Early Season evaluation: Andrew Wiggins
Posted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:11 pm
Overview - As we all know, Andrew Wiggins was the featured asset in the Love trade. He went from potentially winning a title as a role player for the Cavs to potentially winning 15 games as a featured player for the Wolves, yay! Despite the lack of team success, he's clearly getting more minutes and touches than he ever would have received in Cleveland. Although in hindsight, he would not look bad as the defensive specialist in the starting lineup, guarding the opposing team's best wing and scoring opportunistically off of the playmaking of Love, LeBron, and Irving. The Cavs have shoe-horned Shawn Marion into that role instead. But I digress.....
Offense - Andrew Wiggins has struggled offensively so far, despite (or may be because of?) Flip spoon feeding him shots in isolation sets either at the elbow or low box. His 47 TS% is quite poor for an NBA wing and this is despite getting to the line a fair amount. But let's start with the good before breaking down the bad.
Wiggins' length and vertical allow him to rise up on just about anyone and get a clean shot off. He has very good form and a high release point, although he sometimes looks a bit stiff, almost as if he's trying to steer the shot in. He has shot 36% from 16 feet out to the 3 point arc and 37% from beyond the 3 point arc. Those numbers are actually not half bad, and combined with his solid form, I have to believe over time he will only get better.
Wiggins also has a quick first step, especially going to his right, which is by far his preferred path. We have seen him a number of times beat guys baseline going to his right. When he does this he has the ability to hang in the air and draw contact, sometimes getting the "and 1". As a result, his free throw rate is decent (5 FTAs per 36 minutes). When he gets stymied going right, he has a decent spin move to the left. The problem is defenders know this now and he's increasingly getting his pocket picked as opponents wait on it.
Where Wiggins struggles is in getting all the way to the basket using any other type of move that requires advanced handles or craftiness. Has anyone ever seen Wiggins do a crossover? Or how about a hesitation/change-of-pace move? He certainly has the body control and verticality to be an elite finisher and foul-drawer, but he needs to add a couple of other tricks in his bag. Having that quick first step is certainly a great start. Flip is increasingly trying to get Wiggins the ball closer to the basket, hoping that his post-up game will show more success than his face-up game.
Another area Wiggins needs to improve in - and this is seemingly the area that should be his strength - is moving without the ball. Of all our wings, he is assisted on the fewest % of his baskets. Keep in mind those other guys are playing without Rubio too! There are probably five or six times a game we see Muhammed and/or Brewer make either a basket cut (in halfcourt sets) or fill the lane (in fastbreak situations) that results in an easy layup or dunk. How often do you see Andrew Wiggins - the son of an Olympic sprinter - go all out to beat his man down the floor? The answer is almost never. One of the most athletic players in the NBA has 13 dunks so far this season. Brewer has 14, and he's borderline old by NBA standards. Shabazz has 24 and he's played nearly 300 fewer minutes!
The result of all this is that Wiggins really has to labor for his points, taking a lot of contested mid-range 2's either out of face-up or post-up isolation plays. If we weren't so short handed offensively, I'd recommend that Flip just stop running plays for Wiggins and tell him to go create his own opportunities to score and stop spoon-feeding him the ball. His percentages would look so much better if he just created better opportunities for himself while without the ball (this includes his anemic offensive rebounding as well - Corey Brewer averages more O-boards than Wiggins. How is that possible!?).
Defense - From the beginning, Wiggins has been assigned the opposing team's best wing starter. Through the first 20 games of his career, he's guarded James Harden, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and the list goes on. That's like a who's who of the best wing scorers in the NBA, past and present. That is A LOT to throw at a 19-year old rookie. And overall, he's been stellar.
Wiggins has a unique combination of length, athleticism, and desire to defend. The one component he's missing in my opinion is toughness. He needs to do a better job fighting through screens and being a bit more physical with his opponents, but otherwise, he has everything. He generally plays a disciplined, stout type of defense, without taking unnecessary gambles. Historically, this is how the best defenders play. The one area he needs to get a bit more disciplined in is staying ground-bound. He often plays his man straight-up really well, then falls for the pump fake when they have no where else to go. Guys like Kobe, Wade, Harden, etc. make a living getting guys to leave their feet so that they can jump into them and draw a foul (the official will always give them the benefit of the doubt too). But I'm confident he will get better and better at this.
As a defensive rebounder, Wiggins is averaging only 3.3 defensive rebounds per game. We could really use his help on the boards, yet he hasn't delivered. I actually think Wiggins has some pretty weak hands, as I have often seen him in the area of a rebound, only for it to squirt away from his grasp.
Summary - I love Andrew Wiggins the person. He seems like a really down-to-earth kid - more Kevin Durant than Kobe Bryant. He's already a solid defender that I think will eventually be a great defender (like 1st or 2nd all-defensive team great). What I don't see yet is a superstar in the making. He has a loooong ways to go, both in terms of raw skill development, but also in what I'd call "heart" development. It's not that I think he's totally bereft of desire, but he needs to take it from 3rd to 5th gear. 13 dunks.......I mean c'mon Drew, you can do better than that!
Offense - Andrew Wiggins has struggled offensively so far, despite (or may be because of?) Flip spoon feeding him shots in isolation sets either at the elbow or low box. His 47 TS% is quite poor for an NBA wing and this is despite getting to the line a fair amount. But let's start with the good before breaking down the bad.
Wiggins' length and vertical allow him to rise up on just about anyone and get a clean shot off. He has very good form and a high release point, although he sometimes looks a bit stiff, almost as if he's trying to steer the shot in. He has shot 36% from 16 feet out to the 3 point arc and 37% from beyond the 3 point arc. Those numbers are actually not half bad, and combined with his solid form, I have to believe over time he will only get better.
Wiggins also has a quick first step, especially going to his right, which is by far his preferred path. We have seen him a number of times beat guys baseline going to his right. When he does this he has the ability to hang in the air and draw contact, sometimes getting the "and 1". As a result, his free throw rate is decent (5 FTAs per 36 minutes). When he gets stymied going right, he has a decent spin move to the left. The problem is defenders know this now and he's increasingly getting his pocket picked as opponents wait on it.
Where Wiggins struggles is in getting all the way to the basket using any other type of move that requires advanced handles or craftiness. Has anyone ever seen Wiggins do a crossover? Or how about a hesitation/change-of-pace move? He certainly has the body control and verticality to be an elite finisher and foul-drawer, but he needs to add a couple of other tricks in his bag. Having that quick first step is certainly a great start. Flip is increasingly trying to get Wiggins the ball closer to the basket, hoping that his post-up game will show more success than his face-up game.
Another area Wiggins needs to improve in - and this is seemingly the area that should be his strength - is moving without the ball. Of all our wings, he is assisted on the fewest % of his baskets. Keep in mind those other guys are playing without Rubio too! There are probably five or six times a game we see Muhammed and/or Brewer make either a basket cut (in halfcourt sets) or fill the lane (in fastbreak situations) that results in an easy layup or dunk. How often do you see Andrew Wiggins - the son of an Olympic sprinter - go all out to beat his man down the floor? The answer is almost never. One of the most athletic players in the NBA has 13 dunks so far this season. Brewer has 14, and he's borderline old by NBA standards. Shabazz has 24 and he's played nearly 300 fewer minutes!
The result of all this is that Wiggins really has to labor for his points, taking a lot of contested mid-range 2's either out of face-up or post-up isolation plays. If we weren't so short handed offensively, I'd recommend that Flip just stop running plays for Wiggins and tell him to go create his own opportunities to score and stop spoon-feeding him the ball. His percentages would look so much better if he just created better opportunities for himself while without the ball (this includes his anemic offensive rebounding as well - Corey Brewer averages more O-boards than Wiggins. How is that possible!?).
Defense - From the beginning, Wiggins has been assigned the opposing team's best wing starter. Through the first 20 games of his career, he's guarded James Harden, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and the list goes on. That's like a who's who of the best wing scorers in the NBA, past and present. That is A LOT to throw at a 19-year old rookie. And overall, he's been stellar.
Wiggins has a unique combination of length, athleticism, and desire to defend. The one component he's missing in my opinion is toughness. He needs to do a better job fighting through screens and being a bit more physical with his opponents, but otherwise, he has everything. He generally plays a disciplined, stout type of defense, without taking unnecessary gambles. Historically, this is how the best defenders play. The one area he needs to get a bit more disciplined in is staying ground-bound. He often plays his man straight-up really well, then falls for the pump fake when they have no where else to go. Guys like Kobe, Wade, Harden, etc. make a living getting guys to leave their feet so that they can jump into them and draw a foul (the official will always give them the benefit of the doubt too). But I'm confident he will get better and better at this.
As a defensive rebounder, Wiggins is averaging only 3.3 defensive rebounds per game. We could really use his help on the boards, yet he hasn't delivered. I actually think Wiggins has some pretty weak hands, as I have often seen him in the area of a rebound, only for it to squirt away from his grasp.
Summary - I love Andrew Wiggins the person. He seems like a really down-to-earth kid - more Kevin Durant than Kobe Bryant. He's already a solid defender that I think will eventually be a great defender (like 1st or 2nd all-defensive team great). What I don't see yet is a superstar in the making. He has a loooong ways to go, both in terms of raw skill development, but also in what I'd call "heart" development. It's not that I think he's totally bereft of desire, but he needs to take it from 3rd to 5th gear. 13 dunks.......I mean c'mon Drew, you can do better than that!