote:Larry Nance Jr. and McGary definitely have more value around the league and arguments can be made for Plumlee, but I get your point, and it is a valid point. But, I just don't see Shabazz's fit on a winning basketball team, especially this one. He plays no defense, clogs the lane, and can't make a three pointer

Bazz has shot over 40% on corner 3's the past 2 years.